WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Glow, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

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Skulk, you're an organised sort of fella
compared to me.

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Look, I mean, compared to me.

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The big smog.

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The big smog.

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You could say to...

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Anyway, I won't go on with that theme.

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Sometimes, though, even an organised
person like yourself, do you ever get

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overwhelmed with what's going on?

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Or do you ever say to yourself, I'm being
numbed by what's going on,

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so I don't take it in anymore?

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And I mean the constant flow of news that
comes from areas that shouldn't really

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concern us.

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In other words, tweets from certain
people.

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Yeah, certain people.

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Let's name and shame.

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Come on.

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You know what I mean.

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You know what I mean.

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I know exactly what you mean.

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No, it's a very, very difficult market.

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I mean, I just read through, I mean, the
S&P 500 opened now.

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And to get an idea, you know, what's
standing out for us.

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And I think the main thing is actually
they're mentioning the optimism and

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why the optimism.

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Well, Trump says the war is, quote, Close
to over, unquote.

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Exactly.

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Exactly right.

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I don't know what to believe.

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I mean, I look at this and I think, are we
going to get the next tweet later tonight

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and say,

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it's not over, we're closing the strait,
and we're bombing the hell out of Iran

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again.

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I don't know.

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I think that's the conundrum we're sitting
with.

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Yet, when you look at the S&P 500, we are
flirting with that 7,000 mark again.

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And, you know, approaching new highs.

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I mean, who would have said?

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I mean, we're sitting with a very tough
market.

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People, you're talking about something, a
possible escalation to a third world war,

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yet S&P 500 is sitting at close to being
all-time highs.

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Crazy, crazy market.

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It really is.

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And I was saying to a commentator, in
fact, I'll name him.

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Name and shame, he said earlier on.

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I'll name him David Shapiro.

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I said to him, David.

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What is it going to take for the market to
actually say, you know what, we're in big

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trouble globally,

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and it doesn't matter whether you're in
Iran, America, or in

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Myanmar. The point is that the world is in
trouble because of oil prices being here

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and the threat of nuclear war,

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and there has been a threat of nuclear
war.

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If the wrong people have got the finger on
the button and certain people have got

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their finger on the button that are the
wrong people,

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something could happen.

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It's a 5% chance.

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But the point is, what will it take for
the market to say, that's it, and I need a

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10%, 15%, 20%

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sell-off?

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I don't want it, but I would have thought
when I first started in the markets all

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those years ago,

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I would have thought this is exactly the
right environment for that sort of

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sell-off to be upon us.

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And it's not.

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I can't understand it.

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Not to call it a sell-off.

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I mean, that's what I'm hearing what
you're saying.

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You're not...

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calling for the market to sell off.

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It's just when you sit in the market, and
there was a few themes over the past,

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let's call it two to three years.

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I think we had the theme that, you know,
the tariff theme,

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and that could put a bit of a dampen on
some of the growth rate, we could see

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inflation.

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I think a massive theme for the past, I
would say close to two years,

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Is individuals calling tops?

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People saying, well, the market, when I
say the market, the S&P 500 is trading at

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elevated,

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not just expensive levels.

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It's elevated levels.

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It's levels that we've last seen in the
2000s. I mean, this is crazy.

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And then you get an environment where
we've got such a geopolitical.

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You're talking about a 5% probability.

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I mean, if we sat here exactly a year ago
and we said, what's the probability of

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this escalating?

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You would have put 2% on it, and the year
before that, it was probably not 1%.

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This is really mind-boggling to sit in

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the difficult geopolitically,

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because we're not just talking about the
US, Israel, and Iran.

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I mean, we're talking about the US,
specifically Trump,

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calling out some of his best trading
partners.

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He's calling NATO names, and NATO is the
like of the UK, Germany,

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those type of countries.

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You're talking about naming and shaming.

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I mean, the names it's been calling, he's
not making friends from yet.

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Hey, yet the U.S.

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market is flirting with 7,000 points.

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I'm not here to understand it.

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I'm just here to caution.

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I think we're not trying to call tops in
this market,

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not trying to call bottoms in the market,
but I would just caution anybody listening

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to this message just to know that this

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It's not over.

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It's an actual fact far from over.

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And one should just know that markets are
not trading at cheap levels.

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You know, when we saw the COVID-19
pandemic happening,

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we had that period between, let's call it
March and June, July-ish, where the market

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retraced

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25-30%. It went from being, ah, it's not
cheap.

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But it went to very, very cheap levels.

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We didn't retrace to cheap levels.

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This wasn't a correction correction.

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Anyway, it is what it is.

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The other thing is that people say, well,
the reason the market's doing well at the

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moment, when I say at the moment, I mean
the last three or four days,

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is because of its earning season in the
United States.

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And the earnings are going to be good.

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And the bank's earnings are going to be
good.

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And I think we saw one bank coming out in
the last 24 hours with, you know, dam

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busting results.

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I mean, it's quite extraordinary numbers.

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And I haven't looked at them, but I would
imagine if someone said, what do you think

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the bank's results are going to be like?

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I'd say, well, they're going to be good.

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Why is that?

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Because the market's been good.

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The market's been going to record highs,
and they've got proprietary trading desks.

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And also, they've been financing AI
structures, AI companies, energy, that

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sort of thing.

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And if you look at the broad set of
earnings of these banks, are they as

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broad?

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As they should be.

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It's like saying the market was up 5% over
the last month.

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Was it a broad-based rally?

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I don't know whether it was.

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I mean, it's that example.

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You'll know better than me what the banks
are up to.

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But I do think it's all slightly skewed,
Skunk.

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I don't think there's, I don't think it's
a reality.

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I don't think the word reality comes
together when it comes to Main Street and

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Wall Street is what I'm saying.

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No, you're 100% right.

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I mean...

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Yeah, it's just mind-boggling.

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We don't need to spend more time on this.

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Yes, the banks brought out stunning
results.

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I mean, wow.

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What results currently used banks, people
that missed it.

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Morgan Stanley, yeah, a whopper, absolute
whopper.

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We had Bank of America also coming out.

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rise in first quarter profits.

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That's also, they were looking quite
upbeat.

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So in general, that is looking good.

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I looked at the latest data that I
received from, that was once the Reuters

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S&P 500 update.

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What they do is, as the companies report,
they run a dashboard to just show, is it a

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beat?

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Is it sort of in line?

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Or was it a miss?

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both in earnings and revenue.

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And then it runs it until it runs through
all 500 companies.

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And it's not a lot of companies that's
reported.

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It's really been, I think, something like
20 or 25 companies.

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Not a lot.

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We just started the earnings season.

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But those companies that reported, you
know, that actually 80%

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of them beat forecast.

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So one can argue that most probably a lot
of...

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economists, or let's call it analysts,
reduced their forecast for the year as we

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went into this,

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let's call it, geopolitical unrest.

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We know before the whole Iran war, we had
Venezuela.

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We had the worries about Greenland.

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So I think a lot of analysts might have
looked at this and said, well, maybe I

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should just reduce my forecast.

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But still, 80% beat thus far.

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This is going to be the interesting one.

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Let's get through this reporting season.

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Just for interest sake, I had a look at it
the other day.

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April month, for interest sake, is the
best month for S&P 500, usually,

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historically.

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Interesting.

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Hmm, April.

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And September's the worst month, and April
is the best month.

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That's very interesting, isn't it?

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Because normally you think October's the
worst month, and I don't know what month.

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I would have thought January or December
would be the best month for the S&P.

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But anyway, that's an interesting one.

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That's one for the I've learned it from
Skulk Notebook, if you like.

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No, 65%.

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65% of the time we see positive months for
the S&P 500.

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But more specifically, the best month on
average usually is April.

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And that's I would say on the back,

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usually April we get the first quarter
reportings.

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And usually it's that's it.

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So it's the first quarter reporting.

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And I think this year is going to be no
different.

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So, yes, let's get through this reporting
season.

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Let's see what Trump does next.

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If the war, as you mentioned, is close to
being over and they get it over the line,

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the straight stay is open.

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Let's see where oil evens out because we
know that inflation is still the biggest

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worry.

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We had the IMF brought out the economic
outlook yesterday,

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and they were sort of muted a little bit.

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Not as optimistic as they've been last
year.

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used to the the world got it come off
somewhat.

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But that didn't dampen the optimism in
markets.

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Markets are going upwards.

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Let's talk about markets now.

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Dollar round is 1637.

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Goodness me, that was above 17.

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Not that long ago, Skunk, with the dollar
being stronger.

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Now the dollar has gone weaker again
because everyone thinks the war is going

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to be over.

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So you don't buy the dollar as a safe
haven asset.

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What a world.

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2222 is the British pound against the
round.

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The euro round is 1932.

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EUR$1.1820.

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The gold price is 4,808. That's not bad.

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After eight minutes of talking, we haven't
mentioned the gold price until now.

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4,808, down two-thirds of a percent.

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The platinum price is up one and a third
percent to 21.28.

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And palladium is down slightly, down half
a percent to 15.83.

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It's very, very quiet today.

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Even markets need to take a breather
sometimes.

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What else have we got here?

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The South African 10-year bond yield,
interesting one, 8.40%.

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Stronger, of course, the yield falling
since the round has started strengthening

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again.

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The U.S.

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10-year yield is 4.28%.

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Still looks vulnerable to me.

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In other words, the yield rising, but
that's me not believing Trump.

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The S&P 500 futures, you mentioned the
spot price floating with 7,000.

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00:12:32.937 --> 00:12:34.719
The futures price, the June price.

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7,027, which is up 0.3% on the day.

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And going back to commodities, I'm doing
it out of order today.

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Crude oil also steadying after a big
sell-off in the last couple of days.

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Brent crude oil, $95.20, which is up 0.4%.

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00:12:53.292 --> 00:12:58.676
And West Texas, $92.45, up 1.25%.

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Bitcoin has had a really good few days.

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Currently down, though, 1.5%.

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to 74,160.

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Earnings season in the US, what's the
earnings season been like in South Africa

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since we last spoke, Skulk?

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00:13:15.338 --> 00:13:15.738
Anything that really stood out for you?

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00:13:17.059 --> 00:13:20.940
I can say nothing because there was no
companies that reported today.

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00:13:21.460 --> 00:13:22.200
Exactly, good.

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00:13:22.900 --> 00:13:23.780
Lovely, I like that.

256
00:13:23.921 --> 00:13:25.601
What about the performers on the JSC?

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00:13:26.861 --> 00:13:27.822
What's been up and down?

258
00:13:27.882 --> 00:13:32.783
Because again, this is a day that we don't
often see, the JSC Top 40 Index.

259
00:13:33.303 --> 00:13:34.824
Down by 0.3%.

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00:13:34.904 --> 00:13:39.746
And when I say we don't see that often,
it's just because the increment of 0.3% is

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00:13:39.746 --> 00:13:39.806
unusual.

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00:13:39.806 --> 00:13:42.287
It's usually much higher or much lower
than that.

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00:13:43.347 --> 00:13:44.047
Yeah.

264
00:13:44.047 --> 00:13:45.929
Yeah, it was a funny day.

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00:13:46.109 --> 00:13:52.011
Because originally when I started the day,
when the market opened,

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00:13:52.952 --> 00:13:55.193
it was quite optimistic and bullish.

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00:13:55.553 --> 00:14:00.815
And it was just as the European markets
opened up.

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00:14:01.847 --> 00:14:03.428
or the UK market opened up,

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00:14:04.108 --> 00:14:09.369
it did lose somewhat of its steam and
ended the day in more negative territory.

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00:14:09.429 --> 00:14:13.730
But in general, I thought it was quite a
stable day, a really stable day.

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00:14:14.651 --> 00:14:20.612
Okay, I've got AlphaMin on the upside of
4.85%, Harmony up 2.8%, Discovery

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00:14:21.092 --> 00:14:26.174
2.2% better, Bytes up 2.4%, Sasol up 1.8%.

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00:14:26.175 --> 00:14:30.395
On the downside, the JSC itself, why is
the JSC down 7%, Skulk?

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00:14:31.843 --> 00:14:36.706
Think about that before I go on to Tungela
down 4.1%, Quilter down

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00:14:37.466 --> 00:14:41.968
3.4%, Anglo Gold down 2.8%,

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00:14:42.008 --> 00:14:46.010
and Goldfields are 2.75%.

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Loser.

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00:14:46.770 --> 00:14:48.571
JSE, XDIV, what?

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00:14:49.456 --> 00:14:56.339
yeah so all of them except uh um
goldfields and angler gold all of them

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00:14:56.339 --> 00:14:58.339
ex-dev scenario and i think on on the

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00:14:58.339 --> 00:15:03.442
on the upside of top top performers i i
don't think you mentioned shop right shop

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00:15:03.442 --> 00:15:05.442
right was in the top five as well yeah
that was that was up

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00:15:05.442 --> 00:15:05.943
that was up 2.2 percent for today okay

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00:15:05.983 --> 00:15:12.926
the other thing uh before we go is um i
need to ask you if you uh joined the

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00:15:13.206 --> 00:15:19.709
crystal challenge the david shapiro's
crystal challenge you know the stock

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00:15:19.709 --> 00:15:21.709
picking competition that he does every
year.

287
00:15:21.709 --> 00:15:23.709
Did you join it this year?

288
00:15:23.709 --> 00:15:25.709
Every year.

289
00:15:25.709 --> 00:15:27.612
Last year I had FOMO that I literally just
missed out.

290
00:15:28.092 --> 00:15:30.833
And this year I sort of went, like, I need
to remember, I need to remember.

291
00:15:30.834 --> 00:15:33.855
And you and I had a conversation about the
crystal.

292
00:15:33.895 --> 00:15:36.336
I think you said you had one or two
companies.

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00:15:36.536 --> 00:15:37.996
You've got two companies in.

294
00:15:37.997 --> 00:15:39.097
Yeah.

295
00:15:39.098 --> 00:15:39.798
You joined it.

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00:15:41.338 --> 00:15:42.038
I entered it.

297
00:15:42.038 --> 00:15:42.999
I just wondered if you entered it as well.

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00:15:43.000 --> 00:15:43.719
You didn't tell me which.

299
00:15:43.819 --> 00:15:44.519
I know.

300
00:15:44.519 --> 00:15:45.079
I know you didn't.

301
00:15:45.080 --> 00:15:46.100
And you're not going to tell us over.

302
00:15:46.660 --> 00:15:47.661
You're not going to tell us either.

303
00:15:48.862 --> 00:15:52.085
But when you mentioned that, I'm like, oh,
no.

304
00:15:53.666 --> 00:15:54.847
I missed it again.

305
00:15:55.068 --> 00:15:57.970
But, yeah, so, yeah, unfortunately missed
it again.

306
00:15:58.030 --> 00:15:59.892
But we'll set a reminder for next year.

307
00:16:00.132 --> 00:16:00.832
Yes, exactly.

308
00:16:00.832 --> 00:16:04.776
I'm going to set a reminder as well for my
application to running the London

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00:16:04.776 --> 00:16:06.776
Marathon.

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00:16:06.776 --> 00:16:08.776
Skulk,

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00:16:08.776 --> 00:16:13.423
I am out of 490 people who are in the
challenge.

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00:16:14.604 --> 00:16:15.405
Why are you laughing?

313
00:16:15.545 --> 00:16:17.167
You're laughing at me now, aren't you?

314
00:16:17.287 --> 00:16:19.589
Guess where I am.

315
00:16:21.610 --> 00:16:24.513
My goal was to be in the top 10 or the
bottom 10.

316
00:16:25.314 --> 00:16:27.576
I don't want to be in the middle with
everybody else.

317
00:16:28.536 --> 00:16:32.860
I think you had quite a great feel for the
market this year.

318
00:16:33.300 --> 00:16:38.225
So I'm going to be guessing you're going
to be closer to that top 10, if not in the

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00:16:38.225 --> 00:16:38.305
top 10,

320
00:16:38.665 --> 00:16:41.908
than at the bottom because you had quite
a...

321
00:16:42.132 --> 00:16:46.335
quite a few good calls out of 490
companies i'm number 386

322
00:16:49.837 --> 00:16:56.202
that's companies people so for all the
listeners out there do what lindsey said

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00:16:56.202 --> 00:16:58.202
don't do what lindsey do

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00:16:58.202 --> 00:17:04.087
skulk low is uh we won't mention golf
skulk low is a portfolio manager at psg

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00:17:04.087 --> 00:17:06.087
wealth old

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00:17:06.087 --> 00:17:10.272
oak in cape town and that was the five
o'clock shadow the views and opinions

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00:17:10.272 --> 00:17:12.272
expressed in these podcast are those of
Lindsay Williams.

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00:17:12.272 --> 00:17:17.236
and various contributors and do not
reflect the policy, position, or opinion

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00:17:17.236 --> 00:17:19.236
of any other agency, organization,

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00:17:19.236 --> 00:17:22.199
employer, or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

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00:17:22.679 --> 00:17:29.645
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

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00:17:29.645 --> 00:17:31.645
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

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00:17:31.645 --> 00:17:35.829
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

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00:17:35.829 --> 00:17:37.829
change, revision,

335
00:17:37.829 --> 00:17:37.971
and rethinking at any time.

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00:17:38.271 --> 00:17:39.452
Please do not hold us to them.

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00:17:39.894 --> 00:17:40.689
in perpetuity.
