WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:04.551
You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

2
00:00:05.252 --> 00:00:12.056
JSE has almost closed its doors for
another day so it's time for Not the Five

3
00:00:12.056 --> 00:00:14.056
O'Clock Shadow with Viv Govender from the
award-winning Randsuisse

4
00:00:14.056 --> 00:00:16.056
in Johannesburg.

5
00:00:16.056 --> 00:00:18.056
Now, Viv, I've got a whole list of things
I want to talk to you about.

6
00:00:18.056 --> 00:00:20.056
David's not here, by the way, because he's
travelling.

7
00:00:20.056 --> 00:00:22.056
Well, he says he's...

8
00:00:22.056 --> 00:00:24.056
No, he's celebrating.

9
00:00:24.056 --> 00:00:26.056
Sorry, he's not travelling.

10
00:00:26.056 --> 00:00:28.056
I want to talk about...

11
00:00:28.056 --> 00:00:30.056
Let's see which one I want to start with.

12
00:00:30.056 --> 00:00:32.056
Let's talk about space, the final
frontier.

13
00:00:32.056 --> 00:00:34.056
four astronauts

14
00:00:34.056 --> 00:00:36.970
would-be astronauts blasting from the NASA
facility in America.

15
00:00:37.970 --> 00:00:43.272
And it's going to go, this rocket that
they're in is going to go further than any

16
00:00:43.272 --> 00:00:45.272
man has gone into space before, etc.

17
00:00:45.272 --> 00:00:47.433
And you can talk about the tens of
billions that have been spent on it.

18
00:00:47.693 --> 00:00:48.393
Is it worth it?

19
00:00:48.493 --> 00:00:50.374
Is what they're doing worth it, Viv?

20
00:00:50.774 --> 00:00:52.134
You're a scholar in these matters.

21
00:00:53.935 --> 00:00:57.116
Look, I mean, it's obviously a bit of a
long shot, not a guaranteed shot.

22
00:00:57.748 --> 00:01:04.654
But I mean, if you think about it, like
right now, come like SpaceX, for instance,

23
00:01:04.654 --> 00:01:06.654
you look at a little dot of Earth and
everything else that effectively belongs

24
00:01:06.654 --> 00:01:08.654
to SpaceX because they do the most of the
travel out of it.

25
00:01:08.654 --> 00:01:08.797
That has to be worth something at some
point in time.

26
00:01:11.039 --> 00:01:15.903
We are living in a very transformational
time at the moment for whatever reason,

27
00:01:15.903 --> 00:01:17.903
AI, space and so on.

28
00:01:17.903 --> 00:01:22.829
And at the moment, we're not at the point
where we can do, for instance, the space

29
00:01:22.829 --> 00:01:24.829
mining that they talked about, which I
think,

30
00:01:24.829 --> 00:01:26.829
quite frankly, is incredibly dangerous.

31
00:01:26.829 --> 00:01:28.829
A company that can...

32
00:01:28.829 --> 00:01:32.594
do space mining effectively has more power
than all the nuclear arsons in the world

33
00:01:32.594 --> 00:01:34.594
combined just just by definition because
you have

34
00:01:34.594 --> 00:01:39.856
stuff you bring for space you just drop it
in earth it's more powerful than nuclear

35
00:01:39.856 --> 00:01:41.856
bomb you know what i mean they're talking
about they're talking about not

36
00:01:41.856 --> 00:01:43.856
intercepting an

37
00:01:43.856 --> 00:01:45.856
asteroid but but um grabbing

38
00:01:45.856 --> 00:01:49.198
onto some sort of asteroid and mining that
that giant rock that's hurtling through

39
00:01:49.198 --> 00:01:49.358
the sky

40
00:01:49.358 --> 00:01:56.032
and i don't quite understand the the
physics of it obviously but the the sort

41
00:01:56.032 --> 00:01:58.032
of things that they're talking about is
beyond me and

42
00:01:58.032 --> 00:01:59.114
I'll be dead by the time it happens if it
ever does happen.

43
00:01:59.474 --> 00:02:03.335
But the general question is, is space
worth exploring?

44
00:02:04.876 --> 00:02:05.576
Almost certainly.

45
00:02:05.696 --> 00:02:07.877
Look, I mean, the AI stuff, right?

46
00:02:07.878 --> 00:02:14.780
I mean, there comes a point if the AI
thing really takes off in a big way with

47
00:02:14.780 --> 00:02:16.780
the next decade or two, where you don't
have enough power on Earth.

48
00:02:16.780 --> 00:02:16.801
And what you want to do is really put that
power into space.

49
00:02:17.221 --> 00:02:23.844
And I think that might work because then
you're not transferring physical stuff

50
00:02:23.844 --> 00:02:25.844
from space to Earth, which, like I said,
becomes incredibly dangerous.

51
00:02:25.844 --> 00:02:31.200
Any company that can transport this mine
equipment from space to earth effectively

52
00:02:31.200 --> 00:02:33.200
has a nuclear arsenal bigger than Russia
or bigger than

53
00:02:33.200 --> 00:02:35.200
the US.

54
00:02:35.200 --> 00:02:36.703
Because you can translate a couple of
hundred cages of rock, like of metal,

55
00:02:36.703 --> 00:02:38.703
dropped on a city.

56
00:02:38.703 --> 00:02:39.004
It's like dropping a small bomb on the
city, you know what I mean?

57
00:02:40.325 --> 00:02:43.967
A couple of tons or a hundred tons of rock
on a city is like a nuclear weapon.

58
00:02:45.087 --> 00:02:47.969
That is the power of transporting, like
mining.

59
00:02:48.009 --> 00:02:51.451
I don't think that is going to be allowed
by any government or whatever.

60
00:02:51.811 --> 00:02:57.558
But if you put a data center in space,
where you basically have your AI running

61
00:02:57.558 --> 00:02:59.558
on Space Data Center,

62
00:02:59.558 --> 00:03:02.520
which Elon Musk is talking about, and
which Eric Schmidt talked about, that I

63
00:03:02.520 --> 00:03:04.520
think becomes viable.

64
00:03:04.520 --> 00:03:08.603
If you think about the fact that this year
alone, we are spending $650 billion on AI

65
00:03:08.603 --> 00:03:10.603
infrastructure,

66
00:03:10.603 --> 00:03:13.125
that is a use case that suddenly becomes a
lot more attractive.

67
00:03:13.145 --> 00:03:17.887
I mean, if you can move to spend $650
billion on AI infrastructure this year,

68
00:03:18.267 --> 00:03:20.308
and people are expecting it to increase
exponentially from here.

69
00:03:20.916 --> 00:03:25.180
then suddenly those kind of things, those
space data centers and stuff, become

70
00:03:25.180 --> 00:03:27.180
viable into the future.

71
00:03:27.180 --> 00:03:29.180
Colonizing Mars, never going to happen.

72
00:03:29.180 --> 00:03:32.326
I don't know anybody besides the worst
losers on Earth who are going to basically

73
00:03:32.326 --> 00:03:34.326
go on a one-way trip to...

74
00:03:34.326 --> 00:03:39.612
I mean, nobody's successful, nobody with a
family, nobody with a future is going to

75
00:03:39.612 --> 00:03:41.612
give up Earth and go away effectively
forever to

76
00:03:41.612 --> 00:03:43.612
Mars.

77
00:03:43.612 --> 00:03:44.196
Because, I mean, the round trip is going
to be two plus years, you know, at best.

78
00:03:44.476 --> 00:03:48.157
Yes, the city on Mars theory is out the
window.

79
00:03:48.158 --> 00:03:51.578
I mean, that's just something that Elon
Musk has been talking about and talking

80
00:03:51.578 --> 00:03:51.639
about him.

81
00:03:52.138 --> 00:03:57.460
In a very different way, he has suddenly
decided to list

82
00:03:58.060 --> 00:04:02.121
SpaceX. He's filed quietly, and that's the
difference.

83
00:04:02.122 --> 00:04:06.402
He's filed very quietly the forms to have
an IPO for SpaceX.

84
00:04:06.742 --> 00:04:08.263
I don't know why there's no fanfare.

85
00:04:08.283 --> 00:04:12.304
There's lots of trumpeters and him jumping
around on a stage and dancing.

86
00:04:12.584 --> 00:04:15.045
But this time he's done it in a very
discreet manner.

87
00:04:15.425 --> 00:04:16.365
What is that all about?

88
00:04:16.405 --> 00:04:19.346
Is it because he's a little bit sheepish
about the AI story?

89
00:04:19.406 --> 00:04:23.027
Is it because the market is a little bit
sort of dodgy at the moment?

90
00:04:23.067 --> 00:04:23.767
What do you think?

91
00:04:24.327 --> 00:04:25.528
And is it a good IPO?

92
00:04:27.308 --> 00:04:30.829
Look, I mean, I think that, like I said,
it may be a long shot,

93
00:04:30.909 --> 00:04:36.771
but the price is so large that you
basically have to have, if SpaceX lists,

94
00:04:36.771 --> 00:04:38.771
you have to have a piece of SpaceX in your
portfolio,

95
00:04:38.771 --> 00:04:40.771
because there's literally nothing like
that in the world.

96
00:04:40.771 --> 00:04:40.952
It's an amazingly successful company.

97
00:04:41.372 --> 00:04:46.102
You cannot think in all of like you know
corporate history of a single company that

98
00:04:46.102 --> 00:04:46.281
had

99
00:04:46.443 --> 00:04:52.642
90 plus percent share of the global market
of any product that the world really

100
00:04:52.642 --> 00:04:54.642
wanted You know what I mean?

101
00:04:54.642 --> 00:04:57.346
90 plus percent share of transporting
stuff into space is done by SpaceX.

102
00:04:57.386 --> 00:04:58.807
That's an incredible market share.

103
00:04:59.468 --> 00:05:01.610
And so, therefore, that's something I
think you have to get into.

104
00:05:02.671 --> 00:05:05.693
Whether or not you're really overpaid for
XAI, I think you did.

105
00:05:06.134 --> 00:05:10.257
Whether or not it's going to basically be
diluted by some of the stuff happening

106
00:05:10.257 --> 00:05:12.257
with Tesla, probably.

107
00:05:12.257 --> 00:05:12.419
But it is a good thing.

108
00:05:12.420 --> 00:05:16.462
And I think most people are going to, most
big investors are probably going to put

109
00:05:16.462 --> 00:05:18.462
some money into it.

110
00:05:18.462 --> 00:05:18.764
Now, the valuation they're coming out with
is big.

111
00:05:18.844 --> 00:05:19.885
It's bigger than Saudi Aramco.

112
00:05:20.225 --> 00:05:20.925
You know what I mean?

113
00:05:21.118 --> 00:05:24.341
We're talking about maybe a couple
trillion dollar IPO, which is huge.

114
00:05:26.082 --> 00:05:29.445
But as a punt that you have in your
portfolio, I think it's good.

115
00:05:29.885 --> 00:05:34.469
Whether or not it's probably going to be a
long-term successful thing, I mean, on

116
00:05:34.469 --> 00:05:36.469
balance of probabilities,

117
00:05:36.469 --> 00:05:36.931
I don't think it's going to live up to
valuation.

118
00:05:37.832 --> 00:05:43.937
But I think that the opportunity, the
asymmetry in terms of the payoff profile

119
00:05:43.937 --> 00:05:45.937
is so large that you probably must

120
00:05:45.937 --> 00:05:47.937
have some of it in your portfolio.

121
00:05:47.937 --> 00:05:49.937
Okay, we've done space and SpaceX.

122
00:05:49.937 --> 00:05:53.623
Now we have to talk about Trump because
he's really starting to mess with markets,

123
00:05:53.623 --> 00:05:55.623
not on a weekly basis or a monthly basis,

124
00:05:55.623 --> 00:05:57.623
on a daily basis.

125
00:05:57.623 --> 00:05:59.623
He spoke to Reuters.

126
00:05:59.623 --> 00:06:01.623
What day is it today?

127
00:06:01.623 --> 00:06:03.623
Thursday.

128
00:06:03.623 --> 00:06:04.650
He spoke to Reuters on Wednesday in the
morning, and he said that he thought he

129
00:06:04.650 --> 00:06:06.650
would be out of Iran quite quickly,

130
00:06:06.650 --> 00:06:08.650
but he'd go back.

131
00:06:08.650 --> 00:06:10.650
He'd pop back if necessary.

132
00:06:10.650 --> 00:06:12.650
And the markets thought this is great, and
they rallied.

133
00:06:12.650 --> 00:06:14.650
We had a massive rally.

134
00:06:14.650 --> 00:06:16.557
quarter-end rally, 3.78%, I think it was,
on the NASDAQ, whatever.

135
00:06:16.637 --> 00:06:19.298
Then today we've had, or rather in the
early hours,

136
00:06:19.738 --> 00:06:26.642
we've had Trump coming out and giving a
speech to the nation and saying we're

137
00:06:26.642 --> 00:06:28.642
going to hit them in the next two to three
weeks

138
00:06:28.642 --> 00:06:31.525
with hellfire like you've never seen
before, whatever terminology he used.

139
00:06:32.105 --> 00:06:36.688
And the oil price shoots up and the
indices are well down, over 1%

140
00:06:36.968 --> 00:06:39.229
at the moment as we speak in the United
States.

141
00:06:39.409 --> 00:06:40.570
I mean, this is...

142
00:06:40.710 --> 00:06:41.550
this can't go on.

143
00:06:41.790 --> 00:06:47.293
Surely somebody has the guts at the SEC to
say no and look into this.

144
00:06:47.633 --> 00:06:50.994
Because it's not just disturbing because
he's a maniac,

145
00:06:51.414 --> 00:06:54.716
but it's also affecting the lives of an
awful lot of people.

146
00:06:56.036 --> 00:07:02.159
Yeah, I mean, look, unfortunately, the
people that's going to be most affected

147
00:07:02.159 --> 00:07:04.159
are people that don't count, in inverted
commas, in the world at the moment.

148
00:07:04.159 --> 00:07:06.420
When the food situation becomes, like, you
know, really bad, which is going to happen

149
00:07:06.420 --> 00:07:06.481
this year.

150
00:07:06.901 --> 00:07:09.982
I mean, we're talking about the growing
season for the northern hemisphere.

151
00:07:10.330 --> 00:07:12.411
It's now, and there's no fertilizer
available.

152
00:07:12.971 --> 00:07:14.051
You know, what does that mean?

153
00:07:15.672 --> 00:07:18.052
There's something like about 120 days of
food in the world.

154
00:07:18.453 --> 00:07:21.313
Something like 90 to 120 days, somewhere
around about three to four months of food

155
00:07:21.313 --> 00:07:21.473
in the world.

156
00:07:21.814 --> 00:07:25.935
As a backup, we have to replenish that
stock every single quarter, effectively.

157
00:07:26.675 --> 00:07:33.077
This is the biggest quarter of the year
happening right now, and we have not

158
00:07:33.077 --> 00:07:35.077
enough fertilizer in the world to
basically do the proper

159
00:07:35.077 --> 00:07:36.078
fertilization and get the proper yields we
need to get.

160
00:07:36.770 --> 00:07:43.134
And the people who are going to suffer are
the poorest people in the world, the

161
00:07:43.134 --> 00:07:45.134
people that spend 30, 40% of their income
currently on food, that will be pushing up

162
00:07:45.134 --> 00:07:47.134
to maybe 50 or 60%

163
00:07:47.134 --> 00:07:49.134
of their income by the end of the year.

164
00:07:49.134 --> 00:07:51.699
The guy that spends 1% and goes to 1.2 or
1.3% of his income, that guy might have a

165
00:07:51.699 --> 00:07:53.699
bit of a problem with the price of eggs,
but he's not going to really be in

166
00:07:53.699 --> 00:07:55.699
trouble.

167
00:07:55.699 --> 00:07:57.699
And I think that's the real issue.

168
00:07:57.699 --> 00:07:59.699
Unfortunately, those guys have no voice.

169
00:07:59.699 --> 00:08:01.699
Those guys have gone for nothing.

170
00:08:01.699 --> 00:08:03.699
And in the U.S.

171
00:08:03.699 --> 00:08:05.699
right now, I mean, yes, the price of gas
has gone up.

172
00:08:05.699 --> 00:08:07.699
Yes, we are seeing a bit of inflation
coming through.

173
00:08:07.699 --> 00:08:11.802
But the US is so powerful and so large
that they can get by with this being

174
00:08:11.802 --> 00:08:13.802
nothing more than a minor irritation at
the moment.

175
00:08:13.802 --> 00:08:16.044
So I think he's probably going to lose the
midterms in terms of his party.

176
00:08:16.544 --> 00:08:17.545
He might even lose the Senate.

177
00:08:17.805 --> 00:08:18.765
He might lose the Congress.

178
00:08:19.506 --> 00:08:20.726
He probably might lose the Senate.

179
00:08:21.107 --> 00:08:22.147
That's a bit of a harder thing.

180
00:08:22.668 --> 00:08:27.370
And I think that might be the only thing
that stops his kind of rampage.

181
00:08:28.050 --> 00:08:28.991
Because at that point in time...

182
00:08:29.031 --> 00:08:34.314
But let's say that between now and
November, which I think is November the

183
00:08:34.314 --> 00:08:36.314
5th or the 6th, when the midterms occur.

184
00:08:36.314 --> 00:08:39.519
If something happens and he regains or he
manages to hang on to what he's got at the

185
00:08:39.519 --> 00:08:39.739
moment,

186
00:08:39.879 --> 00:08:45.644
then the danger is that in the next three
years, it's bedlam, it's chaos.

187
00:08:46.105 --> 00:08:53.071
And there could be things happening to a
democratic society that America is that

188
00:08:53.071 --> 00:08:55.071
we've never ever seen

189
00:08:55.071 --> 00:08:56.935
before in the 250-year history of the
country.

190
00:08:57.496 --> 00:08:58.196
And it's scary.

191
00:08:58.196 --> 00:08:59.718
Oh, you must be.

192
00:08:59.719 --> 00:09:00.419
What's up?

193
00:09:00.419 --> 00:09:06.671
The thing is that, I mean, he also happens
to be, you know, president, not just at

194
00:09:06.671 --> 00:09:08.671
this point in time in history, but over
the time when AI is taking off.

195
00:09:08.671 --> 00:09:09.113
It's quite possible next year that the
U.S.

196
00:09:09.534 --> 00:09:12.156
economy grows like five, six, seven
percent a year.

197
00:09:12.716 --> 00:09:14.618
You know what I mean?

198
00:09:14.638 --> 00:09:15.338
AI takes off in a way.

199
00:09:15.579 --> 00:09:17.900
Look, Oracle cut 30,000 jobs this week.

200
00:09:18.821 --> 00:09:19.521
Why are they doing that?

201
00:09:19.962 --> 00:09:23.885
We are seeing job cuts from Amazon, job
cuts from a number of different high-tech

202
00:09:23.885 --> 00:09:25.885
companies.

203
00:09:25.885 --> 00:09:29.430
We're seeing unemployment rising among
young computer scientists.

204
00:09:30.178 --> 00:09:30.999
AI is taking off.

205
00:09:31.979 --> 00:09:36.081
And if that is the case, I do think that
he could have an advantage.

206
00:09:36.882 --> 00:09:43.665
But the problem is that I think right now,
the midterms I think are probably too soon

207
00:09:43.665 --> 00:09:45.665
for Mr. Ticket to change,

208
00:09:45.665 --> 00:09:47.665
and I think he's probably going to be in
trouble.

209
00:09:47.665 --> 00:09:49.665
Okay, well, let's hope so.

210
00:09:49.665 --> 00:09:51.665
That's my personal view.

211
00:09:51.665 --> 00:09:54.219
Oil is something that's been around since,
what, the late 19th century, early 20th

212
00:09:54.219 --> 00:09:54.258
century?

213
00:09:54.579 --> 00:09:55.279
I don't know.

214
00:09:55.279 --> 00:10:00.282
But it is something that is, it's quite
funny that you say that AI is this and AI

215
00:10:00.282 --> 00:10:02.282
is that,

216
00:10:02.282 --> 00:10:02.343
and this will be the influence and this is
what it'll do.

217
00:10:02.763 --> 00:10:08.146
But we're still being held to ransom by an
old fashioned oil price, a fossil fuel.

218
00:10:09.047 --> 00:10:10.187
It's ridiculous, isn't it?

219
00:10:10.188 --> 00:10:15.070
And a tiny 22 mile gap between two
landmasses.

220
00:10:15.874 --> 00:10:17.555
that oil tankers go through.

221
00:10:18.015 --> 00:10:22.457
It's ridiculous how pathetically
prehistoric we are as human beings.

222
00:10:23.437 --> 00:10:30.380
I mean, the thing is that if you look at
history, right, and human history from a

223
00:10:30.380 --> 00:10:32.380
very, very high vantage point,

224
00:10:32.380 --> 00:10:36.023
what you find is that it's the use of
energy that defines the level of comfort,

225
00:10:36.143 --> 00:10:37.824
the living standards of a country.

226
00:10:39.124 --> 00:10:43.346
So if you look at, for instance, animals
back in the day, people don't realize

227
00:10:43.346 --> 00:10:43.607
this.

228
00:10:43.798 --> 00:10:50.481
But until we used oil and coal, pretty
much the amount of work you could get done

229
00:10:50.481 --> 00:10:52.481
in the country was dependent on

230
00:10:52.481 --> 00:10:54.481
the amount of food you had in the country.

231
00:10:54.481 --> 00:10:57.604
The amount of actual construction effort
and whatever, how much you could

232
00:10:57.604 --> 00:10:59.604
transport, what you could build, whatever,

233
00:10:59.604 --> 00:11:01.604
was literally dependent on how much food
you had.

234
00:11:01.604 --> 00:11:02.186
Because you had to feed the animals, you
had to feed the people that did the stuff.

235
00:11:03.426 --> 00:11:08.928
Oil and coal, those things, those fossil
fuels, basically changed that in a way

236
00:11:08.928 --> 00:11:10.928
that's very dramatic.

237
00:11:10.928 --> 00:11:13.030
And you say it's primitive, but the amount
of

238
00:11:13.510 --> 00:11:20.255
of like your work available for like see
for a liter of petrol is insane

239
00:11:21.095 --> 00:11:27.300
okay it's like hundreds of hours for one
liter petrol which now costs like 25

240
00:11:27.300 --> 00:11:27.360
rounds

241
00:11:28.020 --> 00:11:33.284
okay so and there's nothing that replaces
it very easily because yes you could have

242
00:11:33.284 --> 00:11:33.543
uh

243
00:11:33.543 --> 00:11:40.108
you know electric vehicles you're gonna
have electric ships you're gonna have

244
00:11:40.108 --> 00:11:42.108
electric plates and so that's something i
think that we we

245
00:11:42.108 --> 00:11:45.956
have to consider that even today as
Protopost oil seems you don't have a

246
00:11:45.956 --> 00:11:47.956
replacement for many industries.

247
00:11:47.956 --> 00:11:49.956
You can't do, for instance,

248
00:11:49.956 --> 00:11:55.320
renewable manufacturing of steel or
renewable creation of cement because the

249
00:11:55.320 --> 00:11:57.320
energy density is just not great

250
00:11:57.320 --> 00:11:59.320
enough in renewables.

251
00:11:59.320 --> 00:12:01.042
You have to have nuclear or you have to
have oil or some kind of fossil fuels.

252
00:12:03.043 --> 00:12:03.743
Yes, we have to.

253
00:12:04.263 --> 00:12:06.725
And that brings me to driverless taxis.

254
00:12:07.505 --> 00:12:09.826
Now, as a Luddite, I smiled a bit when
I...

255
00:12:10.066 --> 00:12:14.550
turned on the BBC this morning because I
saw there was a huge traffic jam

256
00:12:14.550 --> 00:12:16.550
somewhere.

257
00:12:16.550 --> 00:12:20.855
I think it was Guangdong actually in China
because the driverless taxi market had

258
00:12:20.855 --> 00:12:22.855
collapsed because of a

259
00:12:22.855 --> 00:12:24.855
technical glitch.

260
00:12:24.855 --> 00:12:26.855
This is the future.

261
00:12:26.855 --> 00:12:29.942
Someone will find out, find a way and
it'll be like a Bond film villain.

262
00:12:30.843 --> 00:12:37.369
We'll find a way to scupper normal society
every single day by turning off something.

263
00:12:37.509 --> 00:12:38.930
Viv, that's me being simple.

264
00:12:39.130 --> 00:12:46.094
a simpleton but you saw the story about
the taxes this morning surely well look i

265
00:12:46.094 --> 00:12:48.094
mean yes we are going to have these issues

266
00:12:48.094 --> 00:12:53.158
but it's about security i mean security
for our mandatory

267
00:12:53.218 --> 00:12:58.381
system think about that if you can hack it
to something anything just because it's

268
00:12:58.381 --> 00:13:00.381
digital you could hack into

269
00:13:00.381 --> 00:13:01.683
the banks you know what i mean and there

270
00:13:01.703 --> 00:13:06.626
is a way to get digital stuff reasonably
secure i think we will get to that point

271
00:13:07.002 --> 00:13:12.804
The advantage of the driverless taxis and
the autonomous vehicle market is just so

272
00:13:12.804 --> 00:13:12.983
great.

273
00:13:13.904 --> 00:13:18.225
Once you have it, you basically eliminate
traffic jams, you eliminate a lot of

274
00:13:18.225 --> 00:13:18.326
accidents.

275
00:13:18.545 --> 00:13:20.406
I mean, right now, Teslas, right?

276
00:13:21.406 --> 00:13:23.247
To see how safe it is.

277
00:13:23.507 --> 00:13:25.307
Forget about the Hyperon, Elon Musk or
whatever.

278
00:13:26.287 --> 00:13:32.309
Insurance companies offer you a lower
premium when you're driverless or when

279
00:13:32.309 --> 00:13:34.309
you're driven by the

280
00:13:34.309 --> 00:13:35.350
full stop driving as opposed to when the
human is driving.

281
00:13:36.014 --> 00:13:42.277
But the insurance companies already looked
at the thing and say, you know, on

282
00:13:42.277 --> 00:13:44.277
average, the full-staff driving system is
safer than the human driver.

283
00:13:44.277 --> 00:13:44.938
That's now, already.

284
00:13:45.318 --> 00:13:46.638
And this is improving over time.

285
00:13:47.139 --> 00:13:51.741
And in the next five to ten years, this is
going to come to a point where it's going

286
00:13:51.741 --> 00:13:53.741
to be a no-brainer that you

287
00:13:53.741 --> 00:13:56.463
want to have the driverless taxi as
opposed to the human-driven one, just

288
00:13:56.463 --> 00:13:58.463
because of the safety involved.

289
00:13:58.463 --> 00:14:00.044
And the problem is that the number of
workers in these places is insane.

290
00:14:00.504 --> 00:14:02.525
It's the number one job in most parts of
the world, driver.

291
00:14:02.526 --> 00:14:04.346
Not the only job.

292
00:14:04.654 --> 00:14:11.457
But you don't look at all jobs like
driver, forklift driver, taxi driver, bus

293
00:14:11.457 --> 00:14:13.457
driver, train driver, bulldozer driver.

294
00:14:13.457 --> 00:14:13.518
That's the only job in the world.

295
00:14:13.758 --> 00:14:14.458
You know what I mean?

296
00:14:14.618 --> 00:14:20.021
And a lot of people that make a
reasonable, middle-class living from that

297
00:14:20.021 --> 00:14:22.021
is shocking.

298
00:14:22.021 --> 00:14:22.142
And what happens when they get replaced?

299
00:14:23.362 --> 00:14:24.923
That's what we're dealing with right now
going forward.

300
00:14:24.924 --> 00:14:29.125
This is the argument, you see, because the
replacement factor is very important.

301
00:14:29.205 --> 00:14:31.286
You say that these jobs will be lost
and...

302
00:14:31.546 --> 00:14:34.948
And someone like David and yourself will
say, well, there's so many jobs being

303
00:14:34.948 --> 00:14:34.968
created.

304
00:14:34.988 --> 00:14:40.652
But you can't immediately say job
vacancies and job losses, they can come

305
00:14:40.652 --> 00:14:40.712
together.

306
00:14:40.772 --> 00:14:47.356
Because the person that is losing his or
her job doesn't have the skills to go into

307
00:14:47.356 --> 00:14:49.356
the new job created by AI.

308
00:14:49.356 --> 00:14:49.918
It's a whole new world out there.

309
00:14:51.353 --> 00:14:54.956
Look, I would say it's going to be a job
apocalypse, whatever you want to call it.

310
00:14:54.957 --> 00:14:56.257
It's going to be a disaster for jobs.

311
00:14:56.657 --> 00:15:01.921
And the other thing, people talk about the
Industrial Revolution and say, oh, the

312
00:15:01.921 --> 00:15:03.921
Industrial Revolution and new jobs were
created.

313
00:15:03.921 --> 00:15:04.443
The Industrial Revolution was primarily
occurring in Europe.

314
00:15:05.243 --> 00:15:11.027
Europe exported many of the negative side
effects of the job creation to places like

315
00:15:11.027 --> 00:15:13.027
India, Africa, and other parts of the
world.

316
00:15:13.027 --> 00:15:16.631
If you look at the impact globally of the
Industrial Revolution, even though it took

317
00:15:16.631 --> 00:15:18.631
many years to occur,

318
00:15:18.631 --> 00:15:18.633
much slower than this current revolution.

319
00:15:19.081 --> 00:15:21.162
The negative impact was still pretty
spectacular.

320
00:15:21.402 --> 00:15:23.863
It just wasn't occurring in places that
had the factories.

321
00:15:24.923 --> 00:15:25.623
You know what I mean?

322
00:15:25.963 --> 00:15:27.624
And I think that's something to be looked
at here as well.

323
00:15:28.044 --> 00:15:30.865
When the impact happens, places like
Silicon Valley are going to be doing very

324
00:15:30.865 --> 00:15:31.165
well.

325
00:15:31.465 --> 00:15:32.445
Lagos, not so well.

326
00:15:32.845 --> 00:15:34.026
Lagos, what happens in Lagos?

327
00:15:34.027 --> 00:15:35.106
What happens in Johannesburg?

328
00:15:35.586 --> 00:15:42.228
When the taxi driver has no job, when the
delivery driver has no job, when the

329
00:15:42.228 --> 00:15:44.228
bulldozer driver has no job, the forklift
driver.

330
00:15:44.228 --> 00:15:46.228
Like I said.

331
00:15:46.228 --> 00:15:48.228
The jobs for these people aren't good.

332
00:15:48.228 --> 00:15:50.228
There's social unrest.

333
00:15:50.228 --> 00:15:52.228
This is what I've been saying all the
time.

334
00:15:52.228 --> 00:15:52.413
And I remember having a conversation with
you and David and we talked the bigger

335
00:15:52.413 --> 00:15:52.433
picture.

336
00:15:52.433 --> 00:15:58.717
And I said, what about the future of
society when there are squadrons of people

337
00:15:58.717 --> 00:16:00.717
that don't have jobs?

338
00:16:00.717 --> 00:16:02.717
That causes unrest.

339
00:16:02.717 --> 00:16:06.141
You sit at home all day, you can watch as
much Netflix and television and streaming

340
00:16:06.141 --> 00:16:08.141
and listen to as many podcasts as you
like,

341
00:16:08.141 --> 00:16:10.903
but you get bored and you get, you feel
dissatisfied and you go out and you cause

342
00:16:10.903 --> 00:16:11.003
trouble.

343
00:16:11.043 --> 00:16:11.784
That's what's happened.

344
00:16:12.284 --> 00:16:13.865
That's what's happened throughout history.

345
00:16:14.265 --> 00:16:19.229
So there will be societal unrest and there
will be, as I've said before, chaos.

346
00:16:19.530 --> 00:16:20.891
But David just dismissed this.

347
00:16:21.351 --> 00:16:23.713
And also, I have to say, Viv, you did as
well.

348
00:16:24.093 --> 00:16:25.415
You talked about something else.

349
00:16:25.795 --> 00:16:27.777
I'm talking about the bigger picture of
society.

350
00:16:28.197 --> 00:16:33.682
There will be 20, 30 percent unemployment
globally and then there'll be madness.

351
00:16:35.083 --> 00:16:37.725
Look, I mean, unfortunately, there won't
be madness.

352
00:16:37.726 --> 00:16:39.367
The reason for it is because the control.

353
00:16:40.327 --> 00:16:42.109
Look, I mean, this is the word.

354
00:16:42.573 --> 00:16:49.376
of like the out there you know i go out
there sometimes but this game for me is

355
00:16:49.376 --> 00:16:51.376
out there yeah the reason that we have
democracy okay is two things it's

356
00:16:51.376 --> 00:16:56.259
number one it is guns number two it is the
factory okay why because the guns and

357
00:16:56.259 --> 00:16:58.259
factory give power to the masses to

358
00:16:58.259 --> 00:17:02.902
basically withhold either you know or to
put violence or to withhold their labor

359
00:17:02.902 --> 00:17:04.902
which affects countries that's why if you
look at it

360
00:17:04.902 --> 00:17:09.845
initially you know when we had the french
revolution and stuff this all happened

361
00:17:09.845 --> 00:17:11.845
when guns became more prevalent allowing a
bunch of people with guns let's

362
00:17:11.845 --> 00:17:13.845
trained to defeat them.

363
00:17:13.845 --> 00:17:15.845
well-trained soldiers.

364
00:17:15.845 --> 00:17:17.549
And then in the 20th century and 19th
century, the whole democracy movement,

365
00:17:17.550 --> 00:17:19.851
the whole progressive movement moved to
the unions.

366
00:17:20.071 --> 00:17:20.771
Why?

367
00:17:20.771 --> 00:17:25.935
Because the factory gave the worker the
ability to withhold their labor,

368
00:17:26.275 --> 00:17:28.337
and that allowed them power in the
society.

369
00:17:29.377 --> 00:17:35.942
When you have drones that take away the
power of an individual gun, when you have

370
00:17:35.942 --> 00:17:37.942
robots and automation that takes away the
power of the person in the factory,

371
00:17:37.942 --> 00:17:40.245
the people, like you talk about, that
didn't go and cause chaos.

372
00:17:41.421 --> 00:17:42.201
become powerless.

373
00:17:42.901 --> 00:17:45.342
And we've seen in human history what
happens to powerless people.

374
00:17:45.343 --> 00:17:46.443
They're not treated well.

375
00:17:46.823 --> 00:17:47.523
You know what I mean?

376
00:17:48.143 --> 00:17:50.664
And I think that is the future we are
seeing here.

377
00:17:51.364 --> 00:17:53.305
When it becomes a problem, what are you
going to do?

378
00:17:53.306 --> 00:17:59.306
Are you going to go in the streets and
write when you have a space technician,

379
00:17:59.306 --> 00:18:01.306
when you have autonomous drones flying
above you,

380
00:18:01.306 --> 00:18:03.348
when you have robots basically doing your
job?

381
00:18:03.688 --> 00:18:07.489
What power would you have to affect the
people in power?

382
00:18:07.649 --> 00:18:12.393
And the other question is, is who are the
people in power and will they be able to

383
00:18:12.393 --> 00:18:14.393
be overthrown?

384
00:18:14.393 --> 00:18:19.039
Is it a government that is, you know, you
can storm the Palace of Westminster or

385
00:18:19.039 --> 00:18:21.039
something in London by walking across

386
00:18:21.039 --> 00:18:23.039
Westminster Bridge.

387
00:18:23.039 --> 00:18:27.107
But in the future, will there be that sort
of, that building full of people, you

388
00:18:27.107 --> 00:18:27.566
know,

389
00:18:27.566 --> 00:18:34.013
debating every day, the House of Lords,
the House of Commons, or you'll go to

390
00:18:34.013 --> 00:18:36.013
Capitol Hill, something like that.

391
00:18:36.013 --> 00:18:38.013
I don't think in the future they'll be
there.

392
00:18:38.013 --> 00:18:40.195
So these peasants that are revolting,
where will they go to revolt?

393
00:18:40.555 --> 00:18:42.195
And who are they revolting against?

394
00:18:43.116 --> 00:18:47.997
And also, they won't be able to revolt
because the one thing that saved the guy

395
00:18:47.997 --> 00:18:49.997
from Westminster, once he went and
attacked Westminster,

396
00:18:49.997 --> 00:18:55.279
is the policeman is somebody that lives in
his street and won't want to just shoot

397
00:18:55.279 --> 00:18:57.279
the granny or the teenager that's
basically rioting

398
00:18:57.279 --> 00:18:59.279
outside Westminster.

399
00:18:59.279 --> 00:19:01.279
Right?

400
00:19:01.279 --> 00:19:03.279
That's the feedback mechanism.

401
00:19:03.279 --> 00:19:05.279
It's the fact that the people enforcing
the laws are part of the people.

402
00:19:05.279 --> 00:19:07.279
What happens to the people enforcing the
laws are actually the robots.

403
00:19:07.279 --> 00:19:07.746
Or the law enforcement arm becomes the
drones.

404
00:19:08.026 --> 00:19:14.752
What happens to the law enforcement arm
becomes like, you know, some guy sitting

405
00:19:14.752 --> 00:19:16.752
on a turbo subway or some

406
00:19:16.752 --> 00:19:18.752
AI system that's running somewhere.

407
00:19:18.752 --> 00:19:22.860
They're not going to have the same level
of hesitation when it comes to, you know,

408
00:19:23.500 --> 00:19:26.463
attacking civilian populations or
whatever.

409
00:19:26.843 --> 00:19:27.844
Again, this is put out there.

410
00:19:28.164 --> 00:19:28.864
But the thing is that...

411
00:19:29.273 --> 00:19:33.159
Recently they did war studies, or war game
studies with the big LLMs,

412
00:19:33.860 --> 00:19:38.206
and LLMs are significantly more likely to
resort to nuclear weapons than humans are.

413
00:19:39.047 --> 00:19:43.273
Like 95% of the time they resort to
nuclear weapons when an LLM has control.

414
00:19:44.715 --> 00:19:45.737
The issue here is that...

415
00:19:46.730 --> 00:19:51.031
Again, from the very top level view, what
happens is, forget about trying to attack

416
00:19:51.031 --> 00:19:51.151
people,

417
00:19:51.411 --> 00:19:57.613
you won't have the power to attack people
because you don't have the ability to

418
00:19:57.613 --> 00:19:59.613
overcome the defences they will put up
there.

419
00:19:59.613 --> 00:20:01.914
And you won't have the ability to hold
your labour to do anything.

420
00:20:01.934 --> 00:20:03.475
I mean, think of it right now.

421
00:20:03.595 --> 00:20:04.295
What a protest.

422
00:20:04.335 --> 00:20:07.216
You stop, you know, the trains from
working by going on strike.

423
00:20:07.536 --> 00:20:09.196
You protest by blocking the streets.

424
00:20:09.636 --> 00:20:12.977
You basically, you know, mass movements on
the streets.

425
00:20:14.038 --> 00:20:15.018
How does that affect?

426
00:20:15.898 --> 00:20:19.561
an autonomous AI economy.

427
00:20:19.741 --> 00:20:20.462
You're blocking the streets.

428
00:20:20.622 --> 00:20:23.344
They don't use the streets for their
transport.

429
00:20:23.364 --> 00:20:24.085
It's meaningless.

430
00:20:24.086 --> 00:20:27.628
It's a gesture.

431
00:20:28.188 --> 00:20:29.229
They'll look back at that,

432
00:20:29.870 --> 00:20:36.115
blocking the Westminster Bridge so the
police can't get to the Palace of

433
00:20:36.115 --> 00:20:38.115
Westminster or whatever.

434
00:20:38.115 --> 00:20:41.820
And they'll look back at that as we look
back at what happened in medieval times.

435
00:20:42.420 --> 00:20:44.082
It's that dramatic, I think.

436
00:20:44.366 --> 00:20:46.167
It's very depressing actually what you've
just said.

437
00:20:46.187 --> 00:20:50.568
It'll be like basically the Walling
Dervishes versus the Gatlinga.

438
00:20:51.008 --> 00:20:51.728
That's what it's going to be like.

439
00:20:51.748 --> 00:20:53.489
Exactly.

440
00:20:53.490 --> 00:20:57.130
Talk about medicines first of all, rather
lastly,

441
00:20:57.190 --> 00:21:02.291
because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked
and we can't get fertilizer and we can't

442
00:21:02.291 --> 00:21:04.291
get oil.

443
00:21:04.291 --> 00:21:07.293
But you spoke in a message you sent to me
about medicine and tablets, etc.

444
00:21:08.213 --> 00:21:09.113
What were you saying there?

445
00:21:09.114 --> 00:21:09.814
Yes.

446
00:21:09.814 --> 00:21:11.174
I mean...

447
00:21:12.174 --> 00:21:14.676
We look at, obviously, oil as the basis
here.

448
00:21:14.677 --> 00:21:17.058
But remember, the Middle East has a lot of
stuff coming out of it.

449
00:21:17.078 --> 00:21:18.039
It's a very important thing.

450
00:21:18.379 --> 00:21:21.881
And modern supply chains are more
complicated than you think.

451
00:21:23.082 --> 00:21:29.827
You know, like ASML, there's thousands of
suppliers in total that supply that

452
00:21:29.827 --> 00:21:31.827
company to make that

453
00:21:31.827 --> 00:21:33.827
machine.

454
00:21:33.827 --> 00:21:38.152
If you look at things like medicine and so
on, I don't know for certain, but I would

455
00:21:38.152 --> 00:21:40.152
suspect that there's a danger that some of
the supply chains don't work

456
00:21:40.152 --> 00:21:42.152
as nicely as they did before.

457
00:21:42.152 --> 00:21:45.778
we've already seen, for instance, recently
things like Zempik and the new GLP-1 drugs

458
00:21:45.778 --> 00:21:45.818
and so on.

459
00:21:46.699 --> 00:21:47.600
There's been shortages there.

460
00:21:47.601 --> 00:21:50.462
There have been shortages for other
medicines in the past as well.

461
00:21:51.643 --> 00:21:56.226
What we're doing right now, disrupting one
of the key pathways for human trade,

462
00:21:56.967 --> 00:21:58.969
we don't know what the downstream effects
of that are going to be.

463
00:21:58.989 --> 00:22:05.854
And I think that if you do, if you are
dependent on any kind of chronic

464
00:22:05.854 --> 00:22:07.854
medication, it behooves you to go and get
a month or two extra supply just to make

465
00:22:07.854 --> 00:22:09.854
sure that

466
00:22:09.854 --> 00:22:10.338
you don't get caught in other ways.

467
00:22:10.654 --> 00:22:16.577
If suddenly the medication your life
depends on is not available for a few

468
00:22:16.577 --> 00:22:18.577
weeks, and I think that is a possibility.

469
00:22:18.577 --> 00:22:21.118
I think that what's happening right now
with chemicals, what's happening with

470
00:22:21.118 --> 00:22:23.118
trade,

471
00:22:23.118 --> 00:22:29.022
it's going to really have an impact on
global supply chains, and you don't know

472
00:22:29.022 --> 00:22:31.022
exactly what's going to be the stuff
that's going to break down.

473
00:22:31.022 --> 00:22:33.022
And it might just be the medicine that you
need to live.

474
00:22:33.022 --> 00:22:38.826
Do you think that this war that's been
going on for four weeks now will extend,

475
00:22:38.826 --> 00:22:40.826
first of all, that's the first part of the
question, and secondly,

476
00:22:40.826 --> 00:22:46.050
Do you think that the ramifications are
more than four weeks or eight weeks or

477
00:22:46.050 --> 00:22:48.050
three months and will carry on because of

478
00:22:48.050 --> 00:22:49.171
the supply chain issues that you just
spoke about?

479
00:22:49.492 --> 00:22:54.855
I mean, do you think that it'll take a
long time, even if it's only a two month

480
00:22:54.855 --> 00:22:56.855
war, to unwind?

481
00:22:56.855 --> 00:23:01.118
Look, I mean, the people say you've never
been able to change the regime via, you

482
00:23:01.118 --> 00:23:01.558
know,

483
00:23:02.799 --> 00:23:03.519
air power alone.

484
00:23:04.260 --> 00:23:06.341
That being said, there's never been air
power like this before.

485
00:23:07.562 --> 00:23:08.342
We don't even know who's running.

486
00:23:08.762 --> 00:23:10.002
the Iranian government at the moment.

487
00:23:10.082 --> 00:23:13.944
We haven't seen the guy who's technically
in charge since basically he was put in

488
00:23:13.944 --> 00:23:14.203
charge.

489
00:23:14.864 --> 00:23:18.625
We've seen a number of deaths of race
senior members of the Iranian regime.

490
00:23:19.065 --> 00:23:25.127
It could be quite true that, you know, in
a couple months' time, there is no Iran

491
00:23:25.127 --> 00:23:27.127
overarching government to look at.

492
00:23:27.127 --> 00:23:28.348
It could be warlords in different areas,
which makes it much more difficult.

493
00:23:29.428 --> 00:23:32.129
Because at that point in time, who do you
negotiate with?

494
00:23:32.389 --> 00:23:33.569
Who's keeping control of the country?

495
00:23:33.629 --> 00:23:34.389
Who's doing whatever?

496
00:23:34.769 --> 00:23:36.710
It becomes a lot more difficult to go and
have a victory.

497
00:23:37.090 --> 00:23:39.912
You have somebody surrender when there's
100 people to surrender, okay?

498
00:23:40.773 --> 00:23:43.234
And I think that is the kind of downstream
thing.

499
00:23:44.575 --> 00:23:48.058
If not that, then there is an Iranian
regime in power.

500
00:23:48.118 --> 00:23:53.742
That Iranian regime, quite frankly, is
going to have a huge incentive to

501
00:23:53.742 --> 00:23:55.742
basically get nuclear weapons.

502
00:23:55.742 --> 00:23:57.742
And the U.S.

503
00:23:57.742 --> 00:23:59.742
knows that.

504
00:23:59.742 --> 00:24:01.742
And the U.S.

505
00:24:01.742 --> 00:24:03.742
knows that the only way to stop that is to
actually go and seize that nuclear

506
00:24:03.742 --> 00:24:05.742
material, which means boots on the ground.

507
00:24:05.742 --> 00:24:07.742
And we've seen with Afghanistan, with
Iraq, et cetera.

508
00:24:07.742 --> 00:24:09.742
That's not very easy in the modern world.

509
00:24:09.742 --> 00:24:11.742
And the example I give to you is this.

510
00:24:11.742 --> 00:24:12.820
And the reason I say this is you can't go
to war with somebody you're trying to

511
00:24:12.820 --> 00:24:13.161
save.

512
00:24:14.081 --> 00:24:18.244
You can't go and say, I'm trying to save
the Iranian people and then go to war with

513
00:24:18.244 --> 00:24:20.244
the Iranian people.

514
00:24:20.244 --> 00:24:22.244
You know what I mean?

515
00:24:22.244 --> 00:24:24.244
That's one of the reasons that...

516
00:24:24.244 --> 00:24:25.430
Yeah, I'm looking for peace in the Middle
East, but at the same time, I'm invading

517
00:24:25.430 --> 00:24:27.430
Iran.

518
00:24:27.430 --> 00:24:29.430
I mean, it just doesn't make sense, does
it?

519
00:24:29.430 --> 00:24:31.755
Yeah, but you can't say, I'm trying to
save the Iranians from the evil regime by

520
00:24:31.755 --> 00:24:33.755
going and invading Iran.

521
00:24:33.755 --> 00:24:35.755
You know what I mean?

522
00:24:35.755 --> 00:24:37.755
Because the things that you need to do to
win a war...

523
00:24:37.755 --> 00:24:37.941
Like what was done in Germany or Japan in
World War II.

524
00:24:38.681 --> 00:24:44.306
That just doesn't, like, you know, muster
when you say, I'm trying to save the

525
00:24:44.306 --> 00:24:46.306
German people when you're firebombing
Dresden.

526
00:24:46.306 --> 00:24:47.930
I'm trying to save the Japanese people
when you're, you know, bombing Hiroshima

527
00:24:47.930 --> 00:24:49.930
or Tokyo.

528
00:24:49.930 --> 00:24:51.930
You know what I mean?

529
00:24:51.930 --> 00:24:53.549
There's a limit to what you can do in
warfare when that is your thing here.

530
00:24:53.889 --> 00:25:00.392
And when you have a war that you basically
started, which people don't think is a war

531
00:25:00.392 --> 00:25:00.512
of need,

532
00:25:00.692 --> 00:25:06.074
but a war of choice, you can't do the
things that you need to do to really win

533
00:25:06.074 --> 00:25:08.074
that war in the world of commerce.

534
00:25:08.074 --> 00:25:10.074
And so, at least not quickly.

535
00:25:10.074 --> 00:25:11.877
So that basically becomes a quagmire for
the US.

536
00:25:12.677 --> 00:25:16.699
So I don't see how this ends quickly
because the Iranian regime...

537
00:25:18.179 --> 00:25:22.340
must know that if they make an agreement
with America, they'll be bombed again in

538
00:25:22.340 --> 00:25:22.381
five years' time.

539
00:25:23.901 --> 00:25:25.021
Give me an investment idea.

540
00:25:25.101 --> 00:25:30.282
Give us an investment idea, whether it be
short-term, long-term, super long-term or

541
00:25:30.282 --> 00:25:32.282
for tomorrow.

542
00:25:32.282 --> 00:25:34.282
Is it sell?

543
00:25:34.282 --> 00:25:36.282
Is it as simple as sell?

544
00:25:36.282 --> 00:25:38.282
Is it buy oil?

545
00:25:38.282 --> 00:25:38.645
Is it stick with your AI portfolio as it
is?

546
00:25:39.185 --> 00:25:43.546
Is it subscribe to the SpaceX IPO? What
would you say?

547
00:25:43.906 --> 00:25:46.547
And I won't hold you to this or ran Swiss
to this.

548
00:25:47.647 --> 00:25:49.969
Okay, I'm going for what's called a
barbell strategy.

549
00:25:50.049 --> 00:25:51.550
So there's two parts to the investment.

550
00:25:51.610 --> 00:25:56.114
One part is the AI portfolio, is the
SpaceX, is the high-risk, high-return kind

551
00:25:56.114 --> 00:25:56.494
of stuff.

552
00:25:56.494 --> 00:25:57.915
It's the gold stocks, it's that kind of
stuff.

553
00:25:58.136 --> 00:25:59.196
You put a certain portion of your money
there.

554
00:25:59.497 --> 00:26:01.478
So if these things take off, you get the
upside.

555
00:26:01.479 --> 00:26:07.923
But a larger part of money, of your money,
your investment capital, you put in what's

556
00:26:07.923 --> 00:26:09.923
called capital-protected structures,

557
00:26:09.923 --> 00:26:16.290
where you basically protect your money
against a downturn, against craziness,

558
00:26:16.290 --> 00:26:18.290
where you say, I want to accept a 12% US
dollar return.

559
00:26:18.632 --> 00:26:24.576
But with the benefit of not having all the
money at risk or having maybe a third of

560
00:26:24.576 --> 00:26:26.576
the money protected against a downturn or
whatever it may be,

561
00:26:26.576 --> 00:26:27.178
that is the strategy right now.

562
00:26:27.179 --> 00:26:32.762
We are pushing clients significantly
towards structured products as well as, I

563
00:26:32.762 --> 00:26:34.762
mean, we still keep the AI portfolio.

564
00:26:34.762 --> 00:26:39.747
We still keep the high risk stuff because
it's quite possible that AI gets into a

565
00:26:39.747 --> 00:26:41.747
recursive improvement loop at which point
in time

566
00:26:41.747 --> 00:26:42.409
nothing else matters in the next two or
three years.

567
00:26:43.850 --> 00:26:45.771
And that becomes the new story of the
world.

568
00:26:46.399 --> 00:26:52.383
But in the meantime, you need to eat,
especially if you're retired, especially

569
00:26:52.383 --> 00:26:54.383
if you may be close to retirement or need
that capital for something.

570
00:26:54.383 --> 00:26:59.288
And in that situation, you want a certain
portion of your money, probably the larger

571
00:26:59.288 --> 00:27:01.288
portion of your money, in something that's
going to give you more of a guaranteed

572
00:27:01.288 --> 00:27:03.288
return.

573
00:27:03.288 --> 00:27:04.331
But for that guaranteed return, you're
also basically sacrificing upside.

574
00:27:04.351 --> 00:27:09.755
You're not going to get the super returns,
the market goes crazy, but you're

575
00:27:09.755 --> 00:27:11.755
basically giving yourself a bit more of a
guarantee.

576
00:27:11.755 --> 00:27:13.755
It's a barbell approach.

577
00:27:13.755 --> 00:27:15.719
It's I think what's really suitable for
this kind of weird point in time where we

578
00:27:15.719 --> 00:27:17.719
have massive risks.

579
00:27:17.719 --> 00:27:19.719
but also massive upside.

580
00:27:19.719 --> 00:27:21.719
You hardly ever have the risk and the
upside at the same time.

581
00:27:21.719 --> 00:27:21.829
Okay, lots to think about.

582
00:27:21.869 --> 00:27:23.129
Goodness me, my head is swimming.

583
00:27:23.209 --> 00:27:24.809
Viv, thanks so much for your time as
always.

584
00:27:25.110 --> 00:27:30.191
Viv Govender is from RAND Swiss, the
award-winning RAND Swiss, and that was not

585
00:27:30.191 --> 00:27:32.191
the 5 o'clock shadow.

586
00:27:32.191 --> 00:27:37.993
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

587
00:27:37.993 --> 00:27:39.993
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

588
00:27:39.993 --> 00:27:44.635
position, or opinion of any other agency,
organisation, employer, or company

589
00:27:44.635 --> 00:27:46.635
associated it.

590
00:27:46.635 --> 00:27:46.697
with strictlybusinesspodcast.com.

591
00:27:47.177 --> 00:27:54.144
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

592
00:27:54.144 --> 00:27:56.144
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

593
00:27:56.144 --> 00:28:00.330
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

594
00:28:00.330 --> 00:28:02.330
change, revision,

595
00:28:02.330 --> 00:28:02.472
and rethinking at any time.

596
00:28:02.773 --> 00:28:05.175
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
