WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:04.549 You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams. 2 00:00:05.369 --> 00:00:08.750 The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock 3 00:00:08.750 --> 00:00:08.850 shadow. 4 00:00:08.850 --> 00:00:15.572 And as always on a Thursday, I speak to Viv Govender from RAND Swiss in 5 00:00:15.572 --> 00:00:17.572 Johannesburg and David Shapiro from Sassfin Securities, 6 00:00:17.572 --> 00:00:19.572 currently in Boston. 7 00:00:19.572 --> 00:00:21.572 David, how was your trip from New York to Boston? 8 00:00:21.572 --> 00:00:23.572 Any problems? 9 00:00:23.572 --> 00:00:25.572 Or you went on the train, didn't you? 10 00:00:25.572 --> 00:00:27.572 No, I went on the train. 11 00:00:27.572 --> 00:00:29.572 I'm back in New York at the moment. 12 00:00:29.572 --> 00:00:31.572 I came back on Monday, so I'm back here. 13 00:00:31.572 --> 00:00:33.572 But nothing's changed. 14 00:00:33.572 --> 00:00:35.489 Still a very confused northeastern United States. 15 00:00:37.751 --> 00:00:40.954 I'm a prolific watcher of the news. 16 00:00:40.955 --> 00:00:41.714 Yes. 17 00:00:41.754 --> 00:00:45.398 And it's obvious that Mr. 18 00:00:45.438 --> 00:00:48.000 Trump is in a very difficult position. 19 00:00:48.120 --> 00:00:53.184 He's stranded in the middle, criticized by the right and criticized by the left, 20 00:00:53.565 --> 00:00:57.368 and not quite sure how to appease even the center. 21 00:00:57.948 --> 00:01:04.610 So, the certainty is certainly not in his favor, but he's just like one of those 22 00:01:04.610 --> 00:01:06.610 bunnies that you see at a fair. 23 00:01:06.610 --> 00:01:08.610 You know, you shoot it, it goes the other way. 24 00:01:08.610 --> 00:01:10.610 You shoot it, it runs, keeps reversing. 25 00:01:10.610 --> 00:01:13.633 You know, he's, I think, a lot of confusion at the moment. 26 00:01:14.273 --> 00:01:19.634 And I'm surprised that markets are holding up as well as they are, you know, 27 00:01:19.854 --> 00:01:21.595 considering the circumstances. 28 00:01:21.715 --> 00:01:25.456 But I think people here are getting very impatient. 29 00:01:26.096 --> 00:01:31.218 And, you know, want to know what he's thinking is, and that's not easy to 30 00:01:31.218 --> 00:01:33.218 establish. 31 00:01:33.218 --> 00:01:33.839 So it's very difficult. 32 00:01:33.939 --> 00:01:40.121 I was hoping, I was saying, oh, I hope Lindsay doesn't phone or I don't have to 33 00:01:40.121 --> 00:01:42.121 speak to Viv. 34 00:01:42.121 --> 00:01:44.121 I'm sitting here just looking at my screen. 35 00:01:44.121 --> 00:01:46.121 Did you hear that, Viv? 36 00:01:46.121 --> 00:01:48.121 He didn't want to speak to us. 37 00:01:48.121 --> 00:01:50.121 Did you know that? 38 00:01:50.121 --> 00:01:52.121 Even David Shapiro, even the implacable David Shapiro, Mr. 39 00:01:52.121 --> 00:01:54.121 Media himself. 40 00:01:54.121 --> 00:01:56.121 doesn't want to talk about it. 41 00:01:56.121 --> 00:01:58.121 That is how it is affecting people. 42 00:01:58.121 --> 00:02:00.121 That's how confusing, yeah. 43 00:02:00.121 --> 00:02:02.121 I agree with you. 44 00:02:02.121 --> 00:02:04.121 Lindsay, you know, that's how absolutely confusing it is. 45 00:02:04.121 --> 00:02:06.121 And, you know, clients ask you, well, what do we do? 46 00:02:06.121 --> 00:02:09.571 And, you know, from one minute to the next, it's all, when I say it's all over 47 00:02:09.571 --> 00:02:11.571 the place, you know, 48 00:02:11.571 --> 00:02:15.134 you wake up in the morning and markets can go up and down many times during the day. 49 00:02:15.214 --> 00:02:18.675 Yesterday we had a good day because there could have been some talks today. 50 00:02:18.755 --> 00:02:20.696 There's no talks and so on. 51 00:02:22.168 --> 00:02:24.669 Anyway, I just have the last word. 52 00:02:25.589 --> 00:02:30.611 Just before I came on to this, I was looking at YouTube, and I wanted to get 53 00:02:30.611 --> 00:02:30.931 the 54 00:02:31.111 --> 00:02:36.132 Holy Grail extract of Monty Python's Holy Grail 55 00:02:37.073 --> 00:02:43.955 YouTube piece of when they go to a castle and they want to 56 00:02:44.015 --> 00:02:47.316 seek shelter for the night, and it's a Frenchman's castle. 57 00:02:47.356 --> 00:02:51.837 I remember when he starts, insulting them that they smell like, you know, 58 00:02:51.877 --> 00:02:54.579 their mom smells like endelberries or whatever. 59 00:02:54.599 --> 00:02:55.499 It's hysterical. 60 00:02:56.479 --> 00:03:02.422 And, you know, the whole negotiation, and this is just Trump looking up at the 61 00:03:02.422 --> 00:03:04.422 Iranians and the Iranians, 62 00:03:04.422 --> 00:03:05.664 you know, sending down chickens, 63 00:03:05.744 --> 00:03:10.006 dead chickens and cows and melting them with anything they can find. 64 00:03:10.666 --> 00:03:14.748 And, you know, it just reminds me of the futility of where we are at the moment. 65 00:03:14.948 --> 00:03:20.452 It's futile, but it's unfortunately a little bit more dangerous than a few 66 00:03:20.452 --> 00:03:22.452 smelly chickens in a Monty Python film. 67 00:03:22.452 --> 00:03:22.674 And I know the clip you're talking about is still a classic. 68 00:03:23.895 --> 00:03:28.899 Viv, while David's looking that up, it is very dangerous indeed, 69 00:03:28.959 --> 00:03:35.764 because it's a war that was conceived and initiated on the whim of a 70 00:03:35.804 --> 00:03:41.368 person who's never had anything to do with being a soldier, has no military 71 00:03:41.368 --> 00:03:43.368 experience. 72 00:03:43.368 --> 00:03:43.549 and thinks he knows everything. 73 00:03:43.569 --> 00:03:48.650 So even when someone like Pete Hegseth, who's his Secretary of War, as he calls 74 00:03:48.650 --> 00:03:48.930 it, 75 00:03:48.930 --> 00:03:54.592 but still legally the Secretary of Defence, also hasn't really got the 76 00:03:54.592 --> 00:03:56.592 experience to be where he is. 77 00:03:56.592 --> 00:04:00.013 And so therefore they go in blindly because, as they say, they've got the best 78 00:04:00.013 --> 00:04:02.013 military in the world. 79 00:04:02.013 --> 00:04:05.055 You can have the worst military in the world and the best strategy and you've 80 00:04:05.055 --> 00:04:07.055 still got more of a chance. 81 00:04:07.055 --> 00:04:07.455 Viv, it's out of control now, don't you think? 82 00:04:08.976 --> 00:04:09.676 Yeah, look, I mean... 83 00:04:09.676 --> 00:04:11.998 The thing is that the problem is that they do have the best military in the world. 84 00:04:12.058 --> 00:04:15.940 That's the temptation, because you have this immensely powerful weapon. 85 00:04:16.761 --> 00:04:19.323 You can do anything you want militarily, virtually. 86 00:04:19.543 --> 00:04:22.965 And that's the temptation that Trump has, I think, kind of gotten into. 87 00:04:23.386 --> 00:04:27.048 The problem is that, as you mentioned, strategically, there's no way out of this 88 00:04:27.048 --> 00:04:27.429 thing. 89 00:04:27.769 --> 00:04:30.831 The straits of Amur, it's going to be very difficult to close that off. 90 00:04:30.832 --> 00:04:37.415 I'll get boots on the ground because you need to basically stop, you know, these 91 00:04:37.415 --> 00:04:39.415 small drones, these waterborne drones, 92 00:04:39.415 --> 00:04:41.415 even just flying ones. 93 00:04:41.415 --> 00:04:42.862 There's ones that's basically unmanned boats that can go on the water, that you 94 00:04:42.862 --> 00:04:44.862 need to stop that. 95 00:04:44.862 --> 00:04:49.205 And you get on the basically the shoreline of some islands, as well as on maybe the 96 00:04:49.205 --> 00:04:51.205 Iranian shoreline as well to stop that. 97 00:04:51.205 --> 00:04:53.567 You also have, you know, in fact, the Iranians now, strangely enough, 98 00:04:53.907 --> 00:04:57.008 are in a better fiscal situation in some ways than they were before the war. 99 00:04:57.028 --> 00:05:01.350 Because not only are they selling a little bit more oil than they were before, but 100 00:05:01.350 --> 00:05:03.350 they're selling at a significantly better price. 101 00:05:03.350 --> 00:05:05.052 And also their big allies in Russia are effectively. 102 00:05:05.467 --> 00:05:09.208 You know, I think the Russians are pretty much out of the stranglehold. 103 00:05:09.228 --> 00:05:11.469 You know, they've made a fortune with oil. 104 00:05:11.470 --> 00:05:13.809 They've made a fortune with fertilizer at the moment. 105 00:05:15.010 --> 00:05:17.270 And that, I think, is a big issue. 106 00:05:17.630 --> 00:05:20.251 And then finally, I mean, they should be keeping an eye on what's happening in 107 00:05:20.251 --> 00:05:20.532 China. 108 00:05:20.532 --> 00:05:26.913 Because the Chinese are looking at this and waiting for the Americans to get boots 109 00:05:26.913 --> 00:05:28.913 on the ground, get really tangled up in a quagmire, and then suddenly Taiwan's in 110 00:05:28.913 --> 00:05:30.913 trouble. 111 00:05:30.913 --> 00:05:32.554 And if you think the problem with oil is bad, wait till you see what happens when 112 00:05:32.554 --> 00:05:34.554 you take out 90% of the world's, you know, 113 00:05:34.554 --> 00:05:34.795 high-end chips. 114 00:05:35.239 --> 00:05:37.700 I mean, the world becomes a very different place. 115 00:05:38.440 --> 00:05:43.561 And all because, like I said, I think Trump and maybe Hexer, but I think Trump 116 00:05:43.561 --> 00:05:43.661 mainly, 117 00:05:43.741 --> 00:05:48.643 because we want to gather most people in the administration, with a few exceptions, 118 00:05:48.643 --> 00:05:50.643 who are very much against this thing. 119 00:05:50.643 --> 00:05:50.743 They don't know why Trump did it. 120 00:05:50.744 --> 00:05:52.884 They don't know exactly what made him do it at this point in time. 121 00:05:53.704 --> 00:05:59.806 And basically, yeah, it's a massively self-inflicted wound that he's done here. 122 00:06:00.246 --> 00:06:03.927 We're going to lose the midterm elections by a lot more, possibly lose the Senate. 123 00:06:04.423 --> 00:06:06.525 We're certainly going to lose this Congress, possibly lose the Senate. 124 00:06:06.805 --> 00:06:07.846 We lose those two houses. 125 00:06:08.246 --> 00:06:13.470 And given all of Trump's issues, I expect the next few years of his life are going 126 00:06:13.470 --> 00:06:15.470 to be a lot of, you know, 127 00:06:15.470 --> 00:06:20.335 interrogations in front of Senate committees and Congress committees, you 128 00:06:20.335 --> 00:06:22.335 know, like Bill Clinton was about the Mani Kulikwinski thing, you know, 129 00:06:22.335 --> 00:06:22.477 about Ronald Reagan was, you know, about Iran-Contra. 130 00:06:23.097 --> 00:06:24.999 And, but taken to another level. 131 00:06:25.819 --> 00:06:30.343 It's going to be a very, very tough period for the next couple of years, given stuff 132 00:06:30.343 --> 00:06:32.343 that he's done here. 133 00:06:32.343 --> 00:06:37.411 David, is anyone in New York or on any of the channels that you watch or any of the 134 00:06:37.411 --> 00:06:39.411 pages that you read, 135 00:06:39.411 --> 00:06:39.853 is anyone saying anything about Trump's health? 136 00:06:39.893 --> 00:06:44.216 Because it looked really, really bad when he was at that GOP fundraiser last night. 137 00:06:46.338 --> 00:06:49.900 I don't know where it was, but it was somewhere in Washington because he's back 138 00:06:49.900 --> 00:06:50.120 now. 139 00:06:50.300 --> 00:06:52.882 He looked awful and was slurring so badly. 140 00:06:54.363 --> 00:06:55.484 Surprisingly not. 141 00:06:55.544 --> 00:06:57.605 You know, I haven't, nothing's been like that. 142 00:06:58.106 --> 00:06:59.407 And I'm... 143 00:07:00.103 --> 00:07:06.005 Just surprised that everybody's been so calm, that they're just asking questions, 144 00:07:06.565 --> 00:07:09.226 but no direct criticism around him. 145 00:07:09.227 --> 00:07:15.887 It's coming in the, you know, you get it in places like I read The Atlantic or you 146 00:07:15.887 --> 00:07:17.887 read The Free Press or you read 147 00:07:17.887 --> 00:07:20.009 maybe The New York Times and places like that. 148 00:07:20.489 --> 00:07:23.489 You know, there's massive criticism, but nothing around his health. 149 00:07:24.070 --> 00:07:27.931 But it's, he pittens the blame now on Pete Hexeth. 150 00:07:28.131 --> 00:07:34.026 you know he he He put him in front of the firing squad by saying, oh, well, 151 00:07:34.146 --> 00:07:38.930 Pete came to me with a few generals, you know, worried about the nuclear bomb. 152 00:07:39.050 --> 00:07:43.353 And they were a short distance away from doing it a short time. 153 00:07:43.573 --> 00:07:45.814 You know, and funny enough, 154 00:07:45.894 --> 00:07:51.558 Pete Hexeth is a lot more articulate when he's asked to speak than Trump. 155 00:07:51.959 --> 00:07:55.121 You know, if he's put in front of a mine, he was a media person. 156 00:07:56.282 --> 00:07:58.263 So he's pretty articulate and he's... 157 00:07:58.771 --> 00:08:02.432 You know, his mind is well framed on the arguments, 158 00:08:02.952 --> 00:08:05.853 but you can see that Trump is floundering. 159 00:08:05.873 --> 00:08:11.875 You know, I don't think he was fully familiar with, he couldn't really make a 160 00:08:11.875 --> 00:08:13.875 decision and said, OK, 161 00:08:13.875 --> 00:08:14.816 I'll go with you boys, you know, let's bomb the hell out of Iran. 162 00:08:15.516 --> 00:08:17.616 So that's what it's come down to. 163 00:08:17.696 --> 00:08:20.677 But he's struggling to backpedal. 164 00:08:20.777 --> 00:08:24.498 You know, he's struggling to get himself out of this kogma. 165 00:08:25.239 --> 00:08:26.239 And I... 166 00:08:26.739 --> 00:08:33.324 Lindsay, the other thing is I'll wait for someone on the Democratic Party to rise. 167 00:08:33.404 --> 00:08:36.747 You know, there's no one coming through who's a powerful voice. 168 00:08:37.087 --> 00:08:38.608 Chuck Schumer, certainly not. 169 00:08:39.589 --> 00:08:43.411 Or Hakeem Jeffries, you know, on the House side of it. 170 00:08:43.812 --> 00:08:50.337 They're not the personalities that can actually stand up and really swing the 171 00:08:50.337 --> 00:08:52.337 Democratic Party, 172 00:08:52.337 --> 00:08:53.399 even though, and Viv is correct, I think. 173 00:08:53.799 --> 00:08:58.061 He's going to be swamped in the midterms should things continue like this. 174 00:08:58.481 --> 00:08:59.822 But that's at a different level. 175 00:08:59.842 --> 00:09:05.304 You know, it's a state level or sorry, it's an individual state level or 176 00:09:05.304 --> 00:09:07.304 alternatively, 177 00:09:07.304 --> 00:09:07.445 maybe in the House or Senate. 178 00:09:07.465 --> 00:09:09.506 But you need you need the cabinet. 179 00:09:09.546 --> 00:09:13.508 You need a strong leader who can actually get the vote for president. 180 00:09:14.008 --> 00:09:15.269 And no one's come across there. 181 00:09:15.309 --> 00:09:19.230 There's still a lot of dissension within the Democratic Party itself. 182 00:09:19.550 --> 00:09:20.311 How long can... 183 00:09:21.003 --> 00:09:24.845 Viv, I'll put this one to you because David's surprised that markets have held 184 00:09:24.845 --> 00:09:24.864 up so well. 185 00:09:24.905 --> 00:09:26.786 How long can markets hold up so well? 186 00:09:27.186 --> 00:09:33.329 S&P, I look now, down 0.7%. Oil price $106.07 a barrel. 187 00:09:34.589 --> 00:09:40.852 Every single economist worth his or her salt is now putting out their predictions 188 00:09:40.852 --> 00:09:42.852 for 2026. 189 00:09:42.852 --> 00:09:44.852 Brave people. 190 00:09:44.852 --> 00:09:46.134 If the oil price goes here, then inflation in the United States will go to 4.7%. 191 00:09:46.274 --> 00:09:47.315 All those little numbers. 192 00:09:47.575 --> 00:09:53.519 which, of course, are completely spurious because we don't know what the war is 193 00:09:53.519 --> 00:09:55.519 going to bring or how 194 00:09:55.519 --> 00:09:57.519 long it'll take to bring it. 195 00:09:57.519 --> 00:10:00.264 But at some stage, someone's going to say, you know, everything's negative now. 196 00:10:02.286 --> 00:10:07.470 The big tech companies are getting hit because children are depressed, that sort 197 00:10:07.470 --> 00:10:07.769 of thing, 198 00:10:07.769 --> 00:10:12.573 because of that lawsuit that came to fruition last night in Los Angeles. 199 00:10:12.954 --> 00:10:14.435 Everything is suddenly negative. 200 00:10:14.831 --> 00:10:16.633 Is it going to crack at some stage, i.e. 201 00:10:16.693 --> 00:10:19.617 more than 0.64% like we're seeing now on the S&P? 202 00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:21.979 Almost certainly. 203 00:10:22.200 --> 00:10:24.403 Look, I mean, what you can understand, of course, is that it's going to be... 204 00:10:25.282 --> 00:10:32.187 very uh you know regional as well if you just look at the differential between say 205 00:10:32.187 --> 00:10:34.187 for instance all prices in the us versus all prices in the middle 206 00:10:34.187 --> 00:10:39.131 east you know it's quite a massive differential and that basically comes 207 00:10:39.131 --> 00:10:41.131 through like in you know all prices are significantly higher 208 00:10:41.131 --> 00:10:44.595 than yours all prices so india and asia more completely affected so you're looking 209 00:10:44.595 --> 00:10:46.595 at things like philippines save emergency 210 00:10:46.595 --> 00:10:48.658 thailand they basically say work from home uh you talk about 211 00:10:48.698 --> 00:10:55.182 rationing of fuel etc that's possible out there these places are being much more 212 00:10:55.182 --> 00:10:57.182 effective The U.S. 213 00:10:57.182 --> 00:10:59.182 might have high inflation. 214 00:10:59.182 --> 00:11:01.182 It might have, say, 7%, 8% inflation. 215 00:11:01.182 --> 00:11:02.087 But they had the Biden administration, 9% of the highest. 216 00:11:02.107 --> 00:11:04.789 It's not really going to be much more than an irritation. 217 00:11:05.270 --> 00:11:10.273 But there's places in the world where this is going to be existential, especially in 218 00:11:10.273 --> 00:11:12.273 Asia and in Africa as well. 219 00:11:12.273 --> 00:11:15.437 Because, I mean, we talked about it before we started, but the fertilizer situation 220 00:11:15.437 --> 00:11:17.437 is horrendous. 221 00:11:17.437 --> 00:11:18.519 And somebody phrased it. 222 00:11:18.520 --> 00:11:19.860 I think it was a New York Times podcast. 223 00:11:19.861 --> 00:11:20.561 Somebody phrased it. 224 00:11:20.561 --> 00:11:22.662 They said, what we're going to have to do is we're going to have to. 225 00:11:22.942 --> 00:11:27.184 Find a price for oil that's going to destroy something between 10 and 20 226 00:11:27.184 --> 00:11:29.184 percent of global demand. 227 00:11:29.184 --> 00:11:29.946 Oil is a very inelastic commodity. 228 00:11:30.806 --> 00:11:34.348 You have to raise prices quite significantly, drop demand between 10 and 229 00:11:34.348 --> 00:11:34.429 20 percent. 230 00:11:35.889 --> 00:11:40.032 What's going to happen if you do that is that places like China, Europe and 231 00:11:40.032 --> 00:11:42.032 definitely the U.S. 232 00:11:42.032 --> 00:11:47.016 are going to be able to afford it much better than places in like, you know, for 233 00:11:47.016 --> 00:11:49.016 instance, India or, you know, some other poorer countries in Africa. 234 00:11:49.016 --> 00:11:51.058 And what's going to happen is that you're going to find a lot of oil being diverted. 235 00:11:51.414 --> 00:11:57.838 from these places to places that can pay the money number one number two when it 236 00:11:57.838 --> 00:11:59.838 comes to fertilizer we are going into you know 237 00:11:59.838 --> 00:12:04.902 springtime in the northern hemisphere look at a world map see how much of the world 238 00:12:04.902 --> 00:12:06.902 is in the north and how much of the farmland is in the north you know what i 239 00:12:06.902 --> 00:12:08.902 mean 240 00:12:08.902 --> 00:12:11.846 it's quite a bit um and then you're going to find these places not being able to get 241 00:12:11.846 --> 00:12:13.846 enough fertilizer maybe under fertilizing their crops 242 00:12:13.846 --> 00:12:19.695 lower yield it's sowing season viv i live in a rural area and all the tractors are 243 00:12:19.695 --> 00:12:21.695 out now they're plowing the fields and the seeds are 244 00:12:21.695 --> 00:12:26.419 going in and for that they need fertilizer and it's being choked off as you quite 245 00:12:26.419 --> 00:12:28.419 rightly say food prices will go through the roof if it 246 00:12:28.419 --> 00:12:31.463 continues and exactly and again people somewhere in the world are going to be 247 00:12:31.463 --> 00:12:33.463 much better able to 248 00:12:33.463 --> 00:12:34.945 pay that food price increase europe um north america etc 249 00:12:35.426 --> 00:12:41.630 some places especially sub-saharan africa it's going to be killing people i mean not 250 00:12:41.630 --> 00:12:43.630 i'm not to be hyperbolic here We are talking... 251 00:12:43.630 --> 00:12:45.630 the possibility of famine. 252 00:12:45.630 --> 00:12:46.012 And not just one or two thousands. 253 00:12:46.013 --> 00:12:47.793 It could be huge. 254 00:12:48.053 --> 00:12:50.515 And this is a global disaster. 255 00:12:51.495 --> 00:12:55.878 And the problem is that I don't, honestly, like I talked about a couple weeks ago, I 256 00:12:55.878 --> 00:12:57.878 don't see how this ends. 257 00:12:57.878 --> 00:12:59.878 I just don't know how it ends. 258 00:12:59.878 --> 00:13:02.181 There's a very good point that I just want to... 259 00:13:03.282 --> 00:13:06.624 I did the translation, particularly for South Africa. 260 00:13:08.065 --> 00:13:10.506 You're buying petrol here at 360. 261 00:13:11.186 --> 00:13:11.886 a gallon. 262 00:13:12.407 --> 00:13:16.970 It might be going up, you know, each petrol station can put their own price on. 263 00:13:18.091 --> 00:13:19.092 That's how free it is here. 264 00:13:19.112 --> 00:13:23.455 But let's call it 360, which translates to 16 rand a litre. 265 00:13:24.115 --> 00:13:25.696 You know, that's what it is. 266 00:13:25.697 --> 00:13:26.637 So that's what they pay. 267 00:13:27.798 --> 00:13:31.881 We're going up to 26 rand a litre in Johannesburg in South Africa. 268 00:13:32.641 --> 00:13:37.744 But there's another thing, and you mentioned it, you actually pointed out 269 00:13:37.744 --> 00:13:39.744 this, they can afford it. 270 00:13:39.744 --> 00:13:39.786 They earn four times more. 271 00:13:40.026 --> 00:13:40.726 than we do. 272 00:13:41.367 --> 00:13:45.209 You know, an American, the average American, in Rand terms, 273 00:13:45.210 --> 00:13:50.452 the average American salary is around about a million Rand a year, plus 1.1 274 00:13:50.452 --> 00:13:52.452 million. 275 00:13:52.452 --> 00:13:54.254 In South Africa, it works out at 300,000 or something. 276 00:13:54.274 --> 00:13:56.775 So that's the mean across all the income earners. 277 00:13:56.776 --> 00:14:00.657 I doubt it's 300,000 plus Africans. 278 00:14:00.917 --> 00:14:02.858 Well, I'm being generous. 279 00:14:03.019 --> 00:14:04.139 I'm being very generous. 280 00:14:04.199 --> 00:14:04.899 Yeah. 281 00:14:04.899 --> 00:14:05.560 You know what I mean? 282 00:14:05.560 --> 00:14:09.122 I'm being very, from that point of view, you know where I'm going to. 283 00:14:10.566 --> 00:14:15.688 because obviously even those who are earning a few million only fill up their 284 00:14:15.688 --> 00:14:17.688 tanks. 285 00:14:17.688 --> 00:14:20.749 You know, they use as much petrol as the person at the bottom end of the scale. 286 00:14:20.909 --> 00:14:26.851 So from a South Africa's point of view, and we've mentioned emerging markets, 287 00:14:26.851 --> 00:14:28.851 emerging countries, 288 00:14:28.851 --> 00:14:29.932 they're going to take one hell of a slam. 289 00:14:30.352 --> 00:14:34.433 And even the JSE is actually holding up a lot better than I thought it would. 290 00:14:34.673 --> 00:14:38.414 You know, Lindsay, the governor spoke today. 291 00:14:38.870 --> 00:14:40.932 I think he was very well balanced in that. 292 00:14:41.012 --> 00:14:41.712 But hawkish. 293 00:14:42.033 --> 00:14:44.355 You know, rates obviously didn't go down. 294 00:14:44.495 --> 00:14:45.195 Yeah, yeah. 295 00:14:45.736 --> 00:14:49.719 But I think he's got a very there are two things in South Africa. 296 00:14:50.119 --> 00:14:52.942 It's obviously, number one, supply. 297 00:14:53.562 --> 00:14:58.826 And the other is price and how this translates and how this filters through to 298 00:14:58.826 --> 00:15:00.826 our whole economy. 299 00:15:00.826 --> 00:15:03.971 Particularly where we use you know, people use taxis every day to get into town, 300 00:15:05.292 --> 00:15:08.054 to get to their jobs, you know, backwards and forwards and so on. 301 00:15:08.490 --> 00:15:13.755 I mean the impact on the low level of earners is going to be enormous. 302 00:15:14.536 --> 00:15:17.038 Tell me something, it's open to both of you. 303 00:15:17.589 --> 00:15:21.011 Inelastic demand for oil is one thing. 304 00:15:21.031 --> 00:15:25.314 You've also got a relatively inelastic demand for food you have to eat. 305 00:15:25.634 --> 00:15:27.896 Also shelter, you have to have a roof over your head. 306 00:15:28.216 --> 00:15:30.077 So that's essentially, I suppose, 307 00:15:32.299 --> 00:15:38.422 the three areas that can't be skimped upon in your household budget. 308 00:15:38.923 --> 00:15:42.265 If, therefore, one of them, oil, goes shooting up... 309 00:15:42.765 --> 00:15:49.468 It takes away from the discretionary spend on other things, you know, like David 310 00:15:49.468 --> 00:15:51.468 going off to having a cappuccino, etc. 311 00:15:51.468 --> 00:15:55.530 So there are certain areas of goods that are going to experience lower demand and 312 00:15:55.530 --> 00:15:57.530 therefore deflation. 313 00:15:57.530 --> 00:16:01.713 So the oil price going up, although statistically means CPI goes higher, in 314 00:16:01.713 --> 00:16:01.772 reality, 315 00:16:01.833 --> 00:16:07.215 certain people's baskets go down because prices are going down because they're not 316 00:16:07.215 --> 00:16:09.215 buying the stuff anymore. 317 00:16:09.215 --> 00:16:09.956 David, you're agreeing with me here. 318 00:16:10.396 --> 00:16:11.337 Absolutely right. 319 00:16:11.797 --> 00:16:12.497 pitch. 320 00:16:12.497 --> 00:16:13.814 That's what we don't understand. 321 00:16:13.854 --> 00:16:18.056 You know, the bulk of the people can handle it. 322 00:16:18.577 --> 00:16:20.958 I mean, sorry, very few people can handle it. 323 00:16:21.338 --> 00:16:26.781 But for the bulk of the people, it's going to have an enormous impact on, you know, 324 00:16:26.841 --> 00:16:32.184 maybe those who get a social grant of a few hundred rand a month or so on, you 325 00:16:32.184 --> 00:16:32.664 know, 326 00:16:32.664 --> 00:16:36.146 they'll continue to buy their vegetables and hopefully places like 327 00:16:36.487 --> 00:16:40.569 Checkers or ShopRite and that will keep those prices of absolute essentials down. 328 00:16:41.041 --> 00:16:43.643 you know, won't pass it on as they have done in the past. 329 00:16:44.183 --> 00:16:48.025 But I mean for, but even if you take logistic companies, 330 00:16:48.045 --> 00:16:52.228 if you take getting everything to harbor or something, 331 00:16:53.548 --> 00:16:57.070 the increase in price just eats into margins dramatically. 332 00:16:57.310 --> 00:17:01.653 And the other one, as Viv said, is fertilizer and chemicals. 333 00:17:01.913 --> 00:17:08.457 You know, we underrate, we underestimate the impact that this has on the chemical 334 00:17:08.457 --> 00:17:10.457 prices as well because 335 00:17:10.457 --> 00:17:12.522 Oil always is a massive input into that area. 336 00:17:13.862 --> 00:17:15.183 Okay, it all looks very grim. 337 00:17:15.923 --> 00:17:17.543 It really does. 338 00:17:18.124 --> 00:17:18.864 It really does. 339 00:17:19.104 --> 00:17:24.305 And I think there'll be strategists and people even cleverer than you two sitting 340 00:17:24.305 --> 00:17:26.305 down and saying, 341 00:17:26.305 --> 00:17:28.305 what does this mean for our portfolios? 342 00:17:28.305 --> 00:17:31.747 I've spoken to two portfolio managers, one in London and one in South Africa, 343 00:17:31.847 --> 00:17:36.889 who have been long of this market in various ways, whether it be copper, gold 344 00:17:36.889 --> 00:17:38.889 or... 345 00:17:38.889 --> 00:17:43.187 Platinum Group Metals producers, and they've all, they said, we've been really 346 00:17:43.187 --> 00:17:45.187 active in the last month. 347 00:17:45.187 --> 00:17:47.568 We have now gone overweight here and underweight there, etc. 348 00:17:47.848 --> 00:17:51.829 And I won't say what it is and who they were, but there have been significant 349 00:17:51.829 --> 00:17:53.829 changes. 350 00:17:53.829 --> 00:17:55.950 People are positioning themselves for a different future. 351 00:17:56.290 --> 00:18:01.892 People that think they're clever anyway are positioning themselves for a different 352 00:18:01.892 --> 00:18:03.892 future. 353 00:18:03.892 --> 00:18:05.993 Viv, I'm going to go to you now because I'm going to ask you, have you positioned 354 00:18:05.993 --> 00:18:07.993 yourself? 355 00:18:07.993 --> 00:18:13.319 differently over the last month since this war began yes i mean look uh uh on a 356 00:18:13.319 --> 00:18:13.419 personal level i 357 00:18:13.419 --> 00:18:20.284 bought an electric car um you know um which one have you got please tell us 358 00:18:20.284 --> 00:18:22.284 which one you bought what did 359 00:18:22.284 --> 00:18:25.968 you buy if you're going to get the chinese brands i've got a cherry uh so it's 360 00:18:25.968 --> 00:18:26.268 basically 361 00:18:26.268 --> 00:18:31.553 quite cheap it's it's it's it's like cheap cheap for like you know obviously we do we 362 00:18:31.553 --> 00:18:33.553 are more present in our point here 363 00:18:33.553 --> 00:18:35.836 But compared to what you would consider the comparable kind of things out there 364 00:18:35.836 --> 00:18:37.836 from a BMW or a Toyota. 365 00:18:37.836 --> 00:18:38.159 This is a hybrid, though, hey? 366 00:18:38.160 --> 00:18:38.860 It's a hybrid, yeah. 367 00:18:38.860 --> 00:18:39.539 It's a hybrid. 368 00:18:39.539 --> 00:18:40.921 Yeah, it's a hybrid. 369 00:18:40.922 --> 00:18:41.622 It's a plug-in hybrid. 370 00:18:41.842 --> 00:18:47.266 So you can plug it into your electricity supply if you have solar, or you can put 371 00:18:47.266 --> 00:18:47.486 petrol in. 372 00:18:47.486 --> 00:18:50.389 But I think what I wanted to mention here is that we talk about petrol. 373 00:18:50.689 --> 00:18:54.953 The diesel price is going up more than 50%, 5-0% next week. 374 00:18:55.554 --> 00:18:59.217 Now, as much as petrol is, from a personal point of view, fuel petrol. 375 00:18:59.673 --> 00:19:02.915 But diesel is by far the most important source of power in the world. 376 00:19:03.316 --> 00:19:09.960 It's tractors, it's bulldozers, it's trucks, it's planes, it's ships, it's 377 00:19:09.960 --> 00:19:11.960 mining equipment. 378 00:19:11.960 --> 00:19:13.960 All these things are diesel. 379 00:19:13.960 --> 00:19:18.806 The price of diesel has been up 50 plus percent from 18 to 28 next week. 380 00:19:20.347 --> 00:19:23.569 That's basically well more than 50 percent, so it's about 60 percent up next 381 00:19:23.569 --> 00:19:23.869 week. 382 00:19:24.190 --> 00:19:28.693 Already we started to see in South Africa, there's questions about people basically 383 00:19:29.033 --> 00:19:35.957 you know stockpiling it because remember if you're on a farm or you're in a in a 384 00:19:35.957 --> 00:19:37.957 construction place not taking your bulldozer or your tractor to the 385 00:19:37.957 --> 00:19:42.901 petrol station you're taking a tank you know what i mean and filling it up there 386 00:19:42.901 --> 00:19:44.901 and these guys have the ability to go and buy if you had a thousand liter tank uh 387 00:19:44.901 --> 00:19:49.685 basically you're paying 18 000 runs this week next week you'll be paying 28 000 388 00:19:49.685 --> 00:19:51.685 runs for a thousand liter tank of diesel 389 00:19:51.685 --> 00:19:55.809 that's a huge huge uh you know so we obviously come through in a very big way 390 00:19:55.809 --> 00:19:57.809 but in terms of my own personal thing i 391 00:19:57.809 --> 00:19:58.234 I've got a lot more cautious for clients. 392 00:19:58.655 --> 00:20:04.149 I've argued like in the last like week or two, the last month or two actually, that 393 00:20:04.149 --> 00:20:06.149 I think that, you know, 394 00:20:06.149 --> 00:20:12.630 Having things that are more capital protected, you know, basically capping 395 00:20:12.630 --> 00:20:14.630 upside for protection of your capital is probably a good idea right now. 396 00:20:14.630 --> 00:20:17.471 The last year we had the local stock market going 50% in dollars, 5-0% in 397 00:20:17.471 --> 00:20:17.771 dollars. 398 00:20:17.791 --> 00:20:19.352 We had, you know, huge returns in Europe. 399 00:20:19.652 --> 00:20:25.934 We had, you know, even the US, which is basically the laggard in the world, was 400 00:20:25.934 --> 00:20:27.934 still up double digits, you know, which is unusual. 401 00:20:27.934 --> 00:20:31.855 You know, usually positive in terms of like just how the average return of the US 402 00:20:31.855 --> 00:20:33.855 markets usually are. 403 00:20:33.855 --> 00:20:33.856 But this... 404 00:20:34.236 --> 00:20:40.000 next couple of years, it's probably not going to be like that, unless we have the 405 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:42.000 AI revolution coming about and really pushing things to new levels. 406 00:20:42.000 --> 00:20:42.302 But I do think this is the case. 407 00:20:42.802 --> 00:20:49.466 We are going to see uncertainty really skyrocket over the next couple of months, 408 00:20:49.466 --> 00:20:51.466 because I still think when you watch big traders in the US, 409 00:20:51.466 --> 00:20:53.349 you watch people in the markets, they're still talking about a quick solution to 410 00:20:53.349 --> 00:20:53.770 this. 411 00:20:53.770 --> 00:20:55.791 Like I said, I don't know what the quick solution is. 412 00:20:56.711 --> 00:21:03.316 I think the Iranians right now are looking at themselves and saying, we now control 413 00:21:03.316 --> 00:21:05.316 20% of the world at right we are the 414 00:21:05.316 --> 00:21:09.581 The largest, you know, have the control of the large amount of oil in the world, more 415 00:21:09.581 --> 00:21:11.581 than the US, more than Russia, more than anybody. 416 00:21:11.581 --> 00:21:12.383 We basically are making more money now than people in the past. 417 00:21:12.403 --> 00:21:15.346 Like it's $136 million a day they're making at the moment. 418 00:21:16.086 --> 00:21:19.429 And also, if we give in to these guys, we are probably going to die. 419 00:21:20.550 --> 00:21:22.832 You know, that's the answer to it. 420 00:21:22.892 --> 00:21:23.592 Right? 421 00:21:24.433 --> 00:21:25.494 And that's just the Iranians. 422 00:21:25.694 --> 00:21:30.178 The Chinese are looking at us and saying, the Americans are about to get into a new, 423 00:21:30.178 --> 00:21:32.178 what do you call this, you know, Vietnam. 424 00:21:32.178 --> 00:21:32.179 Or New York, I don't know what you're going to think about it. 425 00:21:33.100 --> 00:21:36.802 Russians are saying to themselves, well, we basically have ended all the stuff. 426 00:21:37.062 --> 00:21:41.024 The Indians are saying to themselves, we listened to the Americans and cut off our 427 00:21:41.024 --> 00:21:43.024 Russian supply. 428 00:21:43.024 --> 00:21:45.227 And now we have, by some measures, maybe a month or so of reserves left over. 429 00:21:46.507 --> 00:21:49.509 And Europe and Africa and the whole world is readjusting. 430 00:21:50.069 --> 00:21:56.893 And quite frankly, Trump, I think, like I said, after the next couple of months, is 431 00:21:56.893 --> 00:21:58.893 going to be virtually a lame duck. 432 00:21:58.893 --> 00:22:01.236 So that's another aspect to look at as well. 433 00:22:01.996 --> 00:22:07.341 Unfortunately, as David said, the people that are coming on the other side, the 434 00:22:07.341 --> 00:22:09.341 Democrats, are probably going to win the next election. 435 00:22:09.341 --> 00:22:11.764 Unfortunately, not really going to Mars, the place you want to be. 436 00:22:11.944 --> 00:22:12.965 You want some centrist people. 437 00:22:12.966 --> 00:22:14.967 You want some people that are going to come about and basically be in the middle. 438 00:22:15.187 --> 00:22:17.949 And unfortunately, what's happened here is that people are just going to the bases. 439 00:22:18.310 --> 00:22:25.115 And you're going to have some of the most left-wing communist people ever being 440 00:22:25.115 --> 00:22:27.115 elected to Congress and to Senate. 441 00:22:27.115 --> 00:22:30.800 And the people that are going to run for the US presidency from the left are not 442 00:22:30.800 --> 00:22:32.800 the central people. 443 00:22:32.800 --> 00:22:35.102 There are going to be people that are going to be much more left-wing than 444 00:22:35.102 --> 00:22:37.102 you've ever had in the past. 445 00:22:37.102 --> 00:22:42.145 There's a good article by David Brooks, who I don't know if anyone's read him. 446 00:22:44.506 --> 00:22:45.926 I think he wrote it in The Atlantic. 447 00:22:45.966 --> 00:22:52.029 He calls it, America needs what he calls a trimmer, someone in the middle, you know, 448 00:22:52.549 --> 00:22:59.532 who listens to both sides and adjusts, can swing, doesn't matter, you know, but still 449 00:22:59.532 --> 00:23:01.532 does it for the people, you know, 450 00:23:01.532 --> 00:23:03.532 can. 451 00:23:03.532 --> 00:23:08.179 He gave an example, and I'm trying to think in politics of where he, you know, 452 00:23:08.179 --> 00:23:10.179 he, oh, he went all the way back to 453 00:23:10.179 --> 00:23:11.602 James II, when William the Orange. 454 00:23:11.622 --> 00:23:16.346 Oh, yes. 455 00:23:16.406 --> 00:23:20.889 Exiled to France, and William of Orange was invited to be King of England. 456 00:23:21.030 --> 00:23:22.951 This is in the late 1600s, I think. 457 00:23:23.952 --> 00:23:25.393 You know your English history a lot. 458 00:23:25.394 --> 00:23:27.595 No, I drifted off when you mentioned English history. 459 00:23:27.675 --> 00:23:28.736 Actually, sorry, David. 460 00:23:29.136 --> 00:23:30.657 I didn't like my history teacher. 461 00:23:30.658 --> 00:23:36.822 But, I mean, he mentioned that the Duke of Halifax was in the middle. 462 00:23:36.902 --> 00:23:40.064 He supported both sides, and they called him a trimmer. 463 00:23:41.085 --> 00:23:46.229 And I think America needs someone like that who can come in the middle and bring 464 00:23:46.229 --> 00:23:48.229 both sides together. 465 00:23:48.229 --> 00:23:48.331 There's one point I must make. 466 00:23:51.256 --> 00:23:57.238 America's got as much oil as it wants, it's got as much diesel as it wants, but 467 00:23:57.238 --> 00:23:59.238 you pay the international price. 468 00:23:59.238 --> 00:24:01.238 There's no shortage. 469 00:24:01.238 --> 00:24:04.181 It's just that because that's what economics is about, that's what free 470 00:24:04.181 --> 00:24:06.181 markets are. 471 00:24:06.181 --> 00:24:09.303 Even though they're producing as much as they need and they've got as much power as 472 00:24:09.303 --> 00:24:09.583 they need, 473 00:24:09.583 --> 00:24:12.745 you pay a much higher price and that is going to have an effect. 474 00:24:13.285 --> 00:24:19.547 Also, they're almost immune from the rest of the world because they're not an 475 00:24:19.547 --> 00:24:21.547 exporting nation in terms of it. 476 00:24:21.547 --> 00:24:23.547 You know, they can't survive. 477 00:24:23.547 --> 00:24:26.528 That's one of the dangers of all of this is that you don't feel it in the streets 478 00:24:26.528 --> 00:24:26.708 here. 479 00:24:26.708 --> 00:24:32.153 You know, you're not going to feel it in the streets as much as you feel it in the 480 00:24:32.153 --> 00:24:34.153 rest of the world. 481 00:24:34.153 --> 00:24:38.538 And I'm particularly, I think Europe is very, very vulnerable, you know, for the 482 00:24:38.538 --> 00:24:40.538 reasons that we've discussed here as well. 483 00:24:40.538 --> 00:24:42.000 And emerging markets, particularly emerging Africa. 484 00:24:42.601 --> 00:24:43.462 Okay. 485 00:24:43.463 --> 00:24:46.264 I think those are the weak points of all of this. 486 00:24:46.584 --> 00:24:52.989 OK, the question that I put to Viv and he sidestepped it, except right at the end 487 00:24:52.989 --> 00:24:54.989 when he said there was a note of caution, 488 00:24:54.989 --> 00:24:56.989 he said he'd bought a cherry or something. 489 00:24:56.989 --> 00:24:58.989 David, what about you? 490 00:24:58.989 --> 00:25:01.536 Are you still stoically for your portfolio? 491 00:25:02.377 --> 00:25:05.820 It's well positioned and you think it might even not be war proof, 492 00:25:05.920 --> 00:25:11.925 but more resilient to the war and the effect of the war, 493 00:25:12.065 --> 00:25:15.948 the long term effects of the war than most other portfolios. 494 00:25:16.773 --> 00:25:17.473 I think so. 495 00:25:17.473 --> 00:25:22.816 You know, I'm very concentrated in the choices that we make. 496 00:25:22.856 --> 00:25:26.717 And I'm not quite prepared to forfeit them at these kind of levels. 497 00:25:26.797 --> 00:25:30.679 Also, you know, when you forfeit them and sell, you pay huge amounts of tax. 498 00:25:31.259 --> 00:25:36.161 And then when you want to come in, you know, you'll end up coming in at perhaps 499 00:25:36.161 --> 00:25:38.161 higher prices than you went out. 500 00:25:38.161 --> 00:25:39.842 But I'm not buying anything at the moment and I'm not putting fresh money in. 501 00:25:40.503 --> 00:25:45.225 I'm staying where we are at the moment, you know, just just watching how this 502 00:25:45.225 --> 00:25:47.225 plays out. 503 00:25:47.225 --> 00:25:52.248 Viv was right, I think, saying that I think what the market is doing at the 504 00:25:52.248 --> 00:25:54.248 moment, it's pricing. 505 00:25:54.248 --> 00:25:54.428 Or is this you, Lindsay, pricing in a quick end? 506 00:25:55.249 --> 00:25:56.149 That's why prices are holding. 507 00:25:56.409 --> 00:26:03.352 I think it just looks back at previous experiences with war and other 508 00:26:03.352 --> 00:26:05.352 geopolitical events and even liberation days. 509 00:26:05.352 --> 00:26:07.352 And they say, oh, it doesn't matter. 510 00:26:07.352 --> 00:26:09.352 It's all going to blow over. 511 00:26:09.352 --> 00:26:09.935 I just want to read you something that came up on LinkedIn today. 512 00:26:10.375 --> 00:26:11.955 And it's via TikTok. 513 00:26:11.975 --> 00:26:15.717 So it's two social media platforms. 514 00:26:16.489 --> 00:26:19.471 coming together and it says this is from 515 00:26:19.891 --> 00:26:26.416 Putin listen carefully Mr Trump hitting hard very Iran hitting Iran very hard 516 00:26:27.336 --> 00:26:34.281 uh let me start it again sorry it's going very quickly listen carefully because this 517 00:26:34.281 --> 00:26:36.281 message is direct you speak you speak about hitting Iran 518 00:26:36.281 --> 00:26:40.005 hard you talk about destruction more bombs let me remind you of something important 519 00:26:40.685 --> 00:26:46.769 History has seen many leaders who believed they could control the fire of war, and 520 00:26:46.769 --> 00:26:48.769 every one of them learned the same lesson. 521 00:26:48.769 --> 00:26:51.653 Fire spreads, Iran must surrender, you say Iran is finished, 522 00:26:51.693 --> 00:26:57.457 but war in the Middle East is not a television show, and it's not a business 523 00:26:57.457 --> 00:26:59.457 deal that can be won with threats. 524 00:26:59.457 --> 00:27:03.522 If the US continues this reckless path, if Washington pushes the region closer to 525 00:27:03.522 --> 00:27:03.682 chaos, 526 00:27:03.802 --> 00:27:07.805 then do not be surprised when the consequences travel far beyond Iran. 527 00:27:08.225 --> 00:27:12.366 Russia will not watch silently while other nations are threatened with destruction. 528 00:27:12.686 --> 00:27:14.947 The world is already standing on the edge. 529 00:27:15.027 --> 00:27:16.107 My advice is simple. 530 00:27:16.507 --> 00:27:21.209 Stop speaking the language of bombs before the world answers back in the language of 531 00:27:21.209 --> 00:27:21.590 war. 532 00:27:21.590 --> 00:27:27.130 Because once that door opens, no president, no army and no superpower will 533 00:27:27.130 --> 00:27:29.130 easily close it again. 534 00:27:29.130 --> 00:27:31.130 Now remember that, Mr. 535 00:27:31.130 --> 00:27:33.130 Trump. 536 00:27:33.130 --> 00:27:34.893 And that is supposed to be what Putin said in the last 24 hours. 537 00:27:35.253 --> 00:27:36.253 whether it's been... 538 00:27:36.553 --> 00:27:38.975 claimed by him or not, whether it's true, I don't know. 539 00:27:39.235 --> 00:27:42.897 I was thinking about a pot and kettle here, you know what I mean? 540 00:27:42.898 --> 00:27:43.598 Yeah. 541 00:27:46.440 --> 00:27:53.164 But it's very interesting that Donald Trump is the only person in the world that 542 00:27:53.164 --> 00:27:55.164 can make you like Putin and make you think, oh, Mr. 543 00:27:55.164 --> 00:27:57.164 Putin's actually right this time. 544 00:27:57.164 --> 00:27:59.164 It's extraordinary. 545 00:27:59.164 --> 00:28:01.164 I doubt whether he would have said anything like that. 546 00:28:01.164 --> 00:28:03.164 No, I doubt it as well. 547 00:28:03.164 --> 00:28:05.853 Who went on to Ukraine and who's battling at the moment, losing thousands of 548 00:28:05.853 --> 00:28:07.853 soldiers a day. 549 00:28:07.853 --> 00:28:13.865 but there was a lot of sense in whoever said that he's got yeah yeah but anyway i 550 00:28:13.865 --> 00:28:15.865 i don't think he's got the energy to to 551 00:28:15.865 --> 00:28:21.028 divert his attention elsewhere he's still trying to beat over ukraine which is now 552 00:28:21.028 --> 00:28:23.028 four years old yes it 553 00:28:23.028 --> 00:28:25.351 is four years and uh one and a half months actually it's horrible let's 554 00:28:25.371 --> 00:28:31.354 have a look at the markets now the dollar around is 1704 that didn't last long did 555 00:28:31.354 --> 00:28:33.354 it uh british pound against the round 556 00:28:33.354 --> 00:28:38.029 2276 euro around 1968 euro dollar 115 50 the gold price This is weird. 557 00:28:38.510 --> 00:28:40.370 It doesn't respond to it. 558 00:28:40.750 --> 00:28:44.432 It responds in completely the opposite way that it should do. 559 00:28:44.472 --> 00:28:47.333 In other words, geopolitical tension rises, i.e. 560 00:28:47.373 --> 00:28:49.174 the war against Iran. 561 00:28:50.654 --> 00:28:51.615 It should be rising. 562 00:28:51.755 --> 00:28:58.598 But because the dollar rises, the dollar is now the recipient of safe haven funds, 563 00:28:58.598 --> 00:29:00.598 and therefore the gold price goes down. 564 00:29:00.598 --> 00:29:02.439 So gold is 44.50, down 1.2%. 565 00:29:02.519 --> 00:29:06.381 Platinum, down another 4% now at 18%. 566 00:29:07.481 --> 00:29:09.602 David, you were calling this three, four weeks ago. 567 00:29:10.442 --> 00:29:12.723 Palladium, 1367, down 568 00:29:13.783 --> 00:29:18.624 4.6%. Let's have a look at the all-important oil price and a couple of 569 00:29:18.624 --> 00:29:20.624 other things as well. 570 00:29:20.624 --> 00:29:23.586 Brent crude oil spot price, 107.78. 571 00:29:23.606 --> 00:29:26.267 You'll see the market is in what's called a backwardation. 572 00:29:26.287 --> 00:29:29.968 In other words, the spot price is higher than the futures price. 573 00:29:30.648 --> 00:29:36.769 So if you look at your futures price on a site like investing.com, It's something 574 00:29:36.769 --> 00:29:38.769 like $101. 575 00:29:38.769 --> 00:29:41.631 But the actual spot price, if you want to buy oil now, it's close to $108 a barrel. 576 00:29:42.211 --> 00:29:44.772 West Texas crude, $94.31. 577 00:29:44.812 --> 00:29:46.312 That's 4.4% higher. 578 00:29:46.313 --> 00:29:48.293 Brent incident is up 5.5%. 579 00:29:48.294 --> 00:29:49.533 Natural gas prices up 2%. 580 00:29:50.453 --> 00:29:53.914 Gasoline, $3.13 a gallon, up nearly 4%. 581 00:29:54.194 --> 00:29:56.315 Heating oil up 6.5%. 582 00:29:56.755 --> 00:30:00.956 Copper price down 0.8%, $5.48. 583 00:30:00.976 --> 00:30:03.297 South African 10-year bond yield after the Reserve Bank today. 584 00:30:03.717 --> 00:30:08.619 Lefty rates unchanged, 8.99%, which is also unchanged on the day. 585 00:30:08.719 --> 00:30:09.419 U.S. 586 00:30:09.419 --> 00:30:12.500 10-year, 4.39%. 587 00:30:12.501 --> 00:30:14.120 Recent high about 4.45%. 588 00:30:14.180 --> 00:30:20.462 S&P 500 futures down 0.7%, 65.94% for the June futures. 589 00:30:21.082 --> 00:30:25.023 And the Bitcoin price doesn't know whether it likes war or doesn't like war. 590 00:30:25.024 --> 00:30:29.985 It's 69,046, which is down 2.5%. 591 00:30:30.025 --> 00:30:34.527 David, have you been looking at the JSC today or have you been worrying about 592 00:30:34.527 --> 00:30:36.527 other things? 593 00:30:36.527 --> 00:30:41.571 Have you seen any shares moving up or down that surprised you or didn't surprise you? 594 00:30:42.391 --> 00:30:43.091 Well, 595 00:30:44.092 --> 00:30:50.235 what's interesting is that exactly what we said when we were talking about who would 596 00:30:50.235 --> 00:30:50.595 be 597 00:30:51.355 --> 00:30:54.457 the best place to be would be in like ShopRite or Boxer. 598 00:30:55.097 --> 00:31:01.759 or pick and pay at the bottom end of the grocery market or in the grocery market 599 00:31:01.819 --> 00:31:03.119 rather than in clothing. 600 00:31:03.440 --> 00:31:06.040 So on the top end, you've got ShopRite and Boxer. 601 00:31:06.080 --> 00:31:07.561 On the bottom end, you've got Mr. 602 00:31:07.621 --> 00:31:14.483 Price and TrueWorths and retailers like that who I think are going to clothing 603 00:31:14.483 --> 00:31:16.483 retailers who are likely to suffer more 604 00:31:16.483 --> 00:31:18.484 than perhaps the grocers. 605 00:31:18.544 --> 00:31:21.865 So just a quick observation. 606 00:31:22.317 --> 00:31:29.080 But the JSC was down just one and a quarter percent, which I thought held up 607 00:31:29.080 --> 00:31:31.080 better than, you know, 608 00:31:31.080 --> 00:31:31.141 I would have expected more of a sell-off. 609 00:31:31.922 --> 00:31:34.183 But it's widespread right across the board. 610 00:31:34.243 --> 00:31:35.063 Everything's down. 611 00:31:35.603 --> 00:31:37.524 Volume's still quite good for Lindsay. 612 00:31:37.564 --> 00:31:38.865 We're seeing $28 billion. 613 00:31:39.785 --> 00:31:40.485 trade there. 614 00:31:40.485 --> 00:31:43.968 But there's a lot of speculation on a day-to-day basis. 615 00:31:44.068 --> 00:31:48.731 And naturally, with that gold price not performing, I think it's done. 616 00:31:52.473 --> 00:31:58.216 It's more likely to be $3,000 than it is going to be $5,000 or $5,500, any new 617 00:31:58.216 --> 00:31:58.396 highs. 618 00:31:59.197 --> 00:32:00.017 Same with platinum. 619 00:32:00.018 --> 00:32:04.380 I think once the speculators get hurt, they don't come back quickly. 620 00:32:04.460 --> 00:32:06.221 And also, they've got to lick their wounds. 621 00:32:06.581 --> 00:32:07.282 caught by a modern... 622 00:32:07.283 --> 00:32:08.923 You're quite right, yeah. 623 00:32:09.303 --> 00:32:10.604 It's a psychological thing now. 624 00:32:10.684 --> 00:32:12.966 Once you've lost once, you don't go straight back in there. 625 00:32:13.026 --> 00:32:15.709 Once bitten, twice shy, I think the phrase is. 626 00:32:16.189 --> 00:32:20.813 On the board on the day, we've got ShopRite up three and three quarters 627 00:32:20.813 --> 00:32:22.813 percent, Boxer up 3.3, 628 00:32:22.813 --> 00:32:24.916 Tungela is either up or it's down this thing, depending on Mr. 629 00:32:24.956 --> 00:32:25.656 Trump. 630 00:32:25.656 --> 00:32:30.941 2.4 percent higher, Sassel up nearly 2 percent, 219 rand and 50 cents per share. 631 00:32:31.001 --> 00:32:31.701 Mr. 632 00:32:31.701 --> 00:32:38.187 Price down 3.7, Anglo-American down three and a third, Valtteri, 3.2% in the red, 633 00:32:38.187 --> 00:32:40.187 Impala Platinum, 634 00:32:40.187 --> 00:32:42.187 same thing. 635 00:32:42.187 --> 00:32:44.187 And Nusper is coming in with a 2.9% loss. 636 00:32:44.187 --> 00:32:45.513 Viv, if you were a social media tech company, 637 00:32:45.914 --> 00:32:52.639 if you were a Google or a Meta or even YouTube, would you be worried about what 638 00:32:52.639 --> 00:32:54.639 happened yesterday, 639 00:32:54.639 --> 00:32:56.639 that ruling in Los Angeles? 640 00:32:56.639 --> 00:32:58.639 Yes, I would. 641 00:32:58.639 --> 00:32:58.684 I mean, remember, there's been cases in the past. 642 00:32:58.704 --> 00:33:02.047 I mean, remember the Tuffington Power case for Johnson & Johnson. 643 00:33:02.448 --> 00:33:08.659 You can recall the Because the breast implant cases as well back in the day, 644 00:33:08.659 --> 00:33:10.659 especially mental health, 645 00:33:10.659 --> 00:33:12.659 it's going to be very hard to prove things. 646 00:33:12.659 --> 00:33:16.542 And in those cases, the talcum powder case and the breast implant cases, the science 647 00:33:16.542 --> 00:33:18.542 was quite weak in terms of proving causation. 648 00:33:18.542 --> 00:33:21.124 And yeah, I mean, how are you going to prove causation in terms of why are you 649 00:33:21.124 --> 00:33:21.224 depressed? 650 00:33:21.924 --> 00:33:22.685 It's a social media. 651 00:33:23.165 --> 00:33:25.886 How can you be certain that the social media caused your depression? 652 00:33:26.266 --> 00:33:29.067 But I do think that, first of all, these guys are unliked. 653 00:33:29.447 --> 00:33:31.268 And so they are likely to face some kind of thing. 654 00:33:31.269 --> 00:33:33.109 You saw Elon Musk, for instance, recently lose the case. 655 00:33:33.389 --> 00:33:40.313 uh for the twitter you know acquisition where there's two billion dollars there i 656 00:33:40.313 --> 00:33:42.313 think that uh they went against him for um again i think 657 00:33:42.313 --> 00:33:47.277 it's basically a case where you're unpopular you're not going to get too much 658 00:33:47.277 --> 00:33:49.277 support for the public uh and therefore you probably face a lot of 659 00:33:49.277 --> 00:33:54.141 these kind of cases coming forward and jury cases are going to rule against the 660 00:33:54.141 --> 00:33:56.141 rich guy in favor of the poor young support person that you can 661 00:33:56.141 --> 00:34:01.125 say was harmed by this thing so yeah i do think it's going to be an issue um and you 662 00:34:01.125 --> 00:34:03.125 know if you call back i mean people have mentioned the tobacco 663 00:34:03.125 --> 00:34:04.567 cases I think that's the kind of stuff that you might find happening here as 664 00:34:04.567 --> 00:34:04.988 well, 665 00:34:04.988 --> 00:34:09.051 especially as these companies become more and more powerful with AI in the future. 666 00:34:09.932 --> 00:34:11.213 Thank you very much for that, gentlemen. 667 00:34:11.253 --> 00:34:11.953 Thank you very much. 668 00:34:12.474 --> 00:34:14.216 We went around the houses today, didn't we? 669 00:34:15.917 --> 00:34:18.700 We had fake TikTok Putin speeches. 670 00:34:18.920 --> 00:34:20.301 We've had doom and gloom. 671 00:34:20.441 --> 00:34:23.003 We've had electric cars and everything. 672 00:34:23.744 --> 00:34:24.705 It's really interesting. 673 00:34:25.105 --> 00:34:29.049 And I think a lot of the things that we've said today are going to come to. 674 00:34:29.409 --> 00:34:36.175 to fruition in in other words this is not going to be a quick in and out like 675 00:34:36.175 --> 00:34:38.175 venezuela it is going to become protracted just a 676 00:34:38.175 --> 00:34:43.040 question of who who cleans up the mess and how the how the markets react but i i 677 00:34:43.040 --> 00:34:45.040 firmly believe that there's there's 678 00:34:45.040 --> 00:34:50.046 more to come it's there's there's too much sanguine behavior from the really big 679 00:34:50.046 --> 00:34:52.046 players like blackrock with 14 680 00:34:52.046 --> 00:34:53.349 trillion and i saw an interview with one of actually 681 00:34:53.369 --> 00:34:57.833 the ceo of blackrock yesterday and he almost said if it continues 682 00:34:58.153 --> 00:35:00.434 then our policy changes completely. 683 00:35:00.514 --> 00:35:02.694 So anyway, we'll find out. 684 00:35:02.774 --> 00:35:03.655 Thank you very much again. 685 00:35:03.875 --> 00:35:05.195 Viv Govendous from Ranswiss. 686 00:35:05.215 --> 00:35:07.156 David Shapirius from Sasson Securities. 687 00:35:07.157 --> 00:35:09.136 And that was the 5 o'clock shadow. 688 00:35:09.956 --> 00:35:16.898 The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and 689 00:35:16.898 --> 00:35:18.898 various contributors and do not reflect the policy, 690 00:35:18.898 --> 00:35:20.639 position or opinion of any other agency, organisation, 691 00:35:20.960 --> 00:35:25.601 employer or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com. 692 00:35:26.061 --> 00:35:33.024 Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other 693 00:35:33.024 --> 00:35:35.024 entity other than the speaker or the author. 694 00:35:35.024 --> 00:35:38.507 And since we are critically thinking human beings, these views are always subject to 695 00:35:38.507 --> 00:35:38.626 change, 696 00:35:38.787 --> 00:35:41.348 revision and rethinking at any time. 697 00:35:41.668 --> 00:35:44.069 Please do not hold us to them in perpetuity.