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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the five o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Thursday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

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I don't think I've ever seen such
ridiculous volatility.

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And not volatility from the beginning of
the week to the end of the week, Skulk.

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It's every single day.

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And sometimes there are three different
market trends during one day.

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You wake up in the morning and the Far
East is down and the U.S.

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futures are down maybe 1% or something.

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And then someone wakes up in the morning,
we won't say who, and says something.

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And then the markets reverse.

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And then in the evening, people say, well,
wait a second, we don't believe him.

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So it goes in the opposite direction
again.

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It's all over the place.

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It's extraordinary.

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And thank goodness we're not traders,
Skulk.

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Thank goodness you're a long-term
investor.

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Yeah, thank goodness.

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I was sitting on Monday and listening to a
commentator

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reading out the top performers and the
worst performers for the day.

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And I think it was the first or the best
or the second.

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Yeah, the best performer was Cecil,

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but the second best performer was the
worst performer for Monday.

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But I mean, the second best performer was
Anglos.

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And he said, oh, this is fun.

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Fantastic.

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Anglo-American, that is up there.

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It's actually end of the day, 6%, 6 point
something percent higher.

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And then I just realized, wait a minute,
this morning I switched on my computer.

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And one of the first things that caught
me, because it's in the A's, that caught

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me, I was Anglo-American being down
something like

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8%. So that specific day, don't quote me,
it could have been 12, it could have been

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14%.

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But that specific day, one of the largest
stocks on the day is at a swing from being

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down close to

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6-odd percent, ending the day as one of
the top performing, ending up 6%.

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And likewise with some of these other
companies.

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I think, you know, I like following my
goals sometimes.

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And goldfields that specific day, that was
down 10-point-something percent during the

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morning,

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ended the day close to 2% positive.

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So that's in a sort of a one sentence or
two sentence summing up the current

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market conditions.

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You will literally have a market that
could swing 5%, 6% either way.

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And that's showing us the type of
volatility, this type of uncertainty.

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Because the bulls can't decide, you know,
is the bears actually winning?

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And likewise for the bears.

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It's this massive, massive.

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I see, you know that thing that usually
stands in front of the New York Stock

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Exchange?

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We had it on bulls and bears as well.

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That bear that's trying to pull down this
bull.

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Yes, the famous statue, yes, yeah.

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I'm seeing that every day.

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I mean, this is now the best analogy for
markers that we're currently seeing.

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I think it was Monday morning, and what
had happened was over the weekend, Donald

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Trump had woken up and thought he should
have a bit of a punt over the

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weekend.

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So he put some market making news out
there.

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He says you've got 48 hours.

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And if you don't open the Straits of
Hormuz within 48 hours,

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I'm going to obliterate you.

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Take out all your energy infrastructure.

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You know the story.

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And everyone was worrying.

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And then on Monday, the markets opened and
gold was down in dollar terms 10%

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because the dollar was stronger.

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But U.S.

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bond yields spiked.

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Market indices were all substantially
lower.

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And then he said, I don't know, and I'll
give you another five days.

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And the markets went through the roof.

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But gold was down at 4,100 or something.

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At the end of the day, it was 4,450 or
something ridiculous.

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Three $400 swings in gold.

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It's astonishing.

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And I thought of you, and I thought, how
do you get on the phone this morning to

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your clients?

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And then what do you say in the afternoon
when it's reversed?

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It's testing your communication skills,
Emma.

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I must say.

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Four seasons in one day.

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But Elaine, did you read, I don't know the
truth, I don't know the source, but I read

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somewhere there was this massive,

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massive trade in the options market that
literally something like 20 minutes or

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just literally just before that

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Trump's truth report.

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Five minutes actually in some cases.

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Yeah, it's something like that.

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We're this massive, massive long on the
S&P 500.

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We're talking about one or two million
dollars.

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We're talking about a massive long
position in the S&P 500 and a massive

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short position in

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oil.

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You know, that can't be.

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That can't be just a coincidence.

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No, of course it can't.

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Nobody's that skillful.

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And the other thing is that it came from
several different sources.

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And one of the platforms that was used
apparently was Polymarket.

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I don't know if you follow Polymarket.

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It's a very sophisticated trading platform
where you can literally punt on

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anything.

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But anyway, the point is Polymarket had
some deals and they're looking at it.

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But if you're going to inside a trade and
you're too big to go to one particular

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platform in

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isolation, you have to go elsewhere.

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And I bet every single other platform
would take a decent order.

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was getting the same sort of orders as
well.

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And we know what it was.

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We know from where it stemmed.

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But of course, will it ever be followed
up?

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I very much doubt it during this current
administration.

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Someone knew something from right from the
top, I think, Skull, don't you?

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For sure, for sure.

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Like I said, it just can't be a
coincidence.

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It's absolutely not.

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But I mean, that's the current market
conditions.

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Wars are not only...

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A fort with missiles and the A's and boots
on the ground, it's not being done.

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in financial markets.

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That's a crazy war.

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That's a crazy war.

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But anyway.

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Yes, but anyway, the important thing is,
what have you done?

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Have you done anything?

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Are you still sitting with your positions,
but just a little bit slightly,

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a slightly more frazzled scalp, though,
than the last time we spoke, which

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incidentally you were two weeks ago
because of technical problems last week.

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Yeah, Lindsay, I think you know I've been

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been been been been having this this
podcast for for many many years and and

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you know over the past few months uh i've
been

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really cautious and and that cautiousness
did to a certain extent um made me

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take some chips off the table so

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to speak um but but i'm not just my
portfolio's currently is is sitting with

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the the largest

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cash position um

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I don't think it had a larger cash
position in COVID.

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So it's definitely sitting more
defensively.

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But now you need to start looking.

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Start looking at opportunities.

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Your magnificent seven.

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I saw a heat map today of the S&P 500.

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And when you look at the map, it sort of
looked red.

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But it's only red, well, mostly red with
these magnificent sevens.

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not so magnificent anymore.

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But if you look at the rest of the S&P
500,

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it's actually held up pretty solidly in
this really turmoil market because when

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you look at

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the remaining, let's call it 493 stocks,
they're mostly positive, they're mostly

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green.

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So we've seen a bit of a disconnect coming
from that side as well.

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And that's going to create some
opportunities.

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When you look at the likes of Microsoft,
that is now down 31%, 32%.

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It's still the second largest company, one
of the best managed companies,

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and a product which has been the largest
company 25 years, and we will most

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probably sit here,

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you and I, 25 years from now.

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Yeah, of course.

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I'll be here in the same seat talking to
you, Scott.

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Absolutely no problem.

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Same nonsense, I'll talk to you.

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You'll say the same rubbish back to me.

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Yeah, of course we will be.

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Carry on.

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But I think...

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Kids, grandkids, those people will still
have Microsoft around.

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And giving you the opportunity now to buy
something 31% cheaper than what you would

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have bought it.

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I agree with you entirely.

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It's a blue chip.

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And if it's down 31%, there's a reason
it's down 31%

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because of AI purportedly taking over
software data that

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Microsoft has developed and has made its
fortune on.

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But Microsoft isn't stupid.

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Microsoft will turn it around.

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It's not like BlackBerry or something like
that, which went out the window.

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We never saw it again.

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Microsoft will bounce back, I think.

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And that's not a trading recommendation,
by the way, or an investment

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recommendation.

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What about Tesla?

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Also technically in a bear market, more
than 20% off its highs.

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I mean, you can think what you like about
Musk, and I don't like him at all.

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I think he's a reprehensible character.

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But goodness me, he's clever.

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And something will happen to Tesla that
will...

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get it back in its position as the top of
the heap of electric vehicles and whatever

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else is attached

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to the Tesla share price at the time that
he's dreamed up.

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So I think if you are liquid, Skulk, then
there are lots of opportunities for you.

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But I'm saying this humbly, don't rush in
yet because I think there's a lot more to

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come.

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No, I looked at some ETFs yesterday.

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And it's just themes.

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It always gives you a nice one where you
look at and I do it per calendar year,

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and I've done it for the past close to 10
years, where you look at I take a

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commodity ETF,

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MSCI world value, MSCI world growth,
developed markets, emerging markets, all

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these different themes.

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And it's interesting when you look at it.

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And where we sit in currency, you pretty
much got to repeat.

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of the theme that we've seen in 2022,
where commodities are currently leading.

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You had in second place, but quite far
down second place, we had value stocks,

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which usually tend to do better in
volatile, uncertain times,

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where you see some people go back to
valuations rather than hype.

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And usually at the bottom of the list in
2022, it's no different.

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where the U.S.

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growth stocks were the worst performers.

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And when you look at the current year to
date, that is like following that trend to

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the T.

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And the only difference is we're not
nearly done.

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We're not even close to seeing the lows
that we've seen in 2022.

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And I do feel And that doesn't make me a
bear,

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but I do feel that valuations are still
more stretched than we've seen it in 2022.

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And I do think that our environment
compared to a, let's call it a

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post-current environment,

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I think is worse.

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It's worse than the environment that we've
seen three years ago.

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So, yes, I agree in totality with you.

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I think people shouldn't look at this as
this is the buying opportunity for the

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broad market.

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The market has done what it's done.

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JSE, I think on one stage, was off 15%
from its highest.

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That's as bad as it's going to get back
in.

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I think you should be a stock picker.

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Really be selective on what you buy.

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I won't go and buy the S&P 500 now,

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but I do think to start nibbling on
something like Microsoft is not a bad

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idea.

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I wouldn't necessarily go out and buy the
JSE, but going into a like stuff, a

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Richemont,

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which is 22% down year to date, Fifth
worst performing stock on the JSE.

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A company that's, I still think, you know,
luxury goods are defensive products.

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But also when you look at the Richmond,
Richmond's sitting with 7.6 billion euros

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in cash, no debt.

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7.6 billion.

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00:12:50.547 --> 00:12:54.092
What do you think they're going to do with
this cash in this, let's call it, bad

241
00:12:54.092 --> 00:12:56.092
market environment?

242
00:12:56.092 --> 00:12:56.333
They'll also look for opportunities.

243
00:12:56.613 --> 00:12:58.934
and when things recovery eventually again.

244
00:12:59.235 --> 00:13:01.216
So that's where I'm at currently.

245
00:13:01.376 --> 00:13:08.180
I still sit with a large amount of cash,
but I do see some opportunities sticking

246
00:13:08.180 --> 00:13:08.320
out.

247
00:13:08.360 --> 00:13:13.423
Do I think the market has done, did we see
the correction?

248
00:13:13.644 --> 00:13:17.466
No, I still think this volatile,

249
00:13:18.246 --> 00:13:22.149
let's call it uncertain environment is
going to persist for the next few weeks.

250
00:13:22.509 --> 00:13:28.693
Okay, I hope your mind is mossy now and
fertile, Scott, because I'm going to ask

251
00:13:28.693 --> 00:13:30.693
you a question.

252
00:13:30.693 --> 00:13:32.693
And it does sound as though it is.

253
00:13:32.693 --> 00:13:34.693
Okay, so here's the question.

254
00:13:34.693 --> 00:13:37.738
I believe that the gold price peaked that
day that I said it would peak or the day

255
00:13:37.738 --> 00:13:37.817
before

256
00:13:38.218 --> 00:13:39.078
I said it would peak.

257
00:13:39.098 --> 00:13:45.542
And it did peak at $5,626 per ounce
intraday on the futures market.

258
00:13:45.602 --> 00:13:47.563
Okay, it's not the spot market, it's the
futures market.

259
00:13:47.883 --> 00:13:50.645
The spot market was less than that.

260
00:13:51.585 --> 00:13:52.585
because of the contango.

261
00:13:52.905 --> 00:13:57.287
Now, it is currently 4,555.

262
00:13:57.307 --> 00:13:58.287
That's the spot price.

263
00:13:59.487 --> 00:14:06.029
Is there a chance that the gold shares
will continue to be in a bull

264
00:14:06.109 --> 00:14:12.051
market and may even go higher and may go
to new highs simply because of the

265
00:14:12.051 --> 00:14:14.051
earnings that will come through,

266
00:14:14.051 --> 00:14:17.572
even with a gold price $1,000 per ounce
less than the peak it achieved?

267
00:14:17.873 --> 00:14:19.233
Or have we seen the peak?

268
00:14:20.201 --> 00:14:26.867
In Lindsay Williams' world, have we seen
the peak in both the gold price in US

269
00:14:26.867 --> 00:14:28.867
dollar terms and also the shares in RAND
terms,

270
00:14:28.867 --> 00:14:30.867
for example, on the JSC?

271
00:14:30.867 --> 00:14:32.867
That's my question of the week for you.

272
00:14:32.867 --> 00:14:33.412
Can I answer you next year this time?

273
00:14:34.453 --> 00:14:36.174
Yeah, that works.

274
00:14:36.175 --> 00:14:38.096
No, no, Lindsay, I've got to answer for
you.

275
00:14:38.636 --> 00:14:42.739
So we had this golf association there in
the,

276
00:14:43.100 --> 00:14:45.862
let's call it the build-up to the highs in
gold.

277
00:14:45.902 --> 00:14:48.944
And you called it absolutely spot on.

278
00:14:49.665 --> 00:14:52.206
It was maybe a day or two left.

279
00:14:52.626 --> 00:14:54.507
It was one day early, yeah.

280
00:14:54.508 --> 00:14:55.507
Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly.

281
00:14:55.527 --> 00:15:02.170
It was spot on, But we also had the
conversation to the buildup.

282
00:15:02.611 --> 00:15:08.913
You often ask me, are the miners reacting
exactly the same as the gold miners

283
00:15:08.913 --> 00:15:10.913
reacting,

284
00:15:10.913 --> 00:15:12.913
the actual gold miners?

285
00:15:12.913 --> 00:15:14.913
So, well, originally, the gold miners did.

286
00:15:14.913 --> 00:15:17.717
But that, let's call it January, February,
the gold miners sort of, as if the market

287
00:15:17.717 --> 00:15:19.717
didn't.

288
00:15:19.717 --> 00:15:22.752
believe the gold price will stay at those
$5,000, $5,400 level,

289
00:15:23.252 --> 00:15:28.655
which now subsequently shown to be the
right view to have.

290
00:15:29.615 --> 00:15:32.557
These miners are, look at the gold fields.

291
00:15:32.937 --> 00:15:38.320
They mine their gold still at current
levels at $1,800 per ounce.

292
00:15:38.360 --> 00:15:41.022
When you look at Anglo Gold, similar
story.

293
00:15:41.122 --> 00:15:46.385
Harmony, a little bit higher, they $2,000,
$2,100 per ounce.

294
00:15:46.565 --> 00:15:47.265
But, but.

295
00:15:49.366 --> 00:15:50.066
Let's call it average.

296
00:15:50.426 --> 00:15:51.806
Let's make it $2,000.

297
00:15:52.726 --> 00:15:57.488
Our miners are mining this metal, $2,000,
and they're still selling it,

298
00:15:57.508 --> 00:16:01.389
$4,000, $4,500.

299
00:16:01.429 --> 00:16:06.070
They've still got a gross profit margin of
more than 50%.

300
00:16:06.210 --> 00:16:08.791
They're still sitting with zero debt.

301
00:16:09.211 --> 00:16:10.891
None of these miners really got debt
anymore.

302
00:16:11.772 --> 00:16:12.852
And so they're pumping cash.

303
00:16:13.012 --> 00:16:14.752
So, yes, I do agree with you.

304
00:16:14.892 --> 00:16:16.513
I will feel to your question.

305
00:16:16.833 --> 00:16:19.174
that eventually as the results come
through,

306
00:16:19.655 --> 00:16:25.859
that it's going to surprise the market and
gold miners will justify

307
00:16:27.059 --> 00:16:28.440
that it's because of the price levels it's
trading.

308
00:16:28.840 --> 00:16:29.861
But here's the thing.

309
00:16:30.709 --> 00:16:31.629
Here's the thing.

310
00:16:31.990 --> 00:16:34.571
I'm looking at this war and we can go left
or right.

311
00:16:34.931 --> 00:16:39.673
I'm not going to try and call an end to
the war because that'll just be stupid.

312
00:16:40.053 --> 00:16:44.655
Because as you just mentioned, Trump went
from,

313
00:16:45.175 --> 00:16:52.138
we're going to blow up every power station
in Iran if you don't do this and this and

314
00:16:52.138 --> 00:16:54.138
this by

315
00:16:54.138 --> 00:16:56.138
noon that time.

316
00:16:56.138 --> 00:16:56.920
And hours later, he said, well, hey, there
we go.

317
00:16:57.260 --> 00:17:00.361
Now we've got a great tool to date.

318
00:17:00.661 --> 00:17:07.546
conversation and we're going to not attack
Iran for five days and yeah and Iran went

319
00:17:07.566 --> 00:17:14.550
like what did we miss and we're clearly on
the same WhatsApp group so we're not going

320
00:17:14.550 --> 00:17:14.730
to try and

321
00:17:14.730 --> 00:17:17.212
call but eventually hopefully

322
00:17:18.413 --> 00:17:25.298
all these parties will sit around the
table and we'll see an end to this war

323
00:17:25.298 --> 00:17:27.298
what will happen then

324
00:17:27.298 --> 00:17:30.001
so firstly nobody will convince me

325
00:17:30.737 --> 00:17:37.440
that that inflation is not going to kick
up from current levels nobody it already

326
00:17:37.440 --> 00:17:39.440
is it's bubbling skunk we've seen all the
good

327
00:17:39.440 --> 00:17:44.403
numbers we've seen the good number from
south africa at three percent we've seen

328
00:17:44.403 --> 00:17:46.403
the good number from the united states at
2.4 percent forget

329
00:17:46.403 --> 00:17:48.825
those numbers even if it's just transient
remember

330
00:17:48.826 --> 00:17:55.587
that phrase transient oh yeah even if it's
just six months the point is it'll shock

331
00:17:55.587 --> 00:17:57.587
the markets and you can see the bond
market for

332
00:17:57.587 --> 00:17:58.949
goodness sake the u.s 30 year nearly went
to 5%.

333
00:17:59.529 --> 00:18:00.229
The U.S.

334
00:18:00.230 --> 00:18:01.931
10-year was in the mid-440s.

335
00:18:02.691 --> 00:18:07.555
People know that inflation numbers are
going to be horrible in the next three to

336
00:18:07.555 --> 00:18:09.555
six months.

337
00:18:09.555 --> 00:18:11.555
Yeah.

338
00:18:11.555 --> 00:18:15.781
And then you get certain very intelligent
individuals that keep on explaining to us

339
00:18:15.781 --> 00:18:17.781
that, yes,

340
00:18:17.781 --> 00:18:19.744
inflation is going to be a problem, but
we're going to be running into a

341
00:18:19.744 --> 00:18:21.744
recession.

342
00:18:21.744 --> 00:18:23.744
When I say we, the U.S.

343
00:18:23.744 --> 00:18:24.728
are going to be running into a recession
way before then.

344
00:18:27.002 --> 00:18:33.646
Nobody's going to convince me again that
this is not going to put a lid on economic

345
00:18:33.646 --> 00:18:35.646
growth worldwide.

346
00:18:35.646 --> 00:18:36.287
What we're seeing and experiencing
currently,

347
00:18:37.568 --> 00:18:44.032
I'm convinced that that's going to
negatively impact economic growth globally

348
00:18:44.032 --> 00:18:46.032
and could even

349
00:18:46.032 --> 00:18:46.413
put countries, U.S.

350
00:18:46.453 --> 00:18:48.054
specifically, in a recession.

351
00:18:48.494 --> 00:18:49.695
So see where I'm getting.

352
00:18:50.095 --> 00:18:52.977
We're already saying we're going to see
higher inflation.

353
00:18:53.669 --> 00:19:00.413
I'm telling you, we're going to see a much
lower economic growth than people

354
00:19:00.413 --> 00:19:02.413
forecasted going into

355
00:19:02.413 --> 00:19:04.413
2026.

356
00:19:04.413 --> 00:19:08.337
And we've already seen the employment
numbers coming out from the US not really

357
00:19:08.957 --> 00:19:09.998
shooting the lights out.

358
00:19:11.339 --> 00:19:12.499
You again, see where I'm going.

359
00:19:12.619 --> 00:19:15.761
There's a stagflation written all over it.

360
00:19:16.061 --> 00:19:22.945
But then on the other hand, you've got
President Trump that made it blatantly

361
00:19:22.945 --> 00:19:24.945
clear before he went to do this walk.

362
00:19:24.945 --> 00:19:27.627
On that Fox interview in February, he said
three things.

363
00:19:28.287 --> 00:19:30.088
He said, firstly, the U.S.

364
00:19:30.528 --> 00:19:35.210
should undoubtedly have the lowest
interest rates in the world.

365
00:19:35.870 --> 00:19:36.991
Secondly, a 1%

366
00:19:37.311 --> 00:19:43.734
drop in the interest rates or the Fed
interest rates should see an

367
00:19:44.754 --> 00:19:50.797
increase in the GDP of 600 billion U.S.
dollars.

368
00:19:51.237 --> 00:19:57.549
and I 2% drop in interest rates could wipe
the deficit in totality, which I don't

369
00:19:57.549 --> 00:19:57.709
believe,

370
00:19:57.709 --> 00:19:58.289
but that's what he said.

371
00:19:58.570 --> 00:19:59.270
Nonsense.

372
00:19:59.510 --> 00:20:02.793
Everything you've just said is nonsense,
but it's not what you're saying.

373
00:20:02.813 --> 00:20:04.734
It's just what you're reporting upon.

374
00:20:04.874 --> 00:20:07.616
It's not going to happen.

375
00:20:07.617 --> 00:20:10.458
It might be not going to happen, but we
know he's going to try.

376
00:20:10.718 --> 00:20:11.879
That's Trump.

377
00:20:12.880 --> 00:20:13.580
He's going to try.

378
00:20:13.580 --> 00:20:19.004
So when the dust settles around the
conflict in the Middle East, which might

379
00:20:19.004 --> 00:20:21.004
take some time,

380
00:20:21.004 --> 00:20:23.004
we know the next step will be.

381
00:20:23.004 --> 00:20:25.004
We're going to lower interest rates.

382
00:20:25.004 --> 00:20:25.126
We're going to lower interest rates to the
lowest level.

383
00:20:25.306 --> 00:20:29.187
We're going to try and reach the lowest
levels in the world.

384
00:20:29.587 --> 00:20:31.648
And what's that going to create?

385
00:20:31.748 --> 00:20:34.029
Well, that's going to create a much, much
weaker dollar.

386
00:20:35.149 --> 00:20:39.810
And you've got a much weaker dollar,
you've got a much higher gold price.

387
00:20:39.811 --> 00:20:45.232
So, yes, I think that the gold price or
the move that we've seen from

388
00:20:46.172 --> 00:20:46.992
$5,000-odd, you're right.

389
00:20:48.012 --> 00:20:50.053
That was the anticipation of the most.

390
00:20:52.022 --> 00:20:56.807
or let's call it the price of the most
anticipated war ever.

391
00:20:56.967 --> 00:20:59.950
Everybody knew this war was going to
happen in Iran.

392
00:21:00.390 --> 00:21:04.854
And the gold price just reflected that
prior to the actual shots being fired.

393
00:21:05.395 --> 00:21:10.540
But now, did it change the reason why you
should be investing in gold?

394
00:21:10.560 --> 00:21:11.260
Hell no.

395
00:21:11.340 --> 00:21:16.185
I think it's actually now even more
important to have some gold in your

396
00:21:16.185 --> 00:21:16.405
portfolio.

397
00:21:17.292 --> 00:21:17.992
Very good.

398
00:21:18.212 --> 00:21:21.535
Good speech, Skull, and well backed up.

399
00:21:22.176 --> 00:21:23.717
I hope you are right.

400
00:21:23.897 --> 00:21:25.599
Now, let's have a look at some numbers,
shall we?

401
00:21:25.600 --> 00:21:29.883
Because I've got a confusion here, a
conundrum.

402
00:21:29.903 --> 00:21:36.148
Actually, I look at a site called
investing.com and I look at a site called

403
00:21:36.148 --> 00:21:38.148
the CRB

404
00:21:38.148 --> 00:21:40.148
Index site.

405
00:21:40.148 --> 00:21:42.148
It's from Trading Economics.

406
00:21:42.148 --> 00:21:44.148
But anyway, we'll get to that in a moment.

407
00:21:44.148 --> 00:21:46.148
But anyway, what I do know is...

408
00:21:46.148 --> 00:21:47.278
The dollar round is 1691, which has barely
changed from yesterday.

409
00:21:47.298 --> 00:21:52.943
The British pound against the round 2263
with the pound slightly weaker against the

410
00:21:52.943 --> 00:21:53.263
round.

411
00:21:53.503 --> 00:21:57.607
And the euro round is 1958,

412
00:21:57.608 --> 00:22:00.589
a third of a percent down for the euro.

413
00:22:02.090 --> 00:22:04.232
Euro dollar is 115.75.

414
00:22:04.233 --> 00:22:05.493
Let's get on to commodities now.

415
00:22:05.494 --> 00:22:11.858
I've got the gold price at 4560, let's
call it, which is up around about 2%.

416
00:22:12.867 --> 00:22:17.528
The Platinum price is up 2.75% to 19.45%

417
00:22:18.008 --> 00:22:23.910
and the Palladium price is up 3.25% at
14.39%.

418
00:22:24.150 --> 00:22:26.251
As I speak, my internet goes down.

419
00:22:26.331 --> 00:22:28.511
You've had some problems in that
department.

420
00:22:28.531 --> 00:22:30.612
So I'll give you another couple of pages.

421
00:22:30.972 --> 00:22:36.393
I've got the South African 10-year bond
yield at 8.97%, which is 6.5 basis points

422
00:22:36.393 --> 00:22:36.413
weaker.

423
00:22:36.734 --> 00:22:39.454
So it's changed its big figure from 9 to
8.

424
00:22:39.455 --> 00:22:41.655
the S&P 500 futures.

425
00:22:41.939 --> 00:22:46.182
are 66.59, which is up 0.8%, I think.

426
00:22:46.763 --> 00:22:48.704
And what else have we got?

427
00:22:48.724 --> 00:22:52.487
The US 10-year bond, that's been
interesting.

428
00:22:52.527 --> 00:22:53.467
It's been fascinating.

429
00:22:53.487 --> 00:22:58.411
The bond market suddenly, as you get
older, becomes more interesting than all

430
00:22:58.411 --> 00:23:00.411
the other things like Bitcoin.

431
00:23:00.411 --> 00:23:00.533
4.32%.

432
00:23:00.534 --> 00:23:01.333
Speaking of Bitcoin,

433
00:23:01.713 --> 00:23:08.518
Bitcoin is sort of establishing itself
around this 69 to 71 level in the

434
00:23:08.579 --> 00:23:09.279
short term.

435
00:23:09.319 --> 00:23:13.062
It's now 71,278, Skulk.

436
00:23:13.063 --> 00:23:14.643
Yeah, my internet is definitely down.

437
00:23:14.704 --> 00:23:16.445
What have you got for oil?

438
00:23:16.545 --> 00:23:18.326
Because I've got two different oil prices.

439
00:23:20.028 --> 00:23:21.389
Let's quickly see.

440
00:23:21.849 --> 00:23:28.195
Because I've got oil at Brent crude at
like 101.40 on my CRB screen.

441
00:23:28.695 --> 00:23:34.240
And yet on my investment.com screen, it
says it's 96.60, which is correct.

442
00:23:34.260 --> 00:23:37.863
There's obviously a difference between the
futures markets that they're looking at.

443
00:23:38.695 --> 00:23:44.598
One's looking at, for example, the March
expiry and the next one's looking at April

444
00:23:44.598 --> 00:23:46.598
or something like that.

445
00:23:46.598 --> 00:23:48.598
What have you got?

446
00:23:48.598 --> 00:23:51.943
I've got the Brent price in front of me
and that's currently trading at 101.52.

447
00:23:51.944 --> 00:23:55.424
That's down, let's call it, just close to
3% from the back.

448
00:23:55.685 --> 00:23:56.385
Exactly.

449
00:23:56.385 --> 00:23:57.466
That's exactly what I've got as well.

450
00:23:59.127 --> 00:24:01.648
And West Texas Intermediary is 89.88.

451
00:24:02.809 --> 00:24:04.550
It's below $90 now.

452
00:24:05.310 --> 00:24:06.951
Yeah, I've got that as well.

453
00:24:07.615 --> 00:24:10.137
OK, so that's what we'll go with.

454
00:24:10.838 --> 00:24:15.461
Oil price above $100 a barrel, let's call
it that, and that is horrible for the

455
00:24:15.461 --> 00:24:17.461
world economy.

456
00:24:17.461 --> 00:24:20.444
It doesn't matter if it stays there and
doesn't go to the new highs of $120, $150,

457
00:24:20.464 --> 00:24:22.966
even some people calling it $200 per
barrel.

458
00:24:23.226 --> 00:24:27.910
The fact is that it was, at some stage in
the last 52 weeks,

459
00:24:28.270 --> 00:24:31.072
$58.40 per barrel.

460
00:24:31.392 --> 00:24:33.634
So it's doubled in price, essentially.

461
00:24:33.934 --> 00:24:35.515
And we've got to get used to that.

462
00:24:35.855 --> 00:24:38.677
And as you quite rightly said, inflation
is going to ignite.

463
00:24:38.957 --> 00:24:43.659
And when inflation ignites, the peasants,
they are revolting.

464
00:24:44.460 --> 00:24:49.843
Because the biggest enemy to anybody,
whether they're an investor or a shopper,

465
00:24:49.843 --> 00:24:51.843
is inflation, Scott.

466
00:24:51.843 --> 00:24:53.843
Oh, 100 percent.

467
00:24:53.843 --> 00:24:55.843
That is the biggest.

468
00:24:55.843 --> 00:24:58.127
Because remember, we went into this year,
not just as South Africans,

469
00:24:58.147 --> 00:25:03.370
but the world was looking at not a matter
of if.

470
00:25:03.770 --> 00:25:04.591
It was just hard.

471
00:25:05.471 --> 00:25:07.853
How many rate cuts will we be seeing this
year?

472
00:25:08.313 --> 00:25:13.577
And I know some people were forecasting
two, some were saying even three rate

473
00:25:13.577 --> 00:25:13.797
cuts.

474
00:25:13.897 --> 00:25:16.779
But rate cuts was the order of the day for
2026.

475
00:25:16.899 --> 00:25:21.622
Well, we went from 28 February, there was
a 60% probability,

476
00:25:22.563 --> 00:25:29.107
and that's according to the CME Fed tool,
60% probability that the Fed will cut

477
00:25:29.107 --> 00:25:31.107
rates at the

478
00:25:31.107 --> 00:25:33.107
April meeting.

479
00:25:33.107 --> 00:25:34.331
As we sit here, there's now no chance.

480
00:25:34.671 --> 00:25:38.795
zero chance for a rate cut in April,
there's actually just close to a 20%

481
00:25:39.195 --> 00:25:42.758
probability that they'll have a rate hike.

482
00:25:43.259 --> 00:25:45.480
So it just shows you how things have
changed.

483
00:25:45.921 --> 00:25:49.384
Yes, we've got the SARP meeting tomorrow,
the Reserve Bank meeting tomorrow.

484
00:25:49.784 --> 00:25:55.869
And as we sit here, the polls are telling
us that it should be a no change.

485
00:25:56.250 --> 00:25:57.871
And I do agree with that.

486
00:25:58.392 --> 00:26:02.335
I don't think they should be jumping the
gun because the Reserve Bank was...

487
00:26:02.615 --> 00:26:04.262
very slow lowering rates.

488
00:26:04.263 --> 00:26:05.125
And why am I saying that?

489
00:26:05.948 --> 00:26:07.514
When you look at the past 20 years,

490
00:26:08.583 --> 00:26:13.286
the difference between the RIPA rate and
the inflation rate was roughly 1.5%.

491
00:26:13.406 --> 00:26:18.050
So that's just subtracting the inflation
rate from the RIPA rate.

492
00:26:18.070 --> 00:26:23.274
So when that gap is high, meaning that
inflation is way lower,

493
00:26:23.435 --> 00:26:28.379
that gives the Reserve Bank a bit of
ammunition to lower rates,

494
00:26:28.619 --> 00:26:32.942
which it didn't really do as aggressively
as some of our international counterparts.

495
00:26:33.022 --> 00:26:35.544
As we sit here, that difference is more
than 3%.

496
00:26:35.685 --> 00:26:37.206
So hopefully...

497
00:26:37.566 --> 00:26:44.429
Hopefully, the Asia Reserve Bank will look
at this and say, well, as slow as we were

498
00:26:44.429 --> 00:26:46.429
in lowering rates,

499
00:26:46.429 --> 00:26:51.512
if we need to start hiking with higher
inflation, hopefully we'll just be as

500
00:26:51.512 --> 00:26:51.672
slow.

501
00:26:53.353 --> 00:26:54.993
Yeah, we'll wait for that decision.

502
00:26:55.133 --> 00:27:01.896
Over the next few weeks, the next two or
three months, it's going to be very

503
00:27:01.896 --> 00:27:03.896
difficult for the South African Reserve
Bank to juggle.

504
00:27:03.896 --> 00:27:05.077
And it has a juggling act every time it
meets.

505
00:27:05.157 --> 00:27:06.558
But this time it's very difficult.

506
00:27:06.658 --> 00:27:07.358
What do they say?

507
00:27:07.579 --> 00:27:09.920
This is just a moment in time.

508
00:27:09.980 --> 00:27:11.662
So inflation will come back down again.

509
00:27:11.663 --> 00:27:15.304
So we're not going to keep rates on hold
or even raise rates.

510
00:27:15.324 --> 00:27:17.326
We are going to continue with our cutting
policy.

511
00:27:18.167 --> 00:27:22.370
On the other hand, they'll say, well,
we've got to keep inflation under control

512
00:27:22.370 --> 00:27:24.370
because that's our mandate.

513
00:27:24.370 --> 00:27:26.370
So we'll see.

514
00:27:26.370 --> 00:27:29.115
Skulk, before we get to the ups and downs
on the JSC, please tell me about Remgrove.

515
00:27:29.335 --> 00:27:30.135
Numbers out today.

516
00:27:31.076 --> 00:27:32.697
I thought it looked really good.

517
00:27:32.837 --> 00:27:36.861
I mean This is a company, you know, that I
follow and really like.

518
00:27:36.901 --> 00:27:40.624
And for T's and C's purposes, I'm invested
in as well.

519
00:27:40.644 --> 00:27:46.469
And the main reason for buying this
company, well, the two main reasons.

520
00:27:46.589 --> 00:27:51.773
One, when you look at the portfolio of
stocks, it gives you a great South African

521
00:27:52.834 --> 00:27:53.775
Inc. representation.

522
00:27:54.176 --> 00:27:57.058
And we know it's been the place to be
invested.

523
00:27:57.779 --> 00:28:00.061
And then secondly, it's the fact that
it...

524
00:28:01.782 --> 00:28:02.482
trade it.

525
00:28:02.482 --> 00:28:09.024
I mean, if you look at the since 2009, the
average discount to its intrinsic value

526
00:28:09.024 --> 00:28:11.024
was roughly about 20, 21%.

527
00:28:11.024 --> 00:28:15.106
And for the past few years, we've seen
this company trade well above the 40%

528
00:28:15.107 --> 00:28:17.266
discount to its intrinsic value.

529
00:28:17.666 --> 00:28:23.768
Market telling the company, come on, you
need to now either start unlocking value

530
00:28:23.768 --> 00:28:25.768
or give us the shares back.

531
00:28:25.768 --> 00:28:27.768
And we know they've done that.

532
00:28:27.768 --> 00:28:29.010
They've done quite a few innovative things
over the past few years.

533
00:28:29.530 --> 00:28:33.811
Most recently, selling the F&B exposure.

534
00:28:34.912 --> 00:28:37.633
But the companies within Remgrove did
really well.

535
00:28:37.833 --> 00:28:40.654
Mediclinic, phenomenal, really good set of
results.

536
00:28:40.994 --> 00:28:46.657
Even Rainbow Chickens, which has always
been sort of a tongue-in-the-cheek type of

537
00:28:46.657 --> 00:28:48.657
company, that did well.

538
00:28:48.657 --> 00:28:53.660
And when you look at the company's
intrinsic value, now trading slightly

539
00:28:53.660 --> 00:28:55.660
below the 40% levels,

540
00:28:55.660 --> 00:28:57.862
but let's call it a 38-odd percent
discount, I still believe...

541
00:28:58.942 --> 00:29:01.725
And it's offering a lot of value.

542
00:29:01.765 --> 00:29:04.268
They're sitting with quite a bit of cash.

543
00:29:04.668 --> 00:29:07.591
That's, I think, a positive.

544
00:29:08.071 --> 00:29:12.516
And yeah, in general, it's just a really,
really good set of results.

545
00:29:12.976 --> 00:29:13.676
Very good.

546
00:29:13.676 --> 00:29:19.023
A nice, robust Remgrove assessment there
from a shareholder at Skunk Low.

547
00:29:19.103 --> 00:29:21.926
Let's have a look at some of the other
shares on the JSC today.

548
00:29:22.546 --> 00:29:27.989
Diskem up 6.75%, Karoo up 6.3%, Northern
Platinum 6.2% of the good.

549
00:29:28.029 --> 00:29:28.729
Here come the diggers.

550
00:29:29.129 --> 00:29:31.170
Northern's followed by Harmony up nearly
6%.

551
00:29:32.030 --> 00:29:36.152
And Anglo Gold is 5.2% higher on the
close.

552
00:29:36.432 --> 00:29:40.494
On the downside, there isn't a day where
Tungela is not either at the top or at the

553
00:29:40.494 --> 00:29:40.755
bottom.

554
00:29:40.755 --> 00:29:45.596
Tungela today down 7.2%. Another digger,
but of a specific commodity.

555
00:29:46.417 --> 00:29:48.878
Property company, Hammerson, down 4.1%.

556
00:29:48.879 --> 00:29:49.579
Boxer.

557
00:29:49.678 --> 00:29:56.143
down 3.75%, Exaro down 3.1%, Motus down
two and a third.

558
00:29:56.983 --> 00:29:58.764
Skulk, any outside of those?

559
00:29:59.745 --> 00:30:03.228
Yeah, Emerson and Motus ex-diff scenario,

560
00:30:04.989 --> 00:30:06.770
but nothing really standing out.

561
00:30:06.790 --> 00:30:10.653
I think in general it was just a solid
recovery day in the market.

562
00:30:10.873 --> 00:30:12.234
Let's hope it's not a dead cat bounce.

563
00:30:13.477 --> 00:30:14.298
How are the indices?

564
00:30:14.358 --> 00:30:20.342
I noticed that the ones that you have been
watching very keenly for a couple of years

565
00:30:20.342 --> 00:30:22.342
are doing very well today.

566
00:30:22.342 --> 00:30:24.342
Give us the details, please.

567
00:30:24.342 --> 00:30:26.342
Yeah, the resources did well.

568
00:30:26.342 --> 00:30:29.328
I mean, we could have started there at
4.8%, but as I mentioned, it was across

569
00:30:29.328 --> 00:30:31.328
the board.

570
00:30:31.328 --> 00:30:36.133
Today, we've seen industrials that
actually were up 2.3% as well,

571
00:30:36.613 --> 00:30:41.277
and financials up over 3%, asset property
up over 1%.

572
00:30:41.897 --> 00:30:45.280
So, yeah, in general, it was just across
the board a very, very solid day.

573
00:30:45.300 --> 00:30:49.603
But again, mostly driven by recovery and
some of these resource stocks.

574
00:30:50.484 --> 00:30:55.388
I'm just going to give you the S&P to just
to conjure with in the last few hours of

575
00:30:55.388 --> 00:30:55.609
trading.

576
00:30:55.609 --> 00:30:59.191
66.50 for the June futures, up 0.7%.

577
00:30:59.331 --> 00:31:06.117
I would say that they'll be flat or down
by the end of the day because people are

578
00:31:06.117 --> 00:31:08.117
not taking into account the fact that Iran
has had a look at this

579
00:31:08.117 --> 00:31:10.601
so-called 15-point plan from Trump, which
he probably wrote in crayon or something.

580
00:31:10.701 --> 00:31:11.401
And...

581
00:31:11.782 --> 00:31:15.104
They've just said, sorry, surely you jest,
Mr.

582
00:31:15.144 --> 00:31:15.844
President.

583
00:31:16.005 --> 00:31:17.986
And it's not going to be good.

584
00:31:18.087 --> 00:31:22.410
So that's just me and just following the
pattern of the last few weeks.

585
00:31:22.830 --> 00:31:27.234
Skullclaw is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak Division in Cape Town.

586
00:31:27.354 --> 00:31:28.775
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

587
00:31:29.296 --> 00:31:36.241
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

588
00:31:36.241 --> 00:31:38.241
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

589
00:31:38.241 --> 00:31:40.985
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation, employer or company.

590
00:31:41.085 --> 00:31:44.926
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

591
00:31:45.387 --> 00:31:52.369
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

592
00:31:52.369 --> 00:31:54.369
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

593
00:31:54.369 --> 00:31:58.531
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

594
00:31:58.531 --> 00:32:00.531
change, revision,

595
00:32:00.531 --> 00:32:00.672
and rethinking at any time.

596
00:32:00.992 --> 00:32:03.393
Please do not hold us to them in
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