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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always, on a Thursday, I speak to
Viv Govender from RAND Swiss and David

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Shapira from Sassford Securities,

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Johannesburg and Manhattan, respectively.

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Viv, I'll start with you because last week
I started and I said, Viv,

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you said that the war was going to get
worse and it had got worse.

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And today I'm saying Viv.

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Last week, you said the war was going to
get worse, and it's got worse again,

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because I'm getting the feeling now that
this is quite a serious one.

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And the reason I say that is because of a
sort of a strange rift between Israel and

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the United States.

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Israel attacked a large oil field co-owned
by Iran and Qatar last night.

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And President Trump at 3.30 this morning
said, no, I didn't know anything about

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that.

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And Israel said, yes, you did.

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Viv, this is strange, strange behavior,
isn't it?

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Yeah, look, I mean, here's the thing.

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The Americans really don't want to have
this go on to infrastructure destruction

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kind of thing, because

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I think Israel is vulnerable, but what's
really vulnerable is like the Saudis, the

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Qataris, et cetera, in the region.

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I mean, the things they could be going
after, for instance, is things like not

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just the oil facilities, which apparently
could take years to repair, quite frankly,

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on the Qatari side.

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But also they could go after things like
desalination plants.

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And this is a very dry part of the world.

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You know, you're talking, you know...

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Tens of billions of people could be
facing, you know, a shortage of water,

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which is, you know, life-threatening.

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So they really don't want to go into
infrastructure kind of like, you know, a

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blot because it could really be
disruptive.

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And it would also mean that even if the
war ended tomorrow, if you destroy like

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the facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar
and

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Iran's own facilities destroyed, that
supply is off the market, you know, for

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the foreseeable future, which would mean
oil prices above 200,

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even if the war were to end.

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So this is a very, I think, you know,
dangerous escalation.

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And here's the thing.

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I've kind of come to the conclusion
there's just two ways this thing ends.

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It's either boots on the ground by the
U.S.

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or the Iranians get a nuke.

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And that seems to be the only way out of
it at the moment.

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I think the Iranians at this moment are
probably working as fast as they can

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towards a nuclear weapon.

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It's quite possible they weren't doing
that previously.

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But I think right now it's quite possible
they are.

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And if they are, it could be something,
you know, which they will do like a...

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test like the North Koreans did, you know,
and after North Korea got a couple of

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tests, you remember,

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Donald Trump started being very friendly
towards the North Korean leader.

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Yeah, it's good to see you, Rocket Man.

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Do you remember that famous quote?

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Sorry, I shouldn't interrupt you.

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He said, we fell in love.

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He said, we fell in love.

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I mean, this is what we should have known
what we were dealing with then during his

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first term, but nobody, nobody seemed to
learn the lesson.

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Viv, carry on with your diatribe.

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It's very interesting.

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And then if he does go to the boots on the
ground thing, that becomes Iran or, sorry,

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Iraq or Afghanistan, you know,

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times three or four.

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It's a vastly larger country, worse
terrain in many ways than Iraq is, many

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more people than Iraq had.

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And probably, you know, unlike Iraq, where
effectively the regime was destroyed,

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it's very difficult to see how they would
destroy the remnants of the Iranian

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Revolutionary Guard here.

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I think that it would be, you know, a
very, very bad period for the U.S.

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if they were to go, you know, boots to the
ground.

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But I don't see how it ends any other way.

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The Americans can't just leave it alone
because the Iranians are going to go for a

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nuke.

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The Iranians can't not go towards a nuke
because at the moment, that's probably the

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only thing that can, you know, guarantee
that they won't get, you know,

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bombed at some point in the future.

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So, yeah, and that's pretty much how it
goes.

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And as for the future, it does seem like,
you know, because this is the way it's

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going to go.

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It doesn't end next week unless something
spectacular happens.

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Okay.

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Thanks for that very cheerful start to the
5 o'clock shadow.

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David, we are going from Viv the pessimist
to David the optimist.

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You've always been an optimist, but maybe
even you're starting to think, wait a

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second,

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this is not good what we've seen in the
last 36 hours.

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It's going nowhere.

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And when I say nowhere,

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it's not even making news headlines here
in the US.

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You know, I watch.

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I hop channel from ABC to CBS to Spectrum
One and so on,

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just trying to get some perspective of
what's happening.

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And most of the news is around kind of a
fire in the Bronx or some cat up a tree in

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Queens.

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But the only thing that they focus on is
that they will give you what the

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price of petrol is at the pump and how
that's gone up and that it's not as high

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as it was in 2022.

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No, they're not pro-Trump.

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You know, this is not pro-Trump stuff.

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This is almost an indifference.

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The odd thing, Lindsay, is even talking to
neighbours here.

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You know, people in the lift or people you
see in the lobby or whatever it is.

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I can't say I've got any big friends here
or very close friends here.

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But, you know, you chat up, you end up
conversating.

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Most of them don't care.

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I'm not worried about that.

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You know, what do you think about?

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No, I don't care about that.

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You know, I'm worried about what's showing
at the theatre or what this is.

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It's quite remarkable how indifferent I'm
finding people here.

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There are no protests.

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And it gives you an idea of the American
people,

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just how far removed they are from the
world.

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And so I'm a bit surprised by that.

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But coming back to Viv's views and the
war,

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Trump has to get this oil price down, or
let's put it this way.

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the price at the pump.

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If he doesn't get it down, he's toast.

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And it looks like he's starting to burn a
little bit.

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You know, it's happening now.

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I think he must be a very worried man and
really not quite sure how to get out and

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how to de-escalate, how to get out.

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They use the word, you know, looking for
an off-ramp.

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I can't stand that.

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But, I mean, you know, he's looking.

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There is a view that, you know, I mean,
he's got to bring this to an end here.

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It can't keep going on.

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So, but America is, you know, they are
feeling it.

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You heard from Powell last night.

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I mean, you know, he's confused.

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There's nothing going to happen.

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And, but if I go out now around the world,
you know, around the block for some

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Italian hot chocolate because it's
freezing,

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you don't see people really worried about
a war or anything.

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Very strange.

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Okay, so you're going for the hot
chocolate in Los Angeles.

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They're going for some chilled drink
because it was 97 degrees there.

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97 degrees.

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So it's really, really weird.

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Not only is America split along party
lines, it's also split along weather

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lines.

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It's quite amazing what's happening in
that country at the moment.

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You talked about seeing Powell, I think it
was, at the U.S.

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Federal Reserve.

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I watched the nut job Pete Hegseth giving
a Pentagon press press conference earlier

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on about a couple of

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hours ago I mean this man is really he's
very strange he started quoting the bible

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a lot now you know you

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know that things are going badly when you
have to keep on saying that you've got to

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pray for this and you've got to pray for
that and and in

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the name of Jesus Christ we're doing this
and that and I think this is a bit odd um

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Viv the you mentioned $200 oil you And
it's 111 at the moment.

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That's for Brent crude.

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So petrol prices, if that happened, would
be in South Africa.

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When we were off air, you were mentioning,
what was it, seven rand a litre?

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Is that the price?

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For diesel.

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So we've got seven rand a litre for diesel
and about five rand a litre for petrol at

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the current levels of the round.

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The round, by the way, hits 17 today.

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And so, yeah, that's it.

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What I also want you guys to understand,
and maybe why the Americans aren't feeling

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it as much, is because there is a big
discrepancy as to how much the oil price

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is changing

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across the world.

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So you get to look at, for instance, the
American price for oil versus the Brent

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crude price for oil, for instance.

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It's almost $15 a pot.

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You know what I mean?

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It's a big difference.

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And the further east you go, I mean, you
go to places like Bangladesh, you go look

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at India, you look at

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Japan, the effect is worse there.

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Because they are the ones that already are
actually directly impacted by the

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shortage.

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I mean, Bangladesh, for instance, which
has a big textile sector,

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is a bit of a go slow to save energy.

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India, they're talking about the lack of
liquid natural gas, you know, the

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cylinders.

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They basically are looking at, you know,
that is a very big part of that country's,

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you know, where they actually cook their
food, etc.

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It's a big deal.

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You know, we are seeing places like South
Korea as well being affected.

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And also, I mean, it's not just the energy
thing.

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I mean, we're talking about fertilizers
being affected.

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We are talking about helium, which is
important for the manufacturing of

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computer chips and other high-tech
equipment, et cetera, being affected.

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And the U.S., I mean, it's almost getting
like almost just a washback.

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And that's what's already causing oil
prices rising in the U.S.

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and already causing this difficulty.

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The devastation you'll see in Asia will be
much, much worse.

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than whatever you see in the West.

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And even today, I mean, after the attack
on the, the Tifatat attack, first on

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Israel, on Iran's gas,

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and then Iran on Qatar's gas, at one point
this morning, the price of liquid natural

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gas in, I think, Europe was almost 30%

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up.

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yeah you know it's not double digits
positive but it's uh it was almost 30

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percent up you know early in the morning
um this is 20 of the world

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supply and like i said the damage that
they've done to that facility could take

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years to repair it's a really uh bad
situation

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uh on the east yes it is and i'm just
looking at the commodity um commodity

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board on my uh phone actually dutch ttf
natural gas i didn't even know that they

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traded it it's

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uh up 12 and 3 quarters percent at the At
the moment, it wasn't.

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up 23% when I looked at it at lunchtime.

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Things coming off getting a little bit
better.

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Gold at one stage was down 8%.

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Now only down 5.2%.

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But that big...

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The one-year graph, David, I don't know if
you look at it, but it was completely

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destroyed this morning,

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the one-year uptrend.

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The big long-term trend is still there,
but the one-year, no, it's out the window.

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So gold's going to take a while to get
back to things.

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David, there's been quite a bit going on
since we last spoke.

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I think there's been a total of eight
central banks that have announced their

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decisions on domestic

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monetary policy.

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The US, of course, and the ECB all flat,
Bank of England, etc.

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But if the prices do persist, there's no
way that the next move is down.

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In fact, maybe towards the middle or the
end of the year.

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The next move might be up.

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I mean, look, the yields are rising across
the globe in international bond markets.

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It's such a dilemma.

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You don't want to put up prices at a time
where petrol prices are going up.

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You don't want to help this along.

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So we saw this, I think, going back in
1973, where they did exactly that,

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put up rates.

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00:11:42.855 --> 00:11:44.536
And I mean, all that did is create.

232
00:11:44.984 --> 00:11:48.247
an enormous recession.

233
00:11:48.807 --> 00:11:53.331
So I think it's a very delicate situation
on how to handle it.

234
00:11:53.992 --> 00:11:59.356
And that's the assumption that this is
going to last, which we're not going to

235
00:11:59.356 --> 00:12:01.356
get out of it quickly,

236
00:12:01.356 --> 00:12:01.998
but this could be a few months.

237
00:12:02.679 --> 00:12:08.344
And I don't know, I'm not a central
banker,

238
00:12:08.924 --> 00:12:13.308
but I think we'd be loathe to kind of
start doing things like that, if anything.

239
00:12:13.764 --> 00:12:18.505
You know, one would expect them to lower
rates here so that it becomes more

240
00:12:18.505 --> 00:12:20.505
affordable.

241
00:12:20.505 --> 00:12:26.748
So it's, you know, you could hear the
indecision in Powell if you listen to him.

242
00:12:26.808 --> 00:12:31.409
Yeah, he said he didn't know where he was
going.

243
00:12:31.729 --> 00:12:32.629
People like certainty.

244
00:12:32.669 --> 00:12:35.910
If he had said, well, we know what is
going to happen, that's one thing.

245
00:12:35.990 --> 00:12:37.271
But he said, no, we didn't know.

246
00:12:37.291 --> 00:12:38.051
Well, nobody knows.

247
00:12:38.052 --> 00:12:40.732
And if Powell doesn't know, then it's a
difficult one.

248
00:12:40.752 --> 00:12:41.452
What about the...

249
00:12:41.772 --> 00:12:48.359
uh ai stocks viv the i don't know if i've
joked before that maybe they're recession

250
00:12:48.359 --> 00:12:50.359
proof maybe they're war proof

251
00:12:50.359 --> 00:12:55.487
um they nothing's been drastically
affected okay we got the markets down what

252
00:12:55.487 --> 00:12:57.487
about 0.6

253
00:12:57.487 --> 00:13:01.853
percent at the moment something like that
but when you get um the the top man and

254
00:13:01.853 --> 00:13:03.853
video coming out with these

255
00:13:03.853 --> 00:13:07.450
incredible revenue projections and i Open
claw Chinese stock surging.

256
00:13:07.470 --> 00:13:11.373
I think I sent both of you that article,
Aviv.

257
00:13:13.874 --> 00:13:15.676
This just keeps on going, this juggernaut.

258
00:13:17.057 --> 00:13:17.757
Yes, it does.

259
00:13:17.757 --> 00:13:19.518
I mean, I saw a recent report that was
quite interesting.

260
00:13:20.039 --> 00:13:23.241
Basically, there's a thing called the
H100, which is the previous generation of

261
00:13:23.241 --> 00:13:23.542
chips.

262
00:13:23.741 --> 00:13:29.225
And right now they're selling for more in
terms of rental than they were when they

263
00:13:29.225 --> 00:13:31.225
first came out in some cases.

264
00:13:31.225 --> 00:13:33.225
They're really holding up in terms of the
value.

265
00:13:33.225 --> 00:13:35.225
It doesn't make sense because the...

266
00:13:35.225 --> 00:13:35.949
The speed of technological improvement
here is vast.

267
00:13:36.429 --> 00:13:41.651
So you're getting like, you know, five
times the capacity coming out for like 50%

268
00:13:41.651 --> 00:13:43.651
more cost.

269
00:13:43.651 --> 00:13:47.034
If that was the case, you know,
effectively the old chips would be

270
00:13:47.034 --> 00:13:49.034
dropping by one third,

271
00:13:49.034 --> 00:13:52.576
by one third the current value or the
previous value because of the fact that

272
00:13:52.576 --> 00:13:54.576
they're just basically being, you know,
there's something that's, you know,

273
00:13:54.576 --> 00:13:56.758
five times better for 1.5 times, there's
three times effectively the improvement.

274
00:13:57.238 --> 00:13:57.938
But it's not happening.

275
00:13:57.978 --> 00:14:02.680
The demand is so great that people are
actually spending whatever it takes to get

276
00:14:02.680 --> 00:14:04.680
these chips.

277
00:14:04.680 --> 00:14:07.031
And the bottleneck in that sector is, I
think, quite worrisome at the moment.

278
00:14:07.492 --> 00:14:12.656
The fact that Jensen Wong says he's going
to spend a trillion, the question is, is

279
00:14:12.656 --> 00:14:14.656
it actually going to be possible?

280
00:14:14.656 --> 00:14:16.656
Because there's a couple of things here.

281
00:14:16.656 --> 00:14:18.656
Firstly, will they be able to actually
make the stuff to sell?

282
00:14:18.656 --> 00:14:18.781
There's definitely the demand out there,
no doubt about that.

283
00:14:19.181 --> 00:14:21.403
But do they have the supply, number one?

284
00:14:21.783 --> 00:14:25.206
The next thing is, if they do get this
thing out there, how are they going to

285
00:14:25.206 --> 00:14:27.206
power all this stuff?

286
00:14:27.206 --> 00:14:31.251
I mean, you do a trillion dollars of AI
chips, that translates into so many

287
00:14:31.251 --> 00:14:33.251
gigawatts of energy that's required.

288
00:14:33.251 --> 00:14:35.251
You know what I mean?

289
00:14:35.251 --> 00:14:37.251
There's a very clear-cut thing.

290
00:14:37.251 --> 00:14:40.685
I think that's about 100 gigawatts of
energy that's probably going to be

291
00:14:40.685 --> 00:14:42.685
required for that.

292
00:14:42.685 --> 00:14:44.685
That's a lot of energy.

293
00:14:44.685 --> 00:14:48.869
And obviously in an environment like we're
talking about right now, with oil prices

294
00:14:48.869 --> 00:14:50.869
and natural gas prices going crazy as they
are,

295
00:14:50.869 --> 00:14:52.869
it's going to be quite difficult.

296
00:14:52.869 --> 00:14:55.133
That being said, we didn't really do too
much in Vidya, despite the significant

297
00:14:55.133 --> 00:14:55.414
downs.

298
00:14:55.414 --> 00:15:00.036
But we did see a couple of things happen
in terms of some other players out there,

299
00:15:00.036 --> 00:15:02.036
especially downstream.

300
00:15:02.036 --> 00:15:06.647
And I think the real bottleneck in this
whole system, even beyond energy, is you

301
00:15:06.647 --> 00:15:08.647
guys in the Netherlands with the ASML.

302
00:15:08.647 --> 00:15:11.410
Apparently, that's the real bottleneck in
this entire system.

303
00:15:11.450 --> 00:15:14.272
It's the fact that ASML just can't make
enough machines quickly enough.

304
00:15:14.773 --> 00:15:19.816
And even if they were to go all out and
basically boost their production to the

305
00:15:19.816 --> 00:15:21.816
max that they could,

306
00:15:21.816 --> 00:15:25.340
they could probably only increase by about
50-70% their total production in like five

307
00:15:25.340 --> 00:15:25.399
years' time.

308
00:15:25.399 --> 00:15:26.060
You know what I mean?

309
00:15:26.080 --> 00:15:28.282
That is over the next five years.

310
00:15:28.662 --> 00:15:29.543
That's not a great...

311
00:15:30.143 --> 00:15:35.167
you know, thing to have when the world,
like I said, is basically being

312
00:15:35.167 --> 00:15:37.167
bottlenecked by their progress.

313
00:15:37.167 --> 00:15:40.050
David, results coming out of the JSC
Securities Exchange.

314
00:15:40.070 --> 00:15:41.111
There's been quite a few.

315
00:15:41.371 --> 00:15:42.612
Today we've had Momentum.

316
00:15:42.672 --> 00:15:44.233
That's another insurance company.

317
00:15:45.174 --> 00:15:47.195
Have you looked at the results since we
last spoke?

318
00:15:47.515 --> 00:15:49.136
Have you seen any that you like?

319
00:15:49.156 --> 00:15:54.140
I mean, you're very much focused on the
United States of America, but you still

320
00:15:54.140 --> 00:15:56.140
look at the JSC, obviously.

321
00:15:56.140 --> 00:15:58.343
The JSC is, I think we're facing a lot of
issues here.

322
00:15:59.271 --> 00:16:04.172
And I'm not, you've seen the gold price
come down quite dramatically.

323
00:16:04.252 --> 00:16:10.994
I think the signal or the warning happened
when the war broke out and gold

324
00:16:11.334 --> 00:16:18.136
ran up to, what, 5,300 and then did an
about turn and settled around 5,000 and

325
00:16:18.136 --> 00:16:20.136
did nothing since.

326
00:16:20.136 --> 00:16:20.257
And that was a concern.

327
00:16:20.457 --> 00:16:24.418
And as oil kept going up, this didn't
prove to be a hedge against inflation.

328
00:16:24.738 --> 00:16:28.099
There were more worries about interest
rates going up and the cost of holding.

329
00:16:28.671 --> 00:16:29.692
your gold position.

330
00:16:30.312 --> 00:16:31.713
And we've seen that come down.

331
00:16:31.753 --> 00:16:37.536
But what happens is, but I think also from
a South African point of view, I mean,

332
00:16:37.576 --> 00:16:40.278
this means a massive increase in the
petrol price.

333
00:16:40.718 --> 00:16:42.919
And we're a nation that needs petrol.

334
00:16:43.079 --> 00:16:44.720
You know, we use petrol a lot.

335
00:16:46.201 --> 00:16:47.161
We travel a lot.

336
00:16:47.822 --> 00:16:50.163
It's especially from an individual point
of view.

337
00:16:50.563 --> 00:16:56.347
You know, you fill your car up at what, 20
20 rand a litre or something, which is

338
00:16:56.347 --> 00:16:58.347
going to go up.

339
00:16:58.347 --> 00:17:04.609
I worked it out as about 15 rand a litre
here, and these are the high oil prices

340
00:17:04.609 --> 00:17:06.609
that we're facing at the moment.

341
00:17:06.609 --> 00:17:08.490
So there is a premium that we are paying.

342
00:17:08.491 --> 00:17:09.411
I thought it would be more.

343
00:17:09.891 --> 00:17:14.412
But there's going to be a lot of pressure
on spending in South Africa.

344
00:17:14.632 --> 00:17:20.594
And, you know, if inflation goes up and
the Reserve Bank doesn't reduce rates,

345
00:17:20.595 --> 00:17:22.515
which it's not going to do in this
environment.

346
00:17:23.659 --> 00:17:28.883
If anything, they won't raise rates, but
they're certainly not going to reduce

347
00:17:28.883 --> 00:17:30.883
rates.

348
00:17:30.883 --> 00:17:36.370
So I think South African business already
feeling or South African consumers already

349
00:17:36.370 --> 00:17:38.370
feeling

350
00:17:38.370 --> 00:17:40.370
tight.

351
00:17:40.370 --> 00:17:41.174
It's going to have a big impact on
spending.

352
00:17:41.874 --> 00:17:47.519
So I'm just looking at there's an
interesting thing when you look at

353
00:17:47.519 --> 00:17:47.618
momentum.

354
00:17:47.618 --> 00:17:53.624
and I saw this in quite a few of the, most
of the, you know, insurance companies

355
00:17:53.624 --> 00:17:55.624
coming out.

356
00:17:55.624 --> 00:17:57.624
New business is falling.

357
00:17:57.624 --> 00:17:57.787
And new business is the pipeline into the
future.

358
00:17:59.408 --> 00:18:01.409
It's all very well you're doing good
business now.

359
00:18:01.829 --> 00:18:08.634
But if you're not increasing the rate of
new business, you're not expanding it,

360
00:18:08.634 --> 00:18:10.634
it's going to hurt down the line.

361
00:18:10.634 --> 00:18:12.634
It's a bit too early.

362
00:18:12.634 --> 00:18:14.878
Most of the companies are very efficient
and they got the boost from market

363
00:18:14.878 --> 00:18:16.878
performance.

364
00:18:16.878 --> 00:18:18.878
But that's what worries me.

365
00:18:18.878 --> 00:18:18.981
And Momentum is a good company.

366
00:18:19.142 --> 00:18:20.743
You know, it used to be an ugly sister.

367
00:18:20.783 --> 00:18:24.467
I think Jeanette Marie has turned it
around and doing very well there.

368
00:18:24.988 --> 00:18:31.214
And I think the loss of business or the
loss of, oh, sorry, the fall in new

369
00:18:31.214 --> 00:18:33.214
business is more, it's not structural.

370
00:18:33.214 --> 00:18:35.499
I think it's more to do with the
environment than them losing ground.

371
00:18:36.329 --> 00:18:41.873
So, you know, the share price has done
pretty well, as we've seen with most of

372
00:18:41.873 --> 00:18:43.873
the assurances.

373
00:18:43.873 --> 00:18:44.895
But I'm a bit concerned about SA Inc.

374
00:18:45.415 --> 00:18:46.976
and the outlook for the economy.

375
00:18:47.457 --> 00:18:51.840
Yeah, I'm also a bit concerned about SA
Inc., especially in my Crystal Challenge

376
00:18:51.840 --> 00:18:53.840
portfolio.

377
00:18:53.840 --> 00:18:54.121
We've got it wrong.

378
00:18:54.321 --> 00:18:56.623
No, I've got no chance now, David.

379
00:18:56.663 --> 00:18:59.685
I mean, since it started, SASL has
doubled.

380
00:18:59.965 --> 00:19:03.087
And you've got a fair sprinkling of people
with SASL in it.

381
00:19:03.288 --> 00:19:04.388
So I'm finished now.

382
00:19:04.648 --> 00:19:05.348
I'm going to be...

383
00:19:05.509 --> 00:19:12.153
I said to you I want to be either in the
top part or the very bottom part, and I'm

384
00:19:12.153 --> 00:19:14.153
really going for the very bottom part.

385
00:19:14.153 --> 00:19:15.595
Now, David, I know you've got to go, but
have a look at the indices, if you would.

386
00:19:15.795 --> 00:19:21.638
And when I finish with the markets, you
can give us the closing indices on the JSE

387
00:19:21.638 --> 00:19:23.638
because we've got the dollar round.

388
00:19:23.638 --> 00:19:25.638
Viv mentioned it got to 17.

389
00:19:25.638 --> 00:19:27.638
It's currently 16.86.

390
00:19:27.638 --> 00:19:29.638
British pound against the round is 22.56.

391
00:19:29.638 --> 00:19:32.884
And the euro round is 19.43 with the euro
dollar.

392
00:19:34.121 --> 00:19:39.304
Well above 1.15 again, so around 1.15 at
the moment.

393
00:19:39.584 --> 00:19:43.766
So the stronger dollar really whacking
commodity prices as evidenced by gold.

394
00:19:43.767 --> 00:19:44.567
It's off its lows.

395
00:19:45.367 --> 00:19:47.809
Gold was down nearly 8%.

396
00:19:48.249 --> 00:19:54.012
It's currently down around about 5% and
that is 5.25% actually, 46.15,

397
00:19:54.052 --> 00:19:56.994
4,615.

398
00:19:57.014 --> 00:20:02.537
And that is almost exactly $1,000 off its
high, the intraday high.

399
00:20:02.857 --> 00:20:05.898
was $5,625.

400
00:20:05.899 --> 00:20:09.060
So, in fact, we're $1,010 off the highs.

401
00:20:09.061 --> 00:20:10.080
And that wasn't that long ago.

402
00:20:10.120 --> 00:20:12.881
It's extraordinary stuff been going on in
precious metals.

403
00:20:13.562 --> 00:20:15.322
Platinum hasn't been spared, down 5.2%.

404
00:20:15.323 --> 00:20:21.125
1939 and palladium, oh my goodness me, 22%

405
00:20:21.145 --> 00:20:26.087
down at $1,462 per ounce.

406
00:20:26.127 --> 00:20:30.929
If we go now to the all-important energy
markets, not quite as glamorous as they

407
00:20:30.929 --> 00:20:31.249
were.

408
00:20:32.858 --> 00:20:39.441
West Texas crude $97.15, which is up only
0.9%, but they close at different times.

409
00:20:39.481 --> 00:20:46.465
So Brent crude up 4.4% at the moment,
$112.10 per barrel.

410
00:20:47.386 --> 00:20:48.226
What else have we got here?

411
00:20:48.326 --> 00:20:49.026
Copper.

412
00:20:49.026 --> 00:20:50.247
Yeah, that's really getting hit as well.

413
00:20:50.248 --> 00:20:51.428
It's down 2% at the moment.

414
00:20:51.429 --> 00:20:55.490
It's had a torrid few days, $5.44 per
pound.

415
00:20:56.010 --> 00:21:00.893
The South African 10-year bond, look at
this, 100 basis points.

416
00:21:01.333 --> 00:21:08.276
Worse off than it was a week ago, or
actually, let's call it two weeks ago,

417
00:21:08.276 --> 00:21:10.276
905, 9.05%

418
00:21:10.276 --> 00:21:12.276
yields rising.

419
00:21:12.276 --> 00:21:14.939
David says that this Reserve Bank won't
raise rates and they've got no

420
00:21:14.939 --> 00:21:16.939
justification to do so.

421
00:21:16.939 --> 00:21:18.441
But if it goes to 10%, yeah, maybe that's
telling us it will.

422
00:21:18.561 --> 00:21:20.622
US 10-year, 4.27%.

423
00:21:20.682 --> 00:21:25.484
That's been in a range of 4% more or less
to 4.3%, more or less.

424
00:21:25.504 --> 00:21:27.805
So it's right at the top of its range.

425
00:21:28.201 --> 00:21:31.403
And if the 430 goes, then all hell will
break loose.

426
00:21:31.523 --> 00:21:36.346
S&P 500 futures only down 0.4%, 66.50
we'll call it.

427
00:21:36.866 --> 00:21:38.047
And what else have we got here?

428
00:21:38.048 --> 00:21:44.250
Bitcoin has been to 74,000, now below 70,
69,373.

429
00:21:44.251 --> 00:21:48.613
If you look at the performers on the JSE
individual stocks-wise,

430
00:21:49.113 --> 00:21:52.795
it's being dominated by two resources
companies.

431
00:21:52.855 --> 00:21:55.457
Number one, Tungela, up just over 6%.

432
00:21:56.621 --> 00:22:03.147
And Sassalong up 5.6%, 214 rand a share.

433
00:22:03.167 --> 00:22:06.049
It was 50 rand a share at its lows.

434
00:22:06.050 --> 00:22:08.791
It was 100 when David started his crystal
challenge.

435
00:22:08.851 --> 00:22:10.413
So, yeah, that's extraordinary.

436
00:22:10.673 --> 00:22:14.276
Boxer of all stores up 3.1%.

437
00:22:14.277 --> 00:22:16.578
And Pepcor up 2.1%.

438
00:22:16.618 --> 00:22:17.318
That's a winner.

439
00:22:17.779 --> 00:22:20.541
Downside, Cibagno down 10.2%.

440
00:22:20.982 --> 00:22:22.763
Impala Platinum down 10%.

441
00:22:22.923 --> 00:22:24.665
Pan African Resources down 9%.

442
00:22:24.985 --> 00:22:31.530
Valterra down 9%, and Northern Platinum
down 8.5%.

443
00:22:31.531 --> 00:22:32.971
What about the indices, David?

444
00:22:34.392 --> 00:22:40.056
Well, in fact, we were worse during the
day, but they also ended it down, say,

445
00:22:40.056 --> 00:22:40.075
2.75%

446
00:22:40.075 --> 00:22:43.358
at 110.572.

447
00:22:43.958 --> 00:22:46.580
So it's better than its worst levels of
the day.

448
00:22:46.680 --> 00:22:53.045
But, you know, we're now in negative
territory for the year, and I think about

449
00:22:53.045 --> 00:22:55.045
12%, 13% of the high.

450
00:22:55.045 --> 00:22:55.854
which was at the end of February as the
war started.

451
00:22:56.674 --> 00:23:00.455
But losses were right across the board
with miners naturally under pressure.

452
00:23:00.855 --> 00:23:02.335
The resource index down 6%.

453
00:23:04.796 --> 00:23:05.496
What else?

454
00:23:05.496 --> 00:23:05.996
You know, base metals.

455
00:23:06.276 --> 00:23:11.778
In fact, it was mainly the precious
metals, those shares that took the market

456
00:23:11.778 --> 00:23:11.959
down.

457
00:23:11.959 --> 00:23:15.859
Subania, Impala, Harmony, Pan African,
Valtiero,

458
00:23:16.379 --> 00:23:19.000
all of those down quite significantly
today.

459
00:23:21.221 --> 00:23:23.141
Banks, the rest of the market.

460
00:23:23.281 --> 00:23:28.296
down but perhaps not at the same level but
still in a pretty weak across the board

461
00:23:29.023 --> 00:23:35.989
Probably just looking at my list of
shares, a couple of winners there, but

462
00:23:35.989 --> 00:23:37.989
losses maybe three to one today.

463
00:23:37.989 --> 00:23:38.090
So I must look at the volume.

464
00:23:38.110 --> 00:23:39.231
Volumes have been good, hey?

465
00:23:40.152 --> 00:23:42.574
I've been very interested in the volume
today.

466
00:23:42.614 --> 00:23:48.018
Again, we're up at, oh well, this must be,
what do you call it, balancing,

467
00:23:48.058 --> 00:23:50.380
because it's an 84 billion day today.

468
00:23:50.921 --> 00:23:52.282
Wow.

469
00:23:52.283 --> 00:23:52.983
I don't know what...

470
00:23:52.983 --> 00:23:55.925
I think it must be futures closeout day.

471
00:23:56.425 --> 00:23:58.347
March futures expire.

472
00:23:59.748 --> 00:24:06.374
makes sense 84 billion that just gives you
some kind of level of the speculation that

473
00:24:06.374 --> 00:24:08.374
we see in our markets

474
00:24:08.374 --> 00:24:13.880
and there must be a lot of people hurting
at this closeout sure I remember in the

475
00:24:13.880 --> 00:24:15.880
old days Viv there used to be futures

476
00:24:15.880 --> 00:24:20.747
closeout parties in Jamsburg everyone
would get together and lie to each other

477
00:24:20.747 --> 00:24:22.747
about how much business they'd done it was
all very good but

478
00:24:22.747 --> 00:24:25.431
anyway David's got to go so we're going to
close this now gentlemen thank you very

479
00:24:25.431 --> 00:24:27.431
much for your time as always

480
00:24:27.431 --> 00:24:27.852
Viv Govender is from Rands Swiss in
Johannesburg.

481
00:24:27.892 --> 00:24:30.872
David Shapiro from Assassin Securities
currently in Manhattan.

482
00:24:30.892 --> 00:24:32.253
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

483
00:24:32.633 --> 00:24:39.575
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

484
00:24:39.575 --> 00:24:41.575
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

485
00:24:41.575 --> 00:24:43.316
position or opinion of any other agency,
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486
00:24:43.656 --> 00:24:48.277
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

487
00:24:48.758 --> 00:24:53.699
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

488
00:24:53.699 --> 00:24:53.819
entity.

489
00:24:54.079 --> 00:24:55.722
other than the speaker or the author.

490
00:24:56.002 --> 00:25:01.911
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

491
00:25:01.911 --> 00:25:03.911
change, revision,

492
00:25:03.911 --> 00:25:04.055
and rethinking at any time.

493
00:25:04.355 --> 00:25:06.759
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
