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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Thursday, I speak to
David Shapiro from Sasson Securities,

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currently in Manhattan,

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and Viv Govender from Ransuisse, currently
in Durban.

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Viv, last week you spoke about the war and
you were very sombre and you were very

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sober

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and you were slightly more pessimistic
than I think either myself or David were

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at the time.

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time.

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Now, things may have changed because it
seems to me, and I'll start with you

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again, Viv, if I may,

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it seems to me that things are getting
worse and Mr.

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Trump's got a bit of a hole to dig himself
out of.

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Would you say that's right?

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Yes.

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And again, I've never been like somebody
that's very anti-Trump, you know, it's not

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like I try and call balls and strikes.

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And like, as you say, this is so stupid.

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He starts this war, right, at a time where
he did not full up the US oil reserves.

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The oil reserves were depleted under
Biden.

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Trump promised to fill them up.

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Trump chooses to go to war with Iran.

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Trump did not fill up the oil reserves in
the months leading up to the war.

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How stupid was that?

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I mean, that is like the most, that is
like one of the dumbest moves ever.

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You could explain to a five-year-old, you
know, what you would, what you would do in

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war and the five-year-old thing, let's
stock up on the stuff that's going to be

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cut off because of the war.

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I mean, it is such a stupid thing to have
done, number one.

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The next thing is that I think the
Iranians.

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As you go, you know, irrespective of the
morality or whatever, from a game

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strategic point of view, what they're
doing is the only logical thing they can

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do.

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They have to keep on fighting for as long
as possible, because should they stop,

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they are just going to be attacked next
year.

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You know what I mean?

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The way this is going at the moment, there
is no deal that they can make other than

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abdicating that's going to basically let
them, you know,

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not be attacked.

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And given what they've done in the past,
they can't abdicate because they will not

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survive for long in the country.

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after what they've done to that country.

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You know what I mean?

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There's enough, I think, ill will towards
them, real ill will towards them, the

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leadership of the Iranians,

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that they won't be a viable life in the
country if they basically give up

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leadership.

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So from their point of view, they are
going to probably fight a lot longer than

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you think.

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From Trump's point of view, he can't
really stop this thing until he gets some

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real concessions from the Iranians.

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And so I don't see how this ends, you
know, quickly unless there's some outside

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force acting here.

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Exactly.

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It's not going to end quickly.

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In fact, and if he does put troops into
the region, then I'm sorry, you've got

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another Afghanistan on your hands.

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David Forrest Gump once said that his
mother told him, stupid is as stupid does.

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Okay, now this applies to Mr.

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Trump.

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Viv, who's not an anti-Trumper, unless
it's a strike.

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But he really did do something stupid this
week when talking about the school.

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This is the latest in a string of gaffes
that he's made.

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He said, no, it was definitely the
Iranians from what he's seen and heard, he

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said.

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And he talked about the fact that America
sells Tomahawk missiles to other

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countries,

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almost implying that America had sold the
Tomahawk missile to Iran that hit the

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school.

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Now, the only countries that they've sold
it to is Australia, the Netherlands,

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France.

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and the united kingdom and those those
people are really not involved so the the

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way he keeps on putting his his

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foot in it and says in kentucky last night
the war's over we've won it and then at

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the end he says but we're still going to
continue

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anyway david you have to come in on this
one because you're at the heart of it

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reading all the american media that we
don't oddly

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enough the striking of the school hasn't
caused as much fuss as i thought it would

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um and i think that's

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That's why.

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simply because of what the Iranians are
doing, raining down on their allies, you

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know,

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being indiscriminate about their targets
and the kind of missiles that they're

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using as well.

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So that I thought it would make more of a
headline, you know, particularly in New

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York,

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which is hugely anti-Trump.

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But I must say something else that the
public support is starting to wane.

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And particularly when they talk about, you
know, ground troops.

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And this is grinding on.

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You know, this is not going to be over in
a week or two or where we now going into

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almost three weeks.

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You know, this could go on for a month or
even longer than that.

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And the longer it goes on, the more the
upper hand shifts towards Iran.

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As much as we don't want to say it, you
know, it really shifts towards their

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incredible resilience.

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the You know, the new...

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Khomeini came out now, I don't know,
within the last hour or so and gave a

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statement saying, listen, you know,

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we're going to keep the Straits of Hormuz
closed.

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And of course, that's why oil is shot up
like it has and equity prices and

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everything else has come down.

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You know, that's because they're not
giving in.

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And I don't think they are going to give
in.

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I think they're just going to keep
grinding away.

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And I think this is starting to...

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worry, you know, really get to people and
worry.

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Okay, so what do we do now?

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Who's going to win?

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Is this going to be a truce?

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Is this going to be a draw?

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Whatever it is.

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And if it comes out as a draw, you know,
with both kind of teams standing down,

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then Iran's going to claim victory.

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You know, they're going to say, listen,
you know, we stood up to these, to

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America.

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So Trump has got to do something big.

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He doesn't want to hit the energy sources.

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Meaning electricity.

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You know, I'm not talking about oil
reserves or anything like that,

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or oil tanks or anything like that.

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But really, he can put down their power
source,

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meaning electricity source on the grid and
everything.

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He doesn't want to do that because he
doesn't want to stop a new regime coming

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in.

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And he says it will set them back a
lifetime, almost take years and years to

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do that.

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But he's got to do something.

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You know what I mean?

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He's got to do something big now to show
that he's in charge and that he is really

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winning the war.

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And I'm not saying he is.

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I'm just saying he's got to do something.

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If he doesn't, I think it's going to play
against him as well.

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You're going to find more and more
opposition to where he is now and calling

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for

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Congress to intervene and so on.

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I think he's backpedaling.

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He's backpedaling.

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He's got another problem as well, and in
the form of Russia and China.

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And he said that he's had a call with,
what's his name, Putin.

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And Vitkov said, we trust what Putin says.

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He says, we believe him, we take him on
his word that he hasn't been feeding

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intelligence to Iran.

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Now, how anyone can say that about Putin,
doesn't matter what the subject matter is,

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how anyone can say that we believe what he
said is beyond me.

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But the thing is about Russia is that if
the Iranians can't export their oil to

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China, 98%

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of their oil goes to China, a little bit
to Syria, a little bit to Venezuela,

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funnily enough, but 98%.

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And Viv last week was talking about Karg
Island, which is the main refinery, which

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they haven't hit yet because that would be
disastrous.

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Then oil would be at 125 to 150. So Russia
is now probably saying,

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or China is probably saying to Russia,
look, We've got 88 days left of reserves.

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We might need to keep on topping it up.

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Can you sell it to us?

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I don't know how oil trading works.

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I don't think anyone apart from those
right at the top do.

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But Russia is a problem and China is a
problem.

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And Viv, you've been probably watching
that as well, given the fact that you

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brought up the Karg Island issue last
week.

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What do you make of it?

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It's playing into Russia's hands to a
certain extent.

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In other words, boosting their foreign
reserves.

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Yeah, look, I mean, there's something
called the shadow fleet.

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I don't know if you've heard of that
before.

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But Russia has a shadow fleet that
basically it uses to move oil around the

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world, right?

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And recently, the shadow fleet had been
under a huge amount of pressure.

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The U.S.

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has attacked a few.

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The Ukrainians have attacked a few.

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Now, I think with what Trump is doing, he
knows that he wants to have the Russian

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oil in the market because it kind of helps
him.

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So the Russians are effectively allowed to
move their oil quite a bit more easily

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than they did in the past, which is going
to really fill up their coffers.

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It's going to, you know, if you're
strangling somebody and you let them

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breathe as much as they want to.

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Suddenly, they basically have a lot more
time.

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A month of breathing allows them many
months of continued resistance after this.

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So the Russians right now are selling to
the Indians.

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They're selling to the Chinese.

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They're always moving more freely than it
was in the past.

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And they're going to be selling oil when
the oil price is $100.

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A discount even here is going to give them
$80, $70 a barrel, which is way higher

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than they were getting in the past.

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So it's going to be a huge windfall for
the Russians, number one.

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Number two.

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You know, if they do have a draw, like
David said,

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it makes total sense for the Russians and
the Chinese to rearm the Iranians.

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Once this stops, they will be pumping as
much as they can into Iran.

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Why?

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Because they know Iran acts as a
distraction to the U.S.

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Should something happen in Taiwan, should
something happen in Ukraine, the Americans

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can't just focus on that because now you
have this Iranian regime

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that's rearmed and dangerous again, if you
know what I mean.

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So it really...

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does not make sense from a geopolitical
point of view, this whole kind of thing

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that the Americans have done at the
moment.

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It really is a very silly thing to have
done.

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But the one thing I would mention about
Cog Island, yes, the Marines are

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important, but 20% of the world travels
through the Straits of Hormuz,

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20%.

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If you had to look at the last, I think,
six, you know,

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crisis energy crisis we've had in the past
ukraine the one with the uh the

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1970s and so on the current shutdown per
day on a daily basis is worse than the

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next

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five combined that's how bad it is it's
it's not just the biggest it's bigger than

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the next five combined

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so it is it is by far the worst energy
crisis we've ever seen in the world and if

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this lasts a month or two i mean we are
talking uh

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places like south africa places that are
importing oil Thank you.

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are going to be a real problem.

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I mean, we're talking rationing.

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What does rationing of oil look like in
South Africa?

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What does our economy do if this goes on
to June or July?

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We're not talking about years.

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We're talking three, four months from now.

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We are going to have a very different
South Africa at that point in time.

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It's very interesting.

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Sorry, David, go on.

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No, you go on.

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No, I was going to say, I've been trying
to do some work on what Viv is talking

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about,

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particularly from the South Africa.

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African economy.

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And we are incredibly vulnerable to this.

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You know, we import the finished product.

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You know, most of our refineries have been
mothballed.

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So we don't refine any.

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We don't refine crude.

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We bring in the product.

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And when you bring in the product, you
haven't got the storage facilities for

236
00:11:09.764 --> 00:11:09.964
that.

237
00:11:10.204 --> 00:11:13.127
And if nothing else is coming in, you
know, you cause clog ups.

238
00:11:13.167 --> 00:11:19.072
And if you can't store anymore or you
can't take anymore, you know,

239
00:11:19.073 --> 00:11:21.974
you're going to cause all kinds of issues
with the supply chains.

240
00:11:22.054 --> 00:11:28.398
But my big issue is that if we can't get
this finished product, and

241
00:11:29.258 --> 00:11:35.862
I lived through this in the 70s, where
there was fuel rationing and also speed

242
00:11:35.862 --> 00:11:37.862
limits imposed on the country,

243
00:11:37.862 --> 00:11:38.663
we couldn't go more than 50 k's an hour or
something.

244
00:11:39.304 --> 00:11:43.866
Even if you were traveling, I think if you
were traveling down to Durban, you

245
00:11:43.866 --> 00:11:45.866
couldn't do 120.

246
00:11:45.866 --> 00:11:50.370
I think you had to do 100 k's an hour,
slow speed to conserve fuel.

247
00:11:50.918 --> 00:11:54.481
So we have, and also you could only buy a
certain amount.

248
00:11:54.541 --> 00:11:59.566
So we've lived through something like this
before, which was the other previous

249
00:11:59.566 --> 00:12:01.566
crisis.

250
00:12:01.566 --> 00:12:05.471
But I think South Africa, from an
inflation point of view, there are many

251
00:12:05.471 --> 00:12:07.471
areas in which, you know,

252
00:12:07.471 --> 00:12:10.536
the knock-on effect of higher oil prices
for our economy are quite disastrous,

253
00:12:10.896 --> 00:12:12.938
including a possible shortage.

254
00:12:13.839 --> 00:12:14.879
Yes, that's very interesting.

255
00:12:14.960 --> 00:12:20.225
and someone said to me that they had South
Africa's head two months of stock

256
00:12:20.225 --> 00:12:22.225
available.

257
00:12:22.225 --> 00:12:24.490
And that was 10 days ago or something like
that.

258
00:12:24.491 --> 00:12:28.154
But anyway, the markets are not panicking,

259
00:12:28.855 --> 00:12:33.220
but there's something a little bit darker
about the way that they're trading at the

260
00:12:33.220 --> 00:12:33.561
moment.

261
00:12:33.561 --> 00:12:37.826
When the markets open at midnight, I've
just finished watching a Champions League

262
00:12:37.826 --> 00:12:37.985
football.

263
00:12:38.286 --> 00:12:39.867
David and Viv.

264
00:12:39.947 --> 00:12:41.187
So I'm awake.

265
00:12:41.307 --> 00:12:42.887
I can't sleep after watching that.

266
00:12:43.167 --> 00:12:46.268
So I put the markets on and immediately
oil spikes.

267
00:12:46.269 --> 00:12:49.129
And it's been going up gradually ever
since.

268
00:12:49.149 --> 00:12:54.151
And when Khamenei came on or his
spokesperson came on and said,

269
00:12:54.152 --> 00:12:58.352
we're going to keep the straight closed,
then it goes up a little bit more.

270
00:12:58.592 --> 00:13:05.114
And the way that the futures, the index
futures, started ticking down, it wasn't a

271
00:13:05.114 --> 00:13:07.114
big spike down.

272
00:13:07.114 --> 00:13:12.198
it was general selling and david just stay
with you on this one because you've looked

273
00:13:12.198 --> 00:13:14.198
at markets and the way they behave longer
than we have

274
00:13:14.198 --> 00:13:19.061
that's that's the way that a sort of a
bear market behaves not a big rush just a

275
00:13:19.061 --> 00:13:21.061
quick just a slow

276
00:13:21.061 --> 00:13:26.005
grind lower yeah it's a it's a drip and
there are no stories coming out at the

277
00:13:26.005 --> 00:13:28.005
moment all the

278
00:13:28.005 --> 00:13:30.005
corporate stories are just falling on

279
00:13:30.005 --> 00:13:34.710
kind of uh deaf ears nobody's watching
them the everybody's occupied with

280
00:13:35.310 --> 00:13:37.591
the oil price.

281
00:13:37.751 --> 00:13:39.491
Most of the discussion is around that.

282
00:13:41.372 --> 00:13:46.313
I just wanted to add one point to Viv,
which is quite interesting to you as well.

283
00:13:46.393 --> 00:13:47.093
Sorry, Lindsay.

284
00:13:47.313 --> 00:13:51.534
In the sense that, no, why I say that
about America's oil reserves,

285
00:13:53.755 --> 00:13:57.016
I don't think it's about America's oil
reserves because they're net exporters.

286
00:13:57.516 --> 00:13:58.836
I don't know the qualities.

287
00:13:58.876 --> 00:14:00.017
I don't know all of that.

288
00:14:00.777 --> 00:14:04.178
What Trump is worried about and that's
what it comes down to.

289
00:14:04.766 --> 00:14:10.448
I think what he says about allowing Russia
to supply oil, he wants the price down.

290
00:14:11.109 --> 00:14:12.449
It doesn't matter where it goes.

291
00:14:12.749 --> 00:14:18.331
You know, Russia can supply anybody, but
as long as the supplies are coming out,

292
00:14:18.331 --> 00:14:20.331
the price will go down.

293
00:14:20.331 --> 00:14:20.792
So I don't think America is going to be
short of oil.

294
00:14:21.713 --> 00:14:27.395
He wants that price down because he's
promised the public, you know, the oil

295
00:14:27.395 --> 00:14:29.395
price was

296
00:14:29.395 --> 00:14:31.137
$45, sorry, a barrel, whatever it was.

297
00:14:31.537 --> 00:14:34.358
And he promised that the pump, it will be
$2.

298
00:14:34.778 --> 00:14:35.478
below.

299
00:14:35.478 --> 00:14:35.938
You know, that's it.

300
00:14:36.019 --> 00:14:36.960
It's now 360.

301
00:14:37.961 --> 00:14:43.745
So, you know, and as I've said before on
the show, and, you know, to you, Lindsay,

302
00:14:43.745 --> 00:14:45.745
in America,

303
00:14:45.745 --> 00:14:46.727
everything at the moment in the US is
about affordability.

304
00:14:47.508 --> 00:14:48.508
Jobs are being lost.

305
00:14:48.909 --> 00:14:50.270
People are battling with their...

306
00:14:51.340 --> 00:14:57.624
With their budgets, the last thing they
want as we go into summer is to pay more

307
00:14:57.624 --> 00:14:59.624
for gas, you know,

308
00:14:59.624 --> 00:15:01.624
more for petrol.

309
00:15:01.624 --> 00:15:03.928
So I think he's, I don't think with him
it's a supply issue.

310
00:15:03.948 --> 00:15:05.169
I think it's a price issue.

311
00:15:05.409 --> 00:15:06.390
It very much is.

312
00:15:07.350 --> 00:15:10.352
He focused on the local economy last night
when he was in Kentucky.

313
00:15:10.372 --> 00:15:12.834
He looked wider than normal, by the way.

314
00:15:12.835 --> 00:15:13.535
I don't know if he's...

315
00:15:13.694 --> 00:15:14.475
He looks shiny.

316
00:15:14.695 --> 00:15:16.656
He's enormous and he was sweating.

317
00:15:17.168 --> 00:15:19.890
I mean, it's probably hot in Kentucky at
this time of year, I don't know.

318
00:15:19.891 --> 00:15:22.732
And the chap that he introduced with the
beard, did you see him, David?

319
00:15:22.772 --> 00:15:23.533
Did you watch him?

320
00:15:23.853 --> 00:15:26.314
Did you see how he was sweating under his
arms through his suit?

321
00:15:26.775 --> 00:15:27.675
I don't know what he was on.

322
00:15:27.715 --> 00:15:29.377
I thought he had some cream on his face.

323
00:15:29.378 --> 00:15:30.357
He was on something.

324
00:15:30.437 --> 00:15:31.137
I don't know.

325
00:15:31.137 --> 00:15:32.699
But anyway, what was I talking about?

326
00:15:32.700 --> 00:15:34.961
Oh, yeah, he said, chinks, cheese, milk.

327
00:15:34.962 --> 00:15:36.602
He says they're all down.

328
00:15:36.622 --> 00:15:37.662
And he didn't say by how much.

329
00:15:37.682 --> 00:15:40.504
He said a lot since he's been in.

330
00:15:40.544 --> 00:15:42.446
And The Economist on CNN.

331
00:15:42.506 --> 00:15:43.547
Sorry, David, I watch CNN.

332
00:15:43.607 --> 00:15:45.188
It's all I've got here at the moment.

333
00:15:45.788 --> 00:15:48.449
The woman on The Economist, she said,
what's he talking about?

334
00:15:48.489 --> 00:15:52.111
I mean, this one's up 16%, that one's up
12.5%, et cetera.

335
00:15:52.471 --> 00:15:57.633
He sounds like a broken record from his
pre-Elections era.

336
00:15:57.853 --> 00:16:04.156
And I don't know, people in Kentucky may
be believing it, but I think people are

337
00:16:04.156 --> 00:16:06.156
going to get fed up with him just like
they're going to get fed up with the war.

338
00:16:06.156 --> 00:16:10.518
The Standard Bank today, we had a couple
of good ones from the short-term insurers

339
00:16:10.518 --> 00:16:12.518
like Outsurance and Santam.

340
00:16:12.518 --> 00:16:14.060
Viv, anything that's caught your eye
outside of what we've been talking about?

341
00:16:15.312 --> 00:16:17.193
Yeah, I mean, Sunarm, I think, is
interesting here.

342
00:16:17.493 --> 00:16:19.354
You know, they say volumes are at records.

343
00:16:20.815 --> 00:16:27.178
I do think that, you know, obviously, you
know, if you have the asset management

344
00:16:27.178 --> 00:16:29.178
operations in Africa over the last year or
so,

345
00:16:29.178 --> 00:16:31.178
you are smiling at the moment.

346
00:16:31.178 --> 00:16:33.802
We've had a very good, you know, return
last year, the best we've had in several

347
00:16:33.802 --> 00:16:33.882
years.

348
00:16:33.902 --> 00:16:36.804
And obviously, if you are in that
business, you're looking quite good.

349
00:16:37.384 --> 00:16:41.186
With regards to, you know, Standard Bank's
results, I think they are, again, you

350
00:16:41.186 --> 00:16:41.646
know,

351
00:16:41.646 --> 00:16:44.708
in an overall environment.

352
00:16:45.088 --> 00:16:48.291
they are seeing gains in the digital
retail sector.

353
00:16:48.691 --> 00:16:54.717
The one thing I have to be concerned
about, especially with the banking sector,

354
00:16:54.717 --> 00:16:56.717
the shift to digital is happening,

355
00:16:56.717 --> 00:17:01.804
but it also means that they're much more
vulnerable now to these new banks out

356
00:17:01.804 --> 00:17:03.804
there because you don't have that mode of
your branch network to

357
00:17:03.804 --> 00:17:05.804
help you out.

358
00:17:05.804 --> 00:17:06.668
If customers are moving more digital, any
digital bank can be your competitor out

359
00:17:06.668 --> 00:17:07.088
there.

360
00:17:07.088 --> 00:17:10.012
That's going to be, I think, quite an
interesting overall environment in a

361
00:17:10.012 --> 00:17:10.312
decade or so.

362
00:17:10.592 --> 00:17:13.714
David, you're not a big fan of the banks,
are you?

363
00:17:13.834 --> 00:17:15.035
In South Africa, anyway.

364
00:17:15.556 --> 00:17:20.919
So I know you've had a look at this is
what I normally say to David.

365
00:17:20.939 --> 00:17:22.220
David, have you looked at these results?

366
00:17:22.481 --> 00:17:29.265
And he'll say, yes, I had a look at the
headline and I had a look at the summary,

367
00:17:29.265 --> 00:17:31.265
but I can't go through 105 pages of
standard banks in an afternoon.

368
00:17:31.265 --> 00:17:31.747
Is that exactly what you're going to say?

369
00:17:31.767 --> 00:17:32.508
You've got to believe it.

370
00:17:32.648 --> 00:17:33.608
You've got to believe it.

371
00:17:33.889 --> 00:17:39.733
But I think the one thing that captured my
attention I'm not big on Africa

372
00:17:39.733 --> 00:17:41.733
investment.

373
00:17:41.733 --> 00:17:47.357
I confine my investments, as we've spoken
so many times before here,

374
00:17:47.537 --> 00:17:50.559
to the world's biggest companies, where
the growth is coming and so on.

375
00:17:50.819 --> 00:17:51.699
I'm not going to repeat that.

376
00:17:51.739 --> 00:17:56.282
But I looked at Standard Bank and I think
if you want to invest in Africa,

377
00:17:57.282 --> 00:17:58.943
then go for our banks.

378
00:17:59.343 --> 00:18:03.946
Because I think something like 40% of

379
00:18:04.366 --> 00:18:07.848
Standard Bank's profits are now coming or
earnings are coming out of Africa.

380
00:18:08.344 --> 00:18:14.286
Or, you know, in the region, not
international, not outside, you know,

381
00:18:14.286 --> 00:18:16.286
outside the continent.

382
00:18:16.286 --> 00:18:20.428
So I'm saying if the only thing that
struck me is that, OK, it's a fairly

383
00:18:20.428 --> 00:18:22.428
respectable earnings,

384
00:18:22.428 --> 00:18:22.708
but they're making good money outside
Africa.

385
00:18:23.008 --> 00:18:25.069
That's whether you believe it's going to
continue.

386
00:18:25.449 --> 00:18:26.589
I think they're still growing.

387
00:18:26.629 --> 00:18:27.790
They're very small areas.

388
00:18:27.850 --> 00:18:34.832
But, you know, somebody wants to invest in
Africa, in inverted commas, rather than

389
00:18:34.832 --> 00:18:36.832
going for the shop riots or.

390
00:18:36.832 --> 00:18:39.713
or the retailers and that, I think the
banks are doing okay, and it's propping up

391
00:18:39.713 --> 00:18:41.713
their numbers.

392
00:18:41.713 --> 00:18:43.614
But on a broader scale, I agree 100% with
Viv.

393
00:18:44.235 --> 00:18:48.856
This is a very competitive area, where
you're handheld,

394
00:18:48.916 --> 00:18:53.277
instead of going and bowing in front of
the managers, we used to do in those old

395
00:18:53.277 --> 00:18:53.497
days,

396
00:18:53.537 --> 00:18:58.619
go into the marble halls of the big banks,
you just do it on your phone,

397
00:18:59.179 --> 00:19:02.280
and you've got no loyalty anymore, you
know, service.

398
00:19:02.760 --> 00:19:09.352
And The way that fintech is taking over,
there was a company called Home Choice,

399
00:19:09.352 --> 00:19:11.352
which is pay now, buy now,

400
00:19:11.352 --> 00:19:13.352
pay later.

401
00:19:13.352 --> 00:19:14.876
I mean, very good results showing that,
you know, how they use credit.

402
00:19:15.897 --> 00:19:19.940
You buy over three, I don't know, you know
what I mean, buy now, it used to be like

403
00:19:19.940 --> 00:19:21.940
lay buyers.

404
00:19:21.940 --> 00:19:26.324
You want a pair of shoes, you get them now
and you pay over three or four

405
00:19:26.324 --> 00:19:28.324
installments over a week.

406
00:19:28.324 --> 00:19:30.324
Seriously.

407
00:19:30.324 --> 00:19:32.324
So it's huge in the world.

408
00:19:32.324 --> 00:19:34.324
There was a, what's it, Viv Klarner?

409
00:19:34.324 --> 00:19:36.324
Yes, Klarna, exactly right.

410
00:19:36.324 --> 00:19:38.324
Klarna is massive.

411
00:19:38.324 --> 00:19:38.480
Every time you go and buy something
online, it gives you the choice of Klarna.

412
00:19:38.740 --> 00:19:42.906
They've completely monopolized that part
of the market.

413
00:19:43.747 --> 00:19:47.612
But this is undermining the traditional
banking offering.

414
00:19:48.118 --> 00:19:51.059
So, yeah, but our banks don't lend money.

415
00:19:51.219 --> 00:19:52.739
That's why they're making so much money.

416
00:19:53.179 --> 00:19:54.740
You know, they don't want to grow the
economy.

417
00:19:54.820 --> 00:19:57.481
They just want to make sure that they get
a good return on equity.

418
00:19:58.081 --> 00:20:02.262
So if you want to start a new business in
South Africa, you've got no chance of

419
00:20:02.262 --> 00:20:02.323
getting money.

420
00:20:03.182 --> 00:20:05.423
Come to America where you've got just
piles of it.

421
00:20:09.204 --> 00:20:09.904
This is good.

422
00:20:10.004 --> 00:20:11.365
You should be in advertising, David.

423
00:20:11.405 --> 00:20:12.145
Come to America.

424
00:20:12.225 --> 00:20:13.305
We've got piles of money.

425
00:20:13.825 --> 00:20:14.946
Nice.

426
00:20:14.947 --> 00:20:15.647
Let me give you some.

427
00:20:16.206 --> 00:20:17.387
Let me give you some prices here.

428
00:20:17.407 --> 00:20:20.648
The dollar-rand has spiked in the wrong
direction.

429
00:20:20.668 --> 00:20:21.728
The dollar has spiked, rather.

430
00:20:21.729 --> 00:20:24.830
1676, that's a percent move for the dollar
against the round.

431
00:20:24.831 --> 00:20:28.731
2236, that's three-quarters of a percent
gain for the pound.

432
00:20:29.212 --> 00:20:32.153
And the euro-rand is, what is the
euro-rand?

433
00:20:32.173 --> 00:20:32.873
There it is.

434
00:20:32.873 --> 00:20:35.714
1930, that's a 0.8% move.

435
00:20:35.754 --> 00:20:39.476
Euro-dollar is 11530.

436
00:20:39.477 --> 00:20:40.616
A bit of a rush to the dollar.

437
00:20:40.676 --> 00:20:44.138
Not a rush, but again, a steady buy that I
was talking about earlier on the gold

438
00:20:44.138 --> 00:20:44.419
price.

439
00:20:44.438 --> 00:20:47.059
has fallen $55 with that stronger dollar.

440
00:20:47.060 --> 00:20:50.920
$5,119 per ounce, down a percent.

441
00:20:51.540 --> 00:20:54.041
Platinum down 2.5% to 21.48.

442
00:20:54.081 --> 00:20:58.042
David's been calling the top in the
commodities for a couple of weeks now.

443
00:20:58.362 --> 00:21:04.864
Palladium, David, well done, down 13% to
$16.26 per ounce.

444
00:21:05.004 --> 00:21:11.005
Now let's have a look at the all-important
oil price, which has slowly made its way

445
00:21:11.005 --> 00:21:13.005
now above 101.

446
00:21:13.005 --> 00:21:14.046
Brent Crudewell, $101.17.

447
00:21:14.146 --> 00:21:16.247
exactly 10% on the day.

448
00:21:16.328 --> 00:21:22.352
10.9% is the gain for the West Texas,
which is $96.75.

449
00:21:22.353 --> 00:21:23.913
Natural gas prices up one and a half.

450
00:21:23.993 --> 00:21:28.756
Gasoline prices in the States wholesale
$2.94, up five and a quarter percent.

451
00:21:29.096 --> 00:21:30.637
Heating oil, terribly important.

452
00:21:30.657 --> 00:21:37.402
I didn't know that one and a half million
homes in the UK still use heating oil,

453
00:21:37.402 --> 00:21:39.402
mainly in rural areas, but nonetheless
they use it.

454
00:21:39.402 --> 00:21:41.402
It's an 8.1% gain.

455
00:21:41.402 --> 00:21:43.402
So that's an important thing.

456
00:21:43.402 --> 00:21:45.402
And everything's going up.

457
00:21:45.402 --> 00:21:47.402
Soybeans, wheat, coal.

458
00:21:47.402 --> 00:21:50.548
all up over two percent uh copper price
going the other way bad for south africa

459
00:21:50.548 --> 00:21:52.548
down 0.9 south african

460
00:21:52.548 --> 00:21:54.469
10-year bond was gosh look at it now 867.

461
00:21:54.529 --> 00:22:01.451
it's not as bad as it was a couple of days
ago 867 but still a 19 and a half basis

462
00:22:01.451 --> 00:22:03.451
points higher the yield going higher

463
00:22:03.451 --> 00:22:07.412
the bond price coming down the us 10 year
was 397 10 days ago where is it now um

464
00:22:07.572 --> 00:22:14.475
4.24 s p 500 futures are down what one
point 1.2%

465
00:22:14.476 --> 00:22:18.918
if my screen, that's me making it up like
Donald Trump, because I haven't got a

466
00:22:18.918 --> 00:22:20.918
screen in front of it.

467
00:22:20.918 --> 00:22:22.918
It's just gone off.

468
00:22:22.918 --> 00:22:24.962
But last time I saw 1.2% down and Bitcoin
just below 70,000.

469
00:22:25.022 --> 00:22:31.686
Viv, before David gives us the indices and
the movers on the JSC, can you give us any

470
00:22:31.686 --> 00:22:33.686
AI update?

471
00:22:33.686 --> 00:22:37.590
Last week, I sort of, I prompted you with
the with the deep seek story, which hasn't

472
00:22:37.590 --> 00:22:39.590
seemed to come to fruition.

473
00:22:39.590 --> 00:22:41.590
Anything new this week?

474
00:22:41.590 --> 00:22:42.733
David, sorry, Viv, I mean, sorry, David.

475
00:22:44.706 --> 00:22:50.989
Yeah, look, I mean, with the AI stuff at
the moment, I think we are waiting for the

476
00:22:50.989 --> 00:22:52.989
deep sink, the move to come out.

477
00:22:52.989 --> 00:22:54.992
I think that people are getting a bit more
pessimistic about it because of the delays

478
00:22:54.992 --> 00:22:56.992
that have been occurring.

479
00:22:56.992 --> 00:23:02.496
And they do wonder whether or not it's
going to be, you know, up to, you know,

480
00:23:02.496 --> 00:23:04.496
the same level in terms of what it was
related to the American models.

481
00:23:04.496 --> 00:23:05.457
Some now suspect that it's going to be a
greater, you know, fallback.

482
00:23:05.798 --> 00:23:10.260
There's also discussions about whether or
where exactly it was trained and what is

483
00:23:10.260 --> 00:23:10.301
it trained on.

484
00:23:10.680 --> 00:23:13.242
And people are saying it was trained on
NVIDIA chips, but outside of China.

485
00:23:13.262 --> 00:23:18.728
So basically, They had it done in some
Southeast Asian countries that they

486
00:23:18.728 --> 00:23:20.728
trained this thing up in, using still
NVIDIA chips.

487
00:23:20.728 --> 00:23:22.728
So that does mean that the

488
00:23:22.728 --> 00:23:27.092
Chinese chip ecosystem has not caught up
yet to what the Chinese government wants

489
00:23:27.092 --> 00:23:27.532
it

490
00:23:27.532 --> 00:23:27.793
to be at.

491
00:23:28.292 --> 00:23:34.395
So yeah, I think the delays that are
coming through, the fact that we have all

492
00:23:34.395 --> 00:23:36.395
the other rumors about the trading around

493
00:23:36.395 --> 00:23:40.517
NVIDIA chips, et cetera, these are not
good news stories for the Chinese AI

494
00:23:40.517 --> 00:23:40.697
story.

495
00:23:41.418 --> 00:23:42.118
Okay.

496
00:23:42.118 --> 00:23:43.219
So we'll wait for a deep seek.

497
00:23:43.359 --> 00:23:46.220
I've actually downloaded the app on all my
devices today.

498
00:23:46.380 --> 00:23:47.140
Sorry, David, go on.

499
00:23:47.600 --> 00:23:54.123
No, I'm just saying, if Tencent was up, I
thought that was on some kind of release

500
00:23:54.123 --> 00:23:56.123
of,

501
00:23:56.123 --> 00:23:57.244
what's it, OpenClaw or something like
that.

502
00:23:57.344 --> 00:23:59.045
I thought this was all related to that.

503
00:23:59.085 --> 00:24:04.387
But they shot up earlier on in the week,
which gave Process and Asper's a bit of a

504
00:24:04.387 --> 00:24:04.608
lift here.

505
00:24:04.667 --> 00:24:07.529
Was that not connected with some release?

506
00:24:08.789 --> 00:24:10.550
Yeah, they have a thing called Crayfish.

507
00:24:11.730 --> 00:24:14.731
So open claw, right?

508
00:24:14.751 --> 00:24:18.973
So they use claw because of claw for
anthropic, but it's not a T-A-L-W-E.

509
00:24:19.433 --> 00:24:23.255
And then they use molt because, you know,
they changed the name like a lobster

510
00:24:23.255 --> 00:24:23.275
molts.

511
00:24:23.755 --> 00:24:25.316
And therefore it's claw, open claw.

512
00:24:25.536 --> 00:24:27.317
So it's crayfish with crayfish have claws.

513
00:24:27.357 --> 00:24:28.057
You know what I mean?

514
00:24:28.057 --> 00:24:28.577
Yeah.

515
00:24:28.577 --> 00:24:34.540
And so the Chinese are getting, are really
switching on to this AI kind of thing.

516
00:24:35.040 --> 00:24:37.441
But it's very different from the other
labs.

517
00:24:37.821 --> 00:24:40.382
So these agents have to use...

518
00:24:40.623 --> 00:24:41.613
somebody else's LLM.

519
00:24:42.535 --> 00:24:49.458
um so you you so if you have uh you know
crayfish or you have open claw whatever it

520
00:24:49.458 --> 00:24:51.458
is you still have a a link into

521
00:24:51.458 --> 00:24:56.501
j deep seek or a chat gpt or clawed more
likely and the clawed guys by the way are

522
00:24:56.501 --> 00:24:56.721
still

523
00:24:56.721 --> 00:25:03.445
considered to be the the for whatever
reason these atropic guys seem to be able

524
00:25:03.445 --> 00:25:05.445
to punch way above their weight in terms
of you know uh i think they are

525
00:25:05.445 --> 00:25:09.703
doing stuff that other people think is
closer to agi than anything else and they

526
00:25:09.703 --> 00:25:11.703
don't have the funding the other guys do
have They have less funding than

527
00:25:11.703 --> 00:25:15.587
Gemini, they have less funding than
OpenAI, but they seem still to be the one

528
00:25:15.587 --> 00:25:17.587
that you'd work through.

529
00:25:17.587 --> 00:25:21.730
So where this works is you'd have this
crayfish model fit into Kimi, fit into

530
00:25:21.730 --> 00:25:23.730
Open, Kimi, fit into

531
00:25:23.730 --> 00:25:27.913
DeepSeq, fit into Claw, whatever it may
be, but you still have to have your local

532
00:25:27.913 --> 00:25:29.913
model or the LLM running it basically.

533
00:25:29.913 --> 00:25:30.755
And the fact of the matter is that right
now it does seem that the

534
00:25:31.455 --> 00:25:36.698
Clawed model from the Anthropic seems to
be light years ahead of what the Chinese

535
00:25:36.698 --> 00:25:38.698
have and the Chinese are not closing that
gap.

536
00:25:38.698 --> 00:25:40.698
In fact, that gap is probably increasing.

537
00:25:40.698 --> 00:25:42.698
Yeah.

538
00:25:42.698 --> 00:25:44.698
Interesting.

539
00:25:44.698 --> 00:25:46.698
OK.

540
00:25:46.698 --> 00:25:48.698
All right.

541
00:25:48.698 --> 00:25:50.698
We'll keep an eye on that one.

542
00:25:50.698 --> 00:25:52.698
David, you're going to get the indices
ready.

543
00:25:52.698 --> 00:25:54.698
I'm going to give you the movers and
shakers to the upside and the downside on

544
00:25:54.698 --> 00:25:56.698
the JSC.

545
00:25:56.698 --> 00:25:58.698
Sassl, look at this thing.

546
00:25:58.698 --> 00:26:00.698
It's 50 rand a share.

547
00:26:00.698 --> 00:26:02.698
It's 172 rand a share, up nearly 6% today
for obvious rand.

548
00:26:02.698 --> 00:26:04.698
Higher chemical prices, higher oil prices.

549
00:26:04.698 --> 00:26:06.698
Tungela up 4%.

550
00:26:06.698 --> 00:26:08.698
Goldfield's up 3.5%.

551
00:26:08.698 --> 00:26:10.698
British American Tobacco is weighing in
with a 3.4% gain.

552
00:26:10.698 --> 00:26:12.698
On the downside, we've got Optasia.

553
00:26:12.698 --> 00:26:14.698
New listing on the JSC, 5.4%.

554
00:26:14.698 --> 00:26:16.698
Sounds like a Disney film, I've always
said that.

555
00:26:16.698 --> 00:26:18.698
HCI down nearly 5%.

556
00:26:18.698 --> 00:26:19.484
AlphaMin down 4.5%.

557
00:26:19.564 --> 00:26:21.706
Sanlam down 3.7%.

558
00:26:21.806 --> 00:26:25.529
And GrowthPoint down 3.4%.

559
00:26:25.569 --> 00:26:30.953
David, I don't know how I'm doing in the
challenge.

560
00:26:31.013 --> 00:26:31.874
I'm going to look now.

561
00:26:32.435 --> 00:26:33.255
No, no, please don't.

562
00:26:33.496 --> 00:26:36.118
I either want to be in the bottom quartile
or the top quartile.

563
00:26:36.138 --> 00:26:37.219
I don't want to be in the middle.

564
00:26:37.951 --> 00:26:39.391
It changes all the time.

565
00:26:39.551 --> 00:26:41.512
It's quite remarkable how things change.

566
00:26:41.892 --> 00:26:47.994
But I think what I want to point out is
that our market's now beginning to reflect

567
00:26:47.994 --> 00:26:49.994
an oil price of 100.

568
00:26:49.994 --> 00:26:51.994
Yes.

569
00:26:51.994 --> 00:26:52.915
And the impact that it's going to have on
retailers and the banks and the property

570
00:26:52.915 --> 00:26:54.915
sector.

571
00:26:54.915 --> 00:26:56.915
Good point.

572
00:26:56.915 --> 00:26:58.677
And even though the oil share was only
down 0.38 of a percent,

573
00:26:59.497 --> 00:27:03.798
some of the gold shares held up and also
the rand provided some kind of a cushion.

574
00:27:04.398 --> 00:27:07.239
But I mean, overall, you're starting to
see weakness.

575
00:27:08.564 --> 00:27:10.265
emerge in those areas.

576
00:27:10.766 --> 00:27:11.947
And I think it's going to be tough.

577
00:27:12.187 --> 00:27:17.192
You know, it's going to be really tough
because we know when we never had

578
00:27:17.192 --> 00:27:19.192
electricity what it was like,

579
00:27:19.192 --> 00:27:23.377
and you're just going to get higher oil
prices, higher diesel prices, higher

580
00:27:23.377 --> 00:27:25.377
transport prices,

581
00:27:25.377 --> 00:27:29.563
all of these things, I think, working
their way into the price of food and

582
00:27:29.563 --> 00:27:31.563
everything that we use.

583
00:27:31.563 --> 00:27:36.648
So that whole business of me going for
South African stocks, beating up South

584
00:27:36.648 --> 00:27:38.648
African stocks, the bottom five performers
from last year,

585
00:27:38.648 --> 00:27:39.110
are they going to be the bottom five
performers of this year?

586
00:27:39.590 --> 00:27:40.331
Are they, David?

587
00:27:40.351 --> 00:27:41.331
I was with you.

588
00:27:42.632 --> 00:27:43.933
I called that with you as well.

589
00:27:43.973 --> 00:27:45.414
I'm in the same kind of area.

590
00:27:45.855 --> 00:27:52.800
But I think it's going to hurt the
consumer unless this war is over in a week

591
00:27:52.800 --> 00:27:54.800
or two and oil prices

592
00:27:54.800 --> 00:27:56.800
retreat.

593
00:27:56.800 --> 00:27:58.800
But we've just said it's not going to do
that.

594
00:27:58.800 --> 00:28:01.276
Viv has got me very hungry with all that
crayfish and lobster talk.

595
00:28:01.536 --> 00:28:03.877
So, David, can you just give me the
closing indices, please?

596
00:28:04.697 --> 00:28:05.397
Okay.

597
00:28:05.397 --> 00:28:09.198
So the oil share ended down 0.38% at
116948.

598
00:28:09.738 --> 00:28:13.699
Top 40 down 0.29%, 109287.

599
00:28:13.959 --> 00:28:20.681
Resources just managed three quarters of a
percent increase, but the rest of the

600
00:28:20.681 --> 00:28:22.681
market down quite significantly.

601
00:28:22.681 --> 00:28:26.823
Banks under a lot of pressure, as we
mentioned now, and also some of the listed

602
00:28:26.823 --> 00:28:28.823
property down almost.

603
00:28:28.823 --> 00:28:30.823
2% as well.

604
00:28:30.823 --> 00:28:34.466
And generally, industrials under pressure,
even though they were supported by a

605
00:28:34.466 --> 00:28:36.466
weaker end,

606
00:28:36.466 --> 00:28:40.949
which helped British American, ABM, the
processors, NASPERS, just on translation.

607
00:28:41.089 --> 00:28:44.190
And they're big in the index, so they do
carry weight.

608
00:28:44.250 --> 00:28:44.950
Okay.

609
00:28:44.950 --> 00:28:46.832
Gentlemen, thank you very much for your
insight, as always.

610
00:28:46.892 --> 00:28:50.473
David Shapiro is from SAS for
Insecurities, speaking to us from

611
00:28:50.473 --> 00:28:50.514
Manhattan.

612
00:28:50.593 --> 00:28:53.514
And Viv Govender is from Ransuisse,
speaking to us from Durban.

613
00:28:53.515 --> 00:28:54.735
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

614
00:28:55.123 --> 00:29:02.065
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615
00:29:02.065 --> 00:29:04.065
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616
00:29:04.065 --> 00:29:05.806
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617
00:29:06.126 --> 00:29:10.767
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618
00:29:11.227 --> 00:29:18.209
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619
00:29:18.209 --> 00:29:20.209
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620
00:29:20.209 --> 00:29:24.651
And since we are critically thinking human
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621
00:29:24.651 --> 00:29:26.651
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622
00:29:26.651 --> 00:29:28.651
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623
00:29:28.651 --> 00:29:29.239
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