WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JEC has closed its doors, well almost
closed its doors for another day, so it's

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time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as always on a Thursday I speak to Viv
Govender from the award-winning RAND Swiss

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in Johannesburg and to the

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award-winning David Shapiro from Sassfin
Securities who is in Manhattan.

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I've already spoken to David about the war
on Monday, Viv, so I want to start with

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you.

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You've probably got some very strong views
on it.

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How is it looking at the moment from your
perspective, from all perspectives as

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well, morally and markets-wise?

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There's no morality in the war.

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There are no, like, I mean, Iran is not a
good player.

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I mean, forget about what they do with
other countries, what they do to their own

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people.

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I mean, just a couple of weeks, a month
ago in Saudi, they killed, you know, some

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people say 40,000, some people say less,

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but it was thousands of people protesting
against it.

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And why were the people protesting?

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They were not protesting for some kind of
weird thing, protesting not to cover their

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hair if they're a woman.

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They're protesting not to have this strict
religious police team whatever they do.

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And if you listen to some of the stuff
that they do to women in prison, and I can

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be frank about it,

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barbaric beliefs, you know what I mean?

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About, you know, if a woman is convicted
of a crime that is a death sentence,

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they do things to make sure she doesn't go
to heaven, you know what I mean?

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And that is literally medieval, barbaric.

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That being said, in wars, you know, it
never goes according to plan.

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Trump has been quite lucky recently with
Venezuela with the previous 12-day war

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against Iran.

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I think he had a bit of hubris built up
and he thought he could do something like

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this again without too much of a pullback.

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I think Iran surprised him in terms of
just what it's done in response.

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I think it surprised a lot of people.

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I mean, it's attacked Azerbaijan, it's
attacked Cyprus, forgetting about the Gulf

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states.

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And the danger here is that the longer
this goes on, the more the world is in

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danger because

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of the Straits of Hormuz and the amount of
oil that goes through that.

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I mean, we talk about 20%, I think, of the
oil in the world, natural gas, travels

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through this region.

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And we've come to a point right now where
the storage facilities in the various Gulf

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states have been building up.

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If it carries on, I think, more than 18
days, these facilities or these storage

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facilities are maximized, are maxed out.

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That means even if they basically restart
production or transport, we're going to

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lose that production, you know what I
mean?

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Permanently.

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Or at least until they basically over time
can build it up again.

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Places like India, places like China, much
of Asia, really under pressure.

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And the Chinese, as we know, are crucial
to the world's manufacturing.

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So yeah, this is going to be really
impactful if it goes on more than at the

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end of this month, basically.

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And we'll probably see our prices in
excess of $100 a barrel.

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At which point in time, that's probably
close to 2%.

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drop in GDP growth because of that.

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If it stays there for a while though, I
think it's all to do with the time period

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that it stays there.

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It can spike to 100 and not have any
impact.

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But if it stays between 90 and 100, which
is what I've read, and if it's true, it's

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not very good for GDP.

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They didn't say two big points off GDP.

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They talked about 0.8%.

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But anyway, whatever it is, it's not going
to be good.

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Yeah, I think 0.8% at 80.

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Yeah, if it goes to 100, I think it's 2%.

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Yeah, if it stays at 100, 2%.

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David, there was a chap called Richard
Dalton who is a very crusty,

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quite rigid and strict looking ex-UK
ambassador to Iran.

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And he was interviewed on CNN this
morning.

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He said you can't trust anything that
America does or says anymore.

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The lies that come out of Donald Trump's
mouth are dangerous.

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So don't trust anything that comes out of
that country or that man.

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And he just essentially,

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he said that the statement Trump made that
if they hadn't taken this action, within

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two weeks,

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Iran would have had a nuclear bomb is
complete nonsense and is very dangerous

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talk.

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Now, David, do you think Israel or
America,

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I've given you the nasty side of America
as a preamble to this question.

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Do you think it was Israel or America that
started this?

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because that...

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intelligence they had to drop the first
bomb on the supreme leader almost lends

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itself to israel doesn't it

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i i think that um they had this very
narrow window which gave them this

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opportunity to

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take out uh the

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iranian leadership and who pressed the
button who said yes go ahead i'm not sure

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you know but

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it would never have been done without
whether it was prompted by israel or not

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Yes.

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It wouldn't have been done without
America.

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It could have been America.

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America, Trump is now coming and saying
that he probably, he pushed Israel. You

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know,

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he's saying it wasn't an Israeli
initiative.

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So we'll never, as no one will ever know
the truth.

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We won't ever get to the bottom of it.

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It's interesting in here, in the States, I
go through the news all the time.

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It kind of fades out.

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I think people are just moving ahead.

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As odd as it sounds, he comes out.

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He does have a, you know, every day they
interview the president.

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He gives an update.

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But I think if you look at markets today,
there's hardly any kind of...

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of response.

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Lindsay, we discussed this on Monday, and
I think the biggest subject here is

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affordability.

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And that's the midterms are going to be
fought around price increases,

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and right across the states.

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So I mean, if you go to most of the
Americans, I don't even think they're

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involved in what's happening.

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I walk through the streets here, and
There's no protest, there's no response,

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there's no reaction,

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there's no talk of what is happening.

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I think what is more important is what
they can afford.

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And I think Trump's underbelly, his soft
underbelly, is going to be, as

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Viv mentioned, is going to be the oil
price or gasoline prices.

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If they start to go up and start to be
felt by consumers again who are already

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tight.

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I think that's going to be his undoing in
this whole issue.

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He's got to bring this to an end as fast
as possible.

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If not bring to an end, ensure that the
safety of tankers going through the

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straits is assured.

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That's where it all kind of pivots.

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For the meantime, if I turn on the news
now,

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I'm going to hear about the weather three
times every second minute, about the

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weather, about other things.

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It's so odd that it's hardly headlines.

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Yeah, I noticed on CNN they broke from the
news about the war and went to the story

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of a

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woman who allegedly murdered her husband
in

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Utah and all the various text messages
between her and her boyfriend and how

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they're going to run off and

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have a lovely life together.

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They should have phoned me, I could have
told them.

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Maybe to rein back a bit.

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But you know what I mean?

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The point you make is quite valid now.

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It's not quite as edgy as it was, the war
coverage, that is.

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David, I'll stay with you.

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Viv, sorry, I'm going to stay with David
because we need to cover a couple of

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things on the JSC.

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There's been trading updates, I think,
from Sanlam and Stardio.

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David, you might have had a quick glance
at those.

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But it was Impala Platinum this morning.

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Was it as good as Valterra, do you think?

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I mean, the share price has been punished
today because of the metal price.

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not because of the results, I think, but
were the results as glamorous as

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Valterra's?

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Impala, that is.

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You know, I can't really give you an
answer because what's happened is the

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increase in the

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underlying metal has kind of obfuscated or
kind of masked, you know,

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any kind of issues with production and
efficiencies within the system.

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I'm not sure.

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I must admit I've...

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I've still got to go through them.

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Remember, we're seven hours behind.

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And so my day is only starting now.

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Or it's very early in the day.

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So I've still got the results to go
through.

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But, Lindsay, you know, the point I want
to make,

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and we were talking before we came on
about trading and trading on the markets.

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And I don't know whether I brought this up
on Monday,

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but what's concerning me is how in these
times of stress, Everyone's run for the

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dollar.

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And the dollar today against the rand is
16.50, it's against 1.16.

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Remember, we were 1.19 in the euro against
the euro, we won 33 against the pound, we

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were much higher than that.

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And what's intrigued me is how quickly
people have abandoned the so-called safe

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havens and have run to the dollar.

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And my view is that in real times of
stress,

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People do go back to the United States.

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They go back to the comfort of their
granny or their parents, whatever it is.

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So, you know, like...

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screaming children.

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They run for their money.

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And it's odd to see where the rand, you
know, where this is now.

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And why I say that is if you look at the,
you know, JSC stocks, I mean, there's a

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big,

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big sell-off in the miners.

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And that will include, I think, today.

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I haven't gone through it in great detail
at the moment.

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Let me see.

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You know, there has been quite a big
sell-off in all the resource stocks,

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gold shares and platinum shares and that.

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And that's odd.

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They had a horrible day on Tuesday as
well.

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Yeah, yeah.

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The JSU was down nearly 6%, an awful day.

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But anyway, David, the gas prices in the
United States,

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you were talking about that at the
beginning of the year when Trump was

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saying, you know,

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it's 180 a gallon in Iowa.

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That was in the wholesale price.

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It was never 180 a gallon in Iowa, by the
way.

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It's another one of his lies.

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Yeah.

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But in the wholesale market, the futures
market,

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$1.67 at the beginning of the year,
January the

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5th. And we're currently trading live at
$2.62.

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So work out the percentage.

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Maybe one of you two clever chaps could do
so.

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From $1.70 to $2.60, it's almost a dollar
a gallon higher.

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So it's about 50% higher, isn't it?

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Something like that.

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and that's the wholesale price, and
that'll be passed on once the stocks have

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been drawn down at petrol stations, etc.

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That'll be passed on to the consumer, and
that's not good for Trump.

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Do you think it's as simple as that, Viv?

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Do you think it's as simple as somebody
saying, well, I don't know who to vote

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for,

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but I don't want to vote for the person
that told me there'd be cheap gas prices?

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Yes, I mean, as I think it was,
Bucklington says the economy is cheaper,

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and nothing's going to affect the U.S.

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voter as much as the economy.

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And I think that's one of the reasons that
we actually have not seen the reaction,

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like David mentioned, in the U.S.

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market.

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I mean, basically, yes, we've had a bit of
a volatility, but not as much as you would

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think would be happening because of this
thing.

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And the reason is that they think that
Trump cannot afford to go into the

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midterms with, you know, much higher, you
know, inflation and so on.

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So he has to come to some conclusion to
this war earlier than that.

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And I think that's what we've seen from, I
mean, I saw some traders talking about it

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in the last couple of days, and they were
saying basically

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The pain for Trump is just too great for
the midterms.

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He has to end this quickly.

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And he also believes that the U.S.

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military has been incredibly successful
with their attacks, etc.

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And the belief is that the Iranians are
going to buckle.

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But, I mean, the problem is that why would
they?

235
00:12:06.457 --> 00:12:10.639
Yes, you can understand if their
leadership is under threat, they're going

236
00:12:10.639 --> 00:12:12.639
to die, they might want to buckle.

237
00:12:12.639 --> 00:12:13.680
But, you know, up to this point, that
hasn't saved them.

238
00:12:14.340 --> 00:12:18.222
In the 12-day war, they haven't gotten any
kind of benefit from, you know.

239
00:12:18.622 --> 00:12:20.103
not going all out in that particular time.

240
00:12:20.104 --> 00:12:25.668
In fact, you could argue that had they
been more aggressive in their responses

241
00:12:25.668 --> 00:12:27.668
back then, they'd be in a better position
right now.

242
00:12:27.668 --> 00:12:29.668
I think that is the danger.

243
00:12:29.668 --> 00:12:30.372
It's the fact that the whole, I think
Tucker Carlson was talking about this,

244
00:12:30.552 --> 00:12:34.155
the whole strategy in the US right now
relies on the restraint of Iran.

245
00:12:34.156 --> 00:12:35.016
You know what I mean?

246
00:12:36.017 --> 00:12:39.100
If they did not show restraint, this thing
could really turn badly.

247
00:12:39.180 --> 00:12:40.641
And right now they have not shown
restraint.

248
00:12:41.182 --> 00:12:42.423
Like I said, they've attacked Cyprus.

249
00:12:43.203 --> 00:12:46.146
There's discussions that they've attacked
Azerbaijan today.

250
00:12:47.142 --> 00:12:49.043
they've attacked the Gulf states, which
we're not expected to do.

251
00:12:49.903 --> 00:12:55.786
And if they start attacking, like, you
know, things like the desalination plants

252
00:12:55.786 --> 00:12:57.786
in the Gulf states, it could have a very,

253
00:12:57.786 --> 00:12:59.786
very big long-term effect on those places.

254
00:12:59.786 --> 00:12:59.807
Okay, let's get away from that now.

255
00:12:59.947 --> 00:13:06.650
And let's have our regular and rather
haphazard sometimes AI feature,

256
00:13:06.670 --> 00:13:11.752
which is brought to you by the obsessive
and brilliant brain of Viv Govender this

257
00:13:11.752 --> 00:13:12.012
week.

258
00:13:12.012 --> 00:13:13.773
And it's something I sent both of you.

259
00:13:14.193 --> 00:13:14.893
And it's the...

260
00:13:16.110 --> 00:13:17.190
It's DeepSeek, Viv.

261
00:13:18.511 --> 00:13:22.153
The launch, the rollout of V4 DeepSeek or
something like that.

262
00:13:22.453 --> 00:13:27.155
Was it as significant as this chat writing
on the social media network implied?

263
00:13:28.815 --> 00:13:29.515
Oh, it is.

264
00:13:29.716 --> 00:13:36.118
Look, I mean, like I mentioned in my AI
thing I talked to you guys about a while

265
00:13:36.118 --> 00:13:38.118
back, the Chinese are producing basically
a very,

266
00:13:38.118 --> 00:13:38.279
almost a dumping strategy around AI.

267
00:13:38.639 --> 00:13:40.660
They effectively are making AI and giving
it out for free.

268
00:13:41.861 --> 00:13:45.082
And that is an incredibly, you know,
strange strategy.

269
00:13:45.442 --> 00:13:47.323
if it wasn't backed by a government, you
know what I mean?

270
00:13:47.604 --> 00:13:54.488
So these companies are basically producing
AI for these models, probably costing not

271
00:13:54.488 --> 00:13:56.488
the billions that the US models are
costing,

272
00:13:56.488 --> 00:13:56.610
but probably tens if not hundreds of
millions.

273
00:13:57.070 --> 00:14:00.412
DeepSeek famously said it also costs 6
million, but people say it costs more than

274
00:14:00.412 --> 00:14:00.533
100 million.

275
00:14:00.733 --> 00:14:02.013
We take all the factors into play.

276
00:14:02.774 --> 00:14:03.635
And then they give it away.

277
00:14:04.135 --> 00:14:05.216
And that is the thing.

278
00:14:05.336 --> 00:14:10.299
If they can keep a model that's close to
what the US best models are like, and it's

279
00:14:10.299 --> 00:14:10.539
free,

280
00:14:10.719 --> 00:14:14.082
it totally undercuts the business plans of
places like OpenAI or...

281
00:14:14.506 --> 00:14:15.290
you know, anthropic, etc.

282
00:14:15.651 --> 00:14:17.801
Even a Gemini may be coming to play.

283
00:14:18.374 --> 00:14:25.136
And it would make all those billions and
tens of billions that have been spent in

284
00:14:25.136 --> 00:14:27.136
the U.S., you know, data center and
training and so on, almost like, you know,

285
00:14:27.136 --> 00:14:29.136
loss making.

286
00:14:29.136 --> 00:14:31.136
Because how do you compete with free?

287
00:14:31.136 --> 00:14:33.136
Especially free is almost as good as what
you're making.

288
00:14:33.136 --> 00:14:35.136
That's interesting.

289
00:14:35.136 --> 00:14:37.136
David's ears have pricked up, David.

290
00:14:37.136 --> 00:14:39.640
You're looking at your screen now and
being tempted to press the sell button on

291
00:14:39.640 --> 00:14:41.640
certain stocks,

292
00:14:41.640 --> 00:14:42.441
having heard what Viv said and having read
what I sent you.

293
00:14:43.941 --> 00:14:45.162
It hasn't responded.

294
00:14:45.262 --> 00:14:45.962
And that's...

295
00:14:46.250 --> 00:14:52.812
I read the article and I thought there
would be some kind of response, but we

296
00:14:52.812 --> 00:14:54.812
haven't got that response.

297
00:14:54.812 --> 00:14:55.513
I think markets are holding up pretty well
here.

298
00:14:58.233 --> 00:15:00.434
I'm trying to look now as we just opened.

299
00:15:00.734 --> 00:15:02.775
Oh no, we've been open for about a half an
hour.

300
00:15:03.235 --> 00:15:09.917
This is a little bit of a sell-off in tech
stocks, but Microsoft's up, Amazon's up,

301
00:15:09.917 --> 00:15:11.917
Broadcom, various,

302
00:15:11.917 --> 00:15:14.938
NVIDIA down slightly, but nothing of a
major sell-off.

303
00:15:15.674 --> 00:15:20.876
It's a little weaker today, but certainly
I thought there would be much more of a

304
00:15:20.876 --> 00:15:20.936
reaction.

305
00:15:21.276 --> 00:15:26.177
And it just shows you that no one's really
prepared to get out of the market at the

306
00:15:26.177 --> 00:15:26.418
moment,

307
00:15:26.418 --> 00:15:29.658
believing that this will come to a swift
conclusion.

308
00:15:30.378 --> 00:15:34.199
So, and I looked at Europe.

309
00:15:34.259 --> 00:15:36.160
Europe recovered very nicely yesterday,

310
00:15:37.180 --> 00:15:41.541
and still holding reasonably well today
without any major sell-offs.

311
00:15:42.481 --> 00:15:44.842
I think the sell-off that we have seen has
come through.

312
00:15:45.658 --> 00:15:47.139
as I say, emerging markets.

313
00:15:47.659 --> 00:15:51.220
That's where we've seen the weakness,
Lindsay, and particularly...

314
00:15:51.221 --> 00:15:52.660
That's the strong dollar, of course.

315
00:15:52.661 --> 00:15:53.600
That's the strong dollar.

316
00:15:53.780 --> 00:16:00.022
Yeah, I mean, the whole EM trade has been
based on a weaker dollar,

317
00:16:00.102 --> 00:16:02.283
the dollar going into a long-term
downtrend.

318
00:16:02.323 --> 00:16:05.344
And these little blips, it's a bit of safe
haven buying,

319
00:16:05.504 --> 00:16:10.525
being a bit of inflation linked or
potential inflation linked buying in the

320
00:16:10.525 --> 00:16:10.606
US dollar.

321
00:16:10.805 --> 00:16:13.346
But again, you know, it's a moment in
time.

322
00:16:13.406 --> 00:16:18.688
and I'm as surprised as you are, David,
about the resilience of the tech stocks.

323
00:16:18.689 --> 00:16:22.810
I mean, it's almost as though they're war
and recession-proof, these things.

324
00:16:22.850 --> 00:16:23.871
But we'll see.

325
00:16:24.071 --> 00:16:25.972
Viv is shaking his head there.

326
00:16:26.012 --> 00:16:29.814
I can't see him, but I know he is shaking
his head there.

327
00:16:29.954 --> 00:16:30.834
Let me give you some markets.

328
00:16:30.835 --> 00:16:36.497
You know, Lindsay, despite that, I would
have preferred a big sell-off and said,

329
00:16:36.497 --> 00:16:38.497
okay, let's come in again.

330
00:16:38.497 --> 00:16:38.738
At the moment, I'm hesitant.

331
00:16:39.642 --> 00:16:43.983
You know, and I'm a little reluctant to
expose myself.

332
00:16:46.084 --> 00:16:51.685
I don't know what the trading books look
like, whether traders are going in and out

333
00:16:51.685 --> 00:16:53.685
or what they're doing in this kind of
market.

334
00:16:53.685 --> 00:16:54.026
But I think we're all confused.

335
00:16:54.466 --> 00:16:59.087
And it all comes down to how long this
lasts and what happens from here.

336
00:16:59.468 --> 00:17:03.189
My worry is, that's why I don't want to
commit myself in any big way,

337
00:17:03.729 --> 00:17:08.170
is that if it keeps stretching itself and,
you know, viv...

338
00:17:09.130 --> 00:17:15.713
I think the tactics of the Iranians, and
as Viv has exposed, is to go and say, OK,

339
00:17:15.713 --> 00:17:17.713
you know, all the allies,

340
00:17:17.713 --> 00:17:21.735
all those vulnerable points that are not
protected by domes, you know,

341
00:17:21.815 --> 00:17:27.417
salination ponds, hotels, whatever it is,
facilities, so on,

342
00:17:27.497 --> 00:17:33.340
tankers that are harboured in harbour or
so on, all of those kind of things are a

343
00:17:33.340 --> 00:17:33.381
bit of a worry.

344
00:17:33.400 --> 00:17:34.240
That's their tactic.

345
00:17:34.700 --> 00:17:36.281
And that's causing disruption.

346
00:17:36.282 --> 00:17:38.642
You know, it's causing people to get very,
very nervous.

347
00:17:39.438 --> 00:17:44.202
And you can see how many flights in Dubai
have been cancelled, 23,000.

348
00:17:44.442 --> 00:17:45.983
It means people are stuck there.

349
00:17:46.183 --> 00:17:48.244
That's kind of a tactic as well.

350
00:17:48.505 --> 00:17:49.365
It's scary.

351
00:17:49.425 --> 00:17:55.229
And I think that's where the Azerbaijan
story this morning, okay, it became

352
00:17:55.229 --> 00:17:57.229
breaking news,

353
00:17:57.229 --> 00:17:57.731
headline news for a little while, but it's
significant.

354
00:17:57.771 --> 00:18:03.375
There was some damage to the terminal, but
obviously the Iranians, if they did it,

355
00:18:03.375 --> 00:18:05.375
they denied the responsibility.

356
00:18:05.375 --> 00:18:06.197
But if it was them, which it probably was,
who else could it be?

357
00:18:06.497 --> 00:18:11.004
been It's a tactic to say, well, if you
can't fly from

358
00:18:11.425 --> 00:18:17.589
Dubai and you can't fly from Doha, you're
going to hotfoot it maybe to Azerbaijan.

359
00:18:17.669 --> 00:18:19.730
So we'll stop you doing that by bombing
it.

360
00:18:19.731 --> 00:18:21.872
And maybe other airports will be targeted
as well.

361
00:18:22.172 --> 00:18:24.153
It is quite a difficult situation.

362
00:18:24.594 --> 00:18:25.434
Should it continue?

363
00:18:25.474 --> 00:18:26.174
Right.

364
00:18:26.174 --> 00:18:26.414
Markets now.

365
00:18:27.195 --> 00:18:27.895
Dollar round.

366
00:18:28.016 --> 00:18:30.438
16.54.

367
00:18:30.439 --> 00:18:32.279
And that's a 1% gain for the US dollar.

368
00:18:32.479 --> 00:18:36.562
A British pound against the round is
22.07.

369
00:18:37.466 --> 00:18:40.309
1% as well there for the pound up against
the rand.

370
00:18:40.310 --> 00:18:43.351
The euro up against the rand by not much,
actually.

371
00:18:43.551 --> 00:18:44.692
Actually, 0.8%.

372
00:18:44.732 --> 00:18:45.432
It's not bad.

373
00:18:45.432 --> 00:18:47.635
19.19.

374
00:18:47.636 --> 00:18:50.337
Euro dollar is, where is that?

375
00:18:51.398 --> 00:18:52.299
One's just above one.

376
00:18:52.439 --> 00:18:54.240
It's about 1.16 on the nose, actually.

377
00:18:55.041 --> 00:18:57.603
Gold price, 5,099.

378
00:18:57.604 --> 00:18:58.484
A relatively quiet day.

379
00:18:58.485 --> 00:19:02.367
If it had been down $36 a couple of years
ago, there would have been headlines.

380
00:19:02.407 --> 00:19:04.489
But $36 down on a day?

381
00:19:04.809 --> 00:19:05.590
Nothing at all.

382
00:19:05.950 --> 00:19:09.573
Very quiet platinum down 10 or about half
a percent.

383
00:19:09.973 --> 00:19:16.117
And palladium down 11 and a third percent
to $16.58 per ounce.

384
00:19:16.178 --> 00:19:21.762
Now then, the all-important oil price took
a breather yesterday, but now it's got its

385
00:19:21.762 --> 00:19:23.762
breath back.

386
00:19:23.762 --> 00:19:29.227
It's taking a run to the upside because
Brent crude oil is just below $84 a

387
00:19:29.227 --> 00:19:31.227
barrel, up over 3%.

388
00:19:31.227 --> 00:19:32.910
And West Texas crude is up 4 and a third
percent.

389
00:19:33.550 --> 00:19:35.971
And the price there, $77.90.

390
00:19:37.311 --> 00:19:38.011
Yeah, Mr.

391
00:19:38.011 --> 00:19:38.892
Trump won't like that one.

392
00:19:38.893 --> 00:19:40.872
The copper price, $5.76.

393
00:19:40.873 --> 00:19:43.453
It's taking a real tumble in the last two
days.

394
00:19:43.493 --> 00:19:47.834
It was $6.10 and now $5.75.

395
00:19:47.835 --> 00:19:53.676
Okay, the Bitcoin price has been very
active and still above $72,000.

396
00:19:53.677 --> 00:19:55.897
$72,100 and a bit.

397
00:19:56.277 --> 00:19:59.598
It's down 1.75%, but it's had a terrific
week.

398
00:19:59.962 --> 00:20:06.024
The US 10-year bond yield having been down
below 4% is now 4.132% to be precise.

399
00:20:06.204 --> 00:20:13.066
S&P 500 futures with the real market half
an hour in 68.72 which

400
00:20:13.146 --> 00:20:18.967
is unchanged on the day and what else have
we got here the last one is the South

401
00:20:18.967 --> 00:20:20.967
African 10-year

402
00:20:20.967 --> 00:20:21.968
8.24%

403
00:20:21.988 --> 00:20:28.970
so quite a bit of selling obviously linked
to the weakness in the South African round

404
00:20:28.970 --> 00:20:30.970
which is because of the strength of

405
00:20:30.970 --> 00:20:32.970
the US dollar.

406
00:20:32.970 --> 00:20:34.970
David, any movers?

407
00:20:34.970 --> 00:20:36.970
Have you had a chance to have a look at
any movers on the JSC today?

408
00:20:36.970 --> 00:20:38.970
I'll get mine in a second.

409
00:20:38.970 --> 00:20:40.970
Stadia's numbers are good.

410
00:20:40.970 --> 00:20:43.976
And it just shows you that people have
still been prepared to go and pay for

411
00:20:43.976 --> 00:20:45.976
education.

412
00:20:45.976 --> 00:20:46.696
They're up about 8%, which is a good move.

413
00:20:47.036 --> 00:20:50.617
The one that's been creeping up is Mondi,
and I've been watching it.

414
00:20:51.978 --> 00:20:53.578
It's also a feature today.

415
00:20:53.958 --> 00:20:59.040
But Lindsay, when I look at Mondi and I
say, okay, and I go back on a five-year

416
00:20:59.040 --> 00:21:01.040
chart,

417
00:21:01.040 --> 00:21:05.382
today's gains or the gains that we see
don't even register a blip on their

418
00:21:05.382 --> 00:21:05.441
recovery.

419
00:21:05.442 --> 00:21:09.083
This is a company that's been absolutely
annihilated over the last few years.

420
00:21:10.263 --> 00:21:15.968
And then Woolies, some of the retailers
are staging some kind of comeback today.

421
00:21:17.389 --> 00:21:21.993
Woolies, what's it, City Lodge, Spur, and
so on.

422
00:21:22.694 --> 00:21:24.495
Just looking at some of the other stocks.

423
00:21:24.555 --> 00:21:29.199
But on the downside, it's the miners
taking a bit of a knock.

424
00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:35.705
I've got Tungela up 8.3%. Sassel, 4.5%
higher.

425
00:21:35.985 --> 00:21:38.347
Mondi, as you said, 3.5% to the good.

426
00:21:38.667 --> 00:21:41.848
and Woolies up 3.4%.

427
00:21:41.849 --> 00:21:48.271
Downside, Impala Platinum, 6.3%, Wicca,
Sunland 5.6%, Valterra 5.3%, Northam

428
00:21:48.911 --> 00:21:53.993
3.2%, and Nedcore down 3.5%.

429
00:21:53.994 --> 00:21:55.754
Before you'll get...

430
00:21:55.755 --> 00:22:02.617
Just, if you can, while I speak to Viv,
David, just get a couple of the indices

431
00:22:02.617 --> 00:22:04.617
closing.

432
00:22:04.617 --> 00:22:08.139
And Viv, I noticed when I asked you about
the war, You were less...

433
00:22:08.479 --> 00:22:15.021
optimistic than most people I've spoken to
about the idea that it might be over with

434
00:22:15.021 --> 00:22:17.021
quickly and

435
00:22:17.021 --> 00:22:17.762
with no real consequences.

436
00:22:17.782 --> 00:22:19.242
And I say that rather glibly.

437
00:22:20.422 --> 00:22:21.363
So forgive me for that.

438
00:22:21.383 --> 00:22:22.223
But you know what I mean.

439
00:22:23.663 --> 00:22:25.284
Do I sense the mood correctly?

440
00:22:26.904 --> 00:22:27.604
Yes, you do.

441
00:22:27.784 --> 00:22:32.205
Look, I think the reason is that from the
Iranian point of view, what's the upside

442
00:22:32.205 --> 00:22:34.205
of stopping?

443
00:22:34.205 --> 00:22:37.187
Because if we do stop right now, it'll
just be another attack in a couple of

444
00:22:37.187 --> 00:22:39.187
months' time or a year's time or
something.

445
00:22:39.187 --> 00:22:41.738
And you know that is the the issue here
but the one thing i want to mention before

446
00:22:41.738 --> 00:22:41.818
we

447
00:22:41.818 --> 00:22:44.781
finish off here i don't know if you talked
about kaga island yet kaga island

448
00:22:44.801 --> 00:22:51.687
is a very important hub for the iranians
thus far it's been not been like you know

449
00:22:51.687 --> 00:22:53.687
targeted uh it's like i think 90

450
00:22:53.687 --> 00:22:55.210
percent of their oil economy goes through
that thing uh and

451
00:22:55.470 --> 00:23:02.176
if it is targeted i think that would mark
a new state for the war i think the us is

452
00:23:02.176 --> 00:23:04.176
holding back from doing anything there
because they think it

453
00:23:04.176 --> 00:23:05.759
that that might be the one thing that the
Iranians think is still, you know, um,

454
00:23:06.223 --> 00:23:11.504
what China's saying if you know in a deal
because nothing does go then the Iranian

455
00:23:11.504 --> 00:23:13.504
economy is pretty much done

456
00:23:13.504 --> 00:23:18.947
I don't think they can rebuild it
themselves they it would basically destroy

457
00:23:18.947 --> 00:23:20.947
their own economy and it would be almost
like you know a game over for them as a

458
00:23:20.947 --> 00:23:25.708
functioning economy so I think that is the
one thing that the US still has as a trump

459
00:23:25.708 --> 00:23:27.708
card for them to get the pun but I think
other than

460
00:23:27.708 --> 00:23:29.609
that I mean they killed the the leader
they killed I think like a couple people

461
00:23:29.609 --> 00:23:29.889
down

462
00:23:29.889 --> 00:23:35.715
the line if you're like you know making
decisions in Iran at the moment Basically,

463
00:23:36.155 --> 00:23:38.877
if you do make a deal, what's your
likelihood of surviving the next year?

464
00:23:38.897 --> 00:23:39.597
You know what I mean?

465
00:23:43.459 --> 00:23:44.380
Thanks for that.

466
00:23:44.860 --> 00:23:47.061
David, wrap it up, please, with a few of
the indices.

467
00:23:47.081 --> 00:23:52.544
You mentioned resources earlier on, having
dragged down the JSC. Is that the main

468
00:23:52.544 --> 00:23:52.744
mover?

469
00:23:54.926 --> 00:24:01.549
Resource index down about just over 2%,
2.2%, with most of the damage.

470
00:24:02.510 --> 00:24:04.551
In fact, it's quite widespread across all.

471
00:24:05.263 --> 00:24:10.825
You know, the diversified miners as well
as gold and platinum shares and that the

472
00:24:10.825 --> 00:24:12.825
overall index

473
00:24:12.825 --> 00:24:16.728
was down 0.78 percent, still just on
120,000, still in record territory.

474
00:24:17.849 --> 00:24:23.051
But also we saw a general sell off in
consumers and financials as well.

475
00:24:23.471 --> 00:24:24.591
No outstanding features.

476
00:24:24.631 --> 00:24:28.933
I think you've covered, you know, those
that that have led the market up.

477
00:24:29.374 --> 00:24:31.254
But overall, a weekday, big volumes.

478
00:24:31.374 --> 00:24:32.635
The one thing we are seeing.

479
00:24:33.335 --> 00:24:34.916
is that volumes remain pretty high.

480
00:24:34.917 --> 00:24:37.637
You saw it in the JSE's numbers results.

481
00:24:38.097 --> 00:24:41.079
So a value trader today, I think over $30
billion.

482
00:24:41.499 --> 00:24:48.182
But once again, it's in the gold shares,
Angler Gold, Goldfields, Impala, Valtira,

483
00:24:48.182 --> 00:24:50.182
platinum shares as well.

484
00:24:50.182 --> 00:24:51.143
First-ranked in the high, also quite a bit
of trade there.

485
00:24:51.163 --> 00:24:52.403
Their results came out today.

486
00:24:52.704 --> 00:24:55.445
And always NASPERS because it buys back at
shares.

487
00:24:55.765 --> 00:24:57.746
So always amongst that as well.

488
00:24:58.266 --> 00:24:59.807
Thank you very much, David Shapiro.

489
00:25:00.747 --> 00:25:01.928
from SAS for insecurities.

490
00:25:02.008 --> 00:25:04.390
He's been speaking to us from Manhattan.

491
00:25:04.710 --> 00:25:07.072
Viv Govendor is from around Swiss in
Johannesburg.

492
00:25:07.192 --> 00:25:10.195
And unfortunately, David, I haven't got
time to talk about Arsenal.

493
00:25:10.255 --> 00:25:12.356
And thank goodness for that.

494
00:25:12.456 --> 00:25:13.758
That was the five o'clock shadow.

495
00:25:15.099 --> 00:25:22.044
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

496
00:25:22.044 --> 00:25:24.044
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

497
00:25:24.044 --> 00:25:25.787
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

498
00:25:26.127 --> 00:25:30.351
employer or company associated with
strictly business podcast
