WEBVTT

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The value of investments can fall as well
as rise and losses may be made.

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This is not a buy, sell or hold
recommendation for any particular

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security.

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A year ago, it was fairly easy to predict
that the year 2025 might be an interesting

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one.

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There was a new and unpredictable resident
coming to the White House.

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Global economies and central banks were
behaving differently and creating low

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pressure here and high pressure there.

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And of course, we had a well-established
bull.

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market in gold and of course again ai
stocks and most importantly in my opinion

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a nascent

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bear market in the u.s dollar but what
promised to be an interesting year has

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turned out to be a remarkable

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one and look no further than the for
example the sa bond market to justify that

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description looking decidedly shaky at

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the end of the first quarter yields have
fallen sharply for all the right reasons

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and a full-blown bond bull market has

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ensued as for equities you

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The JSC has been an outperformer with SA
Incorporated stocks joining the party.

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But given the bond's ebullience, have
equities lagged a little bit?

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Interesting question, and it's going to be
answered from an icy Manhattan by 91 Value

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Fund manager,

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John Bickard.

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And may I be the first to wish you a Merry
Christmas, John, and a Happy New Year.

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And I think you're looking forward to
2026.

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I get the feeling.

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Yes, I think your introduction sums it up
well,

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that there's been a massive dislocation in
SA

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between equities and bonds.

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And if you just take a step back and look
in the value fund over the last 25 years,

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the money we've made has really been like
four or five what we'd call big fat

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pitches

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when there's a dislocation in the market.

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And I'll go back over that.

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25 years and 25 years ago we put all our
money in SA Inc at the beginning of the

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2000s that eventually worked out really
well.

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We avoided resources in 2008.

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We put money into Platinum sort of 2017 to
2020 eventually after waiting four or five

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years

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that really worked well.

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So all the money we've made in that period
is by betting big at the time when there's

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these

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dislocations and I think this is where we
are.

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right now between South African equities
and bonds.

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And I find it sort of quite amusing
because, you know,

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I listen to commentators talking on the SA
market and everyone now is bullish on

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bonds.

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And, you know, I mean, where were these
people when the bonds were, I mean, they

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were 10%,

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the 10-year at the beginning of the year,
I think in the first quarter, as you

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mentioned.

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They touched 11%.

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If I can interrupt you, John, just before
Liberation Day, in anticipation of

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Liberation Day,

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and then a couple of days after the
so-called Liberation Day, I think we went

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to something like 11.15%

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on the 10-year, and now we're down at
something like 8.3%.

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It's been an extraordinary time.

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Yes.

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So, I mean, that is an enormous return.

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I think the bond return for the year is
sort of 25 in Rand, but off that March

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high.

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you know, the number's probably closer to
40%.

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So, you know, on a pretty low-risk asset,
that is an enormous return.

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So, you know, to be chasing the bond
market at 830, you know, I'm no bond

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expert,

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and bonds probably are okay still, but the
real money's been made.

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And the big, the next big opportunity is
in SA equity.

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So, you know, if, just take another step
back, you know, evaluation of an equity is

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done,

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is based on...

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The two key drivers on evaluation of
equity is the current cash flows.

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Well, there are three drivers.

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The current cash flows, the long-term
growth in the cash flows, and the discount

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rate.

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And I always think the discount rate is
the most underappreciated part of

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evaluation of an equity.

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Because when people talk about you should
buy this share or buy that share, they

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talk about…

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what the company's doing and how it's
going to grow and how it's going to be so

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fantastic as they guess the future.

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You don't often hear people say you should
buy an equity because the discount rate is

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low and falling.

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You know, that's kind of boring because
it's kind of mathematical.

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But the valuation of equity is as much
driven by the discount rate as the future

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cash flows.

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And so you've had the discount rate fall
from 10 or 11 percent to eight and a half.

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You've had bonds go up.

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30%, that means an equity that was South
African rent-based,

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where there's South African rent cash
flows, if it was valued at X on the

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31st of December a year ago, it should be
valued 50% higher,

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unless you expect lower cash flows from
that equity.

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Assuming that nothing has changed in the
cash flows, which if anything, the cash

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flows have probably got better because the
SA economy has got better.

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But let's just say the cash flows are the
same.

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A SA steady cash flow generating business
should be up 50% over the last year.

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And yet, there are many equities that are
down in RAND terms.

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And probably the average SA equity off the
top of my head is probably up 10% and

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massively lagged the market.

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So that is the dislocation.

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Okay, a good dislocation as well.

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So I'll get to where this leaves you at
the moment, where you're positioned and

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where you might be positioned over the
next few

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weeks and months.

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But also let's look at fundamentals.

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I mean, Operation Vulindlela, for example,
Operation Phase One of that out of the

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way, and it's been rather good.

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Load shedding is a thing of the past,
apparently.

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Freight problems have been solved to a
good degree.

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There's more to come.

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The interest rates are...

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supposedly coming down even further.

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Inflation is under control.

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It's all set fair from a fundamental point
of view, as well as the technical and

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mathematical point of view that you've
just well described, John.

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Yeah, so I think those are all important
points.

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So what I've described is if South Africa
was the same place as a year ago, you

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know,

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an equity should be up 40 or 50%.

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But actually, the most interesting thing
is actually South Africa is in a much

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better place than it was a year ago.

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And that's Just an added bonus that I
actually think the change,

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the most important change is the terms of
trade, which is, you know, on the 31st of

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December, if I'd come to you,

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Lindsay, and said precious metals will be
up 50 percent, 60 percent,

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70 percent in RAND terms.

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And the oil price will be down 15 percent
in RAND terms.

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And bond yields will be 200 basis points
lower.

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that are trade.

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that we'd be running a trade surplus and
that the current account,

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the budget deficit would be reduced.

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And I put all those things in front of you
and said, this is what's going to happen

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over 2025.

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I think pretty much everyone would say,
well, SA shares will be up 40% and they

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haven't.

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So why is that?

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I think the first, you know, people will
say it's because there's still problems in

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South Africa and all that.

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But the pathetic truth is...

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The main reason why SA equities have
lagged is that fund managers in South

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Africa went into

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2025 very underweight platinum and gold
shares.

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And platinum and gold shares have given
the entire return of the JSE this year and

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basically have

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gone to like 25% of the index between the
two of them.

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And SA fund managers have been underweight
that.

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So in order...

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to buy more platinum and gold shares to
reduce their underweight to keep their

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jobs.

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They've had to sell the SA Inc.

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shares, and that's really what's happened.

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So, you know, people are going, well, why
haven't they responded?

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And then people start to worry about maybe
there's something I've missed.

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Well, the principal reason they haven't is
they have been used as a funder for fund

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managers to reduce their underweight in
precious metals, which makes no sense at

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all because SA Inc.

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is actually very cheap, as we've
discussed, and it is actually a

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beneficiary of precious metals.

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So you're selling the cheap thing to buy
the thing that's helping the cheap thing

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that's gone up

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200% in a year.

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It just doesn't make sense.

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But if you're lagging the index and you've
got a half weight in platinum and gold and

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your chief investment officer says,

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what are you doing?

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You narrow that underweight and you sell.

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Okay, so what's the chief investment
officer going to say at the beginning of

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the new year?

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We'll sit down and say, right, chaps,
2026.

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We messed up a little bit in 2025.

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We've got maybe another, according to this
podcast with Bickard and Williams, we've

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got another maybe 40%, 50%

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to go in SA Inc.

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stocks or certain SA Incorporated stocks.

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Anyway, do you think it's going to be a
bull market?

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And are you positioned accordingly?

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So, yes, I do.

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and I think To go back to what we said at
the beginning,

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at the moment we are basically more
overweight SA Inc.

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shares in the funds than we were prior to
the election.

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So the last time there was a real
opportunity was just prior to the election

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when everyone

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was so negative about the outcome of the
election and we basically were fully

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loaded SA Inc.

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shares and they rallied 40 or 50% after
that.

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We then sold them out and now we've bought
back and we've actually bought more now.

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So, excluding one big position we have in
commodities,

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which is African rainbow minerals, which
we think is a very good way into platinum

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and gold,

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which is the biggest position in the fund.

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Outside of that, everything else in the
portfolio.

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is in South African shares.

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And we used to have quite a lot of banks.

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Banks have actually been the better
performing SA Inc.

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I mean, I think they're still cheap,

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but they've kind of led an underperforming
pack and they've done okay.

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So what we've done is sell our ABSA and
we've rotated that money into the SA Inc.

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shares that have lagged.

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And so our biggest positions are Bitvest,
which is a real...

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it's you know it's always been a proxy for
uh inc and a popular stock for foreign

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foreign shelters and that is

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massively lag and on 11 times earnings we
think is just completely underpriced

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especially considering that they are big

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in logistics and they've got a lot of good
businesses in there our

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second biggest holding is woolworths which
has also lagged the retailers and we see

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concrete signs that that's

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turning around and then we've brought back
into the hospital companies net care and

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life health care.

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And if I say something about hospitals,
hospitals are interesting because

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hospitals are really a bond proxy in

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equities.

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There's not a lot of growth.

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They grow patient days at 1% and they grow
their top line at 5 or 6 and they're

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getting a bit of efficiency.

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So they're growing their earnings at 10 to
15%.

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But it's an annuity earning business, just
churning out rents.

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It's almost like a bond.

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but with some inflation characteristics.

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And this is exactly the kind of stock you
want.

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So instead of going to buy SA Bond on
8.3%, as we said, you can go and buy

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Life Healthcare or Netcare and their free
cash flow yield.

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In other words, a direct comparison to the
8.3% in the bond is probably more like

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12%.

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And it's growing.

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And they have not rallied at all, really.

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They are the worst performing because
people are worried still about national

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health and other things like that.

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But they are just generating rent cash
flows and are trading at a massive

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discount considering where bond

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deals are.

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So those are the kind of interesting
stocks.

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And then we've got a lot of mid-cap
shares.

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So mid-caps, you know, banks have led
because they're the most liquid.

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And in the last few months, we've seen
some foreign buying.

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in SA equities and they've come first for
the banks.

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So they come for the liquid shares first.

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So that will be things like the banks.

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And then eventually the money trickles
down to the mid caps and there's a whole

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raft of mid caps that if you

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think, but based in Woolworths and the
hospitals are cheap, the mid caps are

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crazy.

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I mean, they, you can buy any mid caps on
most mid caps in South Africa trade on

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three or four times cashflow,

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which means they trade on like 20%, 25%
free cash flow yields when the bond yield

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is 8%, which is...

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So there we have names like Italtile, Sogo
Sun, Rainbow Chickens, Invicta,

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City Lodge.

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City Lodge is one we've just bought where
things are getting a lot better and

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basically it trades at a quarter of the

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market value of its properties, which is
quite interesting.

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So you've bet big in the past and you bet
big...

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again.

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And this is all very well, all the things
I've said, all the things you've said.

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And again, going back to Operation
Vulinglela, they say that by 2030,

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South Africa's GDP will be 3% per annum,
suggesting that perhaps there's a four,

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five year bull market for SA Incorporated
stocks coming.

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Any chance, as has happened in the past,
any chance you might be wrong?

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I mean, not you're going to be wrong, but
the South African situation might

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disappoint you.

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So So obviously there's always a chance
you can be wrong.

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I guess I'd say the only, I mean, the
valuation is the valuation.

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The gap to bond yields is the gap to bond
yields.

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The improvement in SA is pretty
widespread.

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You know, it's not all one thing.

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You know, we're not putting all our money
on ESCOM.

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As you say, it's Transnet and ESCOM.

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And so it's a number of things are getting
better.

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So I guess probably the only wild card is,
I guess, politics.

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is, which by the way, always has the
smallest effect on the stock market.

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You know, politics is not as big as the
discount rate or growth, but it is a

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concern.

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So I would say where we could be wrong is,
you know,

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a Zuma type problem with respect to the
leadership of the country, which is always

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a possibility.

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I think it's unlikely, but that's probably
the wild card where we could be wrong.

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Okay, so politics is an outside chance of
a wild card scuppering the very rosy

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picture that

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you've just painted.

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John, thank you very much for your time.

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A very exciting way to end 2025. John
Bickard is Portfolio Manager,

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Value Fund at 91.

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This podcast is a marketing communication
and is provided for general information

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00:15:13.444 --> 00:15:15.444
only and assumes a certain level of
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financial markets.

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00:15:17.444 --> 00:15:19.586
It is not an invitation to make an
investment and should not be construed as

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00:15:26.968 --> 00:15:28.968
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00:15:28.968 --> 00:15:30.968
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