WEBVTT

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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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JSC has closed its doors for another day,
so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow.

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And as always, on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skalk Low, Portfolio Manager, PSG

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Wealth, Old Oak in Cape Town.

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Now, Skalk, we haven't spoken since the
war.

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Yeah.

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I've lost track of time.

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It seems as though it's been going on for
weeks, but we haven't spoken since then.

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Sort of a muted market reaction in many
ways.

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It could have been spectacularly good.

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and bad in various asset classes.

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But it wasn't.

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It was fairly orderly.

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And I use that phrase reservedly.

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But yesterday got horrible on the JSC.

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Have you survived?

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Yeah, it's been surviving.

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I mean, you had to.

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Let's get the orange elephant out of the
room.

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This was most probably one of the most
anticipated wars ever.

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Yes.

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And, you know.

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reading, I'm sort of glued to my
television screens for the past three

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days, like

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I think most people have been doing.

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And I see there's been a report an hour or
three ago coming from the New York Times,

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which indicates that the Iranian
government has already reached out to

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sources within the CIA or

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something like that, if that's true.

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Then they want to talk on a proposal to
end the war.

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So.

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You're talking about we haven't spoken
since the war started,

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and it seems like we're lucky that we're
speaking now because a war that I, on

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Monday,

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thought was most probably not going to be
one that's going to be able to end really

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soon,

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seemed like it's progressing very, very
fast.

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Interesting factoid.

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Sorry, I'm going to...

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No, I hadn't heard that story that you
just...

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I'm just turning my head as far as I can
where I am from.

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Have a look at...

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CNN just stay there you you just you just
carry on talking Scott there's my CNN

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screen

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Turkey NATO air defense intercepted
Iranian missile is there so if I mean

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CNN like all the other stations are
American based American centric so it

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would have got that I think so your

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source is better than CNN or doesn't exist
one of the two what else did you have to

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say you mentioned the word factoid.

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No, the New York Times, one that we could
just get the,

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I'm not going to read the whole article.

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It's Iran made secret outreach of the
strikes, highlighting Trump's challenge.

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And apparently, if you look at the article
itself,

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it seems like they want to talk, you know,
how to end the war.

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What I thought, why this is progressing
this quick?

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because I think to a certain extent, you
know, this morning,

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I thought that President Trump's
commitment to now ensure,

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and literally at a price,

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that all ships can now actually go through
the strait at a cost was an interesting

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one.

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But I think he could do that because if
you look at, there's a very interesting

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article that I wrote, that I listened to,

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I read this morning.

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Did you write it, read it, or listen to
it?

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Let's go for the latter.

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Okay.

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Let's go for the latter.

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And this individual, I don't know if the
author now, but he actually made a very,

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very interesting point.

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He said suddenly the war broke out.

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And that war broke out by the B-1 bombers,

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the US B-1 bombers.

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Those planes are something like $2.

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something billion per plane.

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And I think they mentioned that they've
got 20 of those,

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and five or six of them went in there and
literally with a thousand missiles.

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So we all knew the after effect.

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And then on the 1st of March, which was on
Sunday, then the B-1 bomber,

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that's a very, very, like I said, very
sophisticated plane.

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It goes supersonic, but it's also
undetectable by radar.

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So that goes in.

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in.

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On Sunday, the B-2 bombers started to go
in.

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Now, those are supersonic as well, but
they are detectable by radar.

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But they're so quick, they're so extreme.

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It's the fastest plane in the world.

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They're so extremely quick that it's still
difficult for these air defenses

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to be deployed quick enough.

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Interesting enough, yesterday...

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what was it yeah the the third sorry the
third of of march they actually started uh

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deploying the b-52

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bombers now the b-52s were from the war
from the second world war for good or post

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second world war weren't they they um they

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were around when the first nuclear uh bomb

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tests and uh deployments were around
weren't they yeah you know called the sky

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fortress i don't know why i remember this
but this thing is is massive it's It's a

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beautiful looking thing, I must say.

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It's so wide.

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I think it's got three engines on each
wing.

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Yes, it's massive.

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You can put a basketball court inside the
plane.

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It has thousands and thousands of
ammunitions.

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But they fly something like 650 miles per
hour.

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So you're not even, you know, let's call
it a thousand.

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And it goes up to 50,000.

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But they are slow and they are 100%
detectable by…

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by air defenses.

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Now, the fact that they've moved,

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the 3rd of March already moved the B-52s
into Iran shows you that they've pretty

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much knocked out

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all of Iran's air defenses.

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Is this your surmise or is this what is
stated in the article that you've read?

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It's stated in the article.

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It's stated in the article.

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And it makes sense.

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And also, if you look at the specific...

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I think it was the New York Times article
where they actually mentioned one of the

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reasons why they wanted to reach us
because they've lost

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so many Navy ships already.

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Their air defenses are really, really
crippled.

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I think just somewhere along the line,
they're going to realize, well, that's it.

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We cannot continue.

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But this is like taking a knife to a
gunfight.

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I mean, so.

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So yesterday was a biggie.

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Let's go back to yesterday now.

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What happened?

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I think the JSC was down something like
6%, nearly 6%.

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That's the all shit index.

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I don't remember seeing a 6% for quite a
while.

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I don't remember seeing a 6% actually,
apart from if you go back to no, never.

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Tell us more.

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Tell us more.

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That was just massive.

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If you look at the movement in some of
these BGM gold counters.

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Well, let's look at most of our resource
counters.

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That was horrific.

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And I sort of had a feeling that this is
going to happen.

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Because on Saturday, when the war broke
out, every second,

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let's call it professional or financial
guru sort of stated

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on Monday, when the market opens, we're
going to see the gold price up.

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$500 per ounce.

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We're going to see the silver price
surpass $100 and counting.

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They obviously weren't of the school of
thought of Scout Glow that this was the

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most well-flagged war in history.

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Maybe it's just the contrarian in me, but
yes, you're right.

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It was the most anticipated war in
history.

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And I think a lot of, not all, but...

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most of the, I would say, precious metals
move that we've seen was in anticipation

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of this.

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I mean, but because you can't say it's
only the weakening of the dollar because

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Trump is

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pressing that they should cut rates,

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and that's why the gold price suddenly
went from $3,000 to $5,000.

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It just can't be.

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So I don't know if we've had this
conversation on the AI bubble.

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Well, we've had several conversations.

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We may have mentioned it in passing, but
haven't gone in-depth on it.

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Why do you mention this?

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So people always say, and every second
article I also read is, AI is a bubble.

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So I went like, what is a bubble?

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And what constitutes a bubble?

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Now, the National Bureau of Economic
Research,

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they've got a very nice report on this
matter, a research report.

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where they actually worked out how to
quantify something as a specific asset in

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a

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bubble.

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And I'm going to save you the 76-page
report.

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Please.

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And just give you the executive summary.

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It comes down to three points.

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First one is that specific investment or
asset class should have

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grown by 100% over the past two years.

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Yes.

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Second point.

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It should have outperformed the broader
market.

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In this case, I'm just using the MSCI
All-Country World Index.

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That's as broad as you get.

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That's two yeses so far.

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Yeah, it's going to be interesting.

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And then the third one is over the
previous five years, it should have grown

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by at least 50%.

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That just sort of sorts out where a
specific asset class or investment has

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seen a

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correction.

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According to these people, but I think
that's three yeses, isn't it?

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No, that was the interesting one.

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So I went in and I looked at the
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

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That's the...

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I would say the one that represent, it's
called the USAI.

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Where do you find the time when there's a
war on?

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But anyway, that's another story.

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I've got lots of times while the CNNs and
the Bloombergs are talking at the

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background.

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But for interest sake, over the past five
years, that index has grown in dollar

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terms by 66%.

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So then, no, there's the first tick, not
100%.

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It's outperformed.

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Over the same time, the All-Country World
Index did 44. So.

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or actually 46%.

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So it's actually outperformed the broader
market by only 18%.

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Now, yes, it's done 100 and something
percent over the past five years.

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So you've got one out of three.

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But it's all been condensed into the last
two years, I would imagine.

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Yes, yes.

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And then it suddenly hit me and went like,
hey, I always need to go and look at my

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favorite,

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favorite asset class or investment type,
namely gold.

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Let's go look at...

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You really do take a long way around,
don't you?

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In English they say you really went round
the houses there.

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I tell you what, next time I say to you, I
said to, by the way, I said to Skulk

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before we started this,

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let's make this relatively brief, Skulk,

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because it's a lovely sunny day here and I
want to go out for a walk in the late

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afternoon.

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And he said, yeah, we must do.

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And you deliberately did that, didn't you?

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So I can't go for a walk.

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Next time, just say, on to gold, Lindsay.

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So to all the listeners out there, that's
exactly what Lindsay told me.

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He sort of prepped me.

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He groomed me.

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He said, please, it's a sunny day.

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And yeah, in the Netherlands, they don't
really come that often in spring.

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But so the gold price, here we go.

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Over the past two years, it has grown by
192% in dollars.

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terms.

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That's just a gold.

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That's not gold miners.

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So there's the first tick.

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Over the past two years, it's outperformed
the MSCI All Country World Index by 144%.

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Second tick.

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And over the past five years, it has grown
by 177%.

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So, yeah, to all the listeners out there,

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if you're still asking if gold is in
bubble territory,

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According to the National Bureau of
Economic Research, and that, let's call it

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76-page report,

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it is formally in a bubble.

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I don't want to know about bubbles, not
from you.

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I don't want to know about whatever
research institute you've just quoted.

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I want to know how, I want an article next
Wednesday,

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for how long do bubbles inflate?

244
00:13:04.716 --> 00:13:06.777
And you can have a bubble and you can have
it.

245
00:13:07.497 --> 00:13:09.919
sitting there in your hand or whatever,
and it's a bubble.

246
00:13:10.400 --> 00:13:11.100
So what?

247
00:13:11.360 --> 00:13:14.242
But how can it inflate more and become a
bigger bubble?

248
00:13:14.522 --> 00:13:15.643
That's the key point.

249
00:13:15.863 --> 00:13:18.865
That is where the clever person, that's
what the clever person is asking.

250
00:13:20.246 --> 00:13:21.487
No, no, no, for sure.

251
00:13:21.527 --> 00:13:22.948
So we'll have a look at it.

252
00:13:22.988 --> 00:13:29.213
But I think that the movement that we've
seen yesterday was exactly that.

253
00:13:29.893 --> 00:13:32.335
It was sort of an anticipated war.

254
00:13:32.336 --> 00:13:34.016
We've seen the...

255
00:13:35.097 --> 00:13:36.678
The gold price, the silver price,

256
00:13:36.679 --> 00:13:43.384
a lot of these precious metals really
reacted really upward in anticipation of

257
00:13:44.405 --> 00:13:45.105
this war.

258
00:13:45.285 --> 00:13:52.231
I was actually quite surprised looking
back now that oil didn't also be sort

259
00:13:52.232 --> 00:13:54.913
of priced in this most anticipated war.

260
00:13:54.953 --> 00:13:59.677
But be that as it may, and I think
yesterday's movement was sort of a case in

261
00:13:59.677 --> 00:13:59.938
point.

262
00:13:59.938 --> 00:14:00.618
Suddenly, Mr.

263
00:14:00.638 --> 00:14:01.979
Marker just realized, wait a minute.

264
00:14:02.499 --> 00:14:03.860
But, okay, this is it now.

265
00:14:03.920 --> 00:14:04.620
This is the war.

266
00:14:06.771 --> 00:14:13.357
It seems like the US and its allies,
Israel and all those countries there,

267
00:14:13.698 --> 00:14:14.959
it's got a handle on this.

268
00:14:15.860 --> 00:14:16.981
What if it's done?

269
00:14:17.081 --> 00:14:20.685
What if the war is done in a week or two?

270
00:14:21.208 --> 00:14:24.869
Like the invasion of Kuwait, in other
words, when Saddam Hussein was around.

271
00:14:25.589 --> 00:14:27.550
Everyone thought, well, this is a big war.

272
00:14:27.790 --> 00:14:29.050
It lasted 24 hours.

273
00:14:29.410 --> 00:14:34.912
Gold price was at much lower levels, but
it had been bought up in anticipation of

274
00:14:34.912 --> 00:14:35.212
the war.

275
00:14:35.212 --> 00:14:36.092
When the war stopped, that was it.

276
00:14:36.613 --> 00:14:37.313
It's gone.

277
00:14:37.413 --> 00:14:41.994
The difference with gold this time, of
course, is there are different reasons for

278
00:14:41.994 --> 00:14:43.994
gold going up.

279
00:14:43.994 --> 00:14:45.335
People didn't know about a war two years
ago.

280
00:14:45.455 --> 00:14:46.355
Two months ago, yes.

281
00:14:46.616 --> 00:14:47.956
Two years ago, no, they didn't.

282
00:14:48.280 --> 00:14:52.323
So all the recent volatility, war
volatility, that's just part of the game.

283
00:14:52.603 --> 00:14:57.567
It went to 5,400, I think it is, came back
to very close to 5,000 yesterday.

284
00:14:57.947 --> 00:14:58.807
Now what are we doing?

285
00:14:58.928 --> 00:15:01.669
Fiddling around in between those two
levels.

286
00:15:01.990 --> 00:15:07.193
But there are a lot more things than
skirmishes in the Middle East,

287
00:15:07.194 --> 00:15:12.957
and I don't want to be disrespectful to
the people that are suffering because of

288
00:15:12.957 --> 00:15:14.957
this war,

289
00:15:14.957 --> 00:15:15.199
but it's just a skirmish when it comes
to...

290
00:15:16.440 --> 00:15:19.477
you The global financial system, if you
see what I mean.

291
00:15:20.918 --> 00:15:21.618
Exactly.

292
00:15:21.619 --> 00:15:24.020
So let's say for a moment,

293
00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:30.063
I'm hopeful to all those people because
there's no winners in any war ever.

294
00:15:30.644 --> 00:15:36.547
So let's say this war can be done in a
shorter period of time.

295
00:15:37.628 --> 00:15:38.328
Where are we left?

296
00:15:38.328 --> 00:15:43.311
So firstly, we've seen a very interesting
thing yesterday and the day before.

297
00:15:43.771 --> 00:15:44.471
What happened?

298
00:15:44.631 --> 00:15:47.073
For the first time… in many, many months.

299
00:15:47.674 --> 00:15:54.059
When things got heated in the kitchen,
people didn't run to gold.

300
00:15:54.339 --> 00:15:55.300
They didn't run silver.

301
00:15:55.680 --> 00:15:59.804
If you look at the movement in Bitcoin
last week, they clearly didn't run to

302
00:15:59.804 --> 00:15:59.863
Bitcoin.

303
00:16:00.484 --> 00:16:01.945
They ran back to the dollar.

304
00:16:02.286 --> 00:16:08.131
And that was, I think, one of the most
interesting points that still in this,

305
00:16:08.291 --> 00:16:09.652
let's call it uncertainty.

306
00:16:09.812 --> 00:16:11.954
Dollar index went above 99, didn't it?

307
00:16:11.955 --> 00:16:14.536
And it's only this afternoon and it
suddenly dipped back again.

308
00:16:15.824 --> 00:16:16.524
Correct.

309
00:16:16.684 --> 00:16:17.384
Correct.

310
00:16:18.245 --> 00:16:23.866
So let's say this war is done, and I'm
hoping and I do feel that it will be done.

311
00:16:24.046 --> 00:16:24.746
Yes.

312
00:16:24.907 --> 00:16:26.207
Then where are we left?

313
00:16:26.427 --> 00:16:31.428
Well, we're still left with Trump that's
made it blatantly clear.

314
00:16:32.629 --> 00:16:38.651
Because that's the one thing, one of the
reasons why the dollar also attracted,

315
00:16:38.651 --> 00:16:40.651
because people suddenly realized, ha ha
ha,

316
00:16:40.651 --> 00:16:42.972
there's absolutely no way Trump will put
some pressure now.

317
00:16:43.192 --> 00:16:43.892
And it added.

318
00:16:43.892 --> 00:16:48.336
pressure on the Fed as well to, you need
to go and cut rates,

319
00:16:48.856 --> 00:16:52.880
not while we're sitting with an oil price
of $85 per barrel.

320
00:16:53.920 --> 00:16:59.685
He's not going to put pressure on the Fed
to go and cut rates aggressively as it is.

321
00:16:59.785 --> 00:17:02.047
So yeah, I agree with that.

322
00:17:02.048 --> 00:17:02.768
It's not going to happen.

323
00:17:04.709 --> 00:17:06.050
But now, let's say the war is done.

324
00:17:06.351 --> 00:17:08.072
He's then going to go and say, wait a
minute.

325
00:17:08.693 --> 00:17:12.736
My playbook has always been we're going to
cut rates and we're going to cut rates.

326
00:17:12.936 --> 00:17:14.396
aggressive.

327
00:17:14.657 --> 00:17:19.538
And then suddenly the dollar is just going
to realize, oh, wait a minute, we're going

328
00:17:19.538 --> 00:17:21.538
to have lower rates.

329
00:17:21.538 --> 00:17:26.220
If we're going to have lower rates, then
the dollar should continue its weakening

330
00:17:26.220 --> 00:17:28.220
path, which naturally, again,

331
00:17:28.220 --> 00:17:30.220
will be good for the world.

332
00:17:30.220 --> 00:17:31.281
We are assuming, or you're assuming that
the war is over.

333
00:17:31.321 --> 00:17:32.762
There's two schools of thought here.

334
00:17:33.102 --> 00:17:36.843
There's many, many schools of thought, but
there's two schools that I'm going to

335
00:17:36.843 --> 00:17:38.843
focus on now.

336
00:17:38.843 --> 00:17:40.544
The ones that say it's all over, they're
using B-52s.

337
00:17:41.505 --> 00:17:48.129
Those old heaps that should have been
taken out of service 20 years ago that are

338
00:17:48.129 --> 00:17:50.129
still flying because they're workhorses

339
00:17:50.129 --> 00:17:52.129
and they do their job.

340
00:17:52.129 --> 00:17:52.333
So the war is over now.

341
00:17:52.893 --> 00:17:55.335
There's another school of thought that
says the

342
00:17:55.975 --> 00:18:01.239
Iranians are just reconvening, if you
like.

343
00:18:01.299 --> 00:18:04.422
They are going to announce a new supreme
leader.

344
00:18:04.562 --> 00:18:06.343
That new supreme leader will sit down.

345
00:18:06.583 --> 00:18:07.283
if he can...

346
00:18:07.624 --> 00:18:13.310
He's got to keep his eye on the window at
all times, though,

347
00:18:13.930 --> 00:18:15.732
because with Israeli and U.S.

348
00:18:15.792 --> 00:18:18.935
intelligence, the likelihood of him
getting taken out is quite high.

349
00:18:19.215 --> 00:18:25.061
But let's say that they do have a new
supreme leader with a council that

350
00:18:25.061 --> 00:18:27.061
replaced all the others,

351
00:18:27.061 --> 00:18:29.061
all the other people that were killed.

352
00:18:29.061 --> 00:18:29.245
And then he says, OK, now I'm in charge.

353
00:18:29.285 --> 00:18:30.086
We're going to do this.

354
00:18:30.126 --> 00:18:32.308
He's still got the Revolutionary Guard
there.

355
00:18:33.148 --> 00:18:36.751
He may still have some missiles hidden
away somewhere.

356
00:18:36.752 --> 00:18:38.032
He may still have a navy.

357
00:18:38.333 --> 00:18:40.715
And then say, right, what we've got left,
let's attack.

358
00:18:40.815 --> 00:18:43.917
Let's keep on attacking Israel with the
missiles.

359
00:18:43.997 --> 00:18:46.019
Let's attack American ships with missiles.

360
00:18:46.479 --> 00:18:52.864
And let's have a go at blockading the
Strait of Hormuz so that the West suffers

361
00:18:52.864 --> 00:18:54.864
and oil prices go to $90 to

362
00:18:54.864 --> 00:18:55.747
$100 a barrel.

363
00:18:55.927 --> 00:19:01.051
And then that's when the Donald Trump
factor comes in, Scott, because Donald

364
00:19:01.051 --> 00:19:03.051
Trump will get bored then.

365
00:19:03.051 --> 00:19:07.674
He likes to make big splashes you know he
loves to say things like he said recently

366
00:19:07.674 --> 00:19:09.674
he said we're

367
00:19:09.674 --> 00:19:13.216
going to cut all ties with spain no trade
with spain because the spanish wouldn't

368
00:19:13.216 --> 00:19:15.216
wouldn't let his his planes his

369
00:19:15.216 --> 00:19:16.037
b-52s refuel or take off

370
00:19:16.538 --> 00:19:23.501
uh and attack iran he there's the spanish
the left-wing spanish government says no

371
00:19:23.501 --> 00:19:25.501
you can't do that you're not going

372
00:19:25.501 --> 00:19:27.422
to use us as a platform for your murderous
activities so

373
00:19:27.982 --> 00:19:33.673
trump immediately blurted it out in three
weeks time he won't even remember that

374
00:19:33.673 --> 00:19:35.673
There'll be trade going on between

375
00:19:35.673 --> 00:19:37.673
Spain and the United States.

376
00:19:37.673 --> 00:19:39.673
It's the same with Iran.

377
00:19:39.673 --> 00:19:41.673
If it doesn't happen quickly, and let's
face it, it happened quickly.

378
00:19:41.673 --> 00:19:43.673
They killed the leader on day one.

379
00:19:43.673 --> 00:19:45.673
The first bomb killed him.

380
00:19:45.673 --> 00:19:47.673
So then he'll have to move on to something
else.

381
00:19:47.673 --> 00:19:50.348
It's in his interest to get this thing
over with, or in everyone's interest,

382
00:19:50.368 --> 00:19:56.214
because otherwise he'll just leave the
mess behind him and then move on to

383
00:19:56.214 --> 00:19:58.214
goodness knows who knows next, North
Korea.

384
00:19:58.214 --> 00:20:00.214
That's my big bet.

385
00:20:00.214 --> 00:20:00.679
He goes on about, we've got to...

386
00:20:01.460 --> 00:20:02.241
No, no, listen.

387
00:20:02.502 --> 00:20:03.202
No, listen.

388
00:20:03.202 --> 00:20:03.762
No, listen.

389
00:20:05.025 --> 00:20:07.910
This is me and I promise I'll get back in
my box after this.

390
00:20:08.611 --> 00:20:11.875
Donald Trump said that the reason that the
war is...

391
00:20:12.884 --> 00:20:17.047
is occurring now, their rationale behind
it was because they wanted to stop

392
00:20:17.407 --> 00:20:21.350
Iran developing missiles that could hit
America and hurt American citizens.

393
00:20:21.970 --> 00:20:24.973
North Korea's already got that, or is very
close to getting that.

394
00:20:25.873 --> 00:20:31.637
Quietly behind the scenes and with the
help of money from China and Russia

395
00:20:31.637 --> 00:20:33.637
sometimes,

396
00:20:33.637 --> 00:20:38.842
has got the money to have its nasty
ambitions fulfilled.

397
00:20:39.583 --> 00:20:44.745
So Trump must surely say to himself, Okay,
Greenland, I'm bored with that.

398
00:20:45.265 --> 00:20:49.226
Panama Canal, I did say that once, but I
don't really care.

399
00:20:49.606 --> 00:20:50.947
Venezuela, that's already done.

400
00:20:50.948 --> 00:20:51.667
That was too quick.

401
00:20:51.887 --> 00:20:52.707
That was nice and quick.

402
00:20:53.367 --> 00:20:59.009
Colombia, I forgot about because I met
with the Prime Minister, the President

403
00:20:59.009 --> 00:21:01.009
rather,

404
00:21:01.009 --> 00:21:03.009
and we got on quite well.

405
00:21:03.009 --> 00:21:05.009
So I'm not going to hit Colombia like I
said I would.

406
00:21:05.009 --> 00:21:07.009
So let's have a look.

407
00:21:07.009 --> 00:21:09.009
Iran done.

408
00:21:09.009 --> 00:21:11.009
What can I have a go at next?

409
00:21:11.009 --> 00:21:13.009
No one in Europe I can go for.

410
00:21:13.009 --> 00:21:15.258
uh russia ukraine gosh that's been a bore
so north korea that's how his mind works

411
00:21:15.258 --> 00:21:17.258
it's like a child

412
00:21:17.258 --> 00:21:21.783
he wants a toy one day he wants a
batmobile one day oh please can i have a

413
00:21:21.783 --> 00:21:23.783
batmobile and then a day later it's in the
back of the cupboard

414
00:21:23.783 --> 00:21:24.385
he wants spider-man you

415
00:21:24.425 --> 00:21:31.071
you use the word you use the word bored i
i'm gonna use a different word but i'm

416
00:21:31.071 --> 00:21:33.071
gonna use his own word so i think my

417
00:21:33.071 --> 00:21:34.854
tweet of the week was by far by a country
mile.

418
00:21:35.354 --> 00:21:39.257
This tweet although It was retweeted this
week.

419
00:21:39.938 --> 00:21:45.281
Actually dates back to the 9th of October
2012 by a real Donald Trump.

420
00:21:45.582 --> 00:21:47.443
So this is POTUS himself.

421
00:21:48.223 --> 00:21:49.044
I'm going to read this.

422
00:21:50.805 --> 00:21:53.707
Now that Obama's poll numbers are in a
tailspin,

423
00:21:54.268 --> 00:21:58.090
watch him launch a strike in Libya or
Iran.

424
00:21:58.470 --> 00:21:59.311
He's desperate.

425
00:22:01.392 --> 00:22:05.715
That's his tweet of, let's call it 14
years ago, close to 14 years ago.

426
00:22:05.815 --> 00:22:06.515
So you say.

427
00:22:06.860 --> 00:22:09.181
You say, yeah, he's bored.

428
00:22:09.622 --> 00:22:13.143
I say there might be a case of a bit of
desperation in it.

429
00:22:14.264 --> 00:22:16.045
I think it's a difficult one.

430
00:22:16.325 --> 00:22:20.287
I don't want to speculate on what Trump is
going to do.

431
00:22:20.327 --> 00:22:25.150
I think for now, when I look at the actual
facts, and the actual facts are showing us

432
00:22:25.150 --> 00:22:27.150
that,

433
00:22:27.371 --> 00:22:28.492
let's say the war is done.

434
00:22:28.972 --> 00:22:34.915
The actual facts say the Fed, remember the
Fed tool, the Fed watch tool,

435
00:22:34.916 --> 00:22:36.156
the one that we usually look at.

436
00:22:36.316 --> 00:22:37.016
the probability.

437
00:22:37.396 --> 00:22:43.798
Now, you remember the last time we spoke,
I told you that there was pretty much now

438
00:22:43.798 --> 00:22:45.798
no more probability.

439
00:22:45.798 --> 00:22:48.399
I think on that side, it got down to about
20% probability for a rate cut in March.

440
00:22:48.759 --> 00:22:53.281
And then I told you there's pretty much no
chance of a rate cut anymore, but we're

441
00:22:53.281 --> 00:22:55.281
looking at more than 60%

442
00:22:55.281 --> 00:22:55.961
probability of a rate cut in April.

443
00:22:56.021 --> 00:23:02.343
Now, still no chance now anymore for the
18th of March, but for the 29th of April,

444
00:23:03.283 --> 00:23:05.524
it's now only a 10% probability.

445
00:23:05.908 --> 00:23:07.930
for a rate cut in April.

446
00:23:08.350 --> 00:23:11.653
And when you push it out to June, there's
only about a third.

447
00:23:11.654 --> 00:23:17.437
There's about 34 odd percent probability
for a rate cut in June.

448
00:23:18.979 --> 00:23:24.243
If this war ends today, I promise you
those probabilities...

449
00:23:24.923 --> 00:23:26.084
Exactly, exactly.

450
00:23:26.425 --> 00:23:29.847
And that will put some pressure again on
the dollar, which again,

451
00:23:30.608 --> 00:23:35.172
I think will sort of support wherever the
gold and silver stabilize.

452
00:23:35.612 --> 00:23:38.053
I think it will support those precious
metals again.

453
00:23:38.353 --> 00:23:44.476
But I think more importantly, there's a
massive correlation with a weaker dollar

454
00:23:44.476 --> 00:23:46.476
and emerging markets.

455
00:23:46.476 --> 00:23:47.857
That's why we've seen such a nice flight
to emerging markets.

456
00:23:48.077 --> 00:23:50.518
Good for South Africa, yes, but also
other.

457
00:23:50.519 --> 00:23:54.320
I mean, look at the likes of South Korea.

458
00:23:54.380 --> 00:23:55.080
I mean,

459
00:23:55.240 --> 00:24:02.183
that market has been the number one market
in the world in 2025.

460
00:24:02.243 --> 00:24:03.924
And this year, I think year to date, it
was up.

461
00:24:04.124 --> 00:24:05.865
already something like 50%.

462
00:24:05.866 --> 00:24:11.126
I had a massive retracement yesterday, but
these emerging markets are attracting a

463
00:24:11.126 --> 00:24:13.126
lot of money.

464
00:24:13.126 --> 00:24:19.288
Eight out of the top 10 countries
year-to-date up to Saturday, all emerging

465
00:24:19.288 --> 00:24:21.288
markets,

466
00:24:21.288 --> 00:24:23.990
purely because on the back of a weaker
dollar, that's what you should expect.

467
00:24:23.991 --> 00:24:26.811
You should expect a flight towards
emerging markets.

468
00:24:26.951 --> 00:24:30.572
I still think that theme is very much
intact.

469
00:24:33.817 --> 00:24:40.200
I spoke to a fund manager yesterday just
to end the war talk and I said what have

470
00:24:40.200 --> 00:24:42.200
you been doing he said well we went into
the war in a

471
00:24:42.200 --> 00:24:47.163
slightly defensive with a slightly
defensive stance and we felt that certain

472
00:24:47.163 --> 00:24:49.163
asset classes

473
00:24:49.163 --> 00:24:49.424
were priced to perfection so

474
00:24:49.544 --> 00:24:55.907
we took a bit of profit and we are now
looking at opportunities because if you

475
00:24:55.907 --> 00:24:57.907
look at a geopolitical

476
00:24:57.907 --> 00:25:03.321
chart And look at how the markets behaved,
overlay the charts on the geopolitical

477
00:25:03.321 --> 00:25:05.321
events on whatever date they were.

478
00:25:05.321 --> 00:25:10.848
You know that some dips lasted longer than
others, but no matter how long they

479
00:25:10.848 --> 00:25:12.848
lasted, the markets go to new high after
that.

480
00:25:12.848 --> 00:25:13.430
I'm talking specifically equity markets.

481
00:25:13.750 --> 00:25:18.354
So just, I'm not going to say buy, but

482
00:25:19.055 --> 00:25:23.278
I'm saying that a pattern has formed, not
over the years, but over the decades.

483
00:25:23.439 --> 00:25:24.480
Correct.

484
00:25:24.600 --> 00:25:25.300
Skulk.

485
00:25:25.921 --> 00:25:32.868
so we've sorted that out now we've sorted
out the war we need to take this home if

486
00:25:32.868 --> 00:25:33.148
you still

487
00:25:33.148 --> 00:25:39.137
want to catch some race so I'm going to
lead now And you are going to tell me,

488
00:25:39.657 --> 00:25:46.059
because this is the 5 o'clock shadow and
it's a predominantly South African-based

489
00:25:46.059 --> 00:25:48.059
podcast, tell me about Woolies, please.

490
00:25:48.059 --> 00:25:49.480
And I don't want to know how many frozen
lasagnas they sold.

491
00:25:49.820 --> 00:25:53.561
I want to know the general feeling about
these numbers, please.

492
00:25:54.462 --> 00:26:00.583
I thought it was, you know, I've been
tough on the company for many, many, many,

493
00:26:00.963 --> 00:26:01.663
many years.

494
00:26:02.084 --> 00:26:05.785
And mostly to do with the Australian
businesses.

495
00:26:06.005 --> 00:26:08.286
and then we know David Jones is no more.

496
00:26:08.646 --> 00:26:13.428
So the only one that's still there is
Country Road Group.

497
00:26:13.968 --> 00:26:17.870
And last time, that still seemed to
struggle.

498
00:26:17.950 --> 00:26:24.012
This time around, with this, let's call it
the unordered interim results for this

499
00:26:24.752 --> 00:26:31.055
26-week period, it did seem like Country
Road's, not massive growth, but 2.3%

500
00:26:31.195 --> 00:26:34.777
growth at least showed an uptick.

501
00:26:36.133 --> 00:26:37.114
In general, it looked good.

502
00:26:37.594 --> 00:26:42.517
When I look at the total performances,
turnover up

503
00:26:42.958 --> 00:26:48.181
5.4%, which is good for a 26-week period.

504
00:26:48.221 --> 00:26:51.664
That's quite a few inflations plus.

505
00:26:53.505 --> 00:26:59.549
When you look at the headline earnings per
share, that we always knew was going to

506
00:26:59.549 --> 00:27:01.549
the earnings per share is always going to
be down.

507
00:27:01.549 --> 00:27:03.872
When you look at the headline earnings per
share, that's going to be positive, 10%

508
00:27:03.872 --> 00:27:05.872
up.

509
00:27:05.872 --> 00:27:08.314
In general, just when I went through this,
it looked good.

510
00:27:09.135 --> 00:27:11.436
The show still remained Woody's Food
Sales.

511
00:27:11.576 --> 00:27:16.959
That site was up 7% compared to the
previous 26 weeks.

512
00:27:16.979 --> 00:27:20.801
It was good year on year back in the days,
5.2% growth.

513
00:27:20.802 --> 00:27:22.762
So that's really, really good.

514
00:27:23.343 --> 00:27:25.164
The online site is still growing.

515
00:27:25.184 --> 00:27:30.366
I mean, you know, we often refer to 60-60
as the online delivery.

516
00:27:30.647 --> 00:27:34.849
But, I mean, the Woody's Dash, I mean,
that has grown by 23% over this.

517
00:27:35.469 --> 00:27:38.592
26 week period so that's really good.

518
00:27:38.593 --> 00:27:39.712
And the market likes it Skull?

519
00:27:40.893 --> 00:27:46.517
Oh yes, I mean up 1.4% at one stage, it
was quite a bit high,

520
00:27:46.577 --> 00:27:53.002
I looked at it I thought it was sort of
4.5% rally at one stage.

521
00:27:53.162 --> 00:28:00.087
It was, it was it was but it did retrace a
little bit to the latter part of the day

522
00:28:00.087 --> 00:28:00.287
and it

523
00:28:00.287 --> 00:28:01.768
up 1.4%.

524
00:28:01.769 --> 00:28:04.090
Okay, not bad you Right, let me give you
some numbers now.

525
00:28:04.150 --> 00:28:08.253
The dollar round is 16.33, got into the
16.60s yesterday.

526
00:28:08.333 --> 00:28:10.956
The euro round is 19 on the button.

527
00:28:11.416 --> 00:28:14.478
And the British pound against the round
is, what is it?

528
00:28:14.779 --> 00:28:15.479
There it is.

529
00:28:15.559 --> 00:28:21.404
21.84 euro dollar, just around about the
116 to 10 level.

530
00:28:21.804 --> 00:28:27.789
I've got the gold price at 51.51, which is
64 dollars higher, one and a quarter

531
00:28:27.789 --> 00:28:29.789
percent platinum price.

532
00:28:29.789 --> 00:28:34.932
is nearly $100 higher at 2163, up 4.8%,
whereas palladium has gone down by nearly

533
00:28:34.932 --> 00:28:34.952
9%,

534
00:28:35.332 --> 00:28:39.594
so a complete diversion between the two
major platinum group metals.

535
00:28:39.595 --> 00:28:44.556
And 1703 is the current prevailing price
of palladium.

536
00:28:44.596 --> 00:28:47.758
Now let's look at the oil prices, which
has been fascinating today.

537
00:28:47.759 --> 00:28:53.841
As soon as Trump said he would help
vessels going through the straightforward

538
00:28:53.841 --> 00:28:55.841
moves with its own navy...

539
00:28:55.841 --> 00:29:00.243
after the threats from Iran to firebomb
all these poor sailors.

540
00:29:01.164 --> 00:29:07.127
Crude oil in the United States, West Texas
crude, $73.74, which is down 1.1% on its

541
00:29:07.127 --> 00:29:09.127
lows of the day.

542
00:29:09.127 --> 00:29:13.209
Brent crude oil, $80.65, down nearly 1%.

543
00:29:13.210 --> 00:29:17.511
The copper price is $5.86, was above six
yesterday.

544
00:29:17.671 --> 00:29:18.972
That's per pound in New York.

545
00:29:19.472 --> 00:29:20.653
And what else have we got here?

546
00:29:21.233 --> 00:29:23.054
The Bitcoin price has been very
interesting.

547
00:29:23.074 --> 00:29:28.877
It was in the 60s all of last week, went
down to 62,500, 63,000, is now 72,500,

548
00:29:28.917 --> 00:29:32.980
73,000 at the moment, up 7.6% on the day.

549
00:29:33.360 --> 00:29:35.581
It likes no war, it didn't like the war.

550
00:29:35.681 --> 00:29:36.802
It's not a safe haven.

551
00:29:37.222 --> 00:29:39.563
It's just a speculative tool.

552
00:29:39.564 --> 00:29:46.247
8.22 is the South African 10-year bond
yield, which is 10 basis points higher

553
00:29:46.247 --> 00:29:48.247
than the US 10-year,

554
00:29:48.247 --> 00:29:49.089
having gone below for a couple of days,
below 4%.

555
00:29:50.129 --> 00:29:55.372
Now 4.085%. S&P 500 futures close to their
highs up 0.7% now,

556
00:29:55.412 --> 00:29:58.754
6,873.

557
00:29:59.394 --> 00:30:01.876
And Skulk, what about the JSC today?

558
00:30:02.116 --> 00:30:03.116
Horrible day yesterday.

559
00:30:03.236 --> 00:30:05.137
All the diggers were the losers.

560
00:30:05.558 --> 00:30:07.239
What were the winners today?

561
00:30:07.279 --> 00:30:08.139
We'll start with the winners.

562
00:30:10.620 --> 00:30:14.283
It sort of started off way better when you
look at this morning.

563
00:30:14.303 --> 00:30:18.705
But I mean, the likes of Afrimat, I think
that was done.

564
00:30:18.905 --> 00:30:19.605
Wow, massive.

565
00:30:19.605 --> 00:30:24.327
And one stage, AfroMAT, I think today,
recovered most of its losses, yes,

566
00:30:24.387 --> 00:30:31.329
and it gained something like 16 or 17%,
but still down from the previous day, up

567
00:30:31.329 --> 00:30:33.329
10% for today.

568
00:30:33.329 --> 00:30:33.469
Northern Platinum up 8%.

569
00:30:34.190 --> 00:30:36.570
Aspen, interesting one, 5.6%, up.

570
00:30:36.590 --> 00:30:39.331
Valterra, 5.3%.

571
00:30:39.351 --> 00:30:42.292
African Rainbow Minerals, 4.8%.

572
00:30:42.293 --> 00:30:45.813
I'm just going to mention the sixth one
because that's also a company that

573
00:30:46.434 --> 00:30:52.406
brought a trading statement today that's
cash flow not going to go into that

574
00:30:52.406 --> 00:30:54.406
because then you definitely can have a
walk but

575
00:30:54.406 --> 00:30:57.777
brought out some some positive numbers on
the trading statement that helped the cash

576
00:30:57.777 --> 00:30:59.777
flow company now

577
00:30:59.777 --> 00:31:01.159
to increase by 4.5%.

578
00:31:01.279 --> 00:31:07.421
When you look at the losers, Tungela, a
massive day yesterday, so maybe just a bit

579
00:31:07.421 --> 00:31:09.421
of a breather today,

580
00:31:09.421 --> 00:31:11.421
down 6%.

581
00:31:11.421 --> 00:31:12.382
Also a company that had on one stage,

582
00:31:12.502 --> 00:31:17.023
I think on one stage it was up over 150
Rand per share.

583
00:31:17.024 --> 00:31:23.145
It was, and I thought about you and I
thought, has this thing tripled over the

584
00:31:23.145 --> 00:31:25.145
last two years or even less?

585
00:31:25.145 --> 00:31:27.145
Less, no, less.

586
00:31:27.145 --> 00:31:29.145
It was trading 50.

587
00:31:29.145 --> 00:31:33.310
50 Rand last year, I've never groven from
it, I'm going to go into that, but I know

588
00:31:33.310 --> 00:31:35.310
one stage it was trading at 50 Rand last
year,

589
00:31:35.310 --> 00:31:37.612
so yes, on one stage, way over 150 Rand,
today down again 5%.

590
00:31:38.773 --> 00:31:44.276
After, initially, opening a little bit
higher, but 138 Rand, 81,

591
00:31:44.716 --> 00:31:49.199
very much back to its levels prior to the
war started.

592
00:31:49.619 --> 00:31:54.922
Spore, I mean, just, it had a better day,
so to speak.

593
00:31:55.402 --> 00:31:59.264
But I mean, at 65.85, it's still down 3.5%
again today.

594
00:31:59.324 --> 00:32:05.926
Quilter also brought out a trading
statement talking about preliminary

595
00:32:05.926 --> 00:32:07.926
results.

596
00:32:07.926 --> 00:32:09.926
Not going to go into that as well.

597
00:32:09.926 --> 00:32:11.429
Market did not like it, down 3.4%.

598
00:32:11.430 --> 00:32:13.229
And yeah, and now it's a bush.

599
00:32:13.289 --> 00:32:18.772
I mean, one that you would have thought is
a serious defensive stock today.

600
00:32:20.412 --> 00:32:24.654
Also some news on that side, they're down
2.6%.

601
00:32:24.962 --> 00:32:25.662
Very good.

602
00:32:25.662 --> 00:32:27.464
So, Carl, I want to talk about one thing
just before we go.

603
00:32:27.824 --> 00:32:34.247
And we spoke about this stock on a couple
of occasions, and I asked you to look at

604
00:32:34.247 --> 00:32:36.247
it on one occasion, and I think you did
do.

605
00:32:36.247 --> 00:32:38.970
And we said to ourselves, why isn't it
going up when volumes on the JSC itself

606
00:32:38.970 --> 00:32:40.970
are going up?

607
00:32:40.970 --> 00:32:41.452
I looked at the graph of JSC Limited.

608
00:32:41.752 --> 00:32:47.415
It's up 66% in the 52-week period, 66%
from its low of 106.

609
00:32:47.635 --> 00:32:50.637
This is when I looked at it yesterday, not
yesterday, the day before, I think.

610
00:32:51.978 --> 00:32:52.678
it.

611
00:32:52.678 --> 00:32:56.620
It had made a low of around 106, 107 in
the 52-week period.

612
00:32:56.760 --> 00:33:03.463
And on the day I looked at it Monday, 176
rand per share.

613
00:33:04.043 --> 00:33:05.864
Just has taken off skunk.

614
00:33:06.725 --> 00:33:07.765
Yeah, you called that one.

615
00:33:08.265 --> 00:33:08.965
We did have a look.

616
00:33:09.006 --> 00:33:14.969
We looked at the volumes back in the day
and how the volumes, and I'll read the

617
00:33:14.969 --> 00:33:15.208
volumes.

618
00:33:15.208 --> 00:33:18.050
But usually, you and I, we read the daily
volumes as well.

619
00:33:18.790 --> 00:33:24.454
And we had this conversation, I think a
year, year and a half ago, where we said,

620
00:33:24.454 --> 00:33:26.454
oh, that the volumes on the J's is just
shocking.

621
00:33:26.454 --> 00:33:31.217
We're still trading at similar trading
days that we've seen in 2016, 17 and 18.

622
00:33:31.238 --> 00:33:32.558
And then suddenly it just picked up.

623
00:33:32.758 --> 00:33:33.459
And you called it.

624
00:33:33.460 --> 00:33:34.599
You said we had to look at it.

625
00:33:35.320 --> 00:33:39.302
That definitely will have a positive
effect on the share price, which it did.

626
00:33:39.582 --> 00:33:40.663
Always a nice dividend payer.

627
00:33:40.923 --> 00:33:43.345
And yeah, maybe the easy money has been
made now.

628
00:33:43.425 --> 00:33:45.146
But yeah, good call on that one.

629
00:33:45.266 --> 00:33:45.966
Good call.

630
00:33:45.966 --> 00:33:49.267
Okay, let's talk about volumes now and the
closing indices, if you would, Skulk.

631
00:33:50.228 --> 00:33:51.208
So let's start with the closing.

632
00:33:51.688 --> 00:33:58.331
JSC today closed at 121,114 points, just
shy of 1% positive for the day.

633
00:33:58.332 --> 00:34:04.534
The top 40, however, up 1.1%. And today
was driven by the resources.

634
00:34:04.934 --> 00:34:07.735
Originally up close to 3% earlier today,

635
00:34:08.915 --> 00:34:12.037
but at the end of the day up only 1.4%.

636
00:34:12.038 --> 00:34:15.078
Industrials up 1.2%, while the
financials...

637
00:34:15.318 --> 00:34:16.978
were up 0.7%.

638
00:34:17.058 --> 00:34:20.839
The SA property index didn't get itself in
positive territory.

639
00:34:20.900 --> 00:34:22.600
That was down 0.8%.

640
00:34:22.601 --> 00:34:26.881
When we look at the volumes for today,
solid, solid trailing days.

641
00:34:26.882 --> 00:34:32.803
And just, I don't know if you've looked at
this the previous few days, but what we've

642
00:34:32.803 --> 00:34:32.963
seen,

643
00:34:34.443 --> 00:34:39.765
we've had Thursday, there was over 33
billion that went through the market.

644
00:34:40.925 --> 00:34:43.866
Previous day was 29, so it's also a 30
billion day.

645
00:34:45.186 --> 00:34:48.689
51 on Friday just before the war started.

646
00:34:49.009 --> 00:34:49.890
And it just didn't stop.

647
00:34:50.050 --> 00:34:51.931
We had 37, then 46,

648
00:34:51.972 --> 00:34:57.136
and again today over 32 billion value
traded over the course of the day.

649
00:34:57.137 --> 00:34:58.737
So yeah, you're 100% right.

650
00:34:58.738 --> 00:35:01.820
The JSC definitely is looking way better
with these type of volumes.

651
00:35:02.140 --> 00:35:02.840
Excellent, Skull.

652
00:35:02.840 --> 00:35:04.181
Thanks so much for your time.

653
00:35:04.342 --> 00:35:08.705
Skullclaw is from PSG Wealth Old Oak in
Cape Town, and that was the 5 o'clock

654
00:35:08.705 --> 00:35:08.805
shadow.

655
00:35:09.226 --> 00:35:14.550
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

656
00:35:14.550 --> 00:35:16.550
various contributors.

657
00:35:16.550 --> 00:35:20.674
and do not reflect the policy, position,
or opinion of any other agency,

658
00:35:20.674 --> 00:35:22.674
organization, employer,

659
00:35:22.674 --> 00:35:24.857
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

660
00:35:25.337 --> 00:35:32.302
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

661
00:35:32.302 --> 00:35:34.302
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

662
00:35:34.302 --> 00:35:38.487
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

663
00:35:38.487 --> 00:35:40.487
change, revision,

664
00:35:40.487 --> 00:35:40.628
and rethinking at any time.

665
00:35:40.928 --> 00:35:43.350
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
