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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Thursday, I have the
doubleheader dream team edition of Viv

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Govender from the award-winning

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Rand Swiss and David Shapiro from Sasson
Securities.

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And David Shapiro is award-winning.

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I suppose the two go together.

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David, I'm going to have to start with you
today because...

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You're not in Johannesburg, you're in New
York.

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And I worried about you on Monday because
of the blizzard situation on the northeast

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coast.

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How did it affect you?

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Because Aviv and I live our traveling
lives vicariously through you.

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Well, we were the first plane, I flew from
London, I flew to London,

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and we were the first plane that they
allowed to land on Tuesday morning.

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And they only opened up the, this is New
York, they only opened up the airport at

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12 and we came in like, you know.

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quarter past 20 past 12.

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So there were some others circling.

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The airport was quite empty.

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We got through customs and everything.

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In fact, the poor taxi driver,

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he had brought someone to the airport at
nine o'clock and had to wait almost three

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hours to get a journey back,

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you know, to collect a fare back.

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So, and planes only started to take off
there.

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But flying from London, you over the US
coming around.

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what would be the northeast Boston and
that you just looked on the ground and you

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saw this absolute blanket of

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white and you know it's now Thursday it's
still very cold the snow is still around

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makes it very dangerous to walk but this
is going to last I think for another week

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before you start to see the melt so

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yeah it's it's for for people like Viv and
myself you know who are not used to this

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kind of weather.

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It's a big change.

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You know, every step, you've got to be
careful.

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I went out this morning.

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I wasn't going to run.

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I went walking.

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Yeah.

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But it's so dangerous.

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But Central Park must be beautiful, David.

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I had a friend who got stuck there, and
she wanted to come back as soon as

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possible because she's got a young child,

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and she was missing the thing.

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And I can understand that.

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But I would imagine that to be stuck in
New York during this snowy period for a

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young, fit person must be fantastic.

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Fantastic.

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No, it was beautiful.

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Central Park is beautiful.

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You know,

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the one thing that impresses me is that
how quickly workers come out and

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put salt on the road and clear the snow.

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And, you know, literally within hours, not
even, within minutes of a snowfall, they

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clear the roads.

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One of the big problems is that people
park on the side.

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and when you clear with a...

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with a front-end loader, you know, the
snow's got to go somewhere.

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So they just pile it on the cars and say,
you're toughies, you know, we told you to

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move your cars.

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So they get stuck in.

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They're literally stuck in the snow, you
know, on the side of the road.

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I saw a very good CNN piece this morning
of exactly that, and a chap was walking

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along thinking, you know,

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I've almost got to work or to the shop or
something, and along comes a snowplough,

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bush, a wall of snow whacked him over.

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But anyway, let's not talk about that.

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Viv, NVIDIA's numbers, what did you make
of them?

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Spectacular, but not good enough.

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That's pretty much what it was.

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They were incredible numbers.

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I mean, this company has a 70-something
percent profit margin,

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making unbelievable amounts of money each
quarter.

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And the market today is pretty down 3.5%.

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It is basically as good as you could
imagine, beat estimates, et cetera.

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But, you know, again, the market had put
in so much, you know, in terms of

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expectations into it that it was,

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you know, virtually impossible to beat it.

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Yeah.

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But also, it's not just the numbers that
come out, as we as we well know, Viv, it's

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the outlook statement, the tone of it,

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the projections, how much they might make,
how much they might not make.

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And I believe that must be the one that
has knocked it three and a half percent.

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No, even the outlook was better than
anticipated.

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They beat Q4 expectations for results and
they give a better than expected outlook

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for Q1 of this year.

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The market, whatever the expectations you
bring in there, the market is basically,

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it just was not in the mood,

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unless the results were even better than
this to reward Nvidia.

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I do think that if you're looking at,
look, here's the thing, $700 billion this

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year alone is being projected for Google.

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announced at least for Google, Amazon,
Meta, etc.

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A lot of that money is going to go
directly into NVIDIA's pockets.

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I think that is something to be looked at.

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It is going to be a very good year for
NVIDIA, however you look at it.

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But even recently, we had AMD as well come
out with an announcement that they would

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meta about meta taking on their chips.

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There is money around the whole ecosphere,
but I think NVIDIA is still the front

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runner.

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I think because of the speed at which this
stuff is going at, it's going to be very

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difficult for somebody to catch up and
beat them at the moment.

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David, you find yourself in the camp of,
yes, they were great numbers, but no, it's

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not good enough for me to hold on.

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So you trimmed your positions or did you
look, as Viv did, in awe of these

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numerals?

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The whole year we've heard the same story,
you know, and yet it just keeps creeping

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up, ratcheting and so on.

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So I'm not put off by it.

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You know, the market's a bit crazy at the
moment.

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You don't know what they want.

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I don't know whether Viv saw it or whether
you saw this, but...

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Over the weekend, there was this report
that went viral from Citrini, I think.

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Yes, that's right.

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Research.

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I mean, it was one of these, you know,
reporting on 20,

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I think called 2028 global intelligence
crisis or something around that.

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And really saying, look, if this is really
successful, what's going to happen?

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You're going to get this dystopia, you
know, where markets going to crash because

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people are going to be.

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So many jobs will be lost and create
unemployment, take down consumers and so

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on.

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I mean, just looking into so many years
ahead,

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how many people did we have to read at the
end of last year or during last year about

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the AI bubble?

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And it's going to crash and so on.

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So you get these views.

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And what was interesting, though, the
market got very scared.

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And I know the Dow came crashing down on
Monday and all other markets.

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And so we're in that mood.

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You know, I can't explain it.

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I just look through it and I just focus on
what NVIDIA is doing, what kind of chips

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they're making, who they're selling to,

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and how the market reacts, the emotion of
the market.

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You've just got to brush aside.

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I don't think you should also ignore the
fact that the market had been pushing up

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NVIDIA ahead

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of its results.

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I mean, it closed at 195, I think, the
night just before.

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its results in the early hours of the
morning, in the aftermarket or the

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beforemarket, whichever it is,

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they pushed it up very close to 200.

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So to come down a little bit, I mean,
okay, three and a half percent is a chunky

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number, but to bring it down,

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it's just giving up what it had gained.

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So I think it's another factor, and David,
you would have seen this throughout your

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career, of a market being priced for
perfection.

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So the line of least resistance for any
stock in that sort of position the nvidia

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position is to the downside.

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Not to say that there's anything wrong
with the stock.

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It's just that people have become too
exuberant.

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Would you say that was a fair resume of
what's happened?

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I don't even know.

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I don't know who is exuberant.

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I don't know who the people are.

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You know, most analysts that we talk to or
speak to, you know, they sit admittedly,

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they go through the company and they're
very bullish on it.

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And perhaps you'll find that they'll come
out now and be biased.

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But you're dealing...

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You know, Lindsay, we're not dealing in
the same world that I entered 50 odd years

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ago.

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Today, it's run by algorithms.

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It's run by traders.

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It's run, you know, and there's huge
amounts of money behind those trades.

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And they play games.

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You know, they're the ones who kind of
influence the market, but with talk, it's

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almost like propaganda.

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And you've got to see your way through
that.

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But I've got no control.

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You know, we've got no control.

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They're a natural buyer.

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Those who are buying it for the longer
term or trying to put it in a portfolio of

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growth stocks, we don't rule the markets.

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This is ruled minute by minute, day by day
by hedge fund traders, you know, who

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really look,

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what's the trend going to be tomorrow?

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What's, you know, what story, what story
can we pick up?

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So, and to a large extent, it's fed by the
media as well.

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So, I'm not freaked out by this.

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We're still, even if you've held NVIDIA
through all this trouble, All this talk

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about the end of AI.

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You still made 40% or 45% this year over a
12-month period.

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Okay, I can live with 45% increase.

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Especially when the 10-year bond is, what,
4%?

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Okay.

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Exactly.

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And if you'd been a clever hedge fund
trader and got rid of some of the

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old-school tech stocks like Microsoft or
IBM,

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both of which are in bear markets, and
bought the AI stocks, then you're, you

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know.

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You're in Clover.

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Viv, I want to talk about something
completely different.

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And you can tell me, Lindsay, I didn't
have a look at them yesterday.

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So don't ask me about the results from
Valterra, because I spoke to somebody

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yesterday who had and he said this is a
money printing

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machine at the moment.

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It's fantastic news.

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Did you happen to look at a good old
fashioned South African PGM producer

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yesterday, Viv?

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Yeah, look, I mean, we had a, I mean, one
of the guys in the office had put on a

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pick for the stock about a week ago,

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and he was kind of celebrating yesterday,
kind of, you know, saying how bullish it'd

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be.

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But look, yeah, the fact of the matter is
we are seeing platinum prices come back,

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you know, quite dramatically.

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I mean, platinum is up, you know, doubling
in price, palladium up 80% almost.

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And I do think that, you know, a lot of
this is driven by the gold.

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movement.

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I mean, in the future, I think the other
issues around platinum in the automobile

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sector being replaced, you know, with
electric vehicles.

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But I do think at the moment, you know,
would be the demand for gold as strong as

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it is.

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But the fact that I mean, platinum is,
people don't realize that platinum is a

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much smaller amount of supply than gold.

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So if gold becomes significantly more
valuable, if you just have to look at the

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amount of gold being used for jewelry,
etc.

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And people start switching a part of that
demand for gold, jewelry, platinum

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jewelry, because it's cheaper.

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in vertical commerce.

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And I think that in that scenario alone,

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it's a large enough demand to replace a
lot of the capital legal vertical demand

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that's out there for platinum.

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So yeah, the results were great.

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And to be expected, I mean, we had the
commodity prices rise as much as they did.

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And as I said to that person, I hope that
South Africa takes full advantage of this,

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and I hope the companies don't go berserk
and try and buy.

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obscure mines in Finland or Canada or
somewhere like that with the money that

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they got.

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But they didn't.

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They paid a special dividend.

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They paid a very good ordinary dividend as
well.

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And long may it continue.

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Speaking of South Africa, David, I know
you've been on the Upper West Side this

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morning, having a bagel, having a coffee,
reading the paper.

236
00:11:45.689 --> 00:11:47.689
So you won't have seen truest results.

237
00:11:47.689 --> 00:11:49.689
But the market seems to like them.

238
00:11:49.689 --> 00:11:51.689
I think they closed up about four and a
third percent.

239
00:11:51.689 --> 00:11:53.689
And I'm happy.

240
00:11:53.689 --> 00:11:57.397
uh for truess and the retail sector and
south africa and everything but i'm more

241
00:11:57.397 --> 00:11:59.397
happy for myself because it might claw me
out

242
00:11:59.397 --> 00:12:04.021
of the bottom quartile of your crystal
challenge because i put it in my in my in

243
00:12:04.021 --> 00:12:06.021
my picks i think you did as well

244
00:12:06.021 --> 00:12:11.105
i am i like well i i took clothing
retailers i thought there had to be some

245
00:12:11.105 --> 00:12:13.105
kind of margin i

246
00:12:13.105 --> 00:12:18.089
mean some kind of comeback from these
companies um i don't know whether i'm

247
00:12:18.089 --> 00:12:20.089
going to be right or wrong um

248
00:12:20.089 --> 00:12:24.073
In fact, to be honest, if you look at spa
and you look at pick and pay and you look

249
00:12:24.073 --> 00:12:24.233
at some of the

250
00:12:24.233 --> 00:12:28.257
grocery retailers, that's where I, you
know, that's always the safe haven.

251
00:12:28.637 --> 00:12:35.162
But having looked at spa and pick and pay,
you know, maybe it is the time for some of

252
00:12:35.162 --> 00:12:37.162
the clothing retailers to come back.

253
00:12:37.162 --> 00:12:39.046
But I quickly looked at, you know, the
numbers.

254
00:12:39.086 --> 00:12:39.786
I always look.

255
00:12:39.926 --> 00:12:45.851
I just looked at the headlines and I saw
that the earnings were up or headline

256
00:12:45.851 --> 00:12:47.851
earnings around about 1%.

257
00:12:47.851 --> 00:12:47.933
So I'm not quite sure.

258
00:12:48.333 --> 00:12:51.355
whether this is far greater than the
market was expecting.

259
00:12:51.855 --> 00:12:55.677
But, I mean, it does give you an idea of
what a tough time these companies are

260
00:12:55.677 --> 00:12:55.697
going through.

261
00:12:56.317 --> 00:12:59.759
So I think one has to go through this in
great detail.

262
00:13:00.580 --> 00:13:04.962
And maybe if the growth did come, maybe it
came from their offshore businesses.

263
00:13:05.382 --> 00:13:06.082
I'm not sure.

264
00:13:06.082 --> 00:13:09.525
I've got to go through this in a little
more detail.

265
00:13:09.545 --> 00:13:12.786
It did come out quite late, I think, just
as the market was closing.

266
00:13:12.806 --> 00:13:16.528
You know, there's one thing I wanted to
say on Veltira.

267
00:13:16.749 --> 00:13:22.232
I mean the results were spectacular and
absolutely incredible but if you want to

268
00:13:22.292 --> 00:13:24.514
understand the platinum markets or these

269
00:13:24.554 --> 00:13:31.539
markets we're far from an all-time high oh
yeah there's way there's way to go yeah

270
00:13:31.540 --> 00:13:38.424
if you go back 22 mom was a lot higher you
know all the way back to 21 and so on so i

271
00:13:38.424 --> 00:13:38.724
mean we

272
00:13:38.724 --> 00:13:44.549
had some very bleak years between 22 all
the way to claw your way back in and i

273
00:13:44.549 --> 00:13:44.588
always say

274
00:13:45.013 --> 00:13:51.675
An old saying that I picked up on the
exchange, you know, you buy in these kind

275
00:13:51.675 --> 00:13:53.675
of booms and you have to wait for the next
boom to get your money back.

276
00:13:53.675 --> 00:13:55.675
And I mean, it's typical.

277
00:13:55.675 --> 00:13:55.896
It's something we used to say about the
mining markets.

278
00:13:56.456 --> 00:14:02.978
And it's typical in this situation where
you have this credible boom in 21, 22 and,

279
00:14:03.238 --> 00:14:07.039
you know, where platinum prices went up
through the roof and we're back where we

280
00:14:07.039 --> 00:14:07.440
are.

281
00:14:07.440 --> 00:14:11.400
In fact, I don't even think the platinum
price reached where it is now, but or more

282
00:14:11.400 --> 00:14:11.580
or less.

283
00:14:11.781 --> 00:14:13.221
But, you know, this is this is the.

284
00:14:13.661 --> 00:14:20.584
nature of those markets is that you've
always got to be careful these prices

285
00:14:20.584 --> 00:14:22.584
don't always hold unless there is

286
00:14:22.584 --> 00:14:27.587
genuinely uh demand you know a huge demand
for the underlying metal and i'm not sure

287
00:14:27.587 --> 00:14:29.587
that's coming back in

288
00:14:29.587 --> 00:14:34.730
order catalyst or anything like this
that's why that's why i speculation yeah

289
00:14:34.730 --> 00:14:36.730
that's why i say david they have to take
advantage of it and not not

290
00:14:36.730 --> 00:14:40.533
get silly about it because it's so
cyclical and it's very fleeting as well i

291
00:14:40.533 --> 00:14:42.533
mean it can be a couple of years but than
just at the top.

292
00:14:42.533 --> 00:14:45.320
People start to get really frothy about
it, and that's when the trouble starts.

293
00:14:47.162 --> 00:14:48.583
Sorry, Viv, I'll come to you in a second.

294
00:14:49.003 --> 00:14:50.384
I've got to do some reminiscing here.

295
00:14:50.385 --> 00:14:56.309
I always think when I see results like
that, and I look at the PGMs doing what

296
00:14:56.309 --> 00:14:58.309
they're doing at the moment, David,

297
00:14:58.309 --> 00:15:02.794
I always think of Wayne McCurry because he
sort of retired just before the really big

298
00:15:02.794 --> 00:15:02.993
boom,

299
00:15:02.993 --> 00:15:07.077
and he was always, every time I spoke to
him every Wednesday, he would talk

300
00:15:07.077 --> 00:15:07.176
about...

301
00:15:07.878 --> 00:15:11.342
the platinum stocks and really sort of
champing at the bit waiting for this.

302
00:15:11.662 --> 00:15:15.527
I'm sure he might have a small interest
himself, but yeah.

303
00:15:17.707 --> 00:15:18.467
Who was I going to talk to?

304
00:15:18.468 --> 00:15:24.030
Oh, yes, David, very quickly, Salesforce,
please, because their numbers came out,

305
00:15:24.030 --> 00:15:24.311
didn't they?

306
00:15:24.311 --> 00:15:24.731
I know this.

307
00:15:24.911 --> 00:15:31.715
Their concern is that this is taking a
little longer than everybody thought for

308
00:15:31.715 --> 00:15:33.715
businesses,

309
00:15:33.715 --> 00:15:36.477
enterprises to adopt AI and for them to
get their business ready to do this.

310
00:15:36.557 --> 00:15:42.721
It's another one that I've got to go
through in detail because I see this

311
00:15:42.721 --> 00:15:44.721
morning competitors like ServiceNow

312
00:15:44.721 --> 00:15:46.963
and others in that area are actually up
this morning quite.

313
00:15:47.764 --> 00:15:49.625
quite nicely, but not Salesforce.

314
00:15:49.626 --> 00:15:56.391
So, you know, in that area, Snowflake,
ServiceNow, Constellation Software,

315
00:15:57.552 --> 00:16:01.495
all of those are doing better this
morning, up three for 4% and so on.

316
00:16:01.555 --> 00:16:06.740
So, you know, in that, but in fact,
Salesforce is up 3% this morning.

317
00:16:07.320 --> 00:16:08.201
I didn't know it.

318
00:16:08.541 --> 00:16:09.241
Can you believe it?

319
00:16:09.241 --> 00:16:09.863
So there you are.

320
00:16:11.064 --> 00:16:14.627
There are videos down 3%, which should be
up 3%.

321
00:16:15.259 --> 00:16:17.681
And Salesforce, which will be down 3%, is
up 3%.

322
00:16:18.701 --> 00:16:19.802
So you explain that.

323
00:16:19.803 --> 00:16:20.523
I'm going to ask Viv.

324
00:16:20.663 --> 00:16:22.464
That's for Viv to explain to us, you see.

325
00:16:22.784 --> 00:16:24.605
Yeah, Viv, there's your invitation.

326
00:16:24.606 --> 00:16:26.407
He's a mathematician, the scientist.

327
00:16:28.728 --> 00:16:32.731
Yeah, well, Viv, you've got to explain
that, please.

328
00:16:32.732 --> 00:16:36.033
I saw this great interview with Jensen
Wong, and he said,

329
00:16:36.473 --> 00:16:40.196
imagine if you hired a genius to come to
your office, right?

330
00:16:40.756 --> 00:16:47.481
And he was also basically really skilled
at a bunch of different programming

331
00:16:47.481 --> 00:16:49.481
languages, a bunch of different software
tools,

332
00:16:49.481 --> 00:16:49.543
you'd think you'd spend less or more on
software.

333
00:16:51.825 --> 00:16:52.845
The answer is you'd spend more.

334
00:16:53.346 --> 00:16:57.930
If you had a master carpenter come into
your workplace,

335
00:16:58.750 --> 00:17:03.134
do you think you'd spend more or less on
woodworking tools?

336
00:17:03.334 --> 00:17:04.034
You'd spend more.

337
00:17:04.295 --> 00:17:11.180
And he says, if AI comes agentic, like
we're talking about, you won't expect them

338
00:17:11.180 --> 00:17:13.180
to go out and basically remake every
single tool out there,

339
00:17:13.180 --> 00:17:14.023
because it'll cost you too much, or it'll
be not as good as the...

340
00:17:14.443 --> 00:17:21.345
the bespoke or the stuff already made out
by the public large corporations but

341
00:17:21.345 --> 00:17:23.345
rather ai would be very very good at

342
00:17:23.345 --> 00:17:28.407
using these tools and in that scenario why
wouldn't you basically buy all the tools

343
00:17:28.407 --> 00:17:30.407
possible if you

344
00:17:30.407 --> 00:17:34.969
have an ai system that you basically have
on your local computer that is capable of

345
00:17:34.969 --> 00:17:36.969
using any software out there uh

346
00:17:36.969 --> 00:17:40.350
to a level of expert level wouldn't you
buy a lot more software you know what i

347
00:17:40.350 --> 00:17:42.350
mean and

348
00:17:42.350 --> 00:17:45.893
that made me think that yeah there is
probably a lot of opportunity even for

349
00:17:45.893 --> 00:17:47.893
these companies like you know salesforce
and all

350
00:17:47.893 --> 00:17:49.675
the other guys out there maybe they don't
have you know some of the

351
00:17:49.915 --> 00:17:56.619
like the cutting edge stuff out there but
if they are tools and they are tools

352
00:17:56.619 --> 00:17:58.619
because humans use them to basically make
themselves more productive

353
00:17:58.619 --> 00:18:04.043
if an air comes along and doesn't go to
the entire trouble of writing the whole

354
00:18:04.043 --> 00:18:06.043
tool set from scratch up again which is
like unlikely to

355
00:18:06.043 --> 00:18:09.986
happen that is going to be a great deal
more in demand because the ai is going to

356
00:18:09.986 --> 00:18:11.986
be much much

357
00:18:11.986 --> 00:18:13.124
better at using the tools even if you
can't write the whole thing from scratch.

358
00:18:13.604 --> 00:18:17.927
And that means that more people are going
to find uses for these big software

359
00:18:17.927 --> 00:18:19.927
packages out there.

360
00:18:19.927 --> 00:18:21.449
And so I do think that's a thing that the
market may be overlooking at the moment.

361
00:18:22.729 --> 00:18:23.630
Very good point indeed.

362
00:18:23.890 --> 00:18:28.252
Make another very good point with your
analytical brain very briefly about

363
00:18:28.252 --> 00:18:30.252
yesterday's budget.

364
00:18:30.252 --> 00:18:34.156
I switch off from the budget now because
South African budgets have either been

365
00:18:34.156 --> 00:18:36.156
depressing or boring or both in the past.

366
00:18:36.156 --> 00:18:36.637
But this one, a little bit more upbeat,
Viv.

367
00:18:38.478 --> 00:18:39.419
Yeah, brilliant budget.

368
00:18:40.103 --> 00:18:46.465
uh compared to what we had the last couple
times uh a couple interesting things i

369
00:18:46.465 --> 00:18:48.465
mean the jump up we saw in the tax free
savings amount i mean from

370
00:18:48.465 --> 00:18:52.406
36 to 46 firstly i mean we have debit
orders you know that's a horrible number

371
00:18:52.406 --> 00:18:54.406
to divide by 12.

372
00:18:54.406 --> 00:18:58.528
you know what i mean and the second thing
is that

373
00:18:59.668 --> 00:19:06.610
uh well with regards to uh the brackets
slightly improved but i mean we still

374
00:19:06.610 --> 00:19:08.610
haven't taken up the full impact of what
we

375
00:19:08.610 --> 00:19:13.213
have in the past uh An interesting move
with regards to the VAT number,

376
00:19:13.814 --> 00:19:15.554
which is quite a big jump up there.

377
00:19:16.755 --> 00:19:21.918
I do think that overall, it is a little
haphazard what was improved,

378
00:19:21.919 --> 00:19:24.399
but it was basically across the board
improvements.

379
00:19:24.820 --> 00:19:27.981
And the only thing I have is this, I don't
know how sustainable it is.

380
00:19:28.361 --> 00:19:34.025
Firstly, the two things they put forward
as what caused this to be improved was

381
00:19:34.025 --> 00:19:36.025
number one, better SARS collection.

382
00:19:36.025 --> 00:19:41.368
But there's only so much you can, if you
have like 100 million that you old and you

383
00:19:41.368 --> 00:19:43.368
get like 98 million, you're looking up to
100 million.

384
00:19:43.368 --> 00:19:43.569
You can't go beyond 100 million unless the
economy grows.

385
00:19:43.729 --> 00:19:47.270
So there's a limit to how much SARS can
improve to raise revenue.

386
00:19:47.650 --> 00:19:50.471
The second thing is, of course, the
commodity boom helping us out as well.

387
00:19:50.751 --> 00:19:51.771
And again, that's temporary.

388
00:19:52.271 --> 00:19:56.292
So until we see the underlying economy
improve dramatically, I'm a bit worried

389
00:19:56.292 --> 00:19:56.472
about it.

390
00:19:56.713 --> 00:19:59.674
But this budget was, I think, reasonably
good,

391
00:20:02.054 --> 00:20:04.295
even in terms of what actually improved by
as much as they did.

392
00:20:05.336 --> 00:20:06.036
Very good.

393
00:20:06.036 --> 00:20:10.218
Before I get to the numbers, David, just a
quick one on Discovery, please.

394
00:20:10.258 --> 00:20:11.899
Share price up 8.5% today.

395
00:20:12.459 --> 00:20:13.380
What are they doing right?

396
00:20:13.400 --> 00:20:15.460
Did you have a chance to glance at the
headline of that one?

397
00:20:15.461 --> 00:20:18.062
Well, the headlines are in the UK.

398
00:20:19.842 --> 00:20:24.144
They seem to be making a lot of headway in
the UK, and that's growing.

399
00:20:24.584 --> 00:20:27.506
And the other one was the bank, a
turnaround in the bank.

400
00:20:27.986 --> 00:20:30.207
I like to go through those numbers in
great detail.

401
00:20:30.267 --> 00:20:32.328
Again, I haven't had a chance to do that.

402
00:20:32.704 --> 00:20:35.126
Simply because of the seven-hour
difference that we have.

403
00:20:35.487 --> 00:20:36.768
But I always like to do that.

404
00:20:37.048 --> 00:20:40.711
I like to do it with process and NASPERS.

405
00:20:41.252 --> 00:20:48.018
And this is another one where you actually
break down the visions and you see what's

406
00:20:48.018 --> 00:20:50.018
actually contributing to the bottom

407
00:20:50.018 --> 00:20:52.018
line.

408
00:20:52.018 --> 00:20:52.642
So one's got to understand that.

409
00:20:52.702 --> 00:20:53.784
But the market likes it.

410
00:20:53.803 --> 00:20:55.865
I mean, the share price has done
incredibly well.

411
00:20:56.366 --> 00:20:57.387
There is progress.

412
00:20:57.527 --> 00:20:58.608
I can't deny that.

413
00:20:59.180 --> 00:21:03.043
But, you know, what kind of progress is,
that's what we've got to analyze.

414
00:21:03.082 --> 00:21:06.404
But I see the market up around about 8%.

415
00:21:07.204 --> 00:21:10.666
Lindsay, we're in a situation where I
think the market wants

416
00:21:11.345 --> 00:21:14.407
I looked at Nedbank as well up this
morning at 8%.

417
00:21:15.168 --> 00:21:18.629
And I looked at their trading update,
which was awful.

418
00:21:19.569 --> 00:21:23.791
And the reason was that there was clarity
on the sale of this bank in West Africa.

419
00:21:24.311 --> 00:21:27.533
You know, I don't know what was opaque
before.

420
00:21:27.553 --> 00:21:28.253
I don't know what the...

421
00:21:28.512 --> 00:21:30.274
worries were ahead of it.

422
00:21:30.314 --> 00:21:33.376
But anyway, some uncertainties have been
removed.

423
00:21:33.938 --> 00:21:37.660
And I mean, they made a huge loss on the
actual sale.

424
00:21:37.720 --> 00:21:39.281
But, you know, we always hide those.

425
00:21:39.301 --> 00:21:41.563
We don't show those in headline numbers.

426
00:21:41.583 --> 00:21:42.664
It's always in the earnings.

427
00:21:43.225 --> 00:21:45.688
And yet the share price was up around
about 8%.

428
00:21:45.767 --> 00:21:50.191
So I think the market's looking for, you
know, reasons to come in.

429
00:21:50.631 --> 00:21:53.434
I tell you where I was disappointed
yesterday.

430
00:21:54.194 --> 00:21:55.455
And I looked at that budget.

431
00:21:55.495 --> 00:21:56.196
There was a lot.

432
00:21:56.809 --> 00:22:01.871
that I liked, and I'm hoping that they can
actually reduce the amount that they have

433
00:22:01.871 --> 00:22:03.871
to raise, you know,

434
00:22:03.871 --> 00:22:05.974
to finance the whole economy and the
normal stories.

435
00:22:06.293 --> 00:22:07.874
But the market didn't respond well.

436
00:22:08.795 --> 00:22:10.377
The bond market did, though.

437
00:22:10.736 --> 00:22:11.657
The bond market did.

438
00:22:12.016 --> 00:22:15.678
Yeah, but the equity, I thought there'd be
more on the equity market.

439
00:22:15.679 --> 00:22:19.901
In fact, there were more losers on the
market yesterday than there were winners.

440
00:22:20.621 --> 00:22:25.604
And I thought, hold on, that's what, you
know, what's it telling us is that, okay.

441
00:22:26.053 --> 00:22:30.616
You know, down at the bottom, this is all
very well at that level, but down at the

442
00:22:30.616 --> 00:22:32.616
bottom, things are not that great.

443
00:22:32.616 --> 00:22:32.637
There's still a lot of work to be done.

444
00:22:33.417 --> 00:22:39.120
There's a bit of an improvement today, but
I still think there are things, there are

445
00:22:39.120 --> 00:22:41.120
issues that are worrying.

446
00:22:41.120 --> 00:22:44.043
And I'm coming back to where we are,
Lindsay, you know, in the clothing

447
00:22:44.043 --> 00:22:46.043
retailers and those areas.

448
00:22:46.043 --> 00:22:46.865
And there's still concerns it's not going
to work.

449
00:22:47.206 --> 00:22:52.849
You know, that it's not as easy as perhaps
we thought it would be.

450
00:22:53.740 --> 00:22:55.522
Yeah, I had that same conversation
yesterday.

451
00:22:56.001 --> 00:22:59.082
The person I was speaking to, actually,
you know him, Skulk Lowe.

452
00:23:00.082 --> 00:23:05.664
He was jumping through hoops because of
the resources index, which is up about 5%.

453
00:23:05.664 --> 00:23:07.664
And I said, well,

454
00:23:07.664 --> 00:23:09.167
how did the domestic stocks perform given
the good budget?

455
00:23:09.168 --> 00:23:10.226
He said they did nothing.

456
00:23:10.546 --> 00:23:11.668
If anything, they were down.

457
00:23:11.707 --> 00:23:14.208
And he was also a little bit puzzled by
that.

458
00:23:14.629 --> 00:23:15.329
Anyway.

459
00:23:15.732 --> 00:23:22.635
The dollar round is 15.97, which is, yeah,
it's not significantly worse off, but it's

460
00:23:22.635 --> 00:23:22.736
worse off.

461
00:23:22.736 --> 00:23:24.697
The dollar has gained 0.7 against the
round.

462
00:23:25.076 --> 00:23:27.178
British pound against the round, 21.59.

463
00:23:27.277 --> 00:23:33.539
And the euro round, 18.84, with the euro
dollar around about 1.1810.

464
00:23:33.541 --> 00:23:36.802
The gold price is 51.55.

465
00:23:36.803 --> 00:23:43.063
That's quite a fall from this time
yesterday, but on the last 24 hours, only

466
00:23:43.063 --> 00:23:45.063
down $15 or 0.3%.

467
00:23:45.063 --> 00:23:47.063
Platinum price is getting hit.

468
00:23:47.063 --> 00:23:48.728
to the tune of 4.5% to 2,227.

469
00:23:48.789 --> 00:23:51.091
Palladium down 2.9%.

470
00:23:51.091 --> 00:23:55.935
Palladium was a stonking goodbye
yesterday, up around about 10%, I think,

471
00:23:55.935 --> 00:23:57.935
at one stage.

472
00:23:57.935 --> 00:24:00.218
But anyway, today down 3%, nearly at
17.82.

473
00:24:00.999 --> 00:24:05.743
If we go now to oil, which will be in
sharp focus in the next week or so,

474
00:24:06.684 --> 00:24:11.829
just before Trump presses the button, as
soon as the Gerald Ford is in position.

475
00:24:12.172 --> 00:24:18.938
I think it's almost arrived in the Gulf
and it'll be alongside the Abraham Lincoln

476
00:24:19.237 --> 00:24:20.498
and then the fun will start.

477
00:24:21.739 --> 00:24:27.623
So Brent crude oil is up 0.6% today,
$71.25 per barrel.

478
00:24:27.624 --> 00:24:31.566
$65.51 is the West Texas crude price, up
very slightly.

479
00:24:32.767 --> 00:24:38.072
Copper, $5.94, which is down 0.8%.

480
00:24:38.091 --> 00:24:39.733
Well, $6.04 earlier on.

481
00:24:39.952 --> 00:24:45.296
So there's been a bit of a turnaround in
the metals in the last three or four hours

482
00:24:45.296 --> 00:24:45.355
or so.

483
00:24:45.816 --> 00:24:48.918
South African 10-year bond, 7.88.

484
00:24:48.919 --> 00:24:51.180
It was 7.80 on the close yesterday.

485
00:24:51.260 --> 00:24:54.262
So it's 8.5 points up or 1%.

486
00:24:54.342 --> 00:24:55.142
That's the yield.

487
00:24:55.583 --> 00:24:56.284
U.S.

488
00:24:56.284 --> 00:24:59.906
10-year, gosh, it's looking to break down
through four.

489
00:24:59.946 --> 00:25:03.508
I was certain this was going to be a loser
this year, the bond market.

490
00:25:03.748 --> 00:25:04.709
And indeed, I was right.

491
00:25:04.710 --> 00:25:08.672
It went from 4 to 4.30 and now back to 4
again.

492
00:25:08.972 --> 00:25:10.233
So something's going on there.

493
00:25:10.613 --> 00:25:12.675
I thought people would be dumping US
Treasuries.

494
00:25:12.755 --> 00:25:13.456
Not so.

495
00:25:13.456 --> 00:25:16.538
S&P 500 futures down three quarters of a
percent.

496
00:25:16.738 --> 00:25:19.120
Has there been some numbers out this
afternoon, David?

497
00:25:20.670 --> 00:25:21.571
Not that I know of.

498
00:25:21.751 --> 00:25:23.032
The dollar is firmer.

499
00:25:23.152 --> 00:25:23.972
The dollar is firmer.

500
00:25:24.933 --> 00:25:29.415
I can see that the Rands at like 1594
having been down in 1580s and that.

501
00:25:30.776 --> 00:25:33.057
But nothing making headlines.

502
00:25:33.557 --> 00:25:35.518
OK, maybe it's just the tech.

503
00:25:35.618 --> 00:25:39.981
Maybe it's the Nvidia thing and it's
spilling over into other markets as

504
00:25:39.981 --> 00:25:41.981
they're also linked these days.

505
00:25:41.981 --> 00:25:44.423
6903 now, the S&P 500 down 0.8 percent.

506
00:25:44.964 --> 00:25:46.404
And finally, Bitcoin.

507
00:25:46.985 --> 00:25:47.865
Yeah, it didn't last.

508
00:25:47.866 --> 00:25:49.386
It doesn't like 68,000.

509
00:25:49.666 --> 00:25:54.869
in a range of sort of 62 to 68 at the
moment, 67,000 and a bit right now.

510
00:25:55.189 --> 00:25:58.951
If you look at the JSC, we're going to
look at the ups and downs.

511
00:25:58.991 --> 00:26:01.313
We've mentioned Truos. I'm sure they're
there.

512
00:26:01.373 --> 00:26:02.713
Sorry, I'm just changing my screen.

513
00:26:03.334 --> 00:26:09.857
And we have on the upside, NEDCOR
mentioned by David Shapiro up just over

514
00:26:09.857 --> 00:26:11.857
8%.

515
00:26:11.857 --> 00:26:13.857
Discovery up seven and two thirds.

516
00:26:13.857 --> 00:26:15.857
Alphamin up 5%.

517
00:26:15.857 --> 00:26:17.857
HCI up nearly 5%.

518
00:26:17.857 --> 00:26:18.042
Motus, their numbers came out earlier
yesterday, I think it was.

519
00:26:18.442 --> 00:26:20.163
4.75% higher.

520
00:26:20.183 --> 00:26:23.845
On the downside, Sassl, a big tumble,

521
00:26:23.905 --> 00:26:27.947
despite the fact that the Rand is weaker
and the oil price is higher.

522
00:26:28.147 --> 00:26:29.288
So work that one out.

523
00:26:29.388 --> 00:26:31.429
Sassl down 8.5%.

524
00:26:31.549 --> 00:26:33.430
Tiger Brands down 6.2%.

525
00:26:34.491 --> 00:26:35.651
DRD Gold down 5%.

526
00:26:36.032 --> 00:26:38.173
And Carew down nearly 4%.

527
00:26:38.513 --> 00:26:43.015
To end this, David, I want you to tell us
about the State of the Uni.

528
00:26:43.175 --> 00:26:44.096
Were you there?

529
00:26:44.436 --> 00:26:45.417
Did you watch it?

530
00:26:45.477 --> 00:26:47.958
What was the reaction on the streets of
New York?

531
00:26:50.151 --> 00:26:51.171
You have no idea.

532
00:26:51.451 --> 00:26:55.254
I mean, to be honest, this is a nation
that is so divided.

533
00:26:56.434 --> 00:27:03.218
You've got, you know, it's almost as
though you're stuck in the middle of the

534
00:27:03.218 --> 00:27:05.218
road and on the left hand side, you've got
these Republicans calling for, or sorry,

535
00:27:05.218 --> 00:27:09.461
let's call it the Democrats on the right
hand side, the Republicans. And you're in

536
00:27:09.461 --> 00:27:11.461
the middle saying, which side do I go to?

537
00:27:11.461 --> 00:27:15.304
Because I think they hate it by, but the
middle hates both sides and not quite sure

538
00:27:15.304 --> 00:27:15.324
where to go.

539
00:27:15.825 --> 00:27:18.246
It is such an extreme nation, the hate.

540
00:27:18.506 --> 00:27:20.828
and the insults at each other.

541
00:27:21.028 --> 00:27:25.672
And Trump, I decided to try and listen to
it, and I started at 9 o'clock here.

542
00:27:25.832 --> 00:27:27.974
By 10 past 9, I was exhausted.

543
00:27:29.035 --> 00:27:29.735
And it went on.

544
00:27:29.996 --> 00:27:31.277
It went on for two hours.

545
00:27:31.297 --> 00:27:33.279
Hour and 47 minutes, longest ever.

546
00:27:34.280 --> 00:27:37.202
Bumbling and just talking and insulting.

547
00:27:37.642 --> 00:27:41.766
And I mean, I don't know where the
president gets these numbers from.

548
00:27:41.767 --> 00:27:43.347
He makes them up on the trot.

549
00:27:43.367 --> 00:27:44.067
Yes, he does.

550
00:27:44.067 --> 00:27:44.769
Because nothing is true.

551
00:27:44.849 --> 00:27:46.270
And that's all that's been happening.

552
00:27:46.550 --> 00:27:51.071
The last couple of days, people breaking
down these numbers, you know, which were

553
00:27:51.071 --> 00:27:53.071
complete fabrications.

554
00:27:53.071 --> 00:27:53.792
And, you know, claiming, you know,

555
00:27:53.812 --> 00:27:58.993
what he claims for the success on the
market is all he's doing and so on.

556
00:27:59.774 --> 00:28:02.514
But anyway, this is the nation.

557
00:28:03.155 --> 00:28:09.176
It's not the kind of nation that you
thought, you know, that those pictures

558
00:28:09.176 --> 00:28:11.176
that you used to see in the 50s and 60s
and 70s.

559
00:28:11.176 --> 00:28:13.057
It's just a country totally divided.

560
00:28:14.338 --> 00:28:15.418
And Democrats...

561
00:28:16.050 --> 00:28:20.252
Many never turned up, Lindsay, and a lot
walked out.

562
00:28:20.692 --> 00:28:26.454
And when they asked, did you hear that
there was a huge outcry when he asked

563
00:28:26.454 --> 00:28:28.454
everybody to stand up, you know, and
applaud

564
00:28:28.454 --> 00:28:29.536
Medal of Honor and so on and so on and
whatever.

565
00:28:30.156 --> 00:28:32.217
And the Democrats never stood up.

566
00:28:32.817 --> 00:28:35.798
So there was huge issues against that as
well.

567
00:28:36.779 --> 00:28:38.199
I've been watching it with fascination.

568
00:28:38.259 --> 00:28:40.240
Viv, you're an analytical person.

569
00:28:41.200 --> 00:28:44.542
You listen to David and I indulgently
talking about...

570
00:28:45.102 --> 00:28:52.024
the personal defects of the president
because it doesn't matter does it clearly

571
00:28:52.024 --> 00:28:54.024
no it does to some extent because he's
such

572
00:28:54.024 --> 00:28:59.066
a volatile figure i mean uh you know you
could have a clinton or you could have

573
00:28:59.066 --> 00:29:01.066
whatever in office at the moment and you'd
have a much clearer idea as to

574
00:29:01.066 --> 00:29:05.528
what's happening with iran but literally
it's not breaks tomorrow and iran could be

575
00:29:05.528 --> 00:29:07.528
a country or not a country because of

576
00:29:07.528 --> 00:29:10.289
what he thinks of in the morning you know
what i mean uh there's a great uh john

577
00:29:10.289 --> 00:29:10.409
oliver

578
00:29:10.429 --> 00:29:16.591
thing where he basically goes through and
talks about how things that can appear on

579
00:29:16.591 --> 00:29:18.591
twitter often from accounts that are very
dubious,

580
00:29:18.591 --> 00:29:23.314
can suddenly translate into real impacts
on the world because it gets picked up by

581
00:29:23.314 --> 00:29:25.314
Elon Musk, it goes off to Trump,

582
00:29:25.314 --> 00:29:25.795
and Trump suddenly is moving policy in
weird ways.

583
00:29:26.695 --> 00:29:28.796
So, I mean, this is the world we're living
in.

584
00:29:28.797 --> 00:29:31.997
But what gets me is that how stupid were
the Democrats?

585
00:29:32.578 --> 00:29:36.179
I mean, by sitting down, not for Trump,
but for the Medal of Honor people,

586
00:29:36.679 --> 00:29:42.522
it was just dumb because he chose people
that anyone would say, these are American

587
00:29:42.522 --> 00:29:44.522
heroes, you stand up for them.

588
00:29:44.522 --> 00:29:46.522
You know what I mean?

589
00:29:46.522 --> 00:29:48.522
And by not doing it, it was just dumb.

590
00:29:48.522 --> 00:29:49.965
It was a difficult one because of the
association with Trump, because Trump

591
00:29:49.965 --> 00:29:51.965
introduced the theme.

592
00:29:51.965 --> 00:29:53.965
You see, that's the point.

593
00:29:53.965 --> 00:29:57.008
I understand why they didn't stand up, but
they should have bitten their tongues and

594
00:29:57.008 --> 00:29:59.008
stood up for America.

595
00:29:59.008 --> 00:30:01.008
So, yes, you're quite right.

596
00:30:01.008 --> 00:30:03.008
They did make a mistake.

597
00:30:03.008 --> 00:30:05.008
Gentlemen, got a dash.

598
00:30:05.008 --> 00:30:07.008
Thank you very much for your time this
evening.

599
00:30:07.008 --> 00:30:09.008
David Shapiro is from SAS for Insecurities
in Manhattan.

600
00:30:09.008 --> 00:30:09.733
David, sorry, Viv Govender is from
Ransuisse in Johannesburg.

601
00:30:10.053 --> 00:30:11.554
And that was the five o'clock shadow.

602
00:30:12.404 --> 00:30:19.346
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

603
00:30:19.346 --> 00:30:21.346
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

604
00:30:21.346 --> 00:30:23.087
position or opinion of any other agency,
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605
00:30:23.427 --> 00:30:28.048
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

606
00:30:28.528 --> 00:30:35.490
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

607
00:30:35.490 --> 00:30:37.490
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

608
00:30:37.490 --> 00:30:41.932
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

609
00:30:41.932 --> 00:30:43.932
change, revision, and revision.

610
00:30:43.932 --> 00:30:45.932
and rethinking at any time.

611
00:30:45.932 --> 00:30:46.520
Please do not hold us to them in
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