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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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They say that travel broadens the mind.

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So let's go around the world with David
Nee, head of Multi-Asset 91 in Cape Town.

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And when we were chatting about what to
talk about in this podcast,

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David said he's happy to talk about the
bigger picture, growth, inflation,

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productivity,

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bond equity valuations, the dollar,
investor positioning, prospective returns.

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David, is that all?

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Or should we do some more in the 10
minutes that we've got?

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But seriously, let's start with growth,
shall we?

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Because it's interesting.

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President Donald Trump, in his State of
the Union address recently, said growth

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bowling along at 4% to 5%

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in the United States.

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It was briefly, now back to 1.4%.

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But generally, in the world's biggest
economy, our first destination, it's

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pretty good, isn't it?

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Yeah, look, it's, I think, the ongoing
fixed investment party that is...

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playing out in the US in particular is
certainly driving growth,

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although clearly from a sector positioning
perspective,

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it's not universally lifting kind of all
boats in the way that you'd expect

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from a kind of more regular economic
expansion.

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But the growth numbers generally continue
to benefit from the easing of monetary

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policy that we

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saw kind of worldwide.

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but continuing in the US and the UK,

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there's even a small probability of a cut
now being priced into Europe.

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So, you know, that sort of monetary policy
expansion combined with some fiscal easing

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that has,

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I mean, we're waiting for the one big
beautiful bill to really start kicking in

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and

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in Europe to see some of those defence
budgets expanding.

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So the backdrop still seems to be that
this particular period of economic

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expansion is likely to

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continue through 2026.

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Yes, many people say that in Europe it's
not just about fiscal policy and monetary

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policy, it's also about deregulation,

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which the United States is very good at
under Trump.

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So we'll see if that happens.

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We haven't spoken about China.

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China's not quite as clear cut from what I
can make out.

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No, I think it is.

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What's been interesting there is, unlike
certain previous episodes,

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where the policy support that has been
deployed in the face of more

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challenging macro growth has been more
limited this time.

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So there's been a much clearer desire to
see a correction in the property market

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and to

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let that play through without creating,
you know.

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a hard economic landing.

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But by any conventional measures,

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if one looks at what's happening to
inflation and growth,

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then China would sit in an environment
that I think some might characterize as

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almost

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recessionary.

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There still are a lot of policy levers
that they can pull and consensus

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expectation, I think still

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Chinese growth at 4.5% or something like
that for 2026.

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Obviously, one wonders always about the
accuracy of some of those statistics.

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But yeah, it has been, I think it's fair
to say,

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it's been disappointing in terms of its
growth outcomes.

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Let's move to inflation now.

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Fascinating subject, because after
Liberation Day, everybody, almost

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everybody anyway,

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was talking about inflation rising and
rising fairly dramatically in the United

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States as inflation was

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imported.

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But here we are with, I think.

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CPI inflation, consumer price inflation at
around about 2.4% it is and core

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inflation,

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I think 1.7%.

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So everyone, all the experts, all the
economists getting it completely wrong.

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That's very good news for monetary policy,
of course.

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Yes.

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I mean, the inflationary impulse has been
surprising economists now for certainly if

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you look at kind of,

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you know, headline inflation around the
world, you know, for the best part of two

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years.

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Economists have been concerned about the
underlying stickiness of prices,

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the anchoring of inflation expectations at
a higher level than we've seen in recent

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decades.

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And those have been themes that we observe
in, you know,

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the concerns that have manifested across
those forecasts.

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And inflation is essentially then
surprised on the downside.

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And that has opened the door to, you know.

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I guess, the rate cuts that we've seen
across the developed world.

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Although one, you know, I think it's
important to note that there are countries

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now,

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Australia and Canada come to mind in
particular.

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New Zealand is also starting to pivot
where rates are either rising or

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or the market is anticipating monetary
policy tightening.

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Can I also mention South Africa when it
comes to inflation?

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Because inflation under control, the last
print I saw, was rather gratifying.

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And the forecasts for the rest of the year
are that inflation will stay under control

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and in fact fall.

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Do you share that view?

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I mean, I think the inflation outlook in
South Africa remains benign and the

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reserve banks move to a new 3%.

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target, yeah, I think has created an
ongoing re-anchoring of inflation

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expectations

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lower, then sees a kind of virtuous loop
developing where price setting behavior

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and wage setting behavior adjusts to a
structural shift lower in long-term

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inflation views.

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And that has clearly been reflected in the
performance of South African financial

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markets too,

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where we've seen an enormous rally in
South African bonds.

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and equities.

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Globally, do you think productivity is
going to continue to be boosted, as it

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seems to be now, by innovations in tech,

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AI, for example?

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Yes.

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I mean, that is a $64,000 question.

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I think the broad view across the market
is that it will be productivity enhancing.

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One of the challenges historically with a
lot of the technological advances that

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we've we've seen in our lifetimes,
Lindsay.

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We've gone from in the

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1980s, what would now be probably a small
home computer being the size of a car.

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But up until very recently, you hadn't
seen any real productivity benefits across

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much of the developed

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world.

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And the same, the implementation of the
World Wide Web and the access to computing

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power in your pocket,

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in your smartphone.

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And that does create some...

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I think the bond investor in me kind of
has some scepticism about how big a change

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it will make.

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But the broad acceptance across economists
is that it will be productivity

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enhancing.

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Well, interestingly then, obviously,
there's a divided camp about what that

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means for interest rates,

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because the Kevin Walsh view is that
higher productivity will mean that

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you can have a lower level of rates,
Whereas You know,

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I think some of the other federal reserve
governors in the US would say quite the

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contrary,

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that higher productivity means higher GDP
growth and means a higher neutral real

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interest rate.

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So, you know, I think there's a lot yet
which needs to kind of be determined.

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And also, whilst we see productivity
strong in the US, much less of it kind of

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evident in the UK or in Europe yet.

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Yeah, again, playing catch up to a Trump
America, if you like.

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the dollar While we're talking about
America, we have to talk about the dollar.

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I had an excellent chat with one of your
colleagues in London.

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And rather than talking about the
debasement of the US dollar, we talked

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about the sort of gradual decline of the
US dollar and how long that

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might last.

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And it seems to be a reality now.

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OK, it seems to be quite stable, certainly
against the euro around that 118 level.

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But the future seems to be less than
bright for the world's reserve currency.

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core expectation would be that the dollar
would gently and gradually depreciate

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against other global

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currencies.

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I mean, in part, one has to kind of
recognize that you have had, I mean, bar

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last year,

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up until then, you'd had pretty much 14 or
15 years of dollar appreciation.

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And you went from a, you know, a real
effective exchange rate low at the end of

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2007 to

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you know, close to a real effective
exchange rate high at the end of 2024.

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And even with the dollar depreciation that
we saw in the first half of last year, you

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know,

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the long term chart still shows the dollar
looking pretty elevated.

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And I think that there are good reasons to
think that the amount of liquidity

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creation that's going on

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in the US will continue to provide an
impetus for

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dollar depreciation over the next decade
or so, particularly from this level of, I

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think, of elevated valuation.

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And of course, what that means is for
everyone, actually, I mean, for emerging

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markets,

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they have to then adjust their policies
towards their currency staying stronger

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against the US dollar by

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definition.

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And even bond investors and equity
investors in any country in the world have

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to also look at their investor
positioning.

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So what we should look at now is...

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Three subjects in one, actually, bond and
equity valuations,

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how you're positioned at 91 and what your
prospective returns are.

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So let's look at bond and equities and
bring in your position while talking about

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that, please.

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2025 was an extraordinary year because
bond and equities didn't behave as they

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normally behave with each other, did they?

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No, sure.

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I mean, it was I think most people thought
that you were going to get a.

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A much more profound bond market sell-off
on the back of the, particularly of the

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Liberation Day,

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tariffs and an expected surge in
inflation,

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and that those tariffs would also
negatively impact economic activity and

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you would see then a rippling through into
equities.

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Well, you know, it turned out to be, I
mean, more than a decent year in equities.

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I mean, in some cases, I mean, absolutely
stellar.

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I mean, you look at some of the peripheral
markets in Europe, some of the Southern

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European markets, you know,

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the Greek market was up 80% last year, and

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South African market up over 40, Korean
market, I think, up 80%.

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So you had some extraordinary returns
coming through.

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The S&P lagged, but was still up 20.

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It was a very decent year.

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And on top of that...

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You didn't see the inflation coming
through,

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which surprised everybody because it
seemed to fly in the face of what

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standard economic theory would suggest is
going to happen when you move tariffs from

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about a 2% or 3% average to a

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15% average rate.

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And so, you know, bonds also had a better
time than people kind of had anticipated

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they would.

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And long bond yields, particularly towards
the end of the year, started to perform

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very well.

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I mean, from here, Lindsay, I mean,

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one certainly needs to say that equity
valuations are not at levels that would be

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considered cheap

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compared to their long-term histories.

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So we have a valuation headwind in many
markets,

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but we also have ongoing strong earnings
delivery on the back of the growth

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environment that we've talked about.

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And it would be extremely unusual in a
world where earnings continue to deliver.

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mid-teens levels of growth and to beat
expectations for the equity market

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to turn down.

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So I think that that is the environment
that we're in.

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Bonds, I think, still look pretty well
supported in an environment where

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inflation

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maintains its sort of gentle downward
trajectory.

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And we continue to see overall.

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you know, the US cutting rates further,
whether that's two cuts or three cuts, I

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think it's not super,

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super important to having a reasonable
return in hard currency from fixed income

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instruments.

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So overall, in positioning, we still
remain constructively positioned in risk

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assets,

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particularly in equities, where we see
that earnings delivery story and the

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economic growth continuing through

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26 as being supportive.

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I think on fixed income, developed market
fixed,

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we would prefer to fish in some of the
idiosyncratic stories across emerging

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markets.

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So the likes of Brazil and South Africa
have had strong idiosyncratic stories.

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You've got structural change going on in
South Africa that we've discussed in terms

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of its rates and inflation dynamic.

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I think also the potential growth being
lifted by various initiatives to bring the

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private sector into various domains that
were

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previously occupied.

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by relatively inefficient public
companies.

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And I think that that, you know, that
looks pretty compelling to us.

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So those, I think, some of the
possibilities that look attractive to us

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right now.

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It's going to be an interesting year
compared to 2025, because 2025, as you

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said, 80%

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return from the Greek market, the Korean
market, 40% from South Africa, 20% from

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the S&P,

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which nobody would have predicted at the
beginning of the year.

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They might have and said, well, maybe
we'll get up to 15%.

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But anyway, it was a fantastic year.

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You're not going to get that again.

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And you're not going to get a broad based
tech rally,

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because it's already starting to become a
little bit disjointed between certain tech

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sectors.

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But overall, 2026 has a sort of a
Goldilocks feel about it, David,

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as we conclude this discussion.

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And that's pretty good for most risk asset
classes, isn't it?

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I think you're right, we would
characterize it as a Goldilocks scenario.

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That will be a scenario broadly when we
think about macro regimes of growth

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surprising

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kind of sequentially on the upside and
inflation surprising on the downside.

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And that's how the macro data is currently
playing through.

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And those environments in history have
been constructive for bonds and for

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equities.

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So, yeah, I mean, I think you're right in
kind of highlighting a kind of

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constructive view overall.

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The challenge for investors is that there
is some notion that we're kind of running

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out of steam.

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And therefore, I think that there will be
a point at which When we see that earnings

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delivery start to turn down,

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if we start to see that the monetary
policy easing cycle across the US,

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the UK and elsewhere is coming to an end,

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or we start to see some sequential
disappointment in economic activity, then

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those, I think,

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are all warning signs for investors that
would certainly lead us to be reducing our

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overweight position in

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equities.

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and to be adding duration to portfolios at
that point in time.

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But that point doesn't feel like it's now.

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David, thank you very much for your time.

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David Nee is Head of Multi-Asset at 91 in
Cape Town.

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beings, these views are always subject to

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