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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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With me is Philip Saunders, Director,
Investment Institute at 91 in London.

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And he sent me a piece kindly a couple of
days ago and it said, the US midterm

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six-year itch, if it occurs,

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won't reverse the Trump doctrine.

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Philip, I watched the Trump doctrine in
full sway last night because I happened to

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get up at my time,

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three o'clock in the morning, to watch the
State of the Union address and he was

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quite combative.

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He's got a thick skin, that man.

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I'll give him that.

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He's got the hide of a proverbial
rhinoceros, or what the North American

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equivalent is.

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Well, when you think about it, you know,
he's been sued left, right and centre.

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You've had all of this, you know, lawfare,
and it goes on and on.

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And he basically has managed to slough
that off.

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And, you know, he's got re-elected.

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He got elected the first time.

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He's not expected to be elected the first
time, which is partly why it's such a

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shambles.

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A second time round, you know, he came
back, he sort of, all these legal cases

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and so forth,

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and sort of on he goes.

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So, you know, whatever you think about the
man, you know, he's as tough as an old

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boat.

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Yes, he's a force of nature, and it's
difficult not to talk about Trump when

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reading your piece.

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The six-year itch is, of course, a
phenomenon because we've got the midterm

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elections coming up in around about eight
and a half months now.

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And he's right at the bottom of the polls.

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but I think that's quite normal.

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He's gone a little bit further than
normality, though, as he always does.

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And he's one of the least popular
presidents, apparently, due to the polls.

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But I get the feeling, having listened to
him last night,

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that he's going to try and address that
and become more of a populist when it

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comes to the man and woman in the

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street of America.

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How significant are the polls that are
coming up in November?

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Well, I mean, I think the midterm
elections are you pretty important

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because, you know,

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quite often if the president's party does
badly,

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then, you know, he can kiss goodbye to any
other parts of his program he wants to get

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enacted.

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Yes, because Congress and the Senate have
the ability to sort of frustrate those

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efforts.

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And we've seen it time and time again.

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You know, you have the lame duck
presidents after the midterms.

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And so, you know, historically...

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Presidents that have had two terms tend to
do really badly in their second midterm

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elections,

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and this is Trump's second midterm
elections.

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But what's unusual about the situation
with Trump is that he didn't have two

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consecutive terms.

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There was a gap in between.

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And only one other president in U.S.

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history has...

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has become president, then lost the
presidency, and then regained it.

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And that was Grover Cleveland in the late
19th century.

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Great name, Grover Cleveland,
incidentally.

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Let's have a look at Congress and the
Senate.

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Congress, 435 seats will be contested.

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Senate, 35 seats will be there.

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He should hold on to the Senate, but
Congress will go.

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And the lame duck president that you spoke
of is a distinct reality.

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Yeah, but the point I make in the article
is that even if he does become a lame duck

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president,

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and we can talk about that in a moment,

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he has moved, I think, the center of
gravity of

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US politics and also

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America's relationship with the rest of
the world in a way that's unlikely to be

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moved

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back in a serious sense.

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And that is significant.

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So whatever happens, let's say, you know,
the worst case is that they lose the

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majority in the Senate.

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It's reasonably marginal.

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They should hold on to it.

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But it's not.

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You know, if things go really badly, they
could lose that.

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Congress, definitely they could lose.

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And at the moment, the polls suggest that
they're on track to lose control of

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Congress.

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But you've seen this furious level of
activity.

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across all dimensions of US policy
occurring in the first year of his

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presidency.

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So he came into this term, this
presidential term, with a much more

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organised agenda.

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He knew how government worked or didn't
work,

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and he knew that he had to proceed at pace
to get what he wanted done in

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effectively the first year.

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And it's now obviously rolling out now,

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all of the deregulation now is beginning
to potentially open the way for growth to

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rebound.

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And clearly the reset in foreign
relationships are getting Europe to pick

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up the tab to Ukraine,

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and also its own defense, you know, which
to my mind seems entirely reasonable.

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Most Americans support that.

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And then, you know, basically using
tariffs to try and reset the level of

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playing field, as they see it,

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in favor of the U.S.

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That, of course,

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is the provider of the great bulk of final
demand in the global economy at the

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moment.

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Philip, a lot of people that are Democrats
listening to you would be bristling a

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little bit now because the first point
that they might make is organized agenda

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and Trump don't belong in the same
sentence because he's very

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haphazard with his agenda.

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Also, not being able to stop you there.

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Yes, you can.

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So I think that that is an understandable
sort of Democrat perspective.

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And and you've got to separate the
rhetoric

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and the theatre from the programme.

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OK, and I think that a lot of Democrats
make the mistake of basically being sort

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of obsessed with the tweet.

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and whatever they're called now, talk
sense or whatever,

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and get mesmerised by the theatre, and
that distracts them.

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It's rather like a magician's technique,
yes,

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where you've got to distract the audience
in order to actually sort of line up the

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trick.

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And that's essentially what's going on.

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So there's a very clear programme that's
very joined up because it joins up

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basically...

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economic policy with foreign policy in a
way that we haven't really seen for years

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in the US.

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And that's the point.

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And that's why I think there has been a
shift in gravity.

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So go back to Trump's first term.

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It was a mess.

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And so everybody thinks, second, he's just
a mess.

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And I think that's just the wrong way of
looking at it, whether you like him or

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not.

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And I think when you're trying to make
investment decisions and understand things

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from a sort of macro perspective,

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I think you have to try and take the
personality out of the equation.

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We'll get to macro in a moment, because
that's very interesting, isn't it?

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And we can get rid of all the X posts that
he sends at 2.30 in the morning and that

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sort of thing.

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It's difficult to ignore that sort of
behavior, but we will do.

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And we'll get to macro in a moment.

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What I'm saying is you've got to look
through it.

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If you want to understand what the MAGA
team are trying to achieve.

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You've got to look through it.

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And, you know, you can get terribly
exercised about, you know, Vance's sort

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of, Vance's and so forth.

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There's endless scope for all of that.

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But it's really, so the point I wanted to
make about the first term...

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Don't forget Miller as well.

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Yeah, I mean, you know, I mean, it's,
anyway, let's not go there for the moment.

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So in his first term,

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one of the key things that he did was to
change America's policy vis-a-vis

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China.

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Okay, so he recognized that China was
emerging as a significant threat,

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and the Chimerica policy of basically
helping China to develop, you know,

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was having very negative consequences for
the US, you know, across a whole range of

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areas, because the Chinese quite sensibly,

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you know, look to take full advantage of
this.

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And, you know, what the Americans didn't
understand was that China was not just a

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another emerging

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market that has to sort of wait in a line.

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that it was going to emerge as a peer
competitor and move up the value chain

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aggressively, which it's done.

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So under Biden, of course, there was no
turning the clock back.

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Yeah.

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Biden actually was even more anti-China
and actually did the work and the detail.

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And the Democrats basically introduced a
whole raft of measures to sort of address

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the challenge that China

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represents.

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And so that's an example of, you know,
policy having shifted.

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whether the Democrats were in power or the
Republicans were in power.

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So what I'm saying is that now we're
seeing a further shift in terms of

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particularly America's relationship with
Europe.

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You know, essentially America is forcing
other countries to take sides.

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Okay.

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And using tariffs as a sort of, Trump is
using tariffs as a sort of big stick to

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try and actually achieve this.

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Yes, we saw that recently when he said,
because he didn't get his way with the

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legal system,

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I'll put it politely, he said, OK, I'm
going to slap 10% tariffs on.

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Then the next day he said, I'm going to
slap 15% tariffs on.

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And then the following day, suddenly it
was back to 10% again, very, very quietly

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back to 10%.

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But anyway, his tariff policy...

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Which is why markets look through it.

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They just sort of, you know, it's a sort
of Trump being Trump.

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You know, it's going to sort of go up and
down and basically, but ultimately...

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Ultimately, there is some kind of rational
outcomes, OK, despite the theatre.

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Yes.

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And I suppose that the importer exporter
sitting there somewhere with a medium

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sized business isn't the markets.

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Of course, they have to do the real work
of changing paperwork every five minutes.

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But again, that's not for us to discuss
because we're talking about markets and

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macro.

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So let me stop you there, because I think
that the reality of the situation is that

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we've been living in

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pixieland.

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for decades after the Cold War ended.

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And we believe that we sort of lived in
this environment of, you know, where there

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were rules,

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the countries obeyed, and, you know, there
was no sort of, you know,

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it wasn't underwritten by sort of force
and violence, OK?

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We lived in this sort of, you know, world
that we wanted to believe was sustainable,

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and it just simply wasn't.

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You know, China's rise, you know, China
operates on a scale, you know, Japan

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pursued similar economic,

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a similar economic model, but was
notionally democratic and sort of, you

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know,

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played more or less by the rules.

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China basically on a completely different
scale.

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And, you know, incorporating China that
plays by very different rules, actually,

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into the established sort of Western
liberal system.

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economic system was, you know, ultimately
doomed to fail.

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Okay, so China was successful in its
development, it was doomed to fail.

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So that's the reality that we've all got
to understand and face.

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And it's a very messy reality.

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And so in the great scheme of things,
whether Trump says 10% one day and 5% the

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next day,

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in the great scheme of things, that's
irrelevant.

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Again.

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It's not irrelevant to certain people, but
that's not our job.

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What about macroeconomics in the United
States?

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He's clearly very upset with Powell, the
current Fed chair, soon to be ex-Fed chair

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in May of this year.

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He's got a good chap going in there in the
form of Walsh.

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He seems to be a reasonable fellow.

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But he said last night in the State of the
Union address, he said growth is 4% to 5%.

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No, it's not actually.

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The last print was 1.4% for the GDP.

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Last year,

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the American economy only produced 181,000
jobs outside of the farming sector.

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That's not very many per month.

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This year, it's got off to a slightly
better start with 130,000 jobs in a month

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being created.

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But it's not the best economy that the
United States has ever seen, as he

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occasionally says.

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Philip, what's your assessment of the U.S.

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economy now and potentially during the
Trump tenure?

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Well, I think it's reasonably clear to my
mind.

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So essentially,

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we've been through a phase where the
Democrats under Biden stimulated the

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economy.

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They borrowed massive amount of money,
despite the fact that the economy was

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actually growing.

243
00:13:09.861 --> 00:13:12.285
And so therefore, growth became very
dependent.

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If you hadn't had that fiscal stimulus,
then the US probably would have

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experienced a recession.

246
00:13:19.489 --> 00:13:21.489
Okay.

247
00:13:21.489 --> 00:13:23.725
And so what we've seen instead is this
sort of soft landing going on.

248
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Okay.

249
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And you've also had the impact of interest
rates being raised very significantly.

250
00:13:31.369 --> 00:13:35.412
The cost of capital has gone up massively
since 2020, 21.

251
00:13:36.172 --> 00:13:39.134
And large parts of the American economy,
you know,

252
00:13:39.154 --> 00:13:44.357
that were hooked on low interest rates
have been in recession.

253
00:13:44.673 --> 00:13:51.459
Okay, so you've had this two-tier thing
with sort of Magnificent Seven basically

254
00:13:51.459 --> 00:13:53.459
shooting the lights out, and the rest of
the economy,

255
00:13:53.459 --> 00:13:55.459
you know, really struggling.

256
00:13:55.459 --> 00:13:57.459
I mean, look at the housing market, for
example.

257
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Yes.

258
00:13:59.459 --> 00:14:01.459
So you've had this very two-tier economy,

259
00:14:01.459 --> 00:14:02.708
and now inflation basically is continuing
to surprise on the low side.

260
00:14:02.768 --> 00:14:09.714
So the consensus basically, you know,
having got it totally wrong, you know, and

261
00:14:09.714 --> 00:14:11.714
the chairman, Chairman Powell also got it,

262
00:14:11.714 --> 00:14:13.877
the Fed under Chairman Powell, also raised
rates far too late.

263
00:14:14.037 --> 00:14:15.017
because they got it wrong.

264
00:14:15.497 --> 00:14:18.958
OK, so they're guilty as charged, I
believe.

265
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And now they're probably keeping rates too
high for too long.

266
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OK, and so that's why basically there's
pressure on the Fed to actually not be so

267
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backward looking

268
00:14:31.441 --> 00:14:36.123
and to get rates down to a sort of
equilibrium type level, which is sort of

269
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probably three-ish percent.

270
00:14:38.123 --> 00:14:41.325
So that's so clearly Trump wants low
rates.

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00:14:42.202 --> 00:14:45.929
But if you have low rates and the
consequences higher inflation

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00:14:46.948 --> 00:14:51.870
and affordability and the cost of living
is amongst voters' key concerns,

273
00:14:52.510 --> 00:14:56.172
then that doesn't solve your midterm
problem for you, does it?

274
00:14:56.432 --> 00:14:57.132
Okay.

275
00:14:57.132 --> 00:14:58.073
So going back to growth.

276
00:14:58.113 --> 00:15:02.154
So inflation picture actually looks
encouraging as it continues to improve.

277
00:15:02.274 --> 00:15:06.576
Yes, he mentioned that last night, core
inflation at 1.7%, which is pretty good.

278
00:15:06.596 --> 00:15:10.218
And the CPI, which came out recently,
2.4%.

279
00:15:10.219 --> 00:15:12.459
So yes, inflation has surprised on the
downside.

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00:15:12.839 --> 00:15:15.460
And productivity has been very good.

281
00:15:15.720 --> 00:15:16.420
OK.

282
00:15:16.420 --> 00:15:21.744
And, you know, actually, in a growth
economy, you want strong productivity,

283
00:15:21.744 --> 00:15:23.744
which means that, you know,

284
00:15:23.744 --> 00:15:26.208
you don't have to create vast numbers of
jobs in order to move the economy forward.

285
00:15:26.228 --> 00:15:26.928
OK.

286
00:15:26.928 --> 00:15:29.190
It's the sort of it's the right kind of
growth to have.

287
00:15:30.050 --> 00:15:33.993
And it looks as if, you know, certainly
all the data I look at,

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00:15:34.554 --> 00:15:39.037
you're seeing basically a reacceleration
going on, you know, which is fairly broad.

289
00:15:39.137 --> 00:15:43.380
and you're seeing this big swing back
towards, you know.

290
00:15:43.620 --> 00:15:46.723
basically cyclical stocks going on in the
stock markets.

291
00:15:47.183 --> 00:15:52.107
And that is telling you, telling you a bit
about, quite a lot about positioning,

292
00:15:52.107 --> 00:15:54.107
prior positioning,

293
00:15:54.107 --> 00:15:58.712
but it's also telling you that we're
moving into a basically cyclically more

294
00:15:58.712 --> 00:16:00.712
sort of positive kind of environment.

295
00:16:00.712 --> 00:16:05.378
So I think the growth picture in the
States is improving and inflation is

296
00:16:05.378 --> 00:16:07.378
continuing to moderate.

297
00:16:07.378 --> 00:16:07.960
And so that's a Goldilocks type
combination.

298
00:16:08.480 --> 00:16:12.684
And if I was president looking to try and
sort of do better in the midterms.

299
00:16:13.220 --> 00:16:17.824
then that's a trajectory I could sort of
get amongst.

300
00:16:17.825 --> 00:16:23.749
I mean, if that continues through over the
next eight months or so,

301
00:16:24.329 --> 00:16:26.371
then that is going to help the incumbents.

302
00:16:26.911 --> 00:16:33.117
So just back to macro, if employment is
stagnant at best,

303
00:16:33.557 --> 00:16:35.058
then that justifies rate cuts.

304
00:16:35.318 --> 00:16:39.642
If inflation is benign, and it is, that
justifies rate cuts.

305
00:16:39.942 --> 00:16:41.824
But if growth is good, that doesn't.

306
00:16:42.044 --> 00:16:46.046
But I think the two that I first mentioned
mean that we are going to get cuts this

307
00:16:46.046 --> 00:16:46.386
year.

308
00:16:46.947 --> 00:16:48.828
Oh, I think we're definitely going to get
cuts this year.

309
00:16:50.389 --> 00:16:53.731
And basically, you've got the sort of
Fed's view of the economy,

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00:16:53.811 --> 00:16:59.954
that the sort of maximum growth rate that
you can achieve in real terms is around

311
00:16:59.954 --> 00:17:01.954
2-ish percent.

312
00:17:01.954 --> 00:17:06.178
And that assumes that productivity is sort
of 1-ish percent, i.e.

313
00:17:06.238 --> 00:17:07.378
pretty low by historic.

314
00:17:07.379 --> 00:17:10.080
It's half the rate that we've seen
historically.

315
00:17:10.520 --> 00:17:12.922
Okay, it's been higher and lower during
different periods.

316
00:17:15.244 --> 00:17:20.728
And I think, you know, Besson and Walsh
and that crowd, they say, you know,

317
00:17:20.728 --> 00:17:22.728
actually, no,

318
00:17:22.728 --> 00:17:24.931
if we deregulate, you know, we free up the
economy,

319
00:17:25.692 --> 00:17:30.596
and we remove a lot of regulation, which
they've done,

320
00:17:31.136 --> 00:17:35.660
and we set interest rates at the right
level, and we encourage productive

321
00:17:35.660 --> 00:17:37.660
investment.

322
00:17:37.660 --> 00:17:40.865
Then actually the economy can grow quite a
lot faster because we can improve

323
00:17:40.865 --> 00:17:42.865
productivity.

324
00:17:42.865 --> 00:17:43.326
And that means that inflation doesn't take
off.

325
00:17:45.287 --> 00:17:46.387
It might tick up again.

326
00:17:47.167 --> 00:17:53.589
But it means that actually the sustainable
rate of growth might be 3 and not 2% in

327
00:17:53.589 --> 00:17:55.589
real terms.

328
00:17:55.589 --> 00:17:56.170
And so it's a sort of philosophical
difference.

329
00:17:56.210 --> 00:18:02.912
You've got basically a group who are
basically fundamentally pro-growth, you

330
00:18:02.912 --> 00:18:04.912
know, release entrepreneurship.

331
00:18:04.912 --> 00:18:09.962
move things internationally in America's
favor,

332
00:18:11.362 --> 00:18:13.163
try and get the deficit down.

333
00:18:13.583 --> 00:18:17.284
You know, that's the longer term objective
because that's a key challenge.

334
00:18:17.344 --> 00:18:19.704
So it's basically they're in that camp.

335
00:18:19.724 --> 00:18:24.546
They want to be pro-growth and they want
to basically create the conditions that

336
00:18:24.546 --> 00:18:26.546
will allow

337
00:18:26.546 --> 00:18:27.307
America to grow out of its problems.

338
00:18:27.927 --> 00:18:32.428
Now, if you contrast that with other
countries, yeah, Um,

339
00:18:32.848 --> 00:18:38.732
It's very different because Europe clearly
needs to deregulate extensively in order

340
00:18:38.732 --> 00:18:39.072
to...

341
00:18:39.072 --> 00:18:44.256
It's getting a bit of a cyclical uplift at
the moment because the germs have come to

342
00:18:44.256 --> 00:18:46.256
the party with fiscal spending.

343
00:18:46.678 --> 00:18:50.340
And they were quicker to lower rates as
well, of course, the ECB.

344
00:18:51.241 --> 00:18:57.065
Entirely, they've been quicker to lower
rates and basically consumer balance

345
00:18:57.065 --> 00:18:59.065
sheets are pretty strong in the EU.

346
00:18:59.065 --> 00:19:01.268
But that fuels a cyclical rebound that...

347
00:19:01.880 --> 00:19:06.762
that basically is not going to be
particularly dramatic in terms of the

348
00:19:06.762 --> 00:19:08.762
actual long-term growth rate.

349
00:19:08.762 --> 00:19:14.786
And the problem of low productivity
remains, whereas America is trying to

350
00:19:14.786 --> 00:19:16.786
solve its problem of low productivity.

351
00:19:16.786 --> 00:19:16.846
That's the point I'm making.

352
00:19:16.947 --> 00:19:21.268
OK, we've spoken a little bit about
foreign policy, the foreign policy of

353
00:19:21.268 --> 00:19:21.648
Trump.

354
00:19:21.648 --> 00:19:23.769
We need not get into that now because
we're running out of time.

355
00:19:24.030 --> 00:19:28.832
But you've mentioned his approach towards
China, and I see your points there.

356
00:19:29.112 --> 00:19:29.812
Canada.

357
00:19:29.852 --> 00:19:31.574
I don't really see any point there.

358
00:19:32.294 --> 00:19:34.356
Greenland, well, we don't even need to get
into that.

359
00:19:34.436 --> 00:19:37.259
Invading Venezuela, another one that needs
to pass us by.

360
00:19:37.599 --> 00:19:39.541
It's about the midterms.

361
00:19:39.542 --> 00:19:40.682
It's about low oil prices.

362
00:19:40.683 --> 00:19:41.923
It doesn't matter what it's about.

363
00:19:41.983 --> 00:19:42.884
Is it right or wrong?

364
00:19:42.885 --> 00:19:49.509
And polishing the missiles on the Abraham
Lincoln or the Gerald Ford ships that are

365
00:19:49.509 --> 00:19:51.509
currently parked strategically

366
00:19:51.509 --> 00:19:52.112
close to Iran, that's another story.

367
00:19:52.372 --> 00:19:54.654
But as you say, it's a midterm play.

368
00:19:55.094 --> 00:19:56.796
What does this mean for positioning,
though?

369
00:19:57.328 --> 00:20:02.727
Does this mean that the word Goldilocks
can apply to the markets in 2026 Philip?

370
00:20:03.501 --> 00:20:05.102
Yes, so I think it can.

371
00:20:05.462 --> 00:20:10.503
And I think that's, you know, in a way,
basically, you're seeing a very

372
00:20:10.503 --> 00:20:12.503
significant rotation within markets.

373
00:20:12.503 --> 00:20:16.445
So if you look at how well sort of
non-tech is doing at the moment, you know,

374
00:20:16.446 --> 00:20:19.206
that is a testament to a Goldilocks
environment.

375
00:20:19.787 --> 00:20:26.549
Now, a cyclically positive environment
does eventually, you know, employment is a

376
00:20:26.549 --> 00:20:28.549
bit of a backward looking indicator.

377
00:20:28.549 --> 00:20:31.695
And, you know, just having a look at the
number of jobs created in January, for

378
00:20:31.695 --> 00:20:31.835
example,

379
00:20:31.835 --> 00:20:37.238
is not really going to tell us much about
the number of jobs that are going to be

380
00:20:37.238 --> 00:20:39.238
created come sort of the midterms.

381
00:20:39.238 --> 00:20:40.559
But, you know, that's the point.

382
00:20:40.560 --> 00:20:43.360
So Goldilocks environment is generally
good for markets.

383
00:20:44.261 --> 00:20:49.583
And, you know, because the bond market
doesn't misbehave if inflation is sort of

384
00:20:49.583 --> 00:20:51.583
under control and

385
00:20:51.583 --> 00:20:51.884
short term rates are moderated.

386
00:20:52.464 --> 00:20:53.465
And so that's helpful.

387
00:20:54.465 --> 00:21:00.531
Oil prices seem to be, you know, unless we
get a spike as a result of conflict in

388
00:21:00.531 --> 00:21:02.531
Iran, you know, which, you know,

389
00:21:02.531 --> 00:21:03.273
clearly the Trump team doesn't want.

390
00:21:03.274 --> 00:21:09.599
They want low oil prices because they see
that as part of the sort of proposition to

391
00:21:09.599 --> 00:21:11.599
the electorate come the midterms.

392
00:21:11.599 --> 00:21:11.802
You begin to see a pattern here.

393
00:21:11.822 --> 00:21:13.383
So it's all about the midterms.

394
00:21:13.803 --> 00:21:15.745
Foreign policy is all about the midterms.

395
00:21:15.785 --> 00:21:18.148
Domestic policy is also all about the
midterms.

396
00:21:18.628 --> 00:21:19.569
It's pretty joined up.

397
00:21:20.153 --> 00:21:20.853
Yes, it is.

398
00:21:20.853 --> 00:21:26.999
And hopefully for him, he can reverse the
polls showing him as the least popular

399
00:21:26.999 --> 00:21:28.999
president since World War Two.

400
00:21:28.999 --> 00:21:30.462
The polls move around.

401
00:21:32.124 --> 00:21:38.870
I think that if he loses Congress, will
that bother him unduly?

402
00:21:39.530 --> 00:21:40.912
No, because the course is set.

403
00:21:42.593 --> 00:21:46.617
And so the Republicans will be thinking
about the next presidential elections.

404
00:21:47.265 --> 00:21:48.746
and teeing things up for that.

405
00:21:48.826 --> 00:21:50.047
So that will become the next.

406
00:21:50.407 --> 00:21:51.928
It's already on the horizon.

407
00:21:52.569 --> 00:21:58.353
So in terms of their thinking, you know,
midterms, electorates punish incumbents

408
00:21:58.353 --> 00:22:00.353
typically, you know,

409
00:22:00.353 --> 00:22:02.353
that's what tends to happen.

410
00:22:02.353 --> 00:22:05.438
And because, you know, we're sort of in a
febrile state, whereby basically,

411
00:22:06.159 --> 00:22:11.883
large part of the US electorate still feel
pretty hard done by, they haven't really

412
00:22:11.883 --> 00:22:13.883
sort of seen the benefits coming through.

413
00:22:13.883 --> 00:22:14.745
They're also seeing this foreign
conflicts.

414
00:22:15.385 --> 00:22:17.147
which was not what they thought they
signed up to.

415
00:22:17.247 --> 00:22:17.947
So we'll see.

416
00:22:18.968 --> 00:22:25.433
But opinion polls are mercurial, and we
shouldn't just extrapolate from the

417
00:22:25.433 --> 00:22:27.433
current situation.

418
00:22:27.433 --> 00:22:32.499
You finish your piece saying it will take
a lot more than an itch to reverse the

419
00:22:32.499 --> 00:22:34.499
Trump doctrine, and that really came
across in this chat that we've had.

420
00:22:34.499 --> 00:22:36.499
Philip, thank you very much for your time.

421
00:22:36.499 --> 00:22:38.524
Philip Saunders is director, Investment
Institute at 91 in London.

422
00:22:40.366 --> 00:22:44.069
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams.

423
00:22:44.429 --> 00:22:51.032
and various contributors and do not
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424
00:22:51.032 --> 00:22:53.032
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425
00:22:53.032 --> 00:22:55.994
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426
00:22:56.474 --> 00:23:03.437
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427
00:23:03.437 --> 00:23:05.437
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428
00:23:05.437 --> 00:23:09.619
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

429
00:23:09.619 --> 00:23:11.619
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430
00:23:11.619 --> 00:23:11.760
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431
00:23:12.060 --> 00:23:13.241
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00:23:13.682 --> 00:23:14.470
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