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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

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Has it really been a week, Skulk?

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Seems to me like six months or something.

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The amount of stuff that's happened in the
past week, quite extraordinary.

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No, no, no.

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Let's start.

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Let's get the elephant out of the room,
man.

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Massive applause.

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I mean, we sat here exactly a week ago.

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You called a top more beautiful than,

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yeah.

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And you told me not to.

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You said there was a graveyard with people
that called tops in it exclusively.

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And you said, don't do it.

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And I felt so strongly about this gap
theory that I have, which is actually very

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well known.

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The exhaustion gap was, in fact, on the
Thursday about...

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About 16 hours after I called the top in
the gold market.

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But goodness me, it worked spectacularly
well, Skunk.

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And I want to take this further because
listeners don't know this.

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We actually had a conversation.

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I complimented Lindsay. I think it was
Monday or yesterday morning.

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Complimented him and he said, I feel this
is overdone.

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Sort of feels like the peg is pegged in
again.

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And I went like, well, you...

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Gold, gold, you top so well.

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Why not do the buttons as well?

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And here we sit.

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Here we sit.

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What actually happened was I looked at the
gold field's longer term share price

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action.

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And it was down 11.6% at the time.

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And I think that was Monday, Monday
morning.

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And it was on a long term trend line
support.

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And it was a simple analysis.

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I just said it's done enough.

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And whether that's a buy or a...

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a do-nothing recommendation, I don't know.

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But from then on, it's rallied quite
sharply.

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Yeah.

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No, that was a great call.

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Great, great call.

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And now we see, because this is massive
movements.

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I mean, we've had a few things happen.

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I mean, like you said, we've had that
massive retracement and people are

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actually extremely nervous

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about this retracement.

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But, you know...

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I tend to feel why.

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I mean, yes, we saw a 10% or 20% in
silver.

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We saw a massive retracement in these best
metals on Friday.

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But I mean, when I did my update on
markets on the 1st of February,

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it still showed that even with that, let's
call it 10% retracement in the gold price,

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the gold price still did more than 16%

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in dollar terms in January alone.

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So, come on.

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If you're going to be nervous about a 10%
retracement, why not ask the question,

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why did it run way over 20% and still more
than 30%

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over the previous few days?

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This is volatility.

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And that's why they're saying, I can't
remember who coined it.

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I mean, you told me the story.

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It was like gold, gold, it's making me
old.

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That's most probably why.

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Well, it's made you old in a good way in
the last year, and it will continue to do

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so.

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One thing that a technical analyst spoke
to me about after the run-up and then the

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spectacular fall in 48

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hours, it fell nearly $1,200 an ounce,
unprecedented stuff in dollar terms.

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But he said, okay, we've had the A, we'll
get the B, which is the recovery, and then

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the C leg is down again.

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So whether that C leg, if he's correct, is
lower.

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A lower low than the 44.50 or whatever it
was that we got last week?

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I don't know.

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But it's interesting.

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I've just completed an interview with
somebody much cleverer than me.

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He's probably as clever as you.

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And he's from 91 in London.

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You know 91 very well.

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And he's a gold mining investor.

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And he talked to me about why gold had
done it, what he thinks is going to

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happen, and why the gold shares are going
to continue to go.

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He said the gold shares...

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are up three times, sometimes four times
internationally, but their margins have

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gone up fivefold.

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So he feels the shares are still lagging.

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Yeah, we had this conversation last week.

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I'm just going to talk about the profit
margins again.

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I mean, it's true.

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I mean, at these $5,000 levels, these
mines are, well,

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they've been printing money for the past
three, four years.

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They're just, every day they're printing
more.

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But it is important.

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thing to note i mean i did that uh cobe or
chicago board of exchange gold

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volatility index on friday and that's an
interesting one i mean it's just this

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shows us you need to be you just

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need to be careful um and when volatility
starts there's a good

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reason why something like a uh uh uh
warren buffett often referred to to

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volatility

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where he likes to buy uh at certain
volatility levels and and we'll we'll get

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nervous at certain other

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volatility levels not to go into his
strategy but you know when you look at the

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the cobe

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gold volatility index, it's been been
hovering around that has got 15 odd levels

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for the past

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20 years.

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And it kicked up in COVID, during COVID.

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We remember that we had that massive
spike.

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It kicked up over 30, which basically over
30% during COVID.

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But the highest it's actually been was
that time where everybody thought that the

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US is...

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It's actually, it's bankrupt.

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They actually, the volatility index went
over 50.

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And for good reason.

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I mean, there was a really, really good
reason why that happened.

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Now, on Friday, that was the closest the
gold volatility index got to that 50 mark,

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you know,

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since 2008.

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Does it tell us something?

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I'm not going to say it's going to tell us
something about the future.

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All that I'm saying is that things were
pretty cracked back in 2008 for it to have

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such a massive volatility spike.

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If we're going to start seeing these type
of volatility spikes,

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I would just tell people to just be very,
very careful.

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Be very careful.

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Be very careful.

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And this is where we're going to get to
the behavioral science part of the

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podcast.

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And it would be a real example of investor
behavior because you're going to tell me

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now

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what happened on Thursday and Friday.

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What happened to your telephone?

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Well, I had a few nervous calls.

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I'm not going to be lying to you.

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I mean, luckily, I always want to.

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I mean, we always have this conversation
on gold and Lindsay and myself talk about

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it.

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And I've been in gold fairly early and I
haven't really sold.

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But I just want to make it.

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very clear, I've never been a bet the farm
type of guy.

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I've always been managing the risk part of
the portfolio,

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not just the performance side of the
portfolio.

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Even after massive retracement on Friday,

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portfolios were still fairly stable.

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It's just I had a long conversation with
my dad last night.

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You know him as well.

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He's also...

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a well-known individual in the financial
industry or investment industry.

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And we had a long conversation and sort of
debating both

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sides.

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And I think the one thing that we got to
is this could go either side.

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When you have a specific commodity or
investment, that has gone from

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$1,000-odd levels and went over $5,000
levels.

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You need to be careful.

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But the problem is when you got something
like that, if it's called gold, or called

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silver,

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or called something like a Bitcoin, if
something make those type movement,

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you suddenly attract the interest of
people that's not always knowledgeable.

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Yes.

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And they look at that and they've got a
thing with the kids usually called FOMO.

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They've got the fear of missing out.

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And that's a very, very dangerous thing to
be doing.

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in environments where something has gone
up as it did.

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I still believe as an investment,

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gold and silver and other precious metals
like platinum, palladium, rhodium,

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it's definitely looking attractive.

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I think these underlying mines are really,
really profitable.

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And I think if the, let's call it these
precious metals stay at these current

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levels.

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it's going to yield a really, really good
return for investors.

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I can't see it going much below 4,500.

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I don't think that a market after the
extraordinary 48-hour period that it

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suffered is going to recover.

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You can have a nasty injury, for example,
and go to hospital and get it bandaged up,

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and the doctor says everything's fine now.

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It doesn't mean to say you're going to go
out running again.

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So it's the same with a market like this.

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We did see a V-shaped recovery.

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after Liberation Day in the stock market.

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So there are V-shaped exceptions to the
rule.

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But I think that we get the people that
didn't get out the first time because it

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was too quick, if it rallies again,

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which it has done.

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I mean, it was 5,050 when I was conducting
an interview with that chap from 91.

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That was only 45 minutes ago.

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It's now 49.93, the gold price.

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It's already $50 down.

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It's very volatile.

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So be careful.

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I think let it consolidate and then take
it from there.

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Do you agree with me?

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I'm being rather sensible.

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Yeah, I think definitely, undoubtedly.

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But I think today we need to talk about
other things.

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Because I think there's this...

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You know, over the past few days,

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we've also started seeing little cracks in
these tech companies.

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Very much so.

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Yeah, and that's also a very,

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very interesting play because that's sort
of an area in the market that's been

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keeping global markets,

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so to speak, positive.

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I looked at a fund the other day.

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Yeah, I wonder if I should I'd rather not
call out the fund manager's name.

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It's not a local fund manager, but a
well-known international one.

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Don't do it anyway.

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Someone might be listening.

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Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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No, no, no, exactly.

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But it's not a, it's not a brain dump.

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They've got a, it's, the fund's name is

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Global Brands or Well-Known Brands or
something.

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That's the fund's name.

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And it is.

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When you look at the companies that
they're holding in this fund, It is the

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best of the best.

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This is the likes of, yes, they've got the
Microsoft,

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but they're not really just focused on
tech stocks.

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They've got the likes of the Nike and
really, really well-known, the strongest

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brands in the world.

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What is interesting when you look at their
performances over the past, I think it was

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three years,

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the annual performances in dollar.

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for the mci all country world in it which
is their which is their benchmark yield a

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return of just over 21 percent per

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annum this specific fund only did seven
percent per annum so so underperformed

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their benchmark by 14

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percent per annum and by no means can you
look at these these the the the companies

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that they're holding inside the

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fund and think man this is a bad fund
because i look at the fund and I said,

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this is great companies.

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Strong, well-run.

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profitable companies but they were just
not the flavor the flavor was if you

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didn't have some

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ai or you know something like that you
underperformed and and that's that's

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interesting and i

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don't know if you've seen that that thing
about that the software companies are over

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the forest yes i've noticed i've noticed
that this a

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software company is not going to become
obsolete but getting their getting their

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products shunted

245
00:12:49.917 --> 00:12:50.698
aside because of AI, AI replacements.

246
00:12:51.155 --> 00:12:53.678
And your software companies have had a
horrible time.

247
00:12:53.897 --> 00:13:00.842
And the other thing is you're getting to
the point now where there's so many new

248
00:13:00.842 --> 00:13:02.842
entrants to the market that it's sort of
diluting

249
00:13:02.842 --> 00:13:04.842
the trade a little bit.

250
00:13:04.842 --> 00:13:06.842
And people say, right, this is the new
thing.

251
00:13:06.842 --> 00:13:10.991
And taking money out of a traditional, if
there is such a thing, a traditional AI

252
00:13:10.991 --> 00:13:12.991
company, maybe a bit of that is happening.

253
00:13:12.991 --> 00:13:16.334
But also when you I had this conversation
with a couple of chaps on a Thursday

254
00:13:16.334 --> 00:13:18.334
podcast.

255
00:13:18.334 --> 00:13:22.486
and I said there seems to be now a royalty
of AI companies emerging.

256
00:13:22.487 --> 00:13:27.709
In other words, the AI equivalent of, say,
Microsoft coming to the fore.

257
00:13:27.710 --> 00:13:28.935
And you think of NVIDIA.

258
00:13:29.552 --> 00:13:33.795
And so I always look at NVIDIA first on my
tech board.

259
00:13:34.521 --> 00:13:36.099
And it's done nothing for a while.

260
00:13:36.443 --> 00:13:38.881
It went shooting up to 205.

261
00:13:38.882 --> 00:13:40.287
I think that was post-results.

262
00:13:41.099 --> 00:13:47.646
And it's now messing around at, what is
it, about 180, something like that, Skalk,

263
00:13:47.646 --> 00:13:49.646
at the moment.

264
00:13:49.646 --> 00:13:51.646
It's really going nowhere.

265
00:13:51.646 --> 00:13:56.359
And I honestly believe that the amount of
capex that's going into these companies

266
00:13:56.359 --> 00:13:58.359
that is consistently announced at

267
00:13:58.359 --> 00:14:03.937
their results presentations eventually is
going to be a bit of a drag on those

268
00:14:03.937 --> 00:14:05.937
companies.

269
00:14:05.937 --> 00:14:07.625
And the easy money has been made by
investors.

270
00:14:07.703 --> 00:14:12.109
So at best, the good ones go flat to
slightly higher.

271
00:14:12.110 --> 00:14:14.484
At worst, they get replaced by newcomers.

272
00:14:14.609 --> 00:14:15.309
I don't know.

273
00:14:15.309 --> 00:14:16.765
It's just a simple analysis again.

274
00:14:17.047 --> 00:14:18.248
But I agree with you entirely.

275
00:14:18.289 --> 00:14:21.410
It's well worth watching what happens to
the NASDAQ this year.

276
00:14:22.414 --> 00:14:23.114
Correct.

277
00:14:23.191 --> 00:14:24.375
I mean,

278
00:14:24.414 --> 00:14:30.965
you had a few points and really
interesting ones about AI and software

279
00:14:31.019 --> 00:14:31.719
companies.

280
00:14:32.300 --> 00:14:38.730
Because you tend to think, and this way,
the user got the same, that not all tech

281
00:14:38.730 --> 00:14:40.730
companies are created equal.

282
00:14:40.730 --> 00:14:43.855
You would think you've got a portfolio of
great software companies.

283
00:14:43.856 --> 00:14:46.011
I'm not going to mention, again, names
because there's so many.

284
00:14:46.607 --> 00:14:51.574
But if you just look at the S&P North
American Software Index,

285
00:14:51.773 --> 00:14:56.379
this is the, let's call it major software.

286
00:14:56.380 --> 00:14:58.816
I mean, if somebody tells you, are you
invested in tech?

287
00:14:58.879 --> 00:15:02.996
Yes, I'm invested in the S&P North
American Software Index.

288
00:15:03.730 --> 00:15:04.824
That's my benchmark.

289
00:15:05.449 --> 00:15:11.418
When you look at the S&P 500 over the past
12 months, that's done close to 19%.

290
00:15:11.730 --> 00:15:13.027
That's until the 2nd of February.

291
00:15:13.449 --> 00:15:15.558
19% in dollar terms.

292
00:15:16.011 --> 00:15:21.695
Over the same period, this index did minus
10.2%.

293
00:15:22.035 --> 00:15:23.379
Again, look at the discrepancy.

294
00:15:23.380 --> 00:15:26.277
We're looking at close to 30%
underperformances.

295
00:15:27.132 --> 00:15:29.855
You were invested in tech, but man, you
weren't invested.

296
00:15:30.375 --> 00:15:32.539
Then secondly, you've got the likes of the
NVIDIA.

297
00:15:33.738 --> 00:15:40.625
I was looking at upgrading one or two of
my home,

298
00:15:41.508 --> 00:15:47.289
which I'm now talking to you on, my home
PC, which I run my microphones and those

299
00:15:47.289 --> 00:15:49.289
kind of things off.

300
00:15:49.289 --> 00:15:51.289
Yes.

301
00:15:51.289 --> 00:15:54.304
And I went to my tech friend or tech
specialist.

302
00:15:54.652 --> 00:16:01.439
and ask him we need to upgrade a few
things on my my computer i need a bit more

303
00:16:01.439 --> 00:16:03.439
hard drive more space

304
00:16:03.439 --> 00:16:09.010
um and and maybe looking at a at a video
card because maybe that's time to upgrade

305
00:16:09.010 --> 00:16:11.010
and this

306
00:16:11.010 --> 00:16:13.431
would look and when when when

307
00:16:13.478 --> 00:16:20.463
your mechanic or your doctor or any of
those people go like or a sharpie and take

308
00:16:20.463 --> 00:16:22.463
a breath through their

309
00:16:22.463 --> 00:16:22.947
teeth that's the other one Ooh.

310
00:16:24.596 --> 00:16:26.978
I realized, okay, this is going to be big.

311
00:16:27.099 --> 00:16:33.724
And he went like, Scott, I mean,
literally, October, he said September,

312
00:16:33.763 --> 00:16:39.052
October-ish, he wanted a quote for a
specific hard drive.

313
00:16:39.693 --> 00:16:43.740
And he got a quote, and that quote was a
thousand rand for that specific hard

314
00:16:43.740 --> 00:16:43.971
drive.

315
00:16:44.490 --> 00:16:45.943
And nobody should quote me.

316
00:16:46.443 --> 00:16:47.724
I may be using the wrong analogy.

317
00:16:47.725 --> 00:16:49.505
It could be an SSD or something like that.

318
00:16:50.146 --> 00:16:52.568
I'm still calling it a hard drive.

319
00:16:52.662 --> 00:16:53.662
But it was a thousand rand.

320
00:16:53.972 --> 00:16:59.096
He says, Skog, I kid you not, that exact
same hard drive will cost you 3,000 Rand

321
00:16:59.096 --> 00:16:59.378
now.

322
00:16:59.479 --> 00:17:02.237
And that's the thing.

323
00:17:02.580 --> 00:17:07.002
There was such a massive, people, or at
least, they're selling,

324
00:17:07.026 --> 00:17:13.994
there's such a massive demand for these
hard drives because of cloud space,

325
00:17:14.088 --> 00:17:18.229
these cloud computers, which the AI will
need to run.

326
00:17:18.854 --> 00:17:23.338
Also, you can't run AI without having a
proper...

327
00:17:24.172 --> 00:17:30.958
video card or graphics card and that's
just when the likes and the videos and

328
00:17:30.958 --> 00:17:32.958
those people i'm coming but what's going
to be interesting when we

329
00:17:32.958 --> 00:17:37.926
see the result wait a second what are you
doing you're making films at home or

330
00:17:37.926 --> 00:17:39.926
something i thought you were what are you
using ai for why why do you

331
00:17:39.926 --> 00:17:41.286
you're not saying you need one of these
video cards are you

332
00:17:41.333 --> 00:17:48.176
no no no i need i need video cards because
if some things on on your computer tend

333
00:17:48.176 --> 00:17:50.176
when your computer

334
00:17:50.176 --> 00:17:53.223
starts running slower i've I actually
found out back in the days when computers

335
00:17:53.223 --> 00:17:55.223
started running slow.

336
00:17:55.223 --> 00:17:59.698
I'll get the tech guy out and say, well,
you just need more RAM or you need some

337
00:17:59.698 --> 00:18:01.698
more memory or something like that.

338
00:18:01.698 --> 00:18:03.698
You need a stronger computer.

339
00:18:03.698 --> 00:18:03.885
And then it's like, okay, get me a
stronger computer.

340
00:18:03.924 --> 00:18:09.862
Nowadays, it's not just about the computer
strength or, hey, now I'm going to sound

341
00:18:10.753 --> 00:18:14.971
CPU. It also needs to look at the GPU,
which is the graphics side.

342
00:18:16.018 --> 00:18:17.534
But I'm not going to go into the IT side.

343
00:18:18.081 --> 00:18:19.159
What I'm going to get to is...

344
00:18:19.920 --> 00:18:23.382
And what I'm going to be focusing on when
NVIDIA reports,

345
00:18:23.804 --> 00:18:30.554
because I think that's to a certain extent
why we haven't seen any movement in NVIDIA

346
00:18:30.554 --> 00:18:32.554
since the last

347
00:18:32.554 --> 00:18:34.554
report.

348
00:18:34.554 --> 00:18:36.554
Because the one thing that stood out was
the inventories.

349
00:18:36.554 --> 00:18:38.976
The inventories were showing an increase
since the last time reported.

350
00:18:39.664 --> 00:18:46.648
Why are your inventories increasing when
you're telling the whole world there's

351
00:18:46.648 --> 00:18:48.648
such a massive

352
00:18:48.648 --> 00:18:48.992
demand that there's not enough stock?

353
00:18:49.512 --> 00:18:56.319
for us to deliver and that's why my hard
drive will go up from a thousand rand to

354
00:18:56.319 --> 00:18:58.319
three thousand rand i i think

355
00:18:58.319 --> 00:19:03.764
um i think we're sitting with something in
in this let's call it global market that's

356
00:19:03.764 --> 00:19:05.764
that's also about to

357
00:19:05.764 --> 00:19:07.796
break that's the one thing i'm massively
worried about on

358
00:19:07.797 --> 00:19:14.358
the i.t side that this this this called ai
demand sort of created an artificial or or

359
00:19:14.514 --> 00:19:18.186
artificial, or sort of a manipulation of
prices.

360
00:19:18.900 --> 00:19:19.600
Very good.

361
00:19:19.600 --> 00:19:21.682
Yes, it has run a bit too far.

362
00:19:21.922 --> 00:19:26.891
And the other thing about it is, just like
Bitcoin, you say to someone, why are you

363
00:19:26.891 --> 00:19:28.891
buying Bitcoin?

364
00:19:28.891 --> 00:19:30.891
And they say, well, because it's going up.

365
00:19:30.891 --> 00:19:32.376
And it's the same thing with many
investors when it comes to AI.

366
00:19:32.454 --> 00:19:38.016
No one really understands the deeper side
of AI.

367
00:19:39.844 --> 00:19:42.657
I just saw one piece of, for example,

368
00:19:42.766 --> 00:19:47.422
legal software that has become obsolete
because of AI analysis of legal matters.

369
00:19:47.744 --> 00:19:53.328
That was links to how you introduced this
AI theme, you know, software companies

370
00:19:53.328 --> 00:19:55.328
coming under pressure.

371
00:19:55.328 --> 00:19:56.172
But there's a lot of misunderstanding.

372
00:19:56.430 --> 00:19:59.219
Same with cryptocurrencies.

373
00:19:59.220 --> 00:20:00.937
And we'll come to that in a second as
well.

374
00:20:01.641 --> 00:20:02.758
It is the five o'clock shadow.

375
00:20:02.797 --> 00:20:03.805
We've got to look at the JSC.

376
00:20:04.383 --> 00:20:06.180
Fish and chickens doing well today.

377
00:20:08.602 --> 00:20:11.867
Vodacom doing nothing as usual as its
utility.

378
00:20:12.360 --> 00:20:18.348
Give us a roundup of companies on the JSC
that made announcements, if you've looked

379
00:20:18.348 --> 00:20:20.348
at them, if you've had time.

380
00:20:20.348 --> 00:20:22.348
Yeah, I did.

381
00:20:22.348 --> 00:20:24.348
I did.

382
00:20:24.348 --> 00:20:26.348
I mean, and actually, I mean, chickens,
you're referring to rainbow chickens.

383
00:20:26.348 --> 00:20:28.269
Yeah, solid set of results, or let's call
it a trading statement,

384
00:20:29.910 --> 00:20:35.316
stating that the headline earnings per
share is going to be up anything between

385
00:20:35.566 --> 00:20:39.113
69.46 cents to 76.5.

386
00:20:39.657 --> 00:20:43.542
Now this is massive numbers, we're looking
at 95% or under 15%.

387
00:20:43.600 --> 00:20:44.300
Now,

388
00:20:44.804 --> 00:20:51.491
I think nobody should be focused too much
on those major numbers because when you

389
00:20:51.491 --> 00:20:53.491
look at chickens,

390
00:20:53.491 --> 00:20:54.710
the major cost input is naturally the
food.

391
00:20:55.734 --> 00:21:01.319
And when you look at the yellow maize
prices, that was trading, well, it's

392
00:21:01.319 --> 00:21:03.319
literally trading at about,

393
00:21:03.319 --> 00:21:08.045
let's call it 65, 70% of the levels it was
trading, let's call it last year,

394
00:21:08.069 --> 00:21:08.769
this time around.

395
00:21:08.769 --> 00:21:13.358
So we've had a massive retracement in the
food, so the input cost decreased.

396
00:21:13.639 --> 00:21:19.342
So it went from a perfect storm to a much
better and a better environment.

397
00:21:19.343 --> 00:21:21.217
So that's just a great recovery.

398
00:21:22.108 --> 00:21:24.889
but also they did mention that

399
00:21:25.527 --> 00:21:29.592
the local demand for their products did
increase as well.

400
00:21:29.752 --> 00:21:31.151
They call it robust demand.

401
00:21:31.252 --> 00:21:35.358
So that's looking good and that's a great,
great...

402
00:21:35.717 --> 00:21:37.076
Good because it's been such a dog.

403
00:21:37.154 --> 00:21:37.959
I mean, it really has.

404
00:21:37.960 --> 00:21:42.600
I haven't looked at it for quite a while,
but I remember the days when you couldn't

405
00:21:42.600 --> 00:21:44.600
give away those shares.

406
00:21:44.600 --> 00:21:44.803
So nice to see that recovering.

407
00:21:45.209 --> 00:21:46.428
Sea Harvest also doing well.

408
00:21:46.429 --> 00:21:51.053
You don't need to go into that, but also
nice to see that one after a trading

409
00:21:51.053 --> 00:21:53.053
update.

410
00:21:53.053 --> 00:21:53.131
Vodacom trading update.

411
00:21:53.428 --> 00:21:54.162
Gosh, I don't know.

412
00:21:54.998 --> 00:22:01.844
When I think of Vodacom, and I can't even
be bothered to read the results, it sounds

413
00:22:01.844 --> 00:22:03.844
nasty and dismissive, but it's really
boring.

414
00:22:03.844 --> 00:22:09.911
Yeah, I think we've had, it was Vodacom,

415
00:22:10.309 --> 00:22:11.934
and also RCL Foods.

416
00:22:12.528 --> 00:22:15.872
How can we put this politely?

417
00:22:16.044 --> 00:22:21.840
It was a bitter, bitter, bitter update.

418
00:22:22.282 --> 00:22:26.222
Because, yeah, they say they're really
struggling with the sugar market.

419
00:22:28.183 --> 00:22:29.863
It's giving them gray hair.

420
00:22:30.023 --> 00:22:35.628
And that saw a major retracement in the
share price of the trading update.

421
00:22:36.284 --> 00:22:37.527
They're really struggling.

422
00:22:38.089 --> 00:22:45.003
And they said that the sugar tariffs
didn't adequately shield them in local

423
00:22:45.003 --> 00:22:47.003
market currently with

424
00:22:47.003 --> 00:22:49.003
these imports.

425
00:22:49.003 --> 00:22:50.566
So the Vodacom one is an interesting one,
Lindsay.

426
00:22:50.567 --> 00:22:51.267
Yeah, it's...

427
00:22:51.678 --> 00:22:58.426
It's interesting in the sense that it's
also a company that's not really

428
00:22:58.426 --> 00:23:00.426
attracting my

429
00:23:00.426 --> 00:23:02.426
interest.

430
00:23:02.426 --> 00:23:04.426
I'm really worried.

431
00:23:04.426 --> 00:23:06.426
We've often had this conversation.

432
00:23:06.426 --> 00:23:07.016
They're selling a product, and not just
Vodacom, I mean these telcos.

433
00:23:07.336 --> 00:23:11.297
They're selling a product in essence that
people want for free.

434
00:23:11.703 --> 00:23:14.625
And I think and believe that eventually
we'll get for free.

435
00:23:15.000 --> 00:23:18.578
I mean, that's just the harsh reality.

436
00:23:18.609 --> 00:23:20.406
I mean, they're selling things like...

437
00:23:22.136 --> 00:23:28.181
call, airtime, which people don't really
often buy anymore,

438
00:23:28.423 --> 00:23:30.364
and they're selling data, which people
want for free.

439
00:23:31.583 --> 00:23:33.724
And they get for free in certain
instances, don't they?

440
00:23:33.725 --> 00:23:35.732
Exactly, exactly, exactly.

441
00:23:36.247 --> 00:23:42.028
And then also, you're sitting in an
environment where we're sitting with a few

442
00:23:42.028 --> 00:23:44.028
providers.

443
00:23:44.028 --> 00:23:47.138
I mean, in a smallish country like South
Africa, compared to the world,

444
00:23:47.778 --> 00:23:49.903
we've got quite a few providers.

445
00:23:50.954 --> 00:23:56.819
The competition in that market, I think,
is going to be a tough one.

446
00:23:59.304 --> 00:24:01.827
I said this is going to be sort of a sweet
and sour conversation.

447
00:24:04.304 --> 00:24:09.640
The sweet side is when we think of 2025,

448
00:24:09.718 --> 00:24:13.921
we tend to be focused on, oh, it was the
year for gold.

449
00:24:14.577 --> 00:24:16.593
It was the year for the PGMs.

450
00:24:17.765 --> 00:24:19.483
But when you look at the top 15...

451
00:24:20.246 --> 00:24:25.792
you tend to forget that MTN was in the top
15, Telcom was in the top 15,

452
00:24:26.171 --> 00:24:27.815
Vodacom was in the top 15.

453
00:24:28.495 --> 00:24:34.237
So, yes, these companies did really,
really well because they came from very,

454
00:24:34.440 --> 00:24:38.409
very distressed and called it deep, deep
value levels.

455
00:24:39.347 --> 00:24:44.128
And they just did the basics right, got a
few things right,

456
00:24:44.644 --> 00:24:47.018
and that saw them...

457
00:24:47.430 --> 00:24:48.131
actually improved.

458
00:24:48.472 --> 00:24:51.954
When you look at the likes of Vodacom,
they're still trading at a forward P of 13

459
00:24:51.954 --> 00:24:51.974
times.

460
00:24:51.974 --> 00:24:54.876
So they're not really expensive.

461
00:24:55.298 --> 00:24:59.040
And when you look at this, it's called a
trading update from them,

462
00:25:00.063 --> 00:25:05.493
it does sort of support why we've seen the
recovery in the share price.

463
00:25:05.587 --> 00:25:12.134
So it's quietly going about its business
when everyone else is focused on what

464
00:25:12.134 --> 00:25:14.134
we've been focused on for ages, and that
is precious metals, other commodities,

465
00:25:14.134 --> 00:25:16.181
and also artificial intelligence and other
associated tech companies.

466
00:25:16.182 --> 00:25:16.882
So well done.

467
00:25:17.406 --> 00:25:23.173
to those telcos that have quietly, well,
certainly not been on my radar at all, and

468
00:25:23.173 --> 00:25:25.173
I must start looking at it again.

469
00:25:25.173 --> 00:25:28.318
I mustn't be so myopic, Skull, and I blame
you in a certain sense for this.

470
00:25:29.115 --> 00:25:29.935
Exactly.

471
00:25:29.936 --> 00:25:31.201
I'm always talking about gold.

472
00:25:31.341 --> 00:25:32.623
I'm always talking about gold.

473
00:25:32.802 --> 00:25:37.224
I never focus on the important stuff of
the other JSC companies.

474
00:25:37.412 --> 00:25:38.662
I just want to end off with a comment.

475
00:25:38.663 --> 00:25:42.005
I think the one thing that stood out for
me, and I've often said this,

476
00:25:43.052 --> 00:25:45.740
there's selling a product which people
don't want to pay for.

477
00:25:45.741 --> 00:25:46.677
We've already said that.

478
00:25:47.927 --> 00:25:52.871
And that's why when you look at the likes
of I think it was David Shapiro today that

479
00:25:52.871 --> 00:25:52.970
mentioned it.

480
00:25:53.172 --> 00:25:58.078
When you look at the likes of a Pepco,
they're selling products that people do

481
00:25:58.078 --> 00:25:58.216
like.

482
00:25:59.513 --> 00:26:03.332
They add in these telco products as well.

483
00:26:03.774 --> 00:26:08.457
So the problem is with Vodacom is they're
selling a product eventually people want

484
00:26:08.457 --> 00:26:10.457
to get for free.

485
00:26:10.457 --> 00:26:12.457
What are they going to focus on?

486
00:26:12.457 --> 00:26:13.598
Now, this is where I actually like the
trading up topic.

487
00:26:13.614 --> 00:26:19.801
So I already mentioned that the financial
services side within Vodacom is now

488
00:26:19.801 --> 00:26:21.801
contributing

489
00:26:21.801 --> 00:26:23.801
13% of the group's revenue.

490
00:26:23.801 --> 00:26:26.922
It's showing you that those fintech type
of products which… the likes of the

491
00:26:27.342 --> 00:26:33.329
Vodacom's, the MTN's, even Telcom's offer
is now starting to kick in.

492
00:26:33.548 --> 00:26:39.618
Will it kick in quick enough while you've
got a product that will eventually lose

493
00:26:39.618 --> 00:26:41.618
its profit margins?

494
00:26:41.618 --> 00:26:43.618
That'll be the big question.

495
00:26:43.618 --> 00:26:46.915
As I mentioned, it's not a company that I
own, and most probably not a company that

496
00:26:46.915 --> 00:26:48.915
I will own anytime soon.

497
00:26:48.915 --> 00:26:49.102
Scott, let's have a look at some numbers
now.

498
00:26:50.017 --> 00:26:52.738
The dollar round is 16.01.

499
00:26:52.739 --> 00:26:54.740
The British pound against the round,
21.90.

500
00:26:54.759 --> 00:26:56.357
The euro round, 18.90.

501
00:26:56.380 --> 00:26:57.080
Euro dollar.

502
00:26:57.638 --> 00:27:02.579
Again, they've cut off those last two
numbers on my screen, but it's 1.18 and a

503
00:27:02.579 --> 00:27:04.579
bit, let's call it.

504
00:27:04.579 --> 00:27:08.376
Gold price now 49.56, which is up on the
day, $17.

505
00:27:08.501 --> 00:27:15.361
But as the JSC closes, on its lows of the
day, more or less, because it was 5,050,

506
00:27:15.361 --> 00:27:17.361
as I said,

507
00:27:17.361 --> 00:27:19.361
about an hour ago now.

508
00:27:19.361 --> 00:27:21.361
So it's fallen $100.

509
00:27:21.361 --> 00:27:23.361
But we're used to that.

510
00:27:23.361 --> 00:27:24.474
The platinum price is 2240, which is up
6.5%.

511
00:27:24.615 --> 00:27:25.315
Well done.

512
00:27:25.514 --> 00:27:27.939
Palladium 1791, which is up 5%.

513
00:27:28.939 --> 00:27:29.978
Gong for that one as well.

514
00:27:30.822 --> 00:27:32.299
Let's have a look at the other
commodities.

515
00:27:32.681 --> 00:27:36.400
Looking at that CRB index the other day,
we were talking about the all-time record

516
00:27:36.400 --> 00:27:36.631
high.

517
00:27:36.666 --> 00:27:37.463
Got close to it.

518
00:27:37.650 --> 00:27:40.494
Got to about 405, 406.

519
00:27:41.353 --> 00:27:43.900
No, closer, 407 actually, a couple of days
ago.

520
00:27:44.072 --> 00:27:46.010
Now back down to 390.

521
00:27:46.301 --> 00:27:48.063
The oil price, a lot to do with that.

522
00:27:48.204 --> 00:27:52.368
Oil price now up 0.5% for West Texas at
$63.54.

523
00:27:52.369 --> 00:27:55.993
And the Brent crude oil price, $67.66, up
0.5%.

524
00:27:55.994 --> 00:28:02.845
Copper is $5.98 per pound, and that's down
1.8%.

525
00:28:02.846 --> 00:28:05.954
Suddenly started to fall, as gold has
started to fall as well.

526
00:28:06.501 --> 00:28:12.923
Silver, though, still up for $88.61 per
barrel, up 4.2%.

527
00:28:12.970 --> 00:28:14.563
OK, what else have we got here?

528
00:28:15.101 --> 00:28:21.546
I want to go to the US 10-year Treasury
bond yield, quietly doing its thing as I

529
00:28:21.546 --> 00:28:23.546
told you last year.

530
00:28:23.546 --> 00:28:25.953
Scalp 4.282% was 4.30 yesterday.

531
00:28:26.289 --> 00:28:32.617
The South African 10-year bond just
couldn't get through 8% today, 8.055 on

532
00:28:32.617 --> 00:28:34.617
the close.

533
00:28:34.617 --> 00:28:38.898
S&P 500 futures 69.32, down very slightly,
reversing earlier gains.

534
00:28:39.492 --> 00:28:42.445
And here's the one that has interested me,
another call of ours, Scalp.

535
00:28:43.117 --> 00:28:49.924
Bitcoin, 74,800, down another 4.3% today.

536
00:28:50.326 --> 00:28:54.287
And it's now 40% lower than its peak in
October.

537
00:28:54.389 --> 00:28:59.693
So a proper bear market for Bitcoin,
Ethereum, Doge, the whole lot.

538
00:28:59.959 --> 00:29:03.115
Across the board, crypto is having a
torrid time.

539
00:29:03.303 --> 00:29:04.037
Sorry, Donald.

540
00:29:05.162 --> 00:29:07.084
I won't get political about it, but I'd
love to.

541
00:29:08.099 --> 00:29:12.287
Do we buy when it gets back to $6,000 this
time around?

542
00:29:13.914 --> 00:29:14.693
It would be nice.

543
00:29:14.694 --> 00:29:20.673
I mean, even I could probably afford to,
you know, with a couple of mates to buy

544
00:29:20.673 --> 00:29:22.673
one and just put it on the wall or
something.

545
00:29:22.673 --> 00:29:24.673
And people would say, what is that there?

546
00:29:24.673 --> 00:29:26.673
Bit what?

547
00:29:26.673 --> 00:29:28.673
I'd say Bitcoin.

548
00:29:28.673 --> 00:29:30.673
That was a big thing when I was still a
podcaster.

549
00:29:30.673 --> 00:29:32.673
Obsolete now, of course.

550
00:29:32.673 --> 00:29:34.673
Right.

551
00:29:34.673 --> 00:29:36.673
Now, what else have we got?

552
00:29:36.673 --> 00:29:38.673
Okay.

553
00:29:38.673 --> 00:29:40.673
The moves on the JSC today.

554
00:29:40.673 --> 00:29:42.673
I'll start with the uppers.

555
00:29:42.673 --> 00:29:44.673
Sasol.

556
00:29:44.673 --> 00:29:46.673
It was looking horrible a few days ago.

557
00:29:46.673 --> 00:29:48.673
Now up 6% on the day.

558
00:29:48.673 --> 00:29:50.673
114, round 75.

559
00:29:50.673 --> 00:29:52.673
South 32, up 4.2%.

560
00:29:52.673 --> 00:29:54.673
Anglo Gold, 4.2% as well.

561
00:29:54.673 --> 00:29:56.673
Alphamin up 4.4%.

562
00:29:56.673 --> 00:29:58.673
And Mondi coming in with a 4% gain.

563
00:29:58.673 --> 00:30:00.673
We didn't talk about Sappy's numbers
today, Skulk, but don't worry about that.

564
00:30:00.673 --> 00:30:02.369
Process on the downside by 4.6%. Bytes a
4% loser.

565
00:30:02.759 --> 00:30:04.025
NASPERS down 3.2%.

566
00:30:04.603 --> 00:30:06.775
Italtile 3.2% as well.

567
00:30:07.169 --> 00:30:08.891
And three and a third percent down is Sun.

568
00:30:09.131 --> 00:30:09.831
Any others?

569
00:30:10.212 --> 00:30:11.932
Scott?

570
00:30:12.014 --> 00:30:12.913
No, not, not.

571
00:30:13.553 --> 00:30:18.280
It's just, while you were talking about
the gold price now retracing,

572
00:30:19.038 --> 00:30:24.038
it's become sort of a common trend where
you see the east in the morning.

573
00:30:24.381 --> 00:30:28.272
They sort of push these precious metals
upward.

574
00:30:28.913 --> 00:30:33.569
And then you see as soon as the US starts
opening, it starts dwindling downwards.

575
00:30:33.663 --> 00:30:35.960
It's definitely, definitely some east and
west.

576
00:30:37.046 --> 00:30:44.019
competition here on trying to see who's
going to keep the gold price and silver

577
00:30:44.019 --> 00:30:46.019
price up and who's going to be smashing it
down

578
00:30:46.019 --> 00:30:48.019
with.

579
00:30:48.019 --> 00:30:50.019
Yeah, it's crazy times.

580
00:30:50.019 --> 00:30:51.772
But one of the things I'm not going to do,
by the way, is predict anything else for

581
00:30:51.772 --> 00:30:53.772
the rest of the year.

582
00:30:53.772 --> 00:30:55.772
Not unless it's clear.

583
00:30:55.772 --> 00:30:58.795
If you go to a drinks party or something,
Skulk, this is my tip here.

584
00:30:59.022 --> 00:31:02.202
And what happens at drinks parties is you
get sort of groups of people, don't you?

585
00:31:02.248 --> 00:31:05.248
You get three or four standing around
talking nonsense.

586
00:31:05.545 --> 00:31:09.452
They may be doctors, and then over there
you've got the financial people like

587
00:31:09.452 --> 00:31:11.452
yourself all talking.

588
00:31:11.452 --> 00:31:15.414
If you make a joke and make people laugh
uproariously, Skulk, just immediately,

589
00:31:15.414 --> 00:31:17.414
Say,

590
00:31:17.414 --> 00:31:18.695
I'm going to go to the bathroom and leave.

591
00:31:19.855 --> 00:31:21.254
Don't try and make another joke.

592
00:31:21.496 --> 00:31:23.152
It's the same with tipping markets.

593
00:31:23.153 --> 00:31:24.918
I'm not picking.

594
00:31:24.919 --> 00:31:25.918
You're not a comedian.

595
00:31:25.933 --> 00:31:27.316
You're not a comedian.

596
00:31:27.317 --> 00:31:28.019
You got lucky.

597
00:31:28.020 --> 00:31:29.355
I'm not picking exactly.

598
00:31:29.433 --> 00:31:30.133
I'm out of here.

599
00:31:31.965 --> 00:31:33.230
Just like my gold call.

600
00:31:33.231 --> 00:31:36.074
I'm going to take that tip.

601
00:31:36.402 --> 00:31:39.652
Well, that's a funny one.

602
00:31:41.105 --> 00:31:43.418
Skulklo is a portfolio manager at...

603
00:31:44.062 --> 00:31:47.667
PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town and that
was the five o'clock shadow.

604
00:31:48.186 --> 00:31:55.155
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

605
00:31:55.155 --> 00:31:57.155
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

606
00:31:57.155 --> 00:31:58.897
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

607
00:31:59.217 --> 00:32:03.866
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

608
00:32:04.319 --> 00:32:11.303
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

609
00:32:11.303 --> 00:32:13.303
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

610
00:32:13.303 --> 00:32:15.303
And since we are critically...

611
00:32:15.303 --> 00:32:19.597
thinking human beings, these views are
always subject to change, revision and

612
00:32:19.597 --> 00:32:21.597
rethinking at any time.

613
00:32:21.597 --> 00:32:22.319
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
