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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager, PSG Wealth,

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Old Oak Division, Cape Town.

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What a time.

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What a time to be alive.

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What a time to be a gold trader, investor.

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What a time to be an investor in any of
the asset classes that we usually talk

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about, Skulk.

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Yeah, I mean, what?

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What can we say?

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Every week we sort of say, is this it?

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And then we say, no, it's just crazy.

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$2,000 per ounce.

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And then we went through that and we still
made the joke.

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I think that same day when it broke to
$2,000 and we said, I still ask you,

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remember the days when it was trading
below $2,000?

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And we still laughed.

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Maybe too soon.

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And I mean, so we...

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broke through the $3,000, $4,000.

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And, I mean, we still choked, I think, a
week, no, two weeks ago, two weeks ago,

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that's the last time we chatted,

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about some of these economists and
analysts and people now, you know, coming

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forward and saying, big houses,

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I think it was Bank of America that came
out two weeks ago stating, no, they're

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adjusting their forecast, $5,000.

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And boom, it didn't take two weeks for us
to pass that.

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And now I see a few reports stating that.

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$6,000 is just going to be easy.

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This year, and I've got another one that
says $10,000 is the target.

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You can pick a number, basically.

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My worry is that Donald Trump will
suddenly wake up and say, wait a second,

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I've got 8,000 tons of this stuff.

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Let's offload a bit so we can do some of
the things that will win me the midterms.

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But that's just the wildest of scenarios.

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I will say this now, and this is the first
time I'm going to say it and the last time

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I'm going to say it.

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because I'll be shot down.

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The gold price peaked this morning, and
I'll tell you why.

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I know.

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Sit down.

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I am sitting.

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Have another sip.

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Now, what I want you to do is listen to me
carefully.

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It's based on nothing.

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The fundamentals are great.

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The dollar is going to continue to be
debased.

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The bond market is going to come under
pressure.

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Equities are going to come under pressure,
and gold will still be a safe haven.

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Inflation will run away.

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Look at the CRB index, 399.

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Highest level since it was, as you said
off air to me cleverly,

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459 back in 2008 after the global
financial crisis.

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But anyway, on my 10-year graph, it's at
an all-time high.

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So that's inflationary.

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So all this will come together for gold.

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But if you look at one of the tried and
trusted technical analysis methods,

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when there used to be the old days of
open, high, low, close bar graphs.

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and there weren't 24-hour markets when
there was a civilized gold market that

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opened at one time and

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closed at another in New York, you would
get gaps in the chart.

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Let's say the market like it did on last
Friday closed

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4,980, something like that.

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Well, that was the high.

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And then the next day it opened close to
5,100.

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So there was a gap.

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And then there's been another gap and
another gap.

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These three gaps are...

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The breakaway gap, the first one.

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The runaway gap, the second one.

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The exhaustion gap, the third one.

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And I don't know if there has been a gap
because I can't for the life of me find a

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chart that has an opening and a closing

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a market.

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But I think there's been three gaps.

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I think today was the exhaustion gap.

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And I do think that after the Fed decision
tonight, everyone's going to go, OK,

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and start selling some of these asset
classes that have served them so well.

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I've said my piece, Skullclaw.

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You heard it here first.

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Or it will just continue running.

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That was Skullclaw from PSG.

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No, I mean, Lindsay, I think I've had this
question a few times, not just today, but

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the past few days.

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And you and I, I mean, this is a listening
podcast, so people luckily can't see what

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I look like now.

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I think you look very well.

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I'd like to see a pre and post gold bull
market picture.

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But anyway, carry on.

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You know, we've got both a few grey hairs.

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So we've seen a few things.

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And the one thing that I tell all my
clients and all the people that ask me,

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the one thing that these type of rallies
has taught me over the years is not to

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call

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tops.

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No.

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That's it.

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That's it.

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I think personally, if you ask me, do I
think these levels are totally overdone?

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And when I talk about these levels, I'm
talking about gold.

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I'm talking about silver.

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I'm talking about, I mean, I'm looking at
the silver price.

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But it's just crazy.

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And people are talking about not.

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The hundreds of $50 or $200, they're
talking about $400.

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That's going to be easy, $400 per ounce on
silver.

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That's massive, massive gains.

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And who am I to jump in front of this
freight train?

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I mean, it's going at about a gazillion
miles per hour.

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I'm not going to be jumping in front of
this thing for now.

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And you also, while we were off here, you
were talking about somewhere along the

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line, they were going to be selling them.

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They've got over 8,000 tons of this stuff.

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Yeah, it's got a massive amount.

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But that was just a side conspiracy sort
of theory.

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What would Donald Trump do?

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He's the sort of person that would say,
OK, it's sitting there doing absolutely

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nothing,

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apart from backing the dollar to a certain
extent, of course.

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We haven't got a gold standard anymore.

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But the fact that that stuff is there is a
support for the US economy and the dollar,

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in my opinion.

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But, yeah, don't worry about Donald Trump
and his gold reserves.

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Let's talk about what you're invested in.

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We've never really mentioned it, but I
think you're mainly in equities, aren't

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you?

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You're not in ETFs or bullion itself.

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Can you tell us?

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Are you allowed to tell me?

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Yeah, I'll tell you.

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I'll tell you.

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I mean, it's easy because I've been quite
verbal about this and seeing that I

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haven't sold anything yet.

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Well done.

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It's people can sort of go and...

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reference things I said previously.

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So, I mean, on the local front, I'm still
invested in gold fields.

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And I mean, you and I are at the
interesting conversation.

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And great question there.

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I mean, I'm going to, actually, I actually
want to read this question to the

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listeners.

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And I need to really filter through
Lindsay's because sometimes his WhatsApp

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is not.

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Well, I was sitting in the
physiotherapist's waiting room and I

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didn't have my glasses with me, so I kept
on missing out letters.

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I totally understood you.

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So he said, hi,

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can you look at a South African gold miner
and PGM miner and work out the dollar

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margins

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at these levels?

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So I had a look at it.

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And great question, Lindsay.

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I mean, what a question.

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I sort of...

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mind-boggled today when I looked at ASML's
profit margins and are they talking about

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51

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and 52 percent those are the top of profit
margins these these companies are you're

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talking about the tech

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you're talking about the tech company
based in Eindhoven in the Netherlands okay

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so get you to give some sort of context to
what you're gonna say now about

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the miners that's it and and you know the
likes of the NVIDIA's are running at

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similar profit margins gross profit
margins.

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But I mean, this is This is our tech
companies.

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When I look at the, let's call it the most
recent results, and

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I use gold fields now again, and I'll do,
just for fun, I'll do Anglo Gold as well.

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Gold fields, when they reported their
six-month ended results for June, so they

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haven't done December yet.

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If you look at the sales and you look at
the average gold price, which they mined

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on that stage, I think it was something
like 1,000.

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$1,900 or something like that, which was
the all-in cost.

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If you look at the actual growth profit
margin back then, it was just shy of 55%

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because we had such a massive run in the
gold price.

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So I asked my team just to have a look,

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and they looked at the average gold price
over that period for that, let's call it

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six months.

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And I just said, well, let's use the
$5,260, which is now.

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If this is going to be the norm, the
growth profit margin is going to increase

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from

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54.7% to 72.8%.

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Goodness me.

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That's a money printing machine.

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I mean, Anglo Gold, similar story, went
from 47.3%

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and at current gold price levels, that
will increase to 68%.

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I mean, that is literally, as I mentioned,
a money printing machine.

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And yeah.

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I'm still invested in gold fields,

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so this is still my preferred entry into
the local gold miners.

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And in my international portfolio, I've
got a investment in wheat and precious

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metals,

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which is predominantly gold.

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They sort of assist the gold.

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It's a very interesting structure.

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I'm not going to go into this because
otherwise this is going to be an hour

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podcast again.

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But both of these companies have been…

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or miners has been doing doing really
really well uh and so i like the geared

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effect

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and also if you can recall i think it was
about a year ago i told you the gold

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miners lagged the actual gold price yes

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and and for that reason i i

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did prefer to rather go into the miners
that did catch up naturally but i mean as

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i mentioned at at 70

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odd percentage uh growth profit margins i
will not be selling this is going to be

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companies that's going to be either

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paying a heap of dividends very, very
soon, or going to start looking at other

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opportunities,

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buying back shares and those kind of
things.

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So, yeah, very, very,

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very happy to still be in.

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And I think you asked for the PGMs while
we're on that topic.

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Yeah, because they haven't been lagging.

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They're just coming a little bit late to
the party.

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But when I look at these things, And when
I look at the lack of investment in South

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African mines and the low stockpiles and
everything,

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and there's going to be a deficit this
year and maybe next year as well,

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I can't help but think that these things
are relatively thin because there's not

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much metal produced.

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And if you take the market capitalization
of any company that produces platinum

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group metals and

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its associated spin-offs, it's very small.

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It can be not manipulated, but it can be
pushed very high.

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very, very quickly.

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I mean, even higher than it is now, of
course.

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Yeah, no, no, no, for sure.

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For sure.

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I mean, but I mean, just I ran through
that one as well.

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I ran through the platinum minus.

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I chose Volterra because it's the bigger
one, and I like the way they report.

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And just to, again, put some context to
some of the listeners out there,

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when we sat here exactly a year ago, We
already had a sort of a gold frenzy.

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It didn't start in the beginning of 2025.

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This has been a bull run going on, you
know, since just post-COVID.

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Yes, it did.

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The aggression of the moves has been
really increased a lot.

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But the gold price was already, you know,

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doing extremely well this time last year.

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This time...

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00:12:09.263 --> 00:12:14.826
last year, the platinum price was still
very much the $950 level.

241
00:12:14.827 --> 00:12:15.527
Exactly.

242
00:12:15.827 --> 00:12:17.608
It was lagging, yes.

243
00:12:17.609 --> 00:12:23.351
Yes, and only started, if you really go
and look at that graph, actually, I

244
00:12:23.351 --> 00:12:25.351
actually got the graph now.

245
00:12:25.351 --> 00:12:28.814
May the 19th, it was still below $1,000,
still trading $900 odd dollars.

246
00:12:29.054 --> 00:12:30.515
And from there, it moved.

247
00:12:30.715 --> 00:12:37.419
So when you take Volterra's growth profit
margin for the six-month end it again, 30

248
00:12:37.419 --> 00:12:37.578
June.

249
00:12:37.578 --> 00:12:38.120
So that's.

250
00:12:38.163 --> 00:12:43.145
Very much still prior to the platinum,
palladium, rhodium prices started to move,

251
00:12:44.086 --> 00:12:48.008
the growth profit margins was trading at
12.1%.

252
00:12:48.009 --> 00:12:54.671
Now, if you take their mix, and they've
got a mixture of 44% platinum, 22%

253
00:12:54.671 --> 00:12:56.671
palladium, and 34%

254
00:12:56.671 --> 00:12:57.712
rhodium, that's as 30 June,

255
00:12:58.612 --> 00:13:02.594
their growth profit margin now will kick
up to 53%.

256
00:13:02.654 --> 00:13:03.975
And so that's also...

257
00:13:05.043 --> 00:13:06.685
You know, it's very glamorous.

258
00:13:06.805 --> 00:13:10.068
It's very glamorous compared to the
doldrums that this thing has been in.

259
00:13:10.688 --> 00:13:17.014
Year on year, the platinum price,
incidentally, up 170%, 27%

260
00:13:17.134 --> 00:13:18.034
year to date.

261
00:13:19.316 --> 00:13:22.298
But I'm just going to get my graph up as I
look at this.

262
00:13:22.299 --> 00:13:27.022
$2,630 an ounce is the prevailing price.

263
00:13:28.623 --> 00:13:29.324
Has been high.

264
00:13:29.344 --> 00:13:30.044
Look at that.

265
00:13:30.044 --> 00:13:32.427
I didn't notice that spike it had, too.

266
00:13:32.823 --> 00:13:37.045
What was that, about 2,800, 2,850,
something like that, recently?

267
00:13:37.125 --> 00:13:38.365
But anyway, it's back a bit.

268
00:13:38.866 --> 00:13:42.387
And 10 years, 10 years, let's go for 10
years.

269
00:13:42.827 --> 00:13:43.527
Just trying to see.

270
00:13:43.848 --> 00:13:45.528
This is an all-time record high, isn't it?

271
00:13:47.469 --> 00:13:48.349
Yes, yes, yes.

272
00:13:48.570 --> 00:13:49.930
That's for the white metals.

273
00:13:50.430 --> 00:13:51.531
And that thing took off.

274
00:13:51.831 --> 00:13:52.931
The base is these.

275
00:13:53.892 --> 00:13:59.914
Let's say that Elon Musk or someone else
comes up with some pill that will mean

276
00:13:59.914 --> 00:14:01.914
that you can live

277
00:14:01.914 --> 00:14:03.914
for 500 years or something.

278
00:14:03.914 --> 00:14:04.369
It's a terrifying prospect, but it will
happen.

279
00:14:04.709 --> 00:14:09.073
I don't know what sort of state you'll be
in in 500 years, but you can wait.

280
00:14:09.153 --> 00:14:10.794
And all you have to do is wait a long
time.

281
00:14:10.814 --> 00:14:17.760
You have a look at something like silver
or platinum, where the market goes

282
00:14:17.760 --> 00:14:19.760
sideways, doesn't do anything for,

283
00:14:19.760 --> 00:14:19.922
I don't know, five years, ten years.

284
00:14:19.923 --> 00:14:21.824
I'm looking at this platinum chart back
in.

285
00:14:22.184 --> 00:14:28.649
It essentially went sideways from February
2016 to

286
00:14:29.210 --> 00:14:30.331
the takeoff point.

287
00:14:31.291 --> 00:14:34.012
which you just talked about May of this
year.

288
00:14:34.313 --> 00:14:37.914
So nine years of doing absolutely nothing.

289
00:14:38.094 --> 00:14:42.576
A couple of little blips here and there,
but the blips were always smoothed out.

290
00:14:42.596 --> 00:14:49.559
So a smoothing thing is around about
1,000, 900 to 1,000 for all that time, and

291
00:14:49.559 --> 00:14:51.559
nothing happens.

292
00:14:51.559 --> 00:14:52.602
Options are granted above the market.

293
00:14:52.702 --> 00:14:54.423
Options are granted below the market.

294
00:14:54.463 --> 00:14:56.544
And as soon as it takes off, people
scramble.

295
00:14:56.845 --> 00:14:58.466
The fundamentals suddenly change.

296
00:14:58.726 --> 00:14:59.426
And off we go.

297
00:14:59.426 --> 00:15:00.307
And that's what's happening now.

298
00:15:00.627 --> 00:15:01.327
Where can it go?

299
00:15:01.788 --> 00:15:02.488
I don't know.

300
00:15:02.488 --> 00:15:03.549
It's blue sky on this one.

301
00:15:03.950 --> 00:15:04.650
It really is.

302
00:15:04.650 --> 00:15:11.035
If the world economy keeps on going with
its status as an industrial metal, the

303
00:15:11.035 --> 00:15:13.035
PGMs in general,

304
00:15:13.035 --> 00:15:15.035
it could go anywhere, Skulk.

305
00:15:15.035 --> 00:15:17.035
It could go anywhere.

306
00:15:17.035 --> 00:15:19.035
Have you got exposure to this as well?

307
00:15:19.035 --> 00:15:21.035
Oh, yes.

308
00:15:21.035 --> 00:15:23.035
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

309
00:15:23.035 --> 00:15:25.035
I've got it.

310
00:15:25.035 --> 00:15:27.035
But I mentioned that back then as well.

311
00:15:27.035 --> 00:15:29.035
I do have Impala Platinum and Volterra,
both of them.

312
00:15:29.035 --> 00:15:31.035
Originally, I only had Impala Platinum.

313
00:15:31.035 --> 00:15:32.388
But then luckily, luckily, when Volterra
were kicked out of Anglo-American,

314
00:15:33.388 --> 00:15:38.031
I decided to, rather than selling that
little position, to increase it.

315
00:15:38.071 --> 00:15:39.611
That wasn't luck.

316
00:15:39.612 --> 00:15:40.312
That was skill.

317
00:15:40.312 --> 00:15:41.312
What are you talking about?

318
00:15:41.412 --> 00:15:42.112
That little position.

319
00:15:42.112 --> 00:15:42.813
Yeah, yeah.

320
00:15:42.814 --> 00:15:44.454
But we also had the discussion back then.

321
00:15:44.714 --> 00:15:48.036
It was mainly due to the fact that we had
the overhang of stock.

322
00:15:48.636 --> 00:15:51.717
And Volterra back then was sort of, I
would say,

323
00:15:53.218 --> 00:15:57.040
unfairly punished for the overhanging
stock.

324
00:15:57.080 --> 00:15:59.661
And I used that opportunity to buy into
it.

325
00:15:59.701 --> 00:16:00.561
But here's the thing.

326
00:16:00.661 --> 00:16:04.062
I think a lot of listeners will look at
that and say, Scott, well, that's my dad.

327
00:16:04.142 --> 00:16:05.583
I mean, he's also you know my dad.

328
00:16:05.703 --> 00:16:07.684
I mean, he's also in the investment
industry.

329
00:16:08.364 --> 00:16:15.227
And he'll always when you did something
right, and then he'll sort of say with a

330
00:16:15.227 --> 00:16:17.227
question mark, and for my next trick.

331
00:16:17.227 --> 00:16:17.428
Yes.

332
00:16:17.428 --> 00:16:23.651
So, And to the listeners, I think we're
the listeners are listening today and say,

333
00:16:23.651 --> 00:16:25.651
what do I do?

334
00:16:25.651 --> 00:16:29.655
So I'm not selling my gold yet, but I do
have a different style of investing.

335
00:16:29.695 --> 00:16:31.156
I'm a long-term investor.

336
00:16:31.736 --> 00:16:36.019
And for this, I didn't bait the firm, so
to speak.

337
00:16:36.059 --> 00:16:40.421
I do have overweight positions in gold and
PGMs. But

338
00:16:41.001 --> 00:16:47.681
I'm not a if the gold price should go back
to $3,500, I will still be happy.

339
00:16:48.161 --> 00:16:51.302
But here's the thing, and we talked about
our gray hair.

340
00:16:53.083 --> 00:16:59.686
Last time we saw something like this, and
you mentioned it earlier, you talked about

341
00:16:59.686 --> 00:17:01.686
the CRB Commodity Index,

342
00:17:01.686 --> 00:17:02.847
which hit highs there in 2008.

343
00:17:04.368 --> 00:17:06.709
That period is very significant.

344
00:17:06.729 --> 00:17:13.092
That period, that five-year period between
2003 and 2008, is extremely significant

345
00:17:13.092 --> 00:17:15.092
because...

346
00:17:15.092 --> 00:17:19.963
We had a similar environment, and I don't
want to say, let's talk about wars,

347
00:17:19.963 --> 00:17:21.963
inflation, and Trump,

348
00:17:21.963 --> 00:17:23.963
and those kind of things.

349
00:17:23.963 --> 00:17:25.705
I'm talking purely about, suddenly there
was a massive interest in commodities,

350
00:17:26.225 --> 00:17:31.928
and the commodities that South Africa is
some of the largest producers of in the

351
00:17:31.928 --> 00:17:32.289
world,

352
00:17:34.009 --> 00:17:34.969
attracted more interest.

353
00:17:35.489 --> 00:17:41.952
And that suddenly helped us, that suddenly
helped our economy to grow way quicker

354
00:17:41.952 --> 00:17:43.952
than...

355
00:17:43.952 --> 00:17:45.952
everybody expected.

356
00:17:45.952 --> 00:17:49.858
We've already seen the IMF now come out a
week or two ago stating that we're not

357
00:17:49.858 --> 00:17:51.858
going to be growing 1% anymore.

358
00:17:51.858 --> 00:17:53.000
It's going to be more towards the 1.5%.

359
00:17:53.060 --> 00:17:54.401
Hey, I wouldn't even listen to them.

360
00:17:54.501 --> 00:18:00.145
I mean, I listen to this and I suddenly
look at the RAND in the 15 RAND levels.

361
00:18:00.926 --> 00:18:02.647
I look at the massive interest.

362
00:18:02.807 --> 00:18:04.829
We're the largest platinum producer in the
world.

363
00:18:04.830 --> 00:18:08.111
We're the second largest palladium
producer in the world.

364
00:18:08.291 --> 00:18:14.256
We're by far the largest rhodium producer
in the world and we're still the eighth

365
00:18:14.256 --> 00:18:16.256
largest gold producer in the world.

366
00:18:16.256 --> 00:18:19.501
So now suddenly you had an environment you
had an environment

367
00:18:20.942 --> 00:18:25.346
where we had this interest in the
commodities that helped our currency back

368
00:18:25.346 --> 00:18:25.505
in the days.

369
00:18:25.505 --> 00:18:31.191
You remember gold price, the rent was
there around about the 2003 levels were

370
00:18:31.651 --> 00:18:35.414
12, 13 rent to the dollar and then went
below five rent.

371
00:18:35.875 --> 00:18:37.416
More importantly, we had an Yeah.

372
00:18:37.656 --> 00:18:43.898
unemployment level in 2003 of 30 percent
very similar to what we we're seeing today

373
00:18:44.278 --> 00:18:51.140
30 percent unemployment level by 2000 in
2007 our unemployment levels was

374
00:18:51.840 --> 00:18:58.422
at 21.5 percent so so it was great for
unemployment but suddenly there there was

375
00:18:58.422 --> 00:19:00.422
flows we had

376
00:19:00.422 --> 00:19:02.863
inflows we we had flows and commodities
and that's spilled over to other

377
00:19:02.863 --> 00:19:04.863
industries.

378
00:19:04.863 --> 00:19:06.144
So I suddenly...

379
00:19:06.936 --> 00:19:08.338
I'm looking at smaller companies.

380
00:19:09.099 --> 00:19:15.286
You know I always, well not always, for
the past five years liked my SA Inc

381
00:19:15.286 --> 00:19:17.286
companies and that has done well for me.

382
00:19:17.286 --> 00:19:19.511
But I mean take for example a company like
Afromat.

383
00:19:20.552 --> 00:19:21.913
Predominantly it's an African story.

384
00:19:22.094 --> 00:19:24.797
It's the second time I've heard that name
in the last two days.

385
00:19:25.117 --> 00:19:26.779
Yeah people are having a look at this.

386
00:19:26.859 --> 00:19:27.620
Yes go on.

387
00:19:28.678 --> 00:19:33.601
Yeah, this is, I mean, suddenly this
company is looking really attractive.

388
00:19:33.621 --> 00:19:40.344
It's like, if you go pull up the graph
while I'm, rather than making yourself a

389
00:19:40.344 --> 00:19:42.344
cup of tea again, just pull up a graph
there of AfriMet.

390
00:19:42.344 --> 00:19:43.786
And you'll see it's been a company that
actually came back.

391
00:19:43.806 --> 00:19:47.408
I mean, they went from being a pure, let's
call it,

392
00:19:47.568 --> 00:19:53.572
quarry type of miner to buying into iron
ore.

393
00:19:54.072 --> 00:19:57.874
And in an environment where iron ore sort
of retraced.

394
00:19:58.114 --> 00:19:58.874
sort of under pressure.

395
00:19:59.355 --> 00:20:01.896
And then they went and bought into cement.

396
00:20:02.677 --> 00:20:08.340
And cement also, we're looking at things
like PPCs a few years ago, also struggled.

397
00:20:08.520 --> 00:20:14.383
So they sort of caught a perfect storm on
two commodities that were struggling a

398
00:20:14.383 --> 00:20:14.823
bit.

399
00:20:14.923 --> 00:20:16.164
But they've managed.

400
00:20:16.165 --> 00:20:19.186
This is the one thing about Afromat, great
management.

401
00:20:19.206 --> 00:20:26.169
They've always been able to work through
these storms and position themselves

402
00:20:26.169 --> 00:20:28.169
better in the,

403
00:20:28.169 --> 00:20:30.169
let's call it the...

404
00:20:30.169 --> 00:20:34.474
bad environments and i think this is going
to be no different now when you look at

405
00:20:34.474 --> 00:20:36.474
and and i it's come down i mean it's more
it's more than halved hasn't

406
00:20:36.474 --> 00:20:41.357
it well it's just it's about half it's
come down from 70 back in what is it uh

407
00:20:41.357 --> 00:20:43.357
gosh i can't uh yeah

408
00:20:43.357 --> 00:20:49.362
what is it denominated in it says here
6930 what is that 69 69 man 30 a share

409
00:20:49.362 --> 00:20:49.401
what is that

410
00:20:51.083 --> 00:20:56.906
yeah that's that's that's a share price
yeah i know i'm just saying it's the dots

411
00:20:56.906 --> 00:20:58.906
are the decimal points all in the wrong
way but anyway

412
00:20:58.906 --> 00:21:01.467
It's gone from, let's call it 70 down to
43 at the moment.

413
00:21:02.628 --> 00:21:08.789
It hasn't got the base that I would like
to do a silver or a platinum or to a

414
00:21:08.789 --> 00:21:10.789
lesser extent gold.

415
00:21:10.789 --> 00:21:12.789
But I see what you mean.

416
00:21:12.789 --> 00:21:16.511
But what I'm alluding to is when you look
at that period 2003, that period,

417
00:21:17.112 --> 00:21:21.513
PPC in 2003 was trading at six rand a
share.

418
00:21:22.233 --> 00:21:25.674
By 2007, it was trading at 33 rand a
share.

419
00:21:27.098 --> 00:21:32.621
We didn't have Kumba iron ore back then
because I think it was only unbundled out

420
00:21:32.621 --> 00:21:33.081
of

421
00:21:34.102 --> 00:21:40.345
Anglo-American as well, I think 2007-ish.
But when you look at something like Rio

422
00:21:40.345 --> 00:21:42.345
Tinto, it's also in things like iron ore.

423
00:21:42.345 --> 00:21:43.187
When you look at Rio Tinto share price,

424
00:21:43.667 --> 00:21:50.591
it was trading at £1,150 in 2003 and went
up all the way to £5,000 in 2007.

425
00:21:50.592 --> 00:21:55.934
So it's maybe not a like-for-like
scenario, but I'm starting to look at

426
00:21:55.934 --> 00:21:57.934
these secondaries.

427
00:21:57.934 --> 00:22:04.161
Which areas, which sectors are going to
benefit from this massive precious metals

428
00:22:04.161 --> 00:22:06.161
rallies?

429
00:22:06.161 --> 00:22:06.903
That's the other thing that I want you to
do.

430
00:22:06.943 --> 00:22:09.466
I couldn't ask you this week because I
already asked you a question.

431
00:22:09.506 --> 00:22:16.432
I want someone who's clever enough to say
how much money are they going to make with

432
00:22:16.432 --> 00:22:18.432
these margins that Skank has just been
talking about compared to how much

433
00:22:18.432 --> 00:22:20.432
money they were making five years ago.

434
00:22:20.432 --> 00:22:21.557
And say to yourself, right, I'm the
Treasury.

435
00:22:21.837 --> 00:22:23.018
I'm the Treasury Department.

436
00:22:23.278 --> 00:22:29.860
how much more tax is SARS going to receive
in 2026 versus 2021,

437
00:22:30.440 --> 00:22:31.200
for example?

438
00:22:31.520 --> 00:22:36.042
Because it must be a bonanza for the local
treasury.

439
00:22:37.262 --> 00:22:38.022
Undoubtedly.

440
00:22:38.302 --> 00:22:40.603
This is going to be massive for treasury.

441
00:22:40.663 --> 00:22:41.923
This is going to be massive for taxes.

442
00:22:42.243 --> 00:22:47.605
And a lot of people say, well, but just
remember, goldfields only got South Deep

443
00:22:47.605 --> 00:22:49.605
still left in South Africa.

444
00:22:49.605 --> 00:22:51.346
Agnagold don't have any South African
mines left.

445
00:22:52.214 --> 00:22:52.914
It's interesting.

446
00:22:52.914 --> 00:22:55.776
I can't remember what the company's name
or mine's name is.

447
00:22:56.236 --> 00:23:01.799
But we've had the first gold listing in,
what was it, 20 years now, a few weeks

448
00:23:01.799 --> 00:23:02.099
ago.

449
00:23:02.520 --> 00:23:03.741
And why?

450
00:23:04.301 --> 00:23:05.181
Because they said, well,

451
00:23:06.162 --> 00:23:12.625
when the gold price was trading at $1,700,
$1,800,

452
00:23:12.626 --> 00:23:17.088
they couldn't start up the mine again
because it's too expensive to.

453
00:23:17.089 --> 00:23:20.970
Yeah, well, at $5,200, $5,300.

454
00:23:21.571 --> 00:23:26.829
I see quite a few decommissioned gold
mines or even platinum mines.

455
00:23:27.542 --> 00:23:31.383
Lady of Mines, that's going to suddenly be
started up again.

456
00:23:31.683 --> 00:23:35.804
And that's going to be naturally good for
people that need to be employed to go and

457
00:23:35.804 --> 00:23:37.804
work at the mines.

458
00:23:37.804 --> 00:23:38.765
This is going to be good for, like you
mentioned, the taxes.

459
00:23:39.225 --> 00:23:40.806
And it's going to have the spillover
effect.

460
00:23:40.807 --> 00:23:45.387
It's going to go through to the likes of
the shop right checkers where people need

461
00:23:45.387 --> 00:23:47.387
to shop for food.

462
00:23:47.387 --> 00:23:49.387
Mr.

463
00:23:49.387 --> 00:23:51.387
Price, which we saw today.

464
00:23:51.387 --> 00:23:53.387
Lewis, which we also saw today.

465
00:23:53.387 --> 00:23:54.330
I mean, I might sound like… And good for
Capitech as well and other banks, of

466
00:23:54.330 --> 00:23:54.550
course.

467
00:23:54.690 --> 00:23:55.390
Correct.

468
00:23:55.390 --> 00:23:55.770
The same sort of thing.

469
00:23:55.970 --> 00:23:57.812
Yeah, OK, I get your point.

470
00:23:57.872 --> 00:24:04.699
South Africa, there's so many reasons to
have a really good look at South Africa.

471
00:24:04.979 --> 00:24:11.966
I had so many podcasts in the last quarter
of last year that made me think 2026 is

472
00:24:11.966 --> 00:24:13.966
going to be better than 2025.

473
00:24:13.966 --> 00:24:16.450
And 2025 was a good year for the JSE, even
outside of the miners.

474
00:24:18.212 --> 00:24:20.434
I reference John Bickard, for example.

475
00:24:20.882 --> 00:24:27.305
His last interview with me, he was
ragingly bullish about South Africa and

476
00:24:27.305 --> 00:24:29.305
the sort of companies that you're

477
00:24:29.305 --> 00:24:31.305
talking about.

478
00:24:31.305 --> 00:24:33.305
Anyway, let's not get too much into that.

479
00:24:33.305 --> 00:24:35.305
We've got the Fed tonight.

480
00:24:35.305 --> 00:24:37.305
We've got Jerome Powell.

481
00:24:37.305 --> 00:24:39.305
He's going to keep his cool.

482
00:24:39.305 --> 00:24:41.305
He's very collected, that man.

483
00:24:41.305 --> 00:24:43.305
And he'll stay there.

484
00:24:43.305 --> 00:24:45.305
He'll leave rates unchanged.

485
00:24:45.305 --> 00:24:47.305
But then he's going to say some things
afterwards, which is what we're all going

486
00:24:47.305 --> 00:24:49.305
to hang on all of those words, of course.

487
00:24:49.305 --> 00:24:52.021
And when I look at the CRB index, I think
of inflation and I think he'll sound a

488
00:24:52.021 --> 00:24:54.021
cautionary note on inflation,

489
00:24:54.021 --> 00:24:54.083
especially with the dollar under pressure.

490
00:24:54.423 --> 00:25:00.608
And that's one of the reasons why I think
the market may say, wait a second, this is

491
00:25:00.608 --> 00:25:02.608
all a little bit too frothy, given what
he's just said.

492
00:25:02.608 --> 00:25:03.611
Let's take a few profits off the table
here.

493
00:25:03.891 --> 00:25:10.476
It's one of my reasonings for this, apart
from the analysis of the potential gap

494
00:25:10.476 --> 00:25:12.476
technical analysis trade skulk.

495
00:25:12.476 --> 00:25:12.738
So I've got a case.

496
00:25:12.739 --> 00:25:13.699
I've got a case.

497
00:25:13.700 --> 00:25:14.400
You've got a case.

498
00:25:14.400 --> 00:25:15.079
I've got a case.

499
00:25:15.079 --> 00:25:16.841
Your case is stronger than my case, as
usual.

500
00:25:16.982 --> 00:25:17.682
And...

501
00:25:17.762 --> 00:25:19.883
A case I have.

502
00:25:19.884 --> 00:25:22.685
The thing is, I hear what you say.

503
00:25:23.386 --> 00:25:29.150
And I know they're fighting for the 7,000
mark on the S&P 500 currently.

504
00:25:29.650 --> 00:25:34.914
So if you say the market starts looking
through this and it starts becoming a

505
00:25:34.914 --> 00:25:34.953
little bit frothy,

506
00:25:36.915 --> 00:25:43.400
and we do suddenly see a bit of a
retracement in markets, remember, gold is

507
00:25:43.400 --> 00:25:45.400
still seen as a safe haven,

508
00:25:45.400 --> 00:25:46.342
as sort of a protector against weaker
markets.

509
00:25:47.422 --> 00:25:53.245
Again, I think not calling tops or
bottoms, I agree with

510
00:25:53.685 --> 00:25:54.885
Biggie, John Beckard.

511
00:25:55.486 --> 00:25:59.708
I do think there's still a lot of
opportunities.

512
00:26:00.108 --> 00:26:06.291
And this is sort of a, I know history
doesn't necessarily always repeat itself,

513
00:26:06.291 --> 00:26:08.291
but what I say often rhymes.

514
00:26:08.291 --> 00:26:12.153
I do think that when you look at South
Africa, we are in a very similar scenario.

515
00:26:12.613 --> 00:26:14.074
And just be careful.

516
00:26:14.602 --> 00:26:18.964
Looking at last year, because I had so
many of my colleagues in this industry,

517
00:26:20.324 --> 00:26:26.027
which I've heard over the past few weeks,
we shouldn't see a repeat of last year in

518
00:26:26.027 --> 00:26:28.027
terms of returns for South Africa.

519
00:26:28.027 --> 00:26:28.468
Why not?

520
00:26:28.469 --> 00:26:29.248
Yeah, that's the thing.

521
00:26:29.308 --> 00:26:35.651
If you look at that period, 2005, 2006,
2007, I can't remember the exact levels,

522
00:26:35.671 --> 00:26:40.613
but we had a great recovery in the latter
part of 2004.

523
00:26:40.614 --> 00:26:43.394
And then 2005, the market has grown 30%.

524
00:26:44.170 --> 00:26:45.191
percent, 30 odd percent.

525
00:26:45.192 --> 00:26:50.834
And then everybody said, ah, we won't see
a repeat of, and then it went like 70% of

526
00:26:50.834 --> 00:26:52.834
the next year.

527
00:26:52.834 --> 00:26:58.078
And also I think it was, it was the final
year was before the, for the crash of 2008

528
00:26:58.078 --> 00:27:00.078
did also something about 40, 41%.

529
00:27:00.078 --> 00:27:02.078
So be careful.

530
00:27:02.078 --> 00:27:04.701
Um, I think my message to the listeners
out there is have a longer term view and,

531
00:27:04.761 --> 00:27:08.363
and make sure you don't have serious
overweight position.

532
00:27:08.383 --> 00:27:12.646
If you've got a serious overweight
position in something like the S&P 500 or

533
00:27:13.046 --> 00:27:19.956
ai stocks those type of things i would
caution you now just to have a look and

534
00:27:19.956 --> 00:27:21.956
and maybe if you've got an overweight
position in

535
00:27:21.956 --> 00:27:26.966
gold miners gold or silver only have those
things again same story just maybe just be

536
00:27:26.966 --> 00:27:27.165
careful

537
00:27:27.559 --> 00:27:29.460
We've got a crazy market now.

538
00:27:29.660 --> 00:27:30.501
Yes, we have indeed.

539
00:27:31.421 --> 00:27:33.042
Let's have a look at some of those crazy
prices.

540
00:27:33.082 --> 00:27:34.503
Dollar around 15.95.

541
00:27:34.504 --> 00:27:36.964
British pound against the round, 21.95.

542
00:27:36.984 --> 00:27:38.965
Euro around 19.05.

543
00:27:38.985 --> 00:27:41.527
Euro dollar, I haven't got the bit on the
end.

544
00:27:41.528 --> 00:27:42.868
It was above 120 yesterday.

545
00:27:42.869 --> 00:27:44.869
It went to about 120.50.

546
00:27:44.870 --> 00:27:46.550
I've got it at 119.

547
00:27:46.551 --> 00:27:49.972
I don't know why they've suddenly cut off
the last two digits on my ShareNet screen.

548
00:27:49.992 --> 00:27:55.695
But anyway, very good service, by the way,
if you're listening ShareNet, apart from

549
00:27:55.695 --> 00:27:57.695
your Euro dollar, which I don't like.

550
00:27:57.695 --> 00:27:58.480
Gold price is $52.62.

551
00:27:58.481 --> 00:28:04.902
It was $53.45 at one stage this morning,
but still up 1.4% or $73.

552
00:28:04.922 --> 00:28:11.004
And that's platinum price $2,618 at $81 or
3.2% palladium.

553
00:28:11.244 --> 00:28:14.745
That's the star of the PGM show up 8% to
$2,031,

554
00:28:14.746 --> 00:28:18.666
$151 per ounce.

555
00:28:18.726 --> 00:28:21.607
Let's have a look at the all important
other commodities.

556
00:28:22.031 --> 00:28:28.814
notably the energy price why do i lose my
cursor do you find as you get older you

557
00:28:28.814 --> 00:28:30.814
lose your cursor on your screen

558
00:28:30.814 --> 00:28:35.557
more skill don't answer that all the
things i've lost i miss my

559
00:28:35.677 --> 00:28:38.798
mind the most brent

560
00:28:38.858 --> 00:28:45.281
nice one uh brent crude oil 68.5 cents per
barrel at 0.7 sorry mr trump gasoline

561
00:28:45.281 --> 00:28:47.281
prices are not

562
00:28:47.281 --> 00:28:51.668
199 a gallon in many states across the u.s
not at these prices The West Texas crude,

563
00:28:51.669 --> 00:28:55.689
$62.90, up 0.8% gold price.

564
00:28:55.749 --> 00:28:56.450
Oh, we've given you that.

565
00:28:56.970 --> 00:28:59.831
Sorry, silver, $113 per ounce, up 0.9%.

566
00:29:00.171 --> 00:29:04.673
Copper, $5.92 per pound, up 0.9%.

567
00:29:04.674 --> 00:29:05.934
And yeah, looking good.

568
00:29:05.935 --> 00:29:08.955
I was looking at the Baltic Index the
other day.

569
00:29:09.015 --> 00:29:14.297
That's been doing so well as international
trade shrugs off the tariff story from

570
00:29:14.697 --> 00:29:16.018
April of last year.

571
00:29:16.478 --> 00:29:18.139
And trade going along very nicely.

572
00:29:18.199 --> 00:29:18.899
Thank you very much.

573
00:29:19.295 --> 00:29:21.376
So the Baltic Freight Index doing very
well.

574
00:29:21.476 --> 00:29:25.677
So lovely across the board more or less on
the commodities that we look at.

575
00:29:25.737 --> 00:29:28.658
US 10-year bond yield, 425.

576
00:29:28.818 --> 00:29:29.918
It broke through 420.

577
00:29:30.439 --> 00:29:31.579
That's the new support level.

578
00:29:31.679 --> 00:29:36.160
Had a look at it a couple of days ago,
back at 425 now, going along slowly.

579
00:29:36.220 --> 00:29:37.421
That's a slow burner.

580
00:29:37.441 --> 00:29:40.542
That's another pick of the year for me, as
I told you, Skalk.

581
00:29:41.022 --> 00:29:43.423
Sell the US bonds by the yield.

582
00:29:43.583 --> 00:29:44.543
S&P 500.

583
00:29:44.983 --> 00:29:46.985
has been toying with 7,000.

584
00:29:47.045 --> 00:29:50.707
I've got the futures above 7,000, of
course, for March of this year.

585
00:29:51.108 --> 00:29:54.290
7,020 up 0.2%.

586
00:29:54.291 --> 00:29:56.292
Doesn't like it, especially ahead of the
Fed.

587
00:29:56.672 --> 00:29:58.213
South African 10-year bond yield.

588
00:29:58.814 --> 00:30:02.016
Oh my goodness me, look at this, 8.13%.

589
00:30:02.017 --> 00:30:04.658
An unsung hero, the bond market last year.

590
00:30:04.698 --> 00:30:10.723
We're talking about gold and clever people
also had a bond portfolio which saw

591
00:30:11.323 --> 00:30:16.345
In April, the yield being 11.15%, now
8.15%,

592
00:30:16.385 --> 00:30:19.307
300 basis points in less than a year.

593
00:30:19.407 --> 00:30:20.407
Fantastic stuff.

594
00:30:20.487 --> 00:30:24.089
Bitcoin, 89,284.

595
00:30:24.090 --> 00:30:30.232
What have you got on the movers and
shakers board, rather the movers and

596
00:30:30.232 --> 00:30:32.232
downers on the JSC today, Skarnkov?

597
00:30:32.232 --> 00:30:32.493
I imagine some gold miners are involved
there.

598
00:30:33.533 --> 00:30:37.035
Yeah, it's, I mean, on the downers,
it's...

599
00:30:39.124 --> 00:30:41.205
We've seen some of the telecoms today.

600
00:30:41.546 --> 00:30:44.808
That was an interesting one, Vodacom,
Telcom.

601
00:30:45.969 --> 00:30:49.111
I've also seen Richemont in there, in the
mix.

602
00:30:49.311 --> 00:30:54.715
And naturally, the big loser today is
Sapi, dropped by 8%.

603
00:30:55.896 --> 00:30:58.437
On the upside, I mean, you called it.

604
00:30:58.518 --> 00:31:00.899
Harmony, 9.5%.

605
00:31:01.199 --> 00:31:03.781
Goldfields, 8.1%.

606
00:31:03.801 --> 00:31:06.303
Anglo Gold, 6.4%.

607
00:31:06.483 --> 00:31:08.544
Northern Platinum 6.2%.

608
00:31:08.545 --> 00:31:11.124
Subanya Stillwater 5.7%.

609
00:31:11.184 --> 00:31:13.265
Pan-African Gold 5.7%.

610
00:31:13.725 --> 00:31:14.705
Do I need to continue?

611
00:31:14.905 --> 00:31:17.186
It's all in the diggers.

612
00:31:17.506 --> 00:31:18.246
All in the diggers.

613
00:31:18.247 --> 00:31:18.947
Fantastic.

614
00:31:19.107 --> 00:31:21.147
And what about the indices?

615
00:31:21.207 --> 00:31:22.368
How's that resi doing?

616
00:31:22.408 --> 00:31:23.748
Start with that if you would today.

617
00:31:24.188 --> 00:31:25.348
Yeah, we need to start with that.

618
00:31:25.589 --> 00:31:27.369
That's 40% of our all share now.

619
00:31:27.429 --> 00:31:29.310
So we need to start with that.

620
00:31:29.550 --> 00:31:33.631
The JSE resi today increased by 5%.

621
00:31:34.511 --> 00:31:36.712
Goodness me, stop the world, I want to get
off.

622
00:31:36.713 --> 00:31:38.833
And it's not exactly off a low base
either, is it?

623
00:31:38.873 --> 00:31:39.613
Fantastic.

624
00:31:40.014 --> 00:31:40.914
What a performance.

625
00:31:41.594 --> 00:31:42.615
And here's the interesting part.

626
00:31:42.995 --> 00:31:48.117
I'm going to say that JSC All Share ended
the day

627
00:31:48.437 --> 00:31:53.239
1.34% in the green at 125,069 points.

628
00:31:53.479 --> 00:31:59.862
But both the industrials were down 60
basis points and the financials were down

629
00:31:59.862 --> 00:32:01.862
70 basis points.

630
00:32:01.862 --> 00:32:03.064
So all driven by the… But as I mentioned,
the diggers,

631
00:32:03.224 --> 00:32:07.407
all the commodity stocks actually kept the
all share in the green for today.

632
00:32:07.907 --> 00:32:08.768
Very good indeed.

633
00:32:09.168 --> 00:32:12.290
Skalk, I've got to ask you one personal
question.

634
00:32:12.330 --> 00:32:17.574
When you get you're exhausted because your
mind is going all over the place, your

635
00:32:17.574 --> 00:32:19.574
clients are phoning.

636
00:32:19.574 --> 00:32:23.838
You've got three phones going and you've
got client, sorry, your colleagues coming

637
00:32:23.838 --> 00:32:25.838
in and asking you this and that.

638
00:32:25.838 --> 00:32:26.940
When you get home, do you have time to
decompress?

639
00:32:27.340 --> 00:32:31.063
Or will you, for example, be waiting for
the Fed tonight and sitting there?

640
00:32:31.647 --> 00:32:35.114
And your long-suffering wife and kids will
be looking for your attention.

641
00:32:35.175 --> 00:32:36.758
You'll say, I'm sorry, Jerome Powell.

642
00:32:38.421 --> 00:32:40.806
He's my wife tonight.

643
00:32:42.932 --> 00:32:44.593
Tell me, do you switch off?

644
00:32:44.673 --> 00:32:48.877
Because it must be difficult to sleep when
so much is going on in your favour as

645
00:32:48.877 --> 00:32:50.877
well, I might add.

646
00:32:50.877 --> 00:32:52.059
I'm in the privileged position, Lindsay.

647
00:32:52.520 --> 00:32:54.081
You remember the JSE floor.

648
00:32:55.923 --> 00:32:58.825
I met my wife on that floor.

649
00:32:59.365 --> 00:33:01.507
So she's been in the industry.

650
00:33:01.587 --> 00:33:04.229
She's in this industry and she knows my
passion, luckily.

651
00:33:04.670 --> 00:33:10.595
So she'll most probably be sitting next to
me, you know, listening to Paul delivering

652
00:33:10.595 --> 00:33:12.595
his speech.

653
00:33:12.595 --> 00:33:12.736
What a couple of nerds.

654
00:33:12.776 --> 00:33:13.476
Fantastic.

655
00:33:15.577 --> 00:33:17.157
Skulk, thank you very much for your time
as always.

656
00:33:17.198 --> 00:33:22.180
Skulk Lowe is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was

657
00:33:22.180 --> 00:33:24.180
the 5 o'clock shadow.

658
00:33:24.180 --> 00:33:29.542
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

659
00:33:29.542 --> 00:33:31.542
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

660
00:33:31.542 --> 00:33:34.064
position, or opinion of any other agency,
organisation, employer,

661
00:33:34.404 --> 00:33:38.246
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

662
00:33:38.726 --> 00:33:45.692
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

663
00:33:45.692 --> 00:33:47.692
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

664
00:33:47.692 --> 00:33:51.157
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

665
00:33:51.157 --> 00:33:51.277
change,

666
00:33:51.438 --> 00:33:54.000
revision and rethinking at any time.

667
00:33:54.321 --> 00:33:56.723
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
