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You're listening to

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Strictly Business Podcast

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with

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Lindsay

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Williams.

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in your voice.

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You really were enjoying what you were
doing.

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It was an enjoyable 2025, wasn't it?

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It was a fantastic year by the time we got
to December.

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Obviously, a couple of wobbles in the
beginning with Liberation Day and things

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like that.

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So the reason that we weren't enthused
about the market is that finally there was

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positive momentum in South Africa.

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The reforms that have been implemented.

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We were starting to take root, and we
could see that the country was heading in

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the right place.

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And some of the horrible discounts that
had been sort of lumped on South Africa

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over the many,

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many years was people were starting to
talk about South Africa, that the discount

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might start disappearing.

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And as I said, a bit of a global risk in
the beginning,

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but then when we could focus on South
African issues and South African dynamics,

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the bond market did very, very well.

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Yes.

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It did.

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I don't know how to describe it because I
know how to describe a situation where

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everything's going bad.

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And over the years, you know, that's been
quite easy with South Africa.

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It's called a perfect storm.

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I don't know what the opposite of a
perfect storm is.

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But anyway, we got it.

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Maybe we could just briefly go back and
you referenced Liberation Day.

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That's when Mr.

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Trump stood up and announced all these
extraordinary tariffs on every country in

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the world,

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some that didn't even exist.

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went to something like 11.1%, 11.15%.

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Look at it now, pushing 8%.

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Just a potted history of the year, please.

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The year started with promise,

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but then after the inauguration of Trump
and he started making the noises very

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aggressively,

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basically picking a fight with the rest of
the world.

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And I think it was right in the beginning
of April, he had his so-called Liberation

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Day where, as you said,

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he announced all those tariffs.

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And in some of those equity markets, 10%,
15%, 20% negative.

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It was a complete catastrophe.

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Markets panicked, bond yields sold off,
currencies weakened, and it was absolutely

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crazy.

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And then thankfully there was a bit of
that taco trade of Trump always chickens

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out.

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And by the time you got to December, you
look back and you go, what happened to

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Liberation Day?

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Markets were up fantastically well.

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African bonds did over 20%.

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Our equities did over 40%.

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I think you battle to get anything below
15%, 20% if you were in an equity market

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around the world.

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Yeah, it was an amazing year.

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And we've got to start with the basics.

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We've got to talk about the U.S.

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dollar because I remember speaking to your
colleague in London, Sahil Matani, about

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the dollar.

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And he was of the cautious opinion that
the dollar bear market had started.

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It can go on for quite a long time.

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So the dollar under pressure, and emerging
markets benefited from that, Malcolm.

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Very much so.

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So everyone goes, oh, the rand is so
strong, the rand is so strong.

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Whereas when you unpack it against the
dollar, look here, we were in the top

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tier, I think.

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But I think we were only like number 10 or
11 as far as the best performers.

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The year where I coined it, anything but
the dollar.

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There were only about four or five
currencies that performed worse than the

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dollar.

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Thanks to Liberation Day, a lot of
investors actually decided to diversify

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their investments and they went

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into Japan, they went into Europe, and
then as the year progressed,

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started actually investing in emerging
markets, equities, bonds, and our

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currencies.

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And many, many emerging market currencies
and bond markets did very,

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very well as a result of that capital flow
into their region.

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So it really was a diversification.

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sort of away from the uncertainty that has
now been created around the dollar.

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Yeah, and this is not part of this
conversation, but you can see the

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diversification of, for example,

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central bank reserves by the extraordinary
performance of the gold price.

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Solid terms of trade is one thing that
keeps on flashing across my screen along

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with others which we'll deal with in a
moment.

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But that's also been a factor, hasn't it?

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In South Africa, that is.

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Absolutely.

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So we benefited from the diversification
just into our normal markets.

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But because the central bankers are doing
the same thing, we export gold and

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platinum.

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And that's predominantly the gold is what
central bankers are diversified into,

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which is fantastic news for the RAND.

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And we track our terms of trade growth
every single morning.

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So one of the first charts I look at.

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And, you know, when I came back from leave
in early January, I looked at it and I

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said, guys,

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we are going to see 15 rand something on
the rand dollar because that's what the

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terms of trade are telling us.

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You know, we are lagging what gold price
and platinum price has done.

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And, you know, thankfully, the rand is
starting to play catch up now.

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Yeah, I didn't realize you did it daily.

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And it must have been looking very good
this morning after what has happened in

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precious metals markets over the last
couple of days.

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What about inflation?

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Inflation is another one.

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There was an enormous development last
year regarding inflation targeting, which

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you'll mention, of course.

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But inflation is under control.

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What is it?

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Three and a half percent, something like
that, which is right at the bottom.

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Yeah.

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So we came out at 3.69 December after
hitting 2.8-ish, 2.9-ish for quite a few

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months,

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what, third quarter of last year.

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Completely under control, as you say.

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It's Lesetia, the Saab.

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and his MPC members have done a phenomenal
job.

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They've anchored inflation expectations,

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they started talking about the lower
target quite early last year

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and then in November when the minister
announced that the target is now around

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3%,

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expectations actually continue to fall.

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So it's changing behaviour, it will make
the RAN more predictable.

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It should reduce volatility of the
currency over time.

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And if we look at high inflation forecast
now, is the 3.6 that came out a week or

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two ago.

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That's the peak and now it starts coming
down again.

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And we've actually got inflation for 2026
averaging 3.1%.

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So pretty much spot on the target level
for the Reserve Bank.

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Which all comes together.

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along with the government of national
unity and being removed from the grey

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list, it all comes together to make

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South Africa quite attractive.

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And again, I remember talking to one of
your colleagues in the Cape Town office

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and he said he was getting calls from
people, Malcolm,

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that he hasn't heard from for a couple of
years, introducers of business, advisors,

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and saying, tell me about South Africa.

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And he said he hadn't had that for so
long.

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It was very refreshing.

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So South Africa, it was starting to become
attractive last year.

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It built momentum.

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Can the momentum continue in 2026?

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Yes, it definitely can.

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Because as I said, with this inflation
under control, what it allows is the Saab

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to actually cut rates this year.

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I mean, there's whispers they might start
now in January.

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I think by March we would have had our
first cut comfortably and possibly another

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25 basis points a couple

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of months later.

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So at least a 50 basis points cut from the
Saab.

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Then you throw in this, what people forget
is the terms of trade are boosted by the

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commodity prices.

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But what also is boosted is national
treasury because royalties and mining

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profits start

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jumping up quite aggressively, quite
quickly.

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And those numbers are not in the budget.

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And a very conservative estimate that we
have got is that we could easily see

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around 100, 110.

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a billion rand extra this year and next
year collected by the FISCUS,

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which is money that can then be used to
reduce the debt burden, consolidate the

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budget,

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consolidate the debt to GDP.

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And those are all the things that S&P, you
know, you mentioned the gray listing that

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we got cut off.

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We've also got an upgrade from S&P.

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Believe it or not, we had an excess supply
of electricity in December.

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too much electricity being produced by the
same company that couldn't keep the lights

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on three, four years ago.

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So that's the turnaround that's happened.

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So things are looking very good for us and
we're on a solid base.

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And if we just sort of keep things
together and don't shoot ourselves in the

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foot,

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that positive momentum can start leading
to better growth.

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No longer the half That's for 2025.

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And then 2026, there's no reason why we
can't be ticking up towards the 2% level

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growth,

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which is well on its way to that 3% level
that everyone knows we need to get to.

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Yes.

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And that company you talked about turning
itself around and actually being able to

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have an excess of electricity rather than
a shortage of

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electricity actually turned a profit as
well.

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Very good news indeed.

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We have to look at the US economy.

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And you talked about growth of maybe The
growth of the U.S.

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economy, well above 4%, which has
surprised everybody,

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surprised all the naysayers and also
incredibly important for South Africa,

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despite the rather unpleasant comings and
goings between Trump and Ramaphosa.

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But anyway, U.S.

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economy looking very good indeed.

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Malcolm?

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I mean, the way I describe it is it's
exceptionally resilient.

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You know, it also had the sort of banana
curve.

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Yeah, like at the beginning of the year
there was nervousness about inflation and

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then

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when Liberation Day came everyone said oh
shucks we've got inflation and now we're

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going to have a recession.

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So it went into that real stagflation sort
of expectation.

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But then, quite rightly, the numbers
started coming out and we saw that

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inflation was actually okay.

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Maybe a little bit higher than the Fed
wanted, but nothing like to unravel the

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economy.

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And the growth was very, very good.

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So it almost went into that block where we
call it the Goldilocks, where it's not too

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hot, not too cold.

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And in that environment, investors like
taking risk.

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And when they like taking risk, emerging
markets are the recipients of that.

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So people go, OK, we're doing very well at
home.

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But you know what?

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The environment's good for emerging
markets.

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Let's get some exposure in South Africa,
in Brazil, in Mexico.

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And that's exactly what they've done.

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So while inflation remains OK and growth
remains resilient,

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the environment for emerging markets in
general is very, very good.

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And that's very good for us in South
Africa.

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I can understand someone looking at the
Liberation Day fallout and saying Gosh,

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the South African bond above 11%

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the 10-year.

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I wouldn't mind having a nibble at that
and buying the bonds anticipating the

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yield coming down.

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But it's just above 8%.

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Can it be done again?

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Can it still be bought?

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What do you think?

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What is the outlook for bonds this year?

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Yeah, so that is a very pertinent
question.

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And I think the straight out answer is do
not expect a year anything like last year.

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Last year was a lot of catch up of a lot
of bad, bad...

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pricing for South Africa over many years.

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And as we slowly tick the boxes and fix
them quite rightly, investors rewarded the

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country.

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Going ahead now, you look at the market
and you go, okay, can it be done for a

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third?

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You know, two years that have gone pretty
well.

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Can we do a third in a row?

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And the answer is our competitors have got
weaker.

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And what I mean by that is inflation and
cash are the bond market's biggest

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competitors.

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And, you know, Lesete and Iago can cut
rates.

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So there's a very good chance that cash
rates are around 6%

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there and thereabouts by the end of the
year.

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Inflation is around 3%.

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So suddenly that 8, 8.25% sort of rate
that you're looking at is actually quite

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attractive.

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It's 5% above inflation.

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It's 2% to 3% above the cash rate.

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what the alternative is that makes them
attractive from that regard.

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Something's got to go wrong, Malcolm.

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It always does.

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00:13:06.255 --> 00:13:08.376
Please, let me curb your enthusiasm.

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00:13:09.317 --> 00:13:10.397
It's all too much now.

256
00:13:11.258 --> 00:13:11.958
No, no, no.

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I am a realist and what we have done is
we've started putting a couple of

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protective strategies because there's not
as

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much fat in the market but you've still
got to make an informed decision and try

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and do the best you can for

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clients.

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But also acknowledge that, yes, at these
lower rates,

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let's just make sure that we have got
protection strategies in so that if

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something does go wrong,

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we can actually protect the portfolio
during that wobble or the risk-off sort of

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phase that happens.

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00:13:42.480 --> 00:13:44.823
So I'm not naive to think that it's all
going to be in a straight line, it's all

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going to be hunky-dory.

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But if you invest at the right time and
take the right opportunities and take risk

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off when it's actually run quite hard,

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I think you will be able to give a
reasonable return.

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in a bond or income fund this year.

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So you're happy about the prospects for
the 91 Diversified Income Fund, in short?

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Absolutely.

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00:14:03.548 --> 00:14:06.149
I think there are going to be moments when
things can go quite well for it.

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But then equally, I think the trick is not
to be greedy,

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take risk off the table when it's done
well and wait for a better opportunity to

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get back in again.

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Malcolm, thanks very much for your time.

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That's Malcolm Charles, Portfolio Manager
at 91 in Cape Town.

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The views and opinions and various
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position, or opinion of any other agency,
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StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

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Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

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author,

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and since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

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