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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always, on a Thursday, it's the
Doubleheader Dream Team Edition with Viv

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Govender from RAND Swiss and David Shapiro
from Sassfin

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Securities. David, I'll start with you, if
I can, with data coming out of the United

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States.

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Can you sum it up for us?

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I think with US weekly jobless claims,
filings, and also US GDP, I think, came

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out today.

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Can you tell us?

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Yeah, well, I mean, it's far better than
anyone expected.

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The U.S.

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GDP in the third quarter is 4.4%. That's a
huge number.

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I mean, considering I know it was up
higher, but this has been revised even

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higher.

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I can't remember where it's come from.

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But I mean, it just shows you how
resilient the U.S.

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economy is.

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And also jobless numbers, you know, the
number of claims now are steadying.

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So there's no major layoffs or anything
like that.

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And against that, you're getting some
fairly decent numbers coming out of, you

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know,

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out of corporates, J&J today, yesterday,
sorry.

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So, I mean, overall, to sum it up, the
U.S.

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economy is in good shape.

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And I mean, if you compare this and why
I'm bringing this up and I want to hear

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Niv's response or reaction to it or even
yours, Lindsay, you know, I listened to

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the full

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Trump speech yesterday at Davos.

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And, you know, I was, I don't know what,

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stupefied because he just laid into
everybody.

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But why I bring this up?

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Because the one thing he did attack was
both the UK and certainly had a full go at

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Europe and, you know, even Switzerland.

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And fundamentally just making some quotes
about, you know, the electricity usage and

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how this has gone down.

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significantly, you know, over the last few
decades, just pointing out how backward

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Europe and the UK have gone, you know,
whereas the US is just roaring ahead.

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And, I mean, these are his friends, You
know, he's having a full go at his mates.

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So I just thought about it.

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I said, you know, maybe he's got a point.

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I was sitting there and said, yeah, well,
maybe he has got a point.

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Maybe they have been a bit stodgy and need
to do things.

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And this just kind of, these numbers
reinforce, you know,

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just how powerful the US is economically.

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So it's very hard to back against them,
you know,

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while they continue to run like this for
whatever reason.

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And I don't think Trump has had anything
to do with it, although he claims that he

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did.

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Yes, it's always I did this and I did
that.

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We know that.

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Yes, yes.

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Viv, you mentioned Mark Carney just before
we came on air, the PM of Canada, former

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governor of the Bank of England.

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Of course, a very intelligent man, a very
considered man and a brutal man when it

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came to his speech.

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So start with his speech, if you would,
and then we can get your opinions and

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mine, of course, even mine, David said.

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even my opinions on Trump.

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I know where it's going.

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I know where it's going.

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There's so much to talk about.

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But Viv, Mark Carney, first of all,
please.

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Okay, so the Carney speech, basically he
called it the rupture.

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He basically pointed out the fact that,
you know, we've always talked about the

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world order being a rules-based world
order, but in reality,

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it was never a rule-based world order.

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When people, we liked the bad things, we
ignored them.

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And people we didn't like were hurt, we
ignored that.

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And like, he just went through the whole
thing.

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and saying that that and basically now we
can't ignore things because you know

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effectively we are the guys being hurt uh
and

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that was like the the speech he gave out
and the thing to consider here is monk

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khani you know he is considered he's the

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most establishment person you can imagine
you know like the head of two central

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banks globally the

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pm of of of a g20 country this is like of
canada you know what i mean this is like

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if you're looking at the most mainstream

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steady person in the world you can find is
probably going to be Mark Carney.

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And for him to make a speech like that is
what makes war, you know, impressive or

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more, you know, impactful.

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But speaking of what David said just now,
I mean, the thing with the U.S.

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is irrespective of what Trump does, you
know, there's many billionaires in the

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U.S.

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right now that have said very bad things
about Trump.

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And he can't really do much about it
because the U.S.

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system allows you to do that.

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You basically have seen in places like,
you know, China.

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Even in places like some other parts of
the world, where if you offend the guy in

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charge, you are in trouble.

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The US system can overcome a very bad
leader or a very erratic leader because of

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its innate strengths.

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And the thing to be mentioned is that the
jobs numbers,

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you can't look at the unemployment numbers
coming up, the new jobs numbers coming

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out,

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without taking into account that what
Trump is doing with immigration is

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basically resetting that number.

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So if you look at, for instance, how many
jobs created in the US, it's significantly

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less than it was during the Biden years.

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It doesn't make a difference.

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The number that the initial jobless claims
is more important because that is going to

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tell you just how many people are claiming
for unemployment.

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The new jobs being created, that's a kind
of almost a false number just because

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immigration, both legal and illegal in the
U.S.,

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has come down so dramatically.

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And so I do think that we look at the jobs
numbers in the U.S., it's a bit deceptive.

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But as for the growth rate, we have been
saying AI, the kind of spending we're

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doing right now, has to translate into GDP
growth at some point in time.

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And maybe we are starting to see the start
of that.

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And if that is the case, then this would
just be, you know, a normal kind of number

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going forward, might even be a low number
going forward.

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Because by all estimates, if AI is really
taking off, we should be expecting, you

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know, I mean,

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that lady from our capital talked about
30%, three zero percent GDP growth rates,

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which, you know,

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theoretically is not out of the realm of
possibility.

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If we do have that AI take off, like
something might be occurring.

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Just before I go to you, David, I want to
stay with Viv, because I want to ask you,

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Viv,

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can you have an economy that grows at 4,
5, 6, 10 percent?

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I mean, Trump was talking even higher
numbers.

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He got a little bit carried away with
himself.

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What a surprise.

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But can you have a growth rate like that
and subdued employment numbers because of

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AI?

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Can that happen, Viv?

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It's almost certainly going to happen
because the way AI grows the economy is by

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replacing people.

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That's by definition how it's going to do
it.

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You don't go out and basically make
trillions of dollars of new value without

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just that extent replacing people.

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Now, some people are going to make a lot
more money because they're going to be a

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lot more useful.

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But, I mean, we are talking about the kind
of disruptions.

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I mean, people talk about the Industrial
Revolution.

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They talk about other revolutions in the
world, like technological revolutions.

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But I think the Industrial Revolution is
probably the key one.

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There was a reason that the Luddites were
doing things,

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that the sabotage guys were throwing their
shoes at looms and so on.

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It's because the disruption.

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The people's lives is going to be dramatic
and a lot of people are going to be

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unemployed, even as the economy grows
like, you know,

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10 plus percent a year.

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And the thing that you've got to
understand is that, you know, there's a

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reason that we had all these like major,
you know,

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revolutions and all these kind of crazy
things happening around the time of the

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Industrial Revolution throughout all of
Europe and even globally.

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It was because of the fact that, you know,
even though much more wealth has been

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created, it was not being created in the
normal way.

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And that disruption is going to be or was
gigantic.

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All that we can see right now, this
disruption is going to be larger.

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And the one thing I would point out is
this.

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Even if the U.S.

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manages to get perfectly right and
basically reaches the world very well,

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etc., they're going to do that in the U.S.

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We in South Africa are not going to touch
that money.

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People in Lagos or people in Delhi or
people in other parts of the world are not

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going to see any of that money.

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But we will see all of the disruption.

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And that's the thing to be concerned
about.

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Yes, it is concerning.

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David, Donald Trump's speeches, the second
speech today was quite extraordinary.

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I mean, this board of peace business.

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I'd love to get your view on that.

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But I sort of made the analogy, it's like
the rubber knickers, you're driving along

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the motorway,

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and suddenly the traffic slows down.

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You don't know why it slows down.

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But you know, you sit there for 20
minutes, and then you find out why it

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slowed down.

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It's because on the side of the road,
there's been an accident.

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There's a couple of police cars.

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There's an ambulance.

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There's a fire engine.

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It's been put over to the side of the
road.

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There's still three lanes going.

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It's in the lay-by.

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But you slow down so that you can have a
look at it because you can't help

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yourself.

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You're a rubbernecker.

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And that's what Trump's speech like was to
me this morning.

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I watched this thing and I said to myself,
why are you doing this?

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You've seen it all before.

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You've heard it all before.

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You've heard about the border.

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You've heard about...

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The growth, and you've heard about eight
wars being solved and you didn't get the

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Nobel Peace Prize.

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And you've heard about windmills costing
$1,000 every time they rotate.

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It's just unbelievable.

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And the whole concept of the Board of
Peace, I became so angry.

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For the first time, I literally and
metaphorically walked out of a Trump

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speech, David.

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He's out of control now, surely.

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Totally.

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I think that despite the fact that he's
out of control, I don't think anybody

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cares.

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You know, he makes a noise, but you know
that it's more than a noise than anything.

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When I listened to his talk and I started
off, I got very worried.

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I said, oh, the market's going to be
slaughtered.

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And I still have an issue, and I'll bring
it up now, that concerns me.

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But I thought, oh, the markets are going
to, you know, and so on.

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And then at the end of the speech, he
said, well, there's no trade.

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He didn't mention trade.

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There's no more tariffs.

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And, you know, despite the noise, you
know, I call him Roy of the Rovers.

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I mean, Man United could buy him because
he would just win the league for them.

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You know, he's just so super talented in
everything that he does.

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And everybody else is so utterly stupid.

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You know, he's just a superhero.

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And I listened to this as well.

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And yet the market just like kind of
brushed it aside.

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But Lindsay, where it's, this is, you
know, this is the interesting thing is

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that when Jensen Wang went to.

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Davos and started talking, he had an
impact on semiconductors.

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And I still think the underlying business
is very, very strong.

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I listened to Mark Benioff as well, you
know, on Salesforce. Well, he wasn't

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talking about Salesforce.

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He was talking about, you know, software
as an enterprise or software as a service.

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You know, he was talking about how they're
gearing themselves up.

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And you're getting a feel for where
American business is beginning to focus

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itself and help.

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powerful it is what worries me and this is
where i'm coming to go look at the dollar

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you know the

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dollar remains under a lot of pressure
okay and the bonds despite yeah and the

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bonds despite

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the fact that and

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gold price is going up gold price is going
up platinum price is up silver hasn't come

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down so

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00:11:00.922 --> 00:11:03.422
on so i mean if you look at all of those

232
00:11:04.630 --> 00:11:06.693
they're not responding to the equity
business.

233
00:11:06.751 --> 00:11:08.193
It's a totally different thing.

234
00:11:08.194 --> 00:11:09.372
You know what I mean?

235
00:11:10.775 --> 00:11:13.701
In those markets, there still are a lot of
concerns.

236
00:11:13.755 --> 00:11:16.638
Whether it's tied to Japan, I'm not quite
sure.

237
00:11:16.701 --> 00:11:20.880
But I would have thought with the market
now recovering everything, you know,

238
00:11:23.052 --> 00:11:24.083
we're back on a ride.

239
00:11:24.708 --> 00:11:28.037
Semiconductor companies, well, IT
companies are moving.

240
00:11:28.380 --> 00:11:31.177
The bond market hasn't moved, you know, or
hardly.

241
00:11:31.974 --> 00:11:32.674
The dollar...

242
00:11:32.674 --> 00:11:36.657
I mean, the RAND's now 1620.

243
00:11:36.658 --> 00:11:37.358
Yeah.

244
00:11:37.358 --> 00:11:38.059
You know, these are big moves.

245
00:11:38.438 --> 00:11:42.903
And I thought the RAND would be 17, 17,
not at all.

246
00:11:43.122 --> 00:11:44.301
Gold's still strong.

247
00:11:44.387 --> 00:11:45.528
People are still going in there.

248
00:11:45.786 --> 00:11:48.551
There still is this underlying fear there.

249
00:11:48.762 --> 00:11:54.559
So even though, you know what I'm saying,
even though the equity market is strong

250
00:11:54.559 --> 00:11:56.559
and we're celebrating that,

251
00:11:56.559 --> 00:11:57.919
there's another market that's saying, hold
on, you know, be careful.

252
00:11:58.778 --> 00:12:01.684
And I can't reconcile the two, you know,
the moods of the two.

253
00:12:02.044 --> 00:12:02.744
No.

254
00:12:02.744 --> 00:12:03.867
There is something going on in the
background.

255
00:12:03.868 --> 00:12:06.507
The gold price yesterday got close to
4,900,

256
00:12:06.550 --> 00:12:12.992
came below 4,800 when Trump said at the
end of his speech that he wasn't going to

257
00:12:12.992 --> 00:12:14.992
invade Greenland

258
00:12:14.992 --> 00:12:16.992
militarily.

259
00:12:16.992 --> 00:12:19.320
And then the market goes shooting up again
and gold comes down when he said that

260
00:12:19.320 --> 00:12:21.320
tariffs, all that sort of thing.

261
00:12:21.320 --> 00:12:21.679
It's just so weird what's been happening.

262
00:12:21.945 --> 00:12:28.273
But Viv, next week, the Fed has got a big
problem, Viv, because how does it analyse

263
00:12:28.273 --> 00:12:30.273
a good GDP number,

264
00:12:30.273 --> 00:12:32.273
bad jobs numbers?

265
00:12:32.273 --> 00:12:35.098
And maybe bad jobs numbers when the real
thing comes out, the jobless claims, quite

266
00:12:35.098 --> 00:12:35.138
soon,

267
00:12:35.477 --> 00:12:37.641
the first Friday of February.

268
00:12:38.181 --> 00:12:39.485
But how does it react?

269
00:12:39.665 --> 00:12:40.665
Does it take one?

270
00:12:40.743 --> 00:12:41.641
Does it take the other?

271
00:12:41.907 --> 00:12:45.985
And does it say, you know what, I just
listened to Viv Govender on the podcast.

272
00:12:46.055 --> 00:12:51.790
And yes, there has now been a new world
order created, not at Davos, but in

273
00:12:51.790 --> 00:12:53.790
markets.

274
00:12:53.790 --> 00:12:55.790
Viv, the Fed, what would you do?

275
00:12:55.790 --> 00:12:57.899
Look, I mean, the Fed has to be more
hawkish than it probably wants to be.

276
00:12:58.429 --> 00:13:05.194
Given all things fair, I mean, like, I'm
not saying it's going to, let's just say

277
00:13:05.194 --> 00:13:07.194
the mark, the inflation rate was low
enough and et cetera,

278
00:13:07.194 --> 00:13:11.640
which I don't think it is at the moment,
but if it was low enough to basically give

279
00:13:11.640 --> 00:13:13.640
it like a tendency to basically try and
cut rates,

280
00:13:13.640 --> 00:13:18.265
the Fed would probably have to stay and
not cut rates in that scenario, just

281
00:13:18.265 --> 00:13:20.265
because they're being attacked on their
credibility.

282
00:13:20.265 --> 00:13:22.858
And to preserve their credibility, they
have to almost like do the opposite of

283
00:13:22.858 --> 00:13:24.858
what they're being commanded to do.

284
00:13:24.858 --> 00:13:26.858
You know what I mean?

285
00:13:26.858 --> 00:13:28.858
They've got to kind of show backbone.

286
00:13:28.858 --> 00:13:30.858
And so I do suspect that the Fed is...

287
00:13:30.858 --> 00:13:34.592
actually going to be a little more hawkish
than default just because of the fact that

288
00:13:34.592 --> 00:13:36.592
that's the way they can show that

289
00:13:36.592 --> 00:13:37.354
they're not kowtowing to Trump at the
moment.

290
00:13:37.737 --> 00:13:42.456
They're probably going to hold steady for
the next meeting and maybe for the next

291
00:13:42.456 --> 00:13:44.456
couple of months afterwards.

292
00:13:44.456 --> 00:13:45.377
The big question of the year is going to
be around the Fed.

293
00:13:45.659 --> 00:13:47.065
Who's going to be on that Fed at the end
of the year?

294
00:13:47.706 --> 00:13:48.406
You know what I mean?

295
00:13:49.284 --> 00:13:50.534
He didn't.

296
00:13:52.331 --> 00:13:53.034
He didn't lay...

297
00:13:53.503 --> 00:13:56.127
He just kept going on at Powell.

298
00:13:56.538 --> 00:13:58.172
In the most destructive way.

299
00:13:59.480 --> 00:14:01.221
And calling him every kind of name.

300
00:14:01.541 --> 00:14:04.045
And, you know, that was supported by
Besant as well.

301
00:14:04.444 --> 00:14:06.405
I listened to Besant's speech as well.

302
00:14:06.448 --> 00:14:08.108
And he was saying, oh, you know,

303
00:14:08.170 --> 00:14:14.116
he put a lot of blame on Powell saying he
should have had an investigation into Lisa

304
00:14:14.116 --> 00:14:14.277
Cook.

305
00:14:14.397 --> 00:14:17.951
He should have had an investigation in his
own department about the overrun.

306
00:14:18.342 --> 00:14:21.327
You know, and the fact that he's done
that, you know, why do we have to do it?

307
00:14:21.405 --> 00:14:22.105
So on.

308
00:14:22.389 --> 00:14:24.405
So he was he's Trump's man.

309
00:14:24.701 --> 00:14:25.401
You know what I mean?

310
00:14:25.401 --> 00:14:26.042
He's.

311
00:14:26.395 --> 00:14:28.956
He's formulated his attack as well.

312
00:14:29.036 --> 00:14:30.476
He didn't hold back.

313
00:14:30.815 --> 00:14:36.397
He had a full go at Gavin Newsom, who's
from California.

314
00:14:36.398 --> 00:14:37.601
Governor of California, yes.

315
00:14:37.602 --> 00:14:43.460
He had a full go at him, saying he's
hobnobbing with his sugar daddy.

316
00:14:43.461 --> 00:14:46.397
Do you know Gavin Newsom?

317
00:14:46.398 --> 00:14:50.897
I think he's the former husband or
boyfriend of Trump's son's ex-wife.

318
00:14:51.823 --> 00:14:53.665
Yeah, there's a link there somewhere.

319
00:14:53.684 --> 00:14:56.225
But Newsom brings it upon himself.

320
00:14:56.347 --> 00:15:01.975
He does say some good things, and he does
say what everybody else wants to say, but

321
00:15:01.975 --> 00:15:03.975
he shouldn't say it as governor of
California,

322
00:15:03.975 --> 00:15:06.936
which is one of the top economies in the
world outside of countries.

323
00:15:06.960 --> 00:15:10.225
I think it's the 14th biggest economy in
the world or something like that.

324
00:15:10.475 --> 00:15:14.632
But anyway, talking about Viv, as you
were, Mark Carney being, you know,

325
00:15:14.647 --> 00:15:19.475
the most conservative and the most
reasonable and the most this and that,

326
00:15:19.475 --> 00:15:21.475
having a CV.

327
00:15:21.475 --> 00:15:22.164
that is the envy of most.

328
00:15:22.305 --> 00:15:24.789
Another person, and I think David, you
would agree with me,

329
00:15:25.246 --> 00:15:30.613
that projects stability and
reasonableness, if that's a word,

330
00:15:30.973 --> 00:15:32.793
is Christine Lagarde, I would say.

331
00:15:33.277 --> 00:15:37.996
I'd say she's, I don't know if she's
particularly good as the head of the ECB,

332
00:15:38.496 --> 00:15:41.949
but she certainly comes across as being
very, very organised.

333
00:15:42.262 --> 00:15:44.434
And what happened last night was very
interesting.

334
00:15:44.465 --> 00:15:48.043
European Central Bank President Christine
Lagarde abruptly walked out.

335
00:15:48.423 --> 00:15:54.510
of a high-profile private dinner at the
World Economic Forum in Davos after US

336
00:15:54.510 --> 00:15:56.510
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

337
00:15:56.510 --> 00:15:59.115
harshly criticised Europe's economic
underperformance, according to media

338
00:15:59.115 --> 00:15:59.151
reports.

339
00:15:59.350 --> 00:16:02.881
Now, David, you're going on about this,
and you're starting to believe it as well,

340
00:16:02.936 --> 00:16:09.147
that we in Europe here are having siestas
in the afternoon and four-day weeks and

341
00:16:09.147 --> 00:16:11.147
things like that,

342
00:16:11.147 --> 00:16:13.147
which is true to a certain extent.

343
00:16:13.147 --> 00:16:15.209
But Lutnick had a full go at Europe, and
she just walked out of this dinner.

344
00:16:16.128 --> 00:16:16.868
Which is unheard of.

345
00:16:16.869 --> 00:16:18.369
I wish it had been seen.

346
00:16:18.571 --> 00:16:21.033
I wish it had been seen and not a closed
doors dinner.

347
00:16:21.233 --> 00:16:26.139
But a big rift has emerged between two
economic superpowers, don't you think?

348
00:16:27.779 --> 00:16:29.178
You know what I can understand.

349
00:16:29.217 --> 00:16:33.748
I mean, it's she's not directly
responsible for that.

350
00:16:33.779 --> 00:16:36.170
She's trying to change things.

351
00:16:36.201 --> 00:16:40.123
I mean, the post-war period in Europe was,
you know,

352
00:16:40.233 --> 00:16:44.420
leaned and still does lean towards
socialism for whatever reason.

353
00:16:45.668 --> 00:16:47.028
You're not going to change it.

354
00:16:48.751 --> 00:16:50.993
Yes, they could have been a little more
aggressive.

355
00:16:51.013 --> 00:16:56.802
You know, policies haven't really
favoured, I mean, they haven't tried hard

356
00:16:56.802 --> 00:16:58.802
enough and they've had,

357
00:16:58.802 --> 00:16:59.825
it's been more a political issue than an
economic issue.

358
00:17:00.200 --> 00:17:06.685
You know, it'll take time, you know, but
the way they go at them in a personal way,

359
00:17:06.685 --> 00:17:08.685
I can understand Christine Lagarde.

360
00:17:08.685 --> 00:17:08.716
You know, he's gone, and these are the
allies.

361
00:17:08.997 --> 00:17:10.247
I mean, this is the West.

362
00:17:10.747 --> 00:17:14.341
Rather help them, you know, instead of
accusing them.

363
00:17:14.751 --> 00:17:21.016
of, you know, just leaning on the US and
crooking them or whatever they have

364
00:17:21.016 --> 00:17:23.016
described them.

365
00:17:23.016 --> 00:17:23.219
Yes, we know that Europe has lagged.

366
00:17:23.540 --> 00:17:28.063
And we know, you know, Mertz from Germany
is trying to change it.

367
00:17:28.087 --> 00:17:29.524
He's trying to turn things around.

368
00:17:29.868 --> 00:17:34.383
I'm very impressed with the Finnish prime
minister as well, who's also a very

369
00:17:34.383 --> 00:17:36.383
articulate man.

370
00:17:36.383 --> 00:17:38.259
But the way they go about it is so
insulting.

371
00:17:38.555 --> 00:17:43.696
You know, if I was Christine Lagarde, I'd
also say, go away, you know.

372
00:17:44.175 --> 00:17:50.395
I know they can't continue without, you
know, they can't make it without America.

373
00:17:50.395 --> 00:17:52.395
They need America.

374
00:17:52.395 --> 00:17:54.395
The West needs America.

375
00:17:54.395 --> 00:17:57.778
But the way he went at Biden, he called
him the most stupid man or, you know,

376
00:17:57.817 --> 00:17:59.755
the most awful man that he ever knew.

377
00:17:59.778 --> 00:18:01.372
You know, those kind of things.

378
00:18:01.716 --> 00:18:05.106
To criticize a former president like that,
no.

379
00:18:05.481 --> 00:18:08.216
You know, and people have got every right
to walk out.

380
00:18:08.217 --> 00:18:09.434
He just hasn't got manners.

381
00:18:10.700 --> 00:18:12.794
So good for her.

382
00:18:13.560 --> 00:18:14.260
Yes.

383
00:18:14.260 --> 00:18:15.523
He's got to be taught a lesson.

384
00:18:15.542 --> 00:18:17.505
You know, you can't just say those things.

385
00:18:18.247 --> 00:18:19.290
And this was an interesting.

386
00:18:19.349 --> 00:18:24.017
And his bankruptcies, you know, if you go
at all the businesses that he's ruined.

387
00:18:24.697 --> 00:18:25.397
Okay.

388
00:18:26.132 --> 00:18:31.075
But anyway, you should never start on
Trump.

389
00:18:31.415 --> 00:18:36.259
This was an important Davos, I think,
because it's a Davos like no other,

390
00:18:36.344 --> 00:18:41.633
where it has become exactly what Mark
Carney described the world.

391
00:18:43.149 --> 00:18:44.509
It's not rules based anymore.

392
00:18:44.524 --> 00:18:45.493
It's just a free for all.

393
00:18:45.571 --> 00:18:49.180
Larry Fink of BlackRock hosted a dinner
for 100 global leaders.

394
00:18:49.540 --> 00:18:52.774
And it was just it was just I don't know
what it was.

395
00:18:52.790 --> 00:18:54.524
It was like a town hall event, you know.

396
00:18:54.835 --> 00:18:57.677
where everyone stands up and says what
they like and shouts at each other.

397
00:18:57.817 --> 00:18:58.679
Very sad indeed.

398
00:18:58.978 --> 00:19:02.021
David, I have to stay with you very
briefly because this is the five o'clock

399
00:19:02.021 --> 00:19:02.162
shadow.

400
00:19:02.162 --> 00:19:04.263
So we've got to look at a couple of sets
of results.

401
00:19:04.264 --> 00:19:06.966
And we look at Sassl, the share price up
14% today.

402
00:19:07.349 --> 00:19:10.028
And also Clix came out with a trading
update.

403
00:19:10.052 --> 00:19:11.130
I think it was down 6%.

404
00:19:11.755 --> 00:19:16.724
And Viv, I'll come to you on the couple of
opinions that I've had about South Africa

405
00:19:16.724 --> 00:19:18.724
for 2026.

406
00:19:18.724 --> 00:19:18.911
But David, first of all, those two sets of
results.

407
00:19:19.146 --> 00:19:20.364
Did you have a chance to look at them?

408
00:19:20.974 --> 00:19:21.786
Not in deep.

409
00:19:22.224 --> 00:19:23.708
I've still got my family here from them.

410
00:19:23.959 --> 00:19:24.659
Australia.

411
00:19:24.659 --> 00:19:26.201
I just took them back to the airport and
that.

412
00:19:26.562 --> 00:19:32.367
But Cecil was a Cecil had come under
pressure because it had been downgraded to

413
00:19:32.367 --> 00:19:32.528
a cell.

414
00:19:32.687 --> 00:19:35.414
I think it was either JP Morgan or one of
the big houses.

415
00:19:35.968 --> 00:19:42.640
And I think the trading statement, I
haven't genuinely not looked at it in

416
00:19:42.640 --> 00:19:44.640
great detail,

417
00:19:44.640 --> 00:19:46.359
but probably better than everybody
expected and it bounced slightly.

418
00:19:46.625 --> 00:19:47.609
It's still under pressure.

419
00:19:47.937 --> 00:19:49.640
It's still not going anywhere.

420
00:19:49.641 --> 00:19:50.890
I'm not mad about Cecil.

421
00:19:51.453 --> 00:19:57.820
What I do just to you To digress slightly
on that, I like where BHP is going, where

422
00:19:57.820 --> 00:19:59.820
Anglo is going,

423
00:19:59.820 --> 00:20:00.081
and where even Glencore is going.

424
00:20:00.562 --> 00:20:05.870
If you feel compelled to go into that area
and to find a miner,

425
00:20:05.925 --> 00:20:08.753
rather go for the diversifiers who are
starting to look better.

426
00:20:09.050 --> 00:20:12.253
I think clicks are something we've been
worrying about for some time now,

427
00:20:15.191 --> 00:20:16.816
especially on that side.

428
00:20:16.831 --> 00:20:21.128
We've been talking about it for the other
economy is not really.

429
00:20:21.955 --> 00:20:28.660
The retail side is not really kind of
matching up to the expectations that

430
00:20:28.660 --> 00:20:28.763
everybody

431
00:20:28.763 --> 00:20:30.121
has had about the economy.

432
00:20:31.262 --> 00:20:34.527
I don't know why specifically Clix has
been under pressure.

433
00:20:34.528 --> 00:20:36.973
I don't know whether Viv's had a look at
it.

434
00:20:38.644 --> 00:20:40.238
Maybe it was just a little bit overrated.

435
00:20:41.176 --> 00:20:47.847
You know what, it's a good business, but
it was a trading update for the period,

436
00:20:50.066 --> 00:20:51.082
for 20-odd weeks.

437
00:20:51.523 --> 00:20:52.504
I don't know what it is.

438
00:20:52.505 --> 00:20:56.728
You know, when you look at it, sales were
slightly down or the comparatives were

439
00:20:56.728 --> 00:20:57.068
down,

440
00:20:57.068 --> 00:21:00.329
but why they knocked it by that amount, I
don't know.

441
00:21:00.509 --> 00:21:01.209
Okay.

442
00:21:01.209 --> 00:21:07.532
Next week, we'll be talking about a series
of interviews that I've conducted with

443
00:21:07.532 --> 00:21:09.532
people from one particular firm.

444
00:21:09.532 --> 00:21:13.782
I can't talk about the people involved or
the content yet because they haven't

445
00:21:13.782 --> 00:21:15.782
published it themselves on their own

446
00:21:15.782 --> 00:21:17.782
intranet or whatever it is.

447
00:21:17.782 --> 00:21:19.782
So I have to wait till next week.

448
00:21:19.782 --> 00:21:21.782
But Viv, one of the things that has popped
up is.

449
00:21:21.782 --> 00:21:26.188
the view on South Africa for this year,
whether it be market-wise or

450
00:21:26.188 --> 00:21:28.188
macroeconomic-wise.

451
00:21:28.188 --> 00:21:32.672
And one person said, it's all very well
being bullish about South Africa and

452
00:21:32.672 --> 00:21:34.672
getting off the grey list, etc.

453
00:21:34.672 --> 00:21:38.516
But bear in mind on the same day that
South Africa was taken off the grey list,

454
00:21:38.516 --> 00:21:40.516
so was Burkina Faso.

455
00:21:40.516 --> 00:21:43.110
And that was the way this person said, you
know, don't get too excited about it.

456
00:21:43.111 --> 00:21:49.464
And if the rand is where it is, it's
because the dollar's weak and commodities

457
00:21:49.464 --> 00:21:51.464
and commodities on are very cyclical.

458
00:21:51.464 --> 00:21:54.831
So no, not particularly interested in
South African stocks.

459
00:21:54.929 --> 00:21:56.975
Viv, what would you say about that?

460
00:21:57.069 --> 00:22:02.460
I know it's not your excitement area at
the moment, but still an important part of

461
00:22:02.460 --> 00:22:02.536
your business.

462
00:22:03.538 --> 00:22:08.210
Look, I mean, South Africa was, I think,
the third or fourth best performing stock

463
00:22:08.210 --> 00:22:10.210
market in 2025 in the world.

464
00:22:10.210 --> 00:22:15.194
It was really, really good performance,
driven by, of course, commodities,

465
00:22:15.194 --> 00:22:17.194
especially gold, platinum, et cetera,
recovering quite nicely.

466
00:22:17.194 --> 00:22:22.470
That being said, I think the IMF's most
recent estimate for growth in South Africa

467
00:22:22.470 --> 00:22:24.470
this year is like 1.4%,

468
00:22:24.470 --> 00:22:27.552
which is, if you think about it, I mean,
the US is doing 4 plus percent and we're

469
00:22:27.552 --> 00:22:29.552
doing 1.4%.

470
00:22:29.552 --> 00:22:31.755
That differential is insane, considering
how poor we are compared to how rich they

471
00:22:31.755 --> 00:22:32.158
are.

472
00:22:32.802 --> 00:22:39.161
There obviously has to be some kind of
follow through on the vibe shift that

473
00:22:39.161 --> 00:22:41.161
happened after the election that we saw a
couple of years ago.

474
00:22:41.161 --> 00:22:42.036
Yes, we have seen load shedding and yes,
we have seen.

475
00:22:42.307 --> 00:22:43.468
the wrong gets stronger, et cetera.

476
00:22:43.489 --> 00:22:44.748
But we haven't seen growth tick off.

477
00:22:44.749 --> 00:22:46.010
We haven't seen unemployment fall.

478
00:22:46.491 --> 00:22:53.455
And until we see those things happening, I
mean, we're going to be very nervous about

479
00:22:53.455 --> 00:22:55.455
South Africa and about what's been, you
know, especially things like the retail

480
00:22:55.455 --> 00:22:57.455
sector, et cetera,

481
00:22:57.455 --> 00:22:59.455
things that are dependent on the South
African economy.

482
00:22:59.455 --> 00:23:02.432
The things that are not dependent on the
economy, things like the gold price, the

483
00:23:02.432 --> 00:23:04.432
platinum price, and the gold and platinum
stocks that are there for, I think those

484
00:23:04.432 --> 00:23:06.432
things are, you know,

485
00:23:06.432 --> 00:23:08.432
more reasonable investments at the moment.

486
00:23:08.432 --> 00:23:10.776
But if you had to give me a choice, I
would basically be staying away from a lot

487
00:23:10.776 --> 00:23:12.776
of the South African in companies until I
can see our growth rate actually start to

488
00:23:12.776 --> 00:23:14.776
increase.

489
00:23:14.776 --> 00:23:16.776
Well said.

490
00:23:16.776 --> 00:23:18.776
OK, let's have a look at some numbers now.

491
00:23:18.776 --> 00:23:20.776
Dollar round is 16.19.

492
00:23:20.776 --> 00:23:22.776
The British pound against the round 21.81.

493
00:23:22.776 --> 00:23:24.776
The euro round 18.99 now.

494
00:23:24.776 --> 00:23:26.776
Look at that.

495
00:23:26.776 --> 00:23:28.776
It was 23 about six months ago, I think it
was.

496
00:23:28.776 --> 00:23:30.776
Extraordinary performance from the round
against the euro.

497
00:23:30.776 --> 00:23:31.819
Euro dollar, though, the euro is doing
well by half a percent, 117.30 now.

498
00:23:32.616 --> 00:23:33.334
On to commodities.

499
00:23:33.397 --> 00:23:39.428
Gold price $4,843, up $6, getting very,
very volatile at these high levels.

500
00:23:40.199 --> 00:23:42.482
unusual to see $100 swings in a day.

501
00:23:42.501 --> 00:23:47.486
The platinum price, $2,525, up another $45
an ounce.

502
00:23:47.927 --> 00:23:54.490
And palladium is just below $1,900, up
about $16, just under 1%. Now,

503
00:23:54.677 --> 00:23:56.177
all important other commodities.

504
00:23:56.208 --> 00:23:58.537
Where are they on my screen here?

505
00:23:58.552 --> 00:24:00.177
Where's the CRB index gone?

506
00:24:00.599 --> 00:24:02.146
Okay, let's have a look at that.

507
00:24:02.646 --> 00:24:09.375
Okay, now then, I've got to find the
All-important oil price, which is,

508
00:24:09.375 --> 00:24:11.375
gentlemen,

509
00:24:11.375 --> 00:24:15.041
after what's been happening geopolitically
and the threat in Iran, it's been behaving

510
00:24:15.041 --> 00:24:17.041
itself.

511
00:24:17.041 --> 00:24:20.025
The Brent crude oil price today is down
1.75%, $64.09 per barrel.

512
00:24:20.463 --> 00:24:24.143
West Texas, $59.49, down 1.9%.

513
00:24:24.518 --> 00:24:27.846
Natural gas prices up 12.5%, incidentally.

514
00:24:28.190 --> 00:24:33.361
Copper, which is terribly important now
that Anglo-American has done its thing

515
00:24:33.393 --> 00:24:35.236
corporate-wise into a copper company.

516
00:24:35.516 --> 00:24:37.959
$5.73 per pound, that's down

517
00:24:38.600 --> 00:24:45.465
0.6%. It was about $6.30 per pound last
week, so coming off the boil quite

518
00:24:45.465 --> 00:24:47.465
recently.

519
00:24:47.465 --> 00:24:50.308
The US 10-year bond yield, that's been the
interesting one.

520
00:24:51.090 --> 00:24:54.730
In November, end of November, beginning of
December, it was below 4%, now

521
00:24:56.012 --> 00:24:58.902
4.26%. It got to 4.30% yesterday.

522
00:24:59.293 --> 00:25:00.715
That is a big, big move.

523
00:25:00.716 --> 00:25:01.840
S&P 500.

524
00:25:02.356 --> 00:25:09.137
6,933, up a third of a percent today, has
been above 7,000 this year.

525
00:25:09.719 --> 00:25:12.958
And Bitcoin, I don't like the look of
Bitcoin at all.

526
00:25:13.020 --> 00:25:17.356
It's 88,850, was 96,000 three days ago.

527
00:25:17.778 --> 00:25:21.965
And yeah, it's coming towards the, it's
coming towards recent lows, actually.

528
00:25:22.340 --> 00:25:23.153
So that's it, Viv.

529
00:25:23.294 --> 00:25:29.168
Any other prices that you like that have
been, or don't like, that have been

530
00:25:29.168 --> 00:25:31.168
influenced by the AI people,

531
00:25:31.168 --> 00:25:31.918
the AI luminaries that have been speaking
in Davos, like...

532
00:25:32.284 --> 00:25:33.485
Jensen Wang, for example?

533
00:25:35.647 --> 00:25:36.868
I was so proud last year.

534
00:25:37.790 --> 00:25:40.508
I bought Micron, the stock, right?

535
00:25:40.509 --> 00:25:41.209
Yes.

536
00:25:41.209 --> 00:25:42.633
250 plus percent.

537
00:25:43.196 --> 00:25:46.376
And then today I look at SanDisk and I
think to myself, I picked the wrong memory

538
00:25:46.376 --> 00:25:46.497
company.

539
00:25:47.579 --> 00:25:53.727
SanDisk in the last year, right, for my
Micron, did 250 plus percent, did 1,250

540
00:25:53.727 --> 00:25:55.727
plus percent.

541
00:25:56.321 --> 00:25:58.586
So I got the memory story right.

542
00:25:58.836 --> 00:25:59.946
I picked the wrong memory company.

543
00:26:01.228 --> 00:26:08.136
ai jealousy coming in you know what i in
fact um i was looking at uh when

544
00:26:08.476 --> 00:26:15.019
when last year lindsay people started to
say to me oh and videos too rich you know

545
00:26:15.019 --> 00:26:17.019
please take some out and

546
00:26:17.019 --> 00:26:20.128
get out of it and i said okay well you've
got to remain exposed

547
00:26:20.129 --> 00:26:24.644
to semiconductors and there's something
called the the SOX, S-O-X-X,

548
00:26:25.112 --> 00:26:28.659
which is an ETF with no more than 30 odd
companies in it.

549
00:26:28.722 --> 00:26:29.690
So it's very tight.

550
00:26:30.352 --> 00:26:36.776
But if you look at that, Viv, and this is
where I'm so happy that we went into it

551
00:26:36.776 --> 00:26:38.776
because it's got all of them.

552
00:26:38.776 --> 00:26:40.776
It's got Micron.

553
00:26:40.776 --> 00:26:40.964
It's got all the companies, AMD, Broadcom,
you name.

554
00:26:41.542 --> 00:26:44.042
It's got a mixture of all of them in good
proportion.

555
00:26:44.104 --> 00:26:50.730
Now, what's interesting is that because of
Micron's run, it now becomes the biggest

556
00:26:50.730 --> 00:26:52.730
holding in the SOX.

557
00:26:52.730 --> 00:26:58.042
And you've got almost a 10% or 7%, 8%
exposure to Micron in addition to NVIDIA,

558
00:26:58.058 --> 00:26:59.214
in addition to everything.

559
00:26:59.276 --> 00:27:00.952
that but It was a great call.

560
00:27:01.072 --> 00:27:07.412
I must say that, you know, having done
that, I think the other one is Samsung as

561
00:27:07.412 --> 00:27:09.412
well, which is the other area.

562
00:27:09.412 --> 00:27:09.951
It's Gehainix as well.

563
00:27:10.334 --> 00:27:17.053
It's basically, what the thing is, is just
to all the stuff that they're doing right

564
00:27:17.053 --> 00:27:19.053
now, video, have you seen the new video
apps, by the way?

565
00:27:19.053 --> 00:27:21.053
They are shockingly good.

566
00:27:21.053 --> 00:27:23.053
Okay.

567
00:27:23.053 --> 00:27:26.615
I am not picking up videos immediately
anymore as being AI until the circumstance

568
00:27:26.615 --> 00:27:28.615
is just so weird.

569
00:27:28.615 --> 00:27:30.615
That's okay.

570
00:27:30.615 --> 00:27:32.615
It must be AI.

571
00:27:32.615 --> 00:27:32.904
But if you just put a video that could
pass, you know, like, like master by just

572
00:27:32.904 --> 00:27:34.904
plain logic, I would,

573
00:27:34.904 --> 00:27:35.346
I would be very difficult to find out
whether it's real or not.

574
00:27:35.744 --> 00:27:39.643
Those video kind of things, the other kind
of stuff is doing right now, those things

575
00:27:39.643 --> 00:27:41.643
take a lot of memory.

576
00:27:41.643 --> 00:27:41.666
And that's what this stuff is really
playing into.

577
00:27:41.908 --> 00:27:47.221
And I think if you think of what people
are going to be doing going forward, it is

578
00:27:47.221 --> 00:27:49.221
a video in terms of creating your content,
etc.

579
00:27:49.221 --> 00:27:53.815
I mean, you've got to see the new masking
apps where you basically put a filter on

580
00:27:53.815 --> 00:27:55.815
that look like somebody else.

581
00:27:55.815 --> 00:28:01.405
There's one with the cast of Stranger
Things, if you watch that TV show, and it

582
00:28:01.405 --> 00:28:03.405
is unspotable.

583
00:28:03.405 --> 00:28:05.108
Unless you knew who these people were, you
would think they were just normally doing

584
00:28:05.108 --> 00:28:05.206
what they're doing.

585
00:28:05.249 --> 00:28:05.949
You know what I mean?

586
00:28:06.788 --> 00:28:07.764
It's amazingly good.

587
00:28:08.171 --> 00:28:10.171
And they're all fitting into this thing.

588
00:28:10.444 --> 00:28:12.444
And I don't see how this stops going
forward.

589
00:28:12.882 --> 00:28:15.475
Right now, even we're seeing, I think
maybe supply might increase in the future.

590
00:28:15.476 --> 00:28:16.632
This is a manufactured product.

591
00:28:17.022 --> 00:28:22.022
But I mean, the demand for these
companies' products are going to be

592
00:28:22.022 --> 00:28:24.022
exponentially into the future.

593
00:28:24.022 --> 00:28:24.572
Viv, scaring me again, so I've got to come
back down to earth.

594
00:28:24.613 --> 00:28:30.074
On the JSC today, Sassel up 14%,
Coronation up nearly 7%, MTN up nearly 6%,

595
00:28:30.496 --> 00:28:34.152
Implats up 5.3%, and Truas up 5.25% on the
downside.

596
00:28:34.457 --> 00:28:40.683
Clicks down 6.3%, Anglo Gold Ashanti
leading the gold miners down 6%,

597
00:28:40.683 --> 00:28:42.683
Goldfields down 4.75%,

598
00:28:42.683 --> 00:28:44.574
Harmony 3.4%, and DRD Gold down 3.4%.

599
00:28:44.575 --> 00:28:46.980
Does that mean that they're saying that
the gold price has peaked?

600
00:28:47.324 --> 00:28:48.024
Maybe they do.

601
00:28:48.074 --> 00:28:49.152
Sometimes the gold price...

602
00:28:49.460 --> 00:28:51.546
is led by the miners.

603
00:28:51.607 --> 00:28:52.307
I don't know.

604
00:28:52.570 --> 00:28:55.279
Quick one, David, because we've got 30
seconds, please.

605
00:28:55.599 --> 00:28:57.908
I think it's looking stretched.

606
00:28:58.450 --> 00:29:01.673
You know, those miners, how far can we
actually push it?

607
00:29:02.034 --> 00:29:05.938
It's not showing any major weakness, but I
mean, how far can you really push them?

608
00:29:06.317 --> 00:29:09.184
You know, I'm saying the same thing for
the Rand as well.

609
00:29:09.497 --> 00:29:11.380
Maybe it's time we bought the U.S.

610
00:29:11.559 --> 00:29:14.731
Treasury, you know, 10 years and sold the
South African.

611
00:29:15.028 --> 00:29:19.528
I think I said that to you on Monday
night, but it might be a decent swing.

612
00:29:19.575 --> 00:29:25.638
I'm not a trader, but, you know, I'd
rather be in the 425 or 426 for the 10

613
00:29:25.638 --> 00:29:27.638
year rather than.

614
00:29:27.638 --> 00:29:28.874
The 825 for the South African.

615
00:29:28.875 --> 00:29:32.954
Okay, so that's the hedge fund manager in
Shapiro coming out.

616
00:29:33.435 --> 00:29:34.317
You heard it first here.

617
00:29:34.536 --> 00:29:36.497
Gentlemen, thank you very much for your
time.

618
00:29:36.638 --> 00:29:39.896
Viv Govender is from RAND Swiss, the
award-winning RAND Swiss.

619
00:29:40.200 --> 00:29:43.185
David Shapiro from Sessom and Securities,
both in Johannesburg.

620
00:29:43.435 --> 00:29:44.982
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

621
00:29:45.825 --> 00:29:52.763
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

622
00:29:52.763 --> 00:29:54.763
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

623
00:29:54.763 --> 00:29:57.272
position, or opinion of any other agency,
organization, employer,

624
00:29:57.614 --> 00:30:01.456
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

625
00:30:01.937 --> 00:30:08.905
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

626
00:30:08.905 --> 00:30:10.905
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

627
00:30:10.905 --> 00:30:15.085
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

628
00:30:15.085 --> 00:30:17.085
change, revision,

629
00:30:17.085 --> 00:30:17.226
and rethinking at any time.

630
00:30:17.538 --> 00:30:19.929
Please do not hold us to them in
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