WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.408 --> 00:00:04.549
You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

2
00:00:05.290 --> 00:00:11.832
The JSC has closed its doors for another
day so it's time for the 5 o'clock shadow

3
00:00:11.832 --> 00:00:13.832
and for the first time on a Wednesday in
2026,

4
00:00:13.832 --> 00:00:18.534
it's the 5 o'clock shadow with Skalk Lowe,
Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth in Cape

5
00:00:18.534 --> 00:00:20.534
Town, Old Oak Division.

6
00:00:20.534 --> 00:00:24.556
Now Skalk, I think about you every day and
it's not because of you taking up golf or

7
00:00:26.057 --> 00:00:32.662
other matters which need not detain us, is
because every time I look at my screen or

8
00:00:32.662 --> 00:00:34.662
I get a message from someone,

9
00:00:34.662 --> 00:00:34.964
it's always to do with commodities.

10
00:00:35.004 --> 00:00:37.326
And it's literally every single day.

11
00:00:37.346 --> 00:00:42.531
And I'm looking at a graph of the CRB
index, but I don't want to start with the

12
00:00:42.531 --> 00:00:44.531
overall picture.

13
00:00:44.531 --> 00:00:46.674
I wanna start with what was our favorite
last year, and that is gold.

14
00:00:47.014 --> 00:00:53.600
Incredible, 4,667, I think was the high
that printed intraday

15
00:00:54.200 --> 00:00:55.341
since we've last spoken.

16
00:00:55.981 --> 00:00:56.761
Who can believe it?

17
00:00:57.862 --> 00:01:01.943
I mean, I don't want to say I would not
believe it,

18
00:01:02.324 --> 00:01:09.126
because naturally you and I had this
conversation, and I've been positive on

19
00:01:09.126 --> 00:01:11.126
gold for many moons, and I haven't lost
that,

20
00:01:11.126 --> 00:01:13.368
let's call it, somebody asked me this
morning, have you started selling any of

21
00:01:13.368 --> 00:01:15.368
your gold positions?

22
00:01:15.368 --> 00:01:17.368
And the answer is no.

23
00:01:17.368 --> 00:01:19.368
And we'll get back to that.

24
00:01:19.368 --> 00:01:22.392
But as you mentioned, gold, 72%
year-on-year.

25
00:01:22.812 --> 00:01:28.836
I mean, the poor man's gold, silver, 192%,
close to being a two-bagger.

26
00:01:30.257 --> 00:01:34.040
And then we went into 2025.

27
00:01:34.041 --> 00:01:39.443
It took up to April for the ugly
stepsisters.

28
00:01:39.964 --> 00:01:44.787
And when we turned back the clock 17 years
or 16 years ago,

29
00:01:45.107 --> 00:01:52.052
it was definitely not the ugly stepsisters
because you would have paid more than

30
00:01:52.052 --> 00:01:54.052
double, double the gold

31
00:01:54.052 --> 00:01:56.052
to get platinum.

32
00:01:56.052 --> 00:01:58.518
And then platinum took the pattern in
April and just started running.

33
00:01:59.098 --> 00:02:00.159
And year on year, that's what?

34
00:02:00.160 --> 00:02:03.222
153% up as well.

35
00:02:04.483 --> 00:02:08.166
But when you look at palladium, palladium
is also, what was it?

36
00:02:08.167 --> 00:02:11.349
108, 109% rhodium up

37
00:02:12.250 --> 00:02:18.956
113%. And why I'm mentioning these
commodities because it's very important

38
00:02:18.956 --> 00:02:20.956
because...

39
00:02:20.956 --> 00:02:22.956
All of these commodities,

40
00:02:22.956 --> 00:02:27.965
we'd be either the top producer in the
world or the second largest producer in

41
00:02:27.965 --> 00:02:29.965
the world or in

42
00:02:29.965 --> 00:02:31.287
gold's case, the eighth largest producer
in the world.

43
00:02:32.467 --> 00:02:36.309
Hence the fact where a lot of people say,
well, Rand 1640 odd levels.

44
00:02:36.330 --> 00:02:37.210
I went, why?

45
00:02:37.390 --> 00:02:38.391
Isn't that way too strong?

46
00:02:38.731 --> 00:02:39.431
Hell no.

47
00:02:39.731 --> 00:02:40.472
Hell no.

48
00:02:40.896 --> 00:02:42.016
No, it's on a run.

49
00:02:42.677 --> 00:02:45.018
This is, to me, it's a secular bull
market.

50
00:02:45.058 --> 00:02:50.480
But anyway, and you didn't mention copper
or did you mention copper because you were

51
00:02:50.480 --> 00:02:52.480
rattling off the metals,

52
00:02:52.480 --> 00:02:57.363
but copper going as well and coinciding or
not so much coinciding, but along with

53
00:02:57.823 --> 00:03:00.484
Anglo-American reinventing itself.

54
00:03:00.824 --> 00:03:07.807
It's been doing it over the years, but it
suddenly reinvented itself as a copper

55
00:03:07.807 --> 00:03:09.807
company, I suppose, with the tech
corporate activity.

56
00:03:09.807 --> 00:03:10.288
Yeah, but spare a thought for them.

57
00:03:10.752 --> 00:03:13.034
I mean, when did they get rid of Volterra?

58
00:03:13.035 --> 00:03:13.875
Oh, Volterra, yeah.

59
00:03:13.895 --> 00:03:14.595
They...

60
00:03:14.595 --> 00:03:18.919
*laughter* A class half fun story, isn't
it?

61
00:03:18.959 --> 00:03:20.360
Isn't it great that we've got copper?

62
00:03:20.520 --> 00:03:21.220
Yeah.

63
00:03:21.220 --> 00:03:22.982
Isn't it horrible that we don't have white
metals?

64
00:03:24.123 --> 00:03:26.085
Yeah When did they get rid of it?

65
00:03:26.086 --> 00:03:28.307
It was February last year, we just
mentioned.

66
00:03:28.427 --> 00:03:29.127
At the bottom.

67
00:03:29.127 --> 00:03:31.049
Platinum did absolutely nothing.

68
00:03:31.069 --> 00:03:32.710
It was actually quite underprecious.

69
00:03:32.730 --> 00:03:38.956
Stayed at these $900 per ounce levels and
then they got rid of Volterra

70
00:03:39.636 --> 00:03:42.158
the platinum miners just went like, "Okay,
thank you very much.

71
00:03:42.198 --> 00:03:44.080
There we go." That was a sign.

72
00:03:44.460 --> 00:03:50.525
But it's very interesting and it's so good
for South Africa because no matter what

73
00:03:50.525 --> 00:03:52.525
fancy economists say that we

74
00:03:52.525 --> 00:03:55.369
diversified our portfolio of economic
activity in South Africa, the fact is

75
00:03:55.789 --> 00:03:59.112
South Africa is still a commodity-based
economy.

76
00:03:59.452 --> 00:04:05.017
And if this run continues then the round
will be 1450 not 1650, don't you think?

77
00:04:05.357 --> 00:04:11.026
I love that you say 1450 because a lot of
people say, Oh, we could see 15 Rand

78
00:04:11.026 --> 00:04:11.265
levels.

79
00:04:11.306 --> 00:04:14.249
So let's just do a quick economics 101.

80
00:04:14.269 --> 00:04:21.134
I'm not going to give the full purchasing
power lesson because then this is going to

81
00:04:21.134 --> 00:04:23.134
be a typical 5 o'clock shadow,

82
00:04:23.134 --> 00:04:23.816
45 minute thing again.

83
00:04:24.077 --> 00:04:30.922
But purchasing power parity since 1994 and
I've used May 1994 for the specific reason

84
00:04:30.922 --> 00:04:31.182
that

85
00:04:31.182 --> 00:04:37.528
is the month that we've become a democracy
again and it's open to the world properly

86
00:04:37.528 --> 00:04:39.528
and there we go.

87
00:04:39.528 --> 00:04:39.951
So that's the base state that I use.

88
00:04:40.332 --> 00:04:45.960
And said, well when you use inflation
differentials, in this case South Africa

89
00:04:45.960 --> 00:04:47.960
and the US,

90
00:04:47.960 --> 00:04:49.605
up to now, end of December,

91
00:04:50.426 --> 00:04:53.571
then you get what the purchasing power
parity should be.

92
00:04:54.871 --> 00:05:00.413
But a lot of people said, well, you can't
do that because South Africa went onto the

93
00:05:00.413 --> 00:05:02.413
gray list.

94
00:05:02.413 --> 00:05:03.475
They had the Zondo Commission.

95
00:05:03.635 --> 00:05:04.975
They had so many other things.

96
00:05:05.255 --> 00:05:07.176
So that's why you've always had a premium.

97
00:05:07.177 --> 00:05:13.559
So I took the average premium over this
let's call it 32 years and I added it to

98
00:05:13.559 --> 00:05:15.559
this purchasing power parity

99
00:05:15.559 --> 00:05:16.940
levels, 14 Rand to the dollar.

100
00:05:17.740 --> 00:05:20.722
And a lot of people say it won't happen,
won't ever happen.

101
00:05:20.782 --> 00:05:24.303
Well, when you look at it over the past 20
years

102
00:05:24.523 --> 00:05:29.845
It's happened quite a few times where it
actually dipped below this, let's call it

103
00:05:29.845 --> 00:05:31.845
fair value mark.

104
00:05:31.845 --> 00:05:32.526
So I'm not going to be one of those
people.

105
00:05:32.907 --> 00:05:33.607
I can't remember.

106
00:05:33.607 --> 00:05:39.649
I think it was Irvin Ruud or somebody that
coined the phrase, I think 20 years ago.

107
00:05:41.810 --> 00:05:44.591
If you know where the RAND is going, you
don't know what the question is.

108
00:05:44.712 --> 00:05:49.614
So I'm not going to try and forecast the
RAND.

109
00:05:49.694 --> 00:05:52.875
Although I'm saying when you look at the
current RAND.

110
00:05:53.095 --> 00:05:55.576
values at 1640,

111
00:05:55.577 --> 00:06:01.479
the RAND is by no means overvalued or
let's call it undervalued currently.

112
00:06:01.599 --> 00:06:04.940
It's definitely still looking that it's
got some value.

113
00:06:05.340 --> 00:06:09.722
And when you get an environment where
because just look at our imports and

114
00:06:09.722 --> 00:06:09.883
exports.

115
00:06:09.883 --> 00:06:15.285
I don't know the exact figure, but I think
it was something like 30 billion more

116
00:06:15.285 --> 00:06:17.285
exported.

117
00:06:17.285 --> 00:06:18.246
And this is mostly commodities in
November.

118
00:06:18.846 --> 00:06:25.810
When you've got that and you're running
such a you know, large trade surplus,

119
00:06:26.890 --> 00:06:29.732
then I mean naturally your RAND should be
improving.

120
00:06:30.512 --> 00:06:35.936
And also it doesn't do it any harm to see
that the US dollar, although it's stalled

121
00:06:35.936 --> 00:06:37.936
a little bit,

122
00:06:37.936 --> 00:06:42.079
the US dollar is to me in the early stages
of a bear market, Skulk.

123
00:06:42.119 --> 00:06:48.623
I mean the RAND doesn't just trade against
the dollar of course, notably the euro as

124
00:06:48.623 --> 00:06:50.623
well, but the

125
00:06:50.623 --> 00:06:52.966
The fact is that the weaker dollar will
help the RAND strength.

126
00:06:53.426 --> 00:06:55.348
It's all set fair, I think.

127
00:06:55.448 --> 00:06:57.349
And let commodities carry on.

128
00:06:57.350 --> 00:07:03.033
And as I said earlier on, looking at my
CRB index, that's the Commodity Research

129
00:07:03.033 --> 00:07:05.033
Bureau Index,

130
00:07:05.033 --> 00:07:08.517
which is a basket of every single type of
commodity you can imagine, from palladium

131
00:07:08.517 --> 00:07:10.517
to eggs,

132
00:07:10.517 --> 00:07:11.699
from timber to bauxite to whatever you
want.

133
00:07:12.099 --> 00:07:17.063
It's all in this index in various degrees
of importance, energy, of course, being

134
00:07:17.063 --> 00:07:19.063
the most important.

135
00:07:19.063 --> 00:07:19.508
I'm looking at this thing and it's
breaking out, Skull.

136
00:07:19.568 --> 00:07:26.532
There's an upward sloping wedge if you're
a person that looks at graphs and it's at

137
00:07:26.532 --> 00:07:28.532
all-time record highs almost as we speak

138
00:07:28.532 --> 00:07:30.532
now.

139
00:07:30.532 --> 00:07:33.276
If it breaks out from these tops that it's
formed over the last year or so, then the

140
00:07:33.276 --> 00:07:35.276
sky's the limit.

141
00:07:35.276 --> 00:07:37.276
In fact, there's blue sky.

142
00:07:37.276 --> 00:07:39.276
It's just extraordinary.

143
00:07:39.276 --> 00:07:42.302
And just before I stopped rabbiting on, I
sent out a tweet in I think around about

144
00:07:42.302 --> 00:07:44.302
mid-October.

145
00:07:44.302 --> 00:07:44.443
That was when Silver first went through
50%.

146
00:07:44.703 --> 00:07:50.125
And it went straight to 51 and I said,
"No, this is too quick." And I said on X,

147
00:07:50.125 --> 00:07:50.244
I said,

148
00:07:50.585 --> 00:07:54.206
"Is it time to ring the bell for silver?"
In other words saying that's it now.

149
00:07:55.226 --> 00:08:00.828
Because it had gone from just around about
Liberation Day time below $30 an ounce.

150
00:08:00.868 --> 00:08:03.328
It nearly doubled in the space of a few
months.

151
00:08:03.669 --> 00:08:09.710
Now it's nearly doubled again since
mid-October to now to $91 per ounce.

152
00:08:10.131 --> 00:08:11.531
Astonishing stuff.

153
00:08:11.939 --> 00:08:13.299
I mean, the late Dr.

154
00:08:13.339 --> 00:08:16.320
Clive Ruffer used to tell me it would go
to 50 within his lifetime.

155
00:08:16.620 --> 00:08:18.461
Sadly, he didn't live to see it.

156
00:08:18.781 --> 00:08:20.621
But goodness me, the punters love silver.

157
00:08:21.822 --> 00:08:24.563
I would have loved to see his face in this
book.

158
00:08:24.823 --> 00:08:31.765
This is absolutely just for listeners that
haven't learned or just go and find some

159
00:08:31.766 --> 00:08:32.466
of his books.

160
00:08:32.485 --> 00:08:37.926
I mean, he was one of the biggest gold
lovers or gold advocates.

161
00:08:38.166 --> 00:08:42.448
I mean, yeah, it's… Sorry they couldn't
have seen this environment.

162
00:08:42.708 --> 00:08:43.588
Yeah, okay.

163
00:08:43.728 --> 00:08:47.009
Now, I haven't really been following gold
shares very much.

164
00:08:47.029 --> 00:08:49.270
I need South African and international
gold shares.

165
00:08:49.310 --> 00:08:51.350
Have they mirrored the performance of the
yellow metal?

166
00:08:52.271 --> 00:08:52.971
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

167
00:08:53.131 --> 00:08:55.992
Naturally, we actually did save it
somewhere.

168
00:08:56.012 --> 00:09:01.473
But most of these gold miners in 2025 did
over 200%.

169
00:09:02.454 --> 00:09:04.654
When you look at Anglo Gold, that gold
fields did.

170
00:09:05.014 --> 00:09:06.875
So, yeah.

171
00:09:06.999 --> 00:09:10.121
didn't just double up your money, you
tripled up your money in 2000.

172
00:09:10.542 --> 00:09:15.925
And I just want to get back one step
because I think it's very important that

173
00:09:15.925 --> 00:09:17.925
you mentioned, I mean,

174
00:09:17.925 --> 00:09:20.048
you said South Africa is still very much
of a commodity country.

175
00:09:20.949 --> 00:09:26.493
And you also mentioned that the S&P or US
market is in a,

176
00:09:26.913 --> 00:09:28.874
which you think could be a sort of a bear
mark.

177
00:09:29.655 --> 00:09:31.256
Now there's two things on that.

178
00:09:31.436 --> 00:09:38.156
The first thing is I had a look earlier
today where I, physically went and just

179
00:09:38.156 --> 00:09:40.156
say, well, what is this?

180
00:09:40.156 --> 00:09:42.156
Because back in the days,

181
00:09:42.156 --> 00:09:47.294
you actually had the resource index made
up close to 50% of the

182
00:09:47.873 --> 00:09:48.834
of the JSE All Share.

183
00:09:49.274 --> 00:09:56.218
And it dropped down, I can't remember
where, but I can recall something like 17

184
00:09:56.218 --> 00:09:58.218
or 18% levels six,

185
00:09:58.218 --> 00:10:00.218
seven years ago.

186
00:10:00.218 --> 00:10:01.581
That was when NASPERS process were in
their pump, as they say.

187
00:10:02.341 --> 00:10:04.722
Yeah, over 20% of the total index.

188
00:10:06.143 --> 00:10:07.284
Today, I went and had a look.

189
00:10:07.344 --> 00:10:11.526
It's getting close to 36 or 37%, getting
close to the 40% mark again.

190
00:10:11.546 --> 00:10:12.827
That's the resource index.

191
00:10:12.847 --> 00:10:16.969
And why that is important, you know, as we
sit here, and I'm not going to give it

192
00:10:16.969 --> 00:10:18.969
away yet, but

193
00:10:18.969 --> 00:10:23.751
The JSE All Share ended 2025 over 38% up
for the year,

194
00:10:23.811 --> 00:10:24.911
which was fantastic.

195
00:10:24.912 --> 00:10:30.433
Here we're sitting 14 days in.

196
00:10:30.933 --> 00:10:36.754
And again, the JSE is up over 4% year to
date.

197
00:10:37.855 --> 00:10:43.396
But very important when you look at the
JSE Resi, the resource index,

198
00:10:44.176 --> 00:10:48.146
as we sit here, they are now up Over 13%
year to date.

199
00:10:48.566 --> 00:10:51.526
And like I mentioned, that's close to 40%

200
00:10:51.527 --> 00:10:57.688
of the index is driven by these
commodities that is now running.

201
00:10:58.268 --> 00:10:59.849
And this is not the first time it's
happened.

202
00:10:59.869 --> 00:11:03.410
I love the word where you said it's a
secular bull market for the JSU.

203
00:11:03.411 --> 00:11:07.551
I love that word because we had a similar
trend.

204
00:11:07.911 --> 00:11:14.793
Because one thing that I've heard a lot
from some of my Leonard colleagues over

205
00:11:14.793 --> 00:11:16.793
the past few days is how

206
00:11:16.793 --> 00:11:18.793
many...

207
00:11:18.793 --> 00:11:20.793
of them are calling tops on gold.

208
00:11:20.793 --> 00:11:22.256
They're calling tops on the JSC saying,
"Well, JSC has done 38%.

209
00:11:22.656 --> 00:11:26.938
We shouldn't be seeing the same
performance again this year."

210
00:11:27.998 --> 00:11:31.860
And if you're gambling, man, most probably
right.

211
00:11:32.480 --> 00:11:33.981
But this wouldn't be the first time.

212
00:11:34.161 --> 00:11:38.102
When you look at that period beginning of
2000, I often refer to that.

213
00:11:38.503 --> 00:11:44.165
This is the period where we've had a
massive IT bubble very similar to the AA

214
00:11:44.165 --> 00:11:46.165
bubble now.

215
00:11:46.165 --> 00:11:51.411
or let's call it a run we have this
massive run the s p 500 did phenomenal and

216
00:11:51.491 --> 00:11:58.137
then then literally from 2000 onwards i
mean that period between um let's call it

217
00:11:58.138 --> 00:12:03.721
december december 1999 up to

218
00:12:04.802 --> 00:12:05.502
december

219
00:12:07.104 --> 00:12:12.589
2009 the the s p 500 yield a net negative
return over a 10-year period not

220
00:12:13.261 --> 00:12:18.402
A real return, we're talking about an
absolute return, negative return over a

221
00:12:18.402 --> 00:12:20.402
10-year period.

222
00:12:20.402 --> 00:12:23.204
But over that same 10-year period, South
Africa enjoyed two things.

223
00:12:23.264 --> 00:12:26.145
Firstly, they had one of the best bull
markets ever.

224
00:12:27.045 --> 00:12:32.066
Secondly, we also saw, like you just
mentioned, a massive, massive commodity

225
00:12:32.066 --> 00:12:32.126
run.

226
00:12:32.526 --> 00:12:35.887
We did very, very bad in 2003.

227
00:12:35.927 --> 00:12:37.108
We totally forgot about that.

228
00:12:37.128 --> 00:12:39.768
And then 2004, we recovered.

229
00:12:39.808 --> 00:12:41.209
Suddenly did 20%.

230
00:12:41.649 --> 00:12:48.554
In 2005, we did another 20% and everybody
said, "Ah, we shouldn't be doing that

231
00:12:48.554 --> 00:12:50.554
again in 2006."

232
00:12:50.554 --> 00:12:52.554
And then Mr.

233
00:12:52.554 --> 00:12:55.380
Marketers went like, "Hold my beer." It
went up 50% that year.

234
00:12:55.960 --> 00:12:57.541
And the following year, another 38%.

235
00:12:57.721 --> 00:13:02.785
So I think to the listeners out there, be
careful calling tops,

236
00:13:03.446 --> 00:13:07.369
calling bottoms in this market, thinking
the gold is finished.

237
00:13:07.709 --> 00:13:09.450
There's a reason why the gold is running.

238
00:13:09.451 --> 00:13:12.312
There's a reason why most of the… And a
new reason every day.

239
00:13:12.492 --> 00:13:15.495
I mean, that's an exaggeration, but Iran
is the latest reason.

240
00:13:15.496 --> 00:13:16.196
Exactly.

241
00:13:16.196 --> 00:13:17.576
It's quite astonishing.

242
00:13:17.856 --> 00:13:20.618
I have missed you, Skanko, I must say,
because you're the only person.

243
00:13:20.638 --> 00:13:25.642
I've only just got back from the kitchen
to make myself a cup of tea, and there you

244
00:13:25.642 --> 00:13:27.642
are.

245
00:13:27.642 --> 00:13:29.642
I didn't miss a thing.

246
00:13:29.642 --> 00:13:31.706
Some lovely statistics, and I can come in
with the Iran comment,

247
00:13:31.866 --> 00:13:35.109
having not listened to a word you just
said for the last three and a half

248
00:13:35.109 --> 00:13:35.269
minutes.

249
00:13:35.269 --> 00:13:35.810
Yeah.

250
00:13:36.009 --> 00:13:36.709
No, seriously.

251
00:13:36.990 --> 00:13:39.831
But you've got that button and you just
run with it as well.

252
00:13:39.832 --> 00:13:40.551
That's brilliant.

253
00:13:40.552 --> 00:13:46.934
It's exciting because in a year or two's
time we'll be talking about, I don't know,

254
00:13:46.934 --> 00:13:48.934
small and mid caps or something like that.

255
00:13:48.934 --> 00:13:50.934
Nothing as exciting as this.

256
00:13:50.934 --> 00:13:52.377
Speaking of which, I'm not going to get
into the other side of the South African

257
00:13:52.377 --> 00:13:52.396
market.

258
00:13:52.597 --> 00:13:54.718
You talk about nearly 40% being the resi.

259
00:13:55.018 --> 00:13:59.100
I want to talk about other companies or
other sectors that we might want to look

260
00:13:59.100 --> 00:13:59.420
at.

261
00:13:59.420 --> 00:14:01.341
But we'll do that next week.

262
00:14:01.701 --> 00:14:06.243
What's happening with this stock exchange
news service so far in 2026?

263
00:14:06.383 --> 00:14:12.165
Any announcements, any corporate activity,
any results coming out, any trading

264
00:14:12.165 --> 00:14:14.165
statements or is it too early?

265
00:14:14.165 --> 00:14:16.165
Yeah, it's a bit too early.

266
00:14:16.165 --> 00:14:18.208
It's a little bit light on data yet, but
we should be increasing.

267
00:14:18.468 --> 00:14:21.309
Yeah, there's going to be a few things
we're going to talk about besides resis.

268
00:14:22.609 --> 00:14:28.312
I think we should have a look at our local
retailers, but we'll have that discussion

269
00:14:28.312 --> 00:14:30.312
next week.

270
00:14:30.312 --> 00:14:35.456
Banks is going to have a massive, massive
And you're going to remind me next week

271
00:14:35.456 --> 00:14:37.456
because hopefully we'll have more

272
00:14:37.456 --> 00:14:38.679
information on this whole thing about,

273
00:14:39.420 --> 00:14:45.665
let's call it government or SOAP that want
to re-evaluate the way they calculate

274
00:14:45.665 --> 00:14:47.665
prime.

275
00:14:47.665 --> 00:14:49.665
the prime rate.

276
00:14:49.665 --> 00:14:51.019
I saw that, Stuart Theobald said something
about that on LinkedIn today and he says

277
00:14:51.019 --> 00:14:51.279
it's got

278
00:14:51.279 --> 00:14:54.680
nothing if you think it's going to mean
that interest rates are going to come down

279
00:14:54.680 --> 00:14:55.000
or

280
00:14:55.000 --> 00:15:01.262
your prime rate is going to come down if
you're a borrower think again but I

281
00:15:01.262 --> 00:15:03.262
haven't read the full article so do you
tell me your

282
00:15:03.262 --> 00:15:05.262
version of it?

283
00:15:05.262 --> 00:15:09.585
Let me I mean again we need to look at
history so grab yourself another cup of

284
00:15:09.585 --> 00:15:11.585
tea this is going to be a really

285
00:15:11.585 --> 00:15:16.232
quick one and you'll remember it back in
prior to 2001 I think it was in the

286
00:15:16.232 --> 00:15:18.232
Cristals days.

287
00:15:18.232 --> 00:15:23.197
I mean, the prime rate was set by the swap
going to the banks and say, you need to

288
00:15:23.197 --> 00:15:23.638
be.

289
00:15:23.638 --> 00:15:29.562
You need to be for this, let's call it so
effectively for the listeners that don't

290
00:15:29.562 --> 00:15:31.562
understand prime,

291
00:15:31.562 --> 00:15:33.746
prime is effectively only the amount that
they earn.

292
00:15:33.786 --> 00:15:34.706
That's they cut.

293
00:15:35.887 --> 00:15:36.668
They rebate.

294
00:15:36.708 --> 00:15:38.830
They kick back if you can sort of say.

295
00:15:39.190 --> 00:15:43.934
And that's been set at 3.5% since 2001.

296
00:15:44.246 --> 00:15:44.946
And why?

297
00:15:45.287 --> 00:15:51.612
Purely because prior to that, the banks,
the theory was the banks will put in a bit

298
00:15:51.612 --> 00:15:53.612
and say, well,

299
00:15:53.612 --> 00:15:53.934
I'll do 3%, I'll do 3.5%.

300
00:15:53.994 --> 00:15:59.318
And then eventually they will set that
difference, the prime rate.

301
00:16:00.239 --> 00:16:04.502
But the banks, there's so few banks in
South Africa.

302
00:16:04.522 --> 00:16:05.443
It's not like the U.S.

303
00:16:05.523 --> 00:16:07.765
where we've got a there's so many banks.

304
00:16:08.606 --> 00:16:11.628
The banks will literally just get
together, and this is me speculating.

305
00:16:11.648 --> 00:16:13.630
They will just get together and say, what
are you going to say?

306
00:16:14.126 --> 00:16:15.627
I'm going to do three and a half.

307
00:16:15.628 --> 00:16:19.669
Yeah, let's do three and a half." And then
they realized, well, let's just fix it.

308
00:16:20.009 --> 00:16:22.971
Let's just fix it at three and a half
percent because that's it.

309
00:16:23.271 --> 00:16:29.434
And all the government is saying is why
are we still set at three and a half

310
00:16:29.434 --> 00:16:29.755
percent?

311
00:16:29.795 --> 00:16:35.418
Back in 2001, interest rates were trading
close to double at the current levels.

312
00:16:35.758 --> 00:16:42.321
You know, inflation rate at 2001 was
struggling to get to the six percent

313
00:16:42.321 --> 00:16:42.381
levels.

314
00:16:42.641 --> 00:16:45.163
Now we've, we've, we're, fix the
inflation.

315
00:16:45.183 --> 00:16:48.264
So, well, we're going to aim to keep
inflation at the 3% level.

316
00:16:48.844 --> 00:16:54.887
Now, you know, 3.5%,

317
00:16:54.888 --> 00:16:56.687
and I just did a quick calculation.

318
00:16:57.388 --> 00:17:02.590
If you look at last year, when the repo
rate, that's called beginning of last

319
00:17:02.590 --> 00:17:02.930
year,

320
00:17:02.930 --> 00:17:06.031
the repo rate was 8.25%.

321
00:17:06.032 --> 00:17:12.934
If you add that 3.5%, the banks just call
it profit margin, and I'm putting it

322
00:17:12.934 --> 00:17:14.934
inverted commas, were 42%.

323
00:17:14.934 --> 00:17:18.745
Now the interest rates dropped down to
refer rate 6.75%.

324
00:17:18.746 --> 00:17:20.986
So the cut, that 3.5% is now 52%.

325
00:17:20.987 --> 00:17:22.547
The margins have compressed, haven't they?

326
00:17:22.548 --> 00:17:23.488
Is that what you're saying here?

327
00:17:24.228 --> 00:17:24.928
Yes.

328
00:17:24.928 --> 00:17:25.368
Yeah, exactly.

329
00:17:25.389 --> 00:17:26.089
Other way around.

330
00:17:26.089 --> 00:17:26.809
No, it's increased.

331
00:17:27.190 --> 00:17:28.170
Margin's increased.

332
00:17:29.091 --> 00:17:34.374
And I agree to a certain extent that we
should re-evaluate this because if we're

333
00:17:34.374 --> 00:17:34.693
going to

334
00:17:34.693 --> 00:17:38.356
have a lower inflationary environment,
because this is what we aim.

335
00:17:38.396 --> 00:17:40.757
This is the utopia for the SOP.

336
00:17:41.177 --> 00:17:42.318
If we're going to have...

337
00:17:43.259 --> 00:17:49.743
And let's say they manage to keep
inflation around about the 3% level for

338
00:17:49.743 --> 00:17:51.743
the next 10 years.

339
00:17:51.743 --> 00:17:56.849
Then one should say that interest rates
will remain very, very low for the next 10

340
00:17:56.849 --> 00:17:57.028
years.

341
00:17:57.869 --> 00:18:03.974
Why should if interest rates are going to
be this low, why should that 3.5% still be

342
00:18:03.974 --> 00:18:04.015
that large?

343
00:18:04.554 --> 00:18:05.254
Okay.

344
00:18:05.254 --> 00:18:08.297
So they're taking action with this.

345
00:18:09.639 --> 00:18:12.206
It's going to be one of those debates like
inflation targeting.

346
00:18:12.226 --> 00:18:13.430
I can feel it coming.

347
00:18:14.573 --> 00:18:15.937
It's going to be one of those stories.

348
00:18:18.072 --> 00:18:24.598
crack on here and I've got to give you
some prices because the first five o'clock

349
00:18:24.598 --> 00:18:26.598
shadow with you shows of

350
00:18:26.598 --> 00:18:31.605
2026 shows the dollar round at 1639 the
British pound against the round is 2204

351
00:18:31.605 --> 00:18:33.605
and the euro around

352
00:18:33.605 --> 00:18:38.171
1909 euro dollar 116.50 British pound
against the US dollar

353
00:18:38.551 --> 00:18:43.396
is 134.50 now let's have a look at the all
important commodities starting with gold

354
00:18:43.720 --> 00:18:45.862
Up $29 according to my screen.

355
00:18:45.863 --> 00:18:52.087
I don't know where they measure it from,
up from when, but anyway, it's $4,616 per

356
00:18:52.087 --> 00:18:54.087
ounce.

357
00:18:54.087 --> 00:18:57.812
The Platinum price: $2,387 which is up a
couple of percent or $48 an ounce.

358
00:18:57.832 --> 00:19:01.995
Palladium though spoiling the party
somewhat with a $20 fall or 1%

359
00:19:01.996 --> 00:19:05.418
to $1895 an ounce.

360
00:19:05.518 --> 00:19:12.144
Now looking at my CRB index page, it's not
dominated by crude oil, but crude's having

361
00:19:12.144 --> 00:19:14.144
a bit of a go.

362
00:19:14.144 --> 00:19:15.225
It's broken out of its sort of 60 to 65
range.

363
00:19:15.265 --> 00:19:19.468
Brent crude, that is $66.19 at 1.1%.

364
00:19:19.688 --> 00:19:26.311
And then we've got West Texas, $61.72,
which is up just under 1%. The copper

365
00:19:26.311 --> 00:19:26.452
price,

366
00:19:26.452 --> 00:19:29.053
$6 at 6.0473.

367
00:19:29.054 --> 00:19:33.896
That's $6.048 per pound.

368
00:19:33.916 --> 00:19:36.217
It's much easier looking at the London
Metal Exchange.

369
00:19:36.317 --> 00:19:37.798
Maybe I'll start doing that next week.

370
00:19:38.178 --> 00:19:41.680
But anyway, copper price up around about
half a percent.

371
00:19:42.204 --> 00:19:49.148
uh bitcoin has broken out as well people
are loving this one suddenly nearly 97 000

372
00:19:49.148 --> 00:19:51.148
up nearly four percent on the day the

373
00:19:51.148 --> 00:19:56.093
s p 500 now the bank season in the united
states banks earning season uh not

374
00:19:56.093 --> 00:19:58.093
particularly good

375
00:19:58.093 --> 00:20:02.617
so the s p today is down by 0.6 percent
the futures the march futures six thousand

376
00:20:03.277 --> 00:20:08.300
nine hundred and sixty one the us 10-year
treasury bond went to 4.21 this is

377
00:20:08.500 --> 00:20:15.445
tips for the year actually personal tips
is you know sell the bonds by the yield uh

378
00:20:15.445 --> 00:20:17.445
4.14 percent though people have

379
00:20:17.445 --> 00:20:21.709
been buying the bonds uh last 48 hours or
so but i'm sticking with it and skulk will

380
00:20:21.709 --> 00:20:23.709
remember when it was

381
00:20:23.709 --> 00:20:26.692
399 four percent that i called that one so
i'm still in the green on this one at the

382
00:20:26.692 --> 00:20:26.693
south african 10-year

383
00:20:26.693 --> 00:20:33.117
8.295 percent and i think that's it
actually skulk what were the movers on the

384
00:20:33.117 --> 00:20:35.117
jsc up and down

385
00:20:35.117 --> 00:20:37.560
individual stocks wise today please tell
yeah so again

386
00:20:37.920 --> 00:20:41.983
Pretty much dominated by the commodities.

387
00:20:42.584 --> 00:20:47.548
We had a large movement in Tiger Brands,
11.5%.

388
00:20:47.668 --> 00:20:48.368
Do not?

389
00:20:48.669 --> 00:20:49.369
No, no, no.

390
00:20:50.831 --> 00:20:57.757
This is basically, if you take the special
dividend, then it was pretty much

391
00:20:57.757 --> 00:20:59.757
unchanged for today.

392
00:20:59.757 --> 00:21:04.802
So then for the downside, you had Pepco
that was done 5.1%,

393
00:21:04.803 --> 00:21:06.324
Bytes 4.25%.

394
00:21:07.276 --> 00:21:11.699
Astral down 3.54 and then Harmony 3.37.

395
00:21:12.780 --> 00:21:16.442
Some of the golds definitely took a bit of
a breather here.

396
00:21:16.743 --> 00:21:22.186
When you look at it on the upside, you
just mentioned the oil making a bit of a

397
00:21:22.186 --> 00:21:22.507
turn.

398
00:21:23.947 --> 00:21:27.270
Here comes your sassle.

399
00:21:27.930 --> 00:21:28.630
Here we go.

400
00:21:28.691 --> 00:21:29.391
Look at it.

401
00:21:29.391 --> 00:21:29.692
Sassle.

402
00:21:29.692 --> 00:21:32.413
I mean, I thought I gave it the kiss of
death end of last year by buying in it.

403
00:21:32.433 --> 00:21:36.756
But today, close just south, 122 rent up
5.63%.

404
00:21:36.816 --> 00:21:43.599
percent cash built up 4.15 percent
glencore 3.71 we know there's a there's a

405
00:21:43.599 --> 00:21:45.599
there's a whole thing

406
00:21:45.599 --> 00:21:50.462
between glencore and rio so there's some
some corporate actions going there and as

407
00:21:50.462 --> 00:21:52.462
a bush one that's uh been been fairly

408
00:21:52.462 --> 00:21:57.245
lackluster the past uh it's got a few
months 3.13 percent up for today and then

409
00:21:57.245 --> 00:21:59.245
here comes the the

410
00:21:59.245 --> 00:22:04.027
the pgms impala three two point seven
percent and northern platinum 2.5

411
00:22:04.028 --> 00:22:10.797
percent When you look at the JSE, as I
mentioned, JSE pretty much unchanged for

412
00:22:10.797 --> 00:22:11.018
today.

413
00:22:11.018 --> 00:22:15.899
Down nine basis points, closed the day at
120,857 points.

414
00:22:16.459 --> 00:22:23.201
Resources again having a great day, up
close to 1%, closed at 140,084 points.

415
00:22:23.861 --> 00:22:29.662
Then from there on all red industrials,
they were down 0.66%.

416
00:22:29.702 --> 00:22:35.244
Financials down 0.36% and the asset
property index that was down 1.3%.

417
00:22:35.308 --> 00:22:36.248
Three, six percent.

418
00:22:36.429 --> 00:22:37.129
Beautifully done.

419
00:22:37.129 --> 00:22:37.989
Thank you very much, Scout.

420
00:22:38.149 --> 00:22:39.230
And it's great to have you back.

421
00:22:39.690 --> 00:22:43.512
I would like to talk about a game show
that I've just thought of in my head,

422
00:22:43.592 --> 00:22:48.494
and it'll be all to do with the financial
markets and the participants in those

423
00:22:48.494 --> 00:22:50.494
markets.

424
00:22:50.494 --> 00:22:53.816
And the question would be, for example, it
comes up on the screen, which particular

425
00:22:53.816 --> 00:22:55.816
successful,

426
00:22:55.816 --> 00:23:00.939
well-known fund manager has a favorite
pastime, hobby or subject?

427
00:23:01.620 --> 00:23:02.580
His name is Mark.

428
00:23:02.740 --> 00:23:04.682
Skullclo, what is the subject?

429
00:23:04.802 --> 00:23:08.425
And it gives you the first two letters of
the word.

430
00:23:08.985 --> 00:23:11.067
Skullclo from PSG Wealth Old Oak.

431
00:23:12.508 --> 00:23:18.272
The subject and the hobby is G-O. And
you've got to put the next two letters in.

432
00:23:18.713 --> 00:23:22.376
And most people will of course say, Ah,
it's easy L-D, gold.

433
00:23:22.856 --> 00:23:24.137
No, apparently not.

434
00:23:25.158 --> 00:23:27.179
Soon to be L-F, golf.

435
00:23:29.901 --> 00:23:31.181
Well done, Lindsay.

436
00:23:31.521 --> 00:23:33.942
I mean, that was a strong cup of tea, man.

437
00:23:34.062 --> 00:23:36.323
That is sharp as a menorah blade.

438
00:23:36.704 --> 00:23:37.404
Yes.

439
00:23:38.204 --> 00:23:39.485
I acquired myself.

440
00:23:39.545 --> 00:23:41.405
I don't want to call myself a golfer yet.

441
00:23:41.826 --> 00:23:44.007
I just acquired myself a golf set.

442
00:23:44.047 --> 00:23:47.428
So 2026, here we go, baby.

443
00:23:48.688 --> 00:23:49.388
God help us.

444
00:23:51.590 --> 00:23:52.810
That was the five o'clock shadow.

445
00:23:53.390 --> 00:24:00.314
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams, an

446
00:24:00.314 --> 00:24:02.314
and various contributors, and do not
reflect the policy,

447
00:24:02.314 --> 00:24:04.078
position or opinion of any other agency,
organization,

448
00:24:04.398 --> 00:24:09.042
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

449
00:24:09.502 --> 00:24:16.468
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

450
00:24:16.468 --> 00:24:18.468
entity other than the speaker or the
author,

451
00:24:18.468 --> 00:24:21.952
and since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

452
00:24:21.952 --> 00:24:22.072
change,

453
00:24:22.233 --> 00:24:24.795
revision and rethinking at any time.

454
00:24:25.115 --> 00:24:26.276
Please do not hold us to them.

455
00:24:26.710 --> 00:24:27.506
in perpetuity.
