WEBVTT

1
00:00:00.388 --> 00:00:04.551
You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

2
00:00:05.212 --> 00:00:08.895
The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

3
00:00:08.895 --> 00:00:08.916
shadow.

4
00:00:09.036 --> 00:00:15.622
And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG

5
00:00:15.622 --> 00:00:17.622
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

6
00:00:17.622 --> 00:00:18.965
Start where we would normally end, Skulk.

7
00:00:19.012 --> 00:00:20.387
What's the all-share index, please?

8
00:00:20.403 --> 00:00:21.262
Where did it close?

9
00:00:22.528 --> 00:00:24.247
Oh, JSC, what a day for them.

10
00:00:24.325 --> 00:00:25.575
But we'll get to that.

11
00:00:25.576 --> 00:00:26.340
You actually asked me.

12
00:00:26.669 --> 00:00:28.372
JSC today closed at 1.5.

13
00:00:28.804 --> 00:00:30.044
5% positive.

14
00:00:30.445 --> 00:00:33.447
I mean, it was a great bounce back.

15
00:00:33.505 --> 00:00:38.728
I mean, we opened up slightly positive
this morning, and we sort of hoovered,

16
00:00:39.064 --> 00:00:42.329
hoovered up to that medium-term budget
speech.

17
00:00:42.345 --> 00:00:45.087
Hoovered, yeah.

18
00:00:45.243 --> 00:00:46.134
Was it negative?

19
00:00:46.212 --> 00:00:52.509
I mean, with the government reopening,
that's optimism,

20
00:00:53.837 --> 00:00:56.743
that sort of made markets in general

21
00:00:57.740 --> 00:01:04.586
fairly positive this morning um but i mean
as i mentioned to you a little bit earlier

22
00:01:04.586 --> 00:01:06.586
i mean we i was in a

23
00:01:06.586 --> 00:01:12.051
another interview it's called lunchtime
ish and i had an idea what the what what

24
00:01:12.051 --> 00:01:14.051
the markets did up

25
00:01:14.051 --> 00:01:17.863
to that stage you know which companies
performed we still had a nice nice chat

26
00:01:17.863 --> 00:01:19.863
about retailers

27
00:01:19.863 --> 00:01:24.722
specifically on the back yeah but but it
was a general chat uh i mean i'll do some

28
00:01:24.722 --> 00:01:24.766
name dropping

29
00:01:24.769 --> 00:01:29.183
with mr mr shapiro And he says, I mean,

30
00:01:30.906 --> 00:01:35.890
I think it's not for the widows and
orphans, and he's not a trader, blah,

31
00:01:35.890 --> 00:01:37.890
blah, blah, all those disclaimers.

32
00:01:37.890 --> 00:01:40.632
And then he said, well, but he thinks we
should be buying the Foshini Group.

33
00:01:41.335 --> 00:01:43.562
And he made a valid point.

34
00:01:43.593 --> 00:01:46.499
That's strange for him because he can't
stand retailers.

35
00:01:47.437 --> 00:01:51.218
Well, he pretty much can't stand the South
African economy.

36
00:01:51.703 --> 00:01:56.021
But he actually mentioned he actually is
becoming… more bullish.

37
00:01:56.101 --> 00:01:56.801
Very good.

38
00:01:56.801 --> 00:02:02.588
And when you look at, you know, something
like the Fushini Group, we quickly had a

39
00:02:02.588 --> 00:02:04.588
look while we were chatting,

40
00:02:04.588 --> 00:02:05.229
and we actually realized it's actually
true.

41
00:02:05.448 --> 00:02:12.284
The Fushini Group yesterday closed at
levels that we've last seen in the midst,

42
00:02:12.284 --> 00:02:14.284
in the,

43
00:02:14.284 --> 00:02:19.049
let's call it that worst-case scenario
environment of COVID-19 then to

44
00:02:20.159 --> 00:02:21.549
2020. So we're not just at...

45
00:02:22.157 --> 00:02:22.857
12-month lows.

46
00:02:22.857 --> 00:02:24.499
It's a five-year low is what you're
saying.

47
00:02:25.220 --> 00:02:26.360
It's literally a five-year low.

48
00:02:26.981 --> 00:02:29.302
So that's the backdrop.

49
00:02:29.567 --> 00:02:34.911
And when I now looked at markets as it
closed, I mean, wow, man.

50
00:02:35.630 --> 00:02:38.270
And I still have the conversation on
ShopRite.

51
00:02:38.645 --> 00:02:44.192
ShopRite at that stage didn't know if
we're going to be positive today or

52
00:02:44.192 --> 00:02:44.361
negative.

53
00:02:44.361 --> 00:02:47.849
So it was really fighting to stay
positive.

54
00:02:48.224 --> 00:02:49.224
Closed today at 2%.

55
00:02:49.317 --> 00:02:50.849
You're up.

56
00:02:51.044 --> 00:02:52.266
Peter, your Mr.

57
00:02:52.305 --> 00:02:54.588
Price is 1.62% up.

58
00:02:55.188 --> 00:03:01.895
In general, it was a really, really solid
turnaround for, let's call it the typical

59
00:03:01.895 --> 00:03:03.895
SA inks.

60
00:03:03.895 --> 00:03:05.762
And banks, oh, banks, they absolutely
loved it as well.

61
00:03:06.262 --> 00:03:07.816
Okay, we'll come to that in a second.

62
00:03:07.817 --> 00:03:12.145
So this is a good SA story, and that's
aside from commodities, of course.

63
00:03:12.160 --> 00:03:17.754
And there was good commodities news in the
MTBPS medium-term budget policy statement,

64
00:03:17.785 --> 00:03:19.645
which we'll touch on as well.

65
00:03:19.860 --> 00:03:23.783
But I want to talk to you about Woolies.
And I want you to look back to August,

66
00:03:23.883 --> 00:03:30.653
what the price of Woolies was back in sort
of August, early September time, when it

67
00:03:30.653 --> 00:03:32.653
was about to be,

68
00:03:32.653 --> 00:03:35.238
or was announced it would be leaving the
MSCI index.

69
00:03:35.434 --> 00:03:37.199
Have you got that to hand, please, Scott?

70
00:03:37.200 --> 00:03:37.996
Yes, yes.

71
00:03:38.356 --> 00:03:44.496
Okay, if you take August, but if you look
at, I don't know where you want to get to,

72
00:03:44.559 --> 00:03:48.887
because that's the same time you had that
interview with Vicky, John Bacard.

73
00:03:49.436 --> 00:03:53.558
And on that stage, let's call it that late
July,

74
00:03:54.437 --> 00:04:00.937
it actually closed at what's wrong about
that, let's call it 48, 49 Rand levels.

75
00:04:02.117 --> 00:04:06.882
So it's rallied about, let's call it 9 to
10 Rand per share,

76
00:04:07.179 --> 00:04:13.320
which is around between 15 and 20% since
the removal from the MSCI,

77
00:04:13.367 --> 00:04:16.476
which is something that that person that
you mentioned touched upon.

78
00:04:16.788 --> 00:04:18.617
But one other thing, the reason that I...

79
00:04:18.704 --> 00:04:25.312
called him was because that he believed
that the the people were being too

80
00:04:25.312 --> 00:04:25.371
negative

81
00:04:25.371 --> 00:04:32.194
towards uh south africa much too negative
uh especially uh regarding an article i

82
00:04:32.194 --> 00:04:34.194
think in the

83
00:04:34.194 --> 00:04:38.999
wall street journal it may have been in
the washington post i don't know but he

84
00:04:38.999 --> 00:04:40.999
was was bullish and given what we've seen
in

85
00:04:40.999 --> 00:04:46.671
the the mini budget so-called pretty good
i i think that everyone was in a pretty

86
00:04:46.671 --> 00:04:48.671
good mood and in fact the minister did

87
00:04:48.671 --> 00:04:51.447
say You know, it's very gratifying to see
that his opposite number in the

88
00:04:51.447 --> 00:04:53.447
opposition,

89
00:04:53.447 --> 00:04:55.998
the shadow finance minister, didn't walk
out during the speech.

90
00:04:56.318 --> 00:04:59.959
So everyone was sort of touchy-feely,
very, very happy with each other.

91
00:05:00.707 --> 00:05:03.510
And bullish for SA, Skolt, can it last?

92
00:05:03.770 --> 00:05:07.955
Or will it be another government of
national unity fizzle-out rally?

93
00:05:09.174 --> 00:05:09.979
I don't think so.

94
00:05:10.135 --> 00:05:15.143
I mean, anything can always happen with
this GNU, this government of national

95
00:05:15.143 --> 00:05:17.143
unity.

96
00:05:17.143 --> 00:05:20.346
But I always say expect the unexpected.

97
00:05:21.705 --> 00:05:26.033
But I watch the budget speech.

98
00:05:27.751 --> 00:05:32.217
I felt an optimism that I didn't feel for
many years.

99
00:05:32.456 --> 00:05:34.698
And it wasn't an overly optimism.

100
00:05:34.819 --> 00:05:37.999
It wasn't something like, oh, wow, we've
got so much money.

101
00:05:38.124 --> 00:05:40.100
It's just going to be beautiful.

102
00:05:40.624 --> 00:05:42.022
We're going to take over the world.

103
00:05:42.124 --> 00:05:45.827
Not that type of speech.

104
00:05:46.342 --> 00:05:47.092
You know what it is?

105
00:05:47.124 --> 00:05:50.108
I think what you're trying to say is it
wasn't horrible.

106
00:05:50.780 --> 00:05:51.480
No.

107
00:05:51.655 --> 00:05:52.355
No.

108
00:05:52.355 --> 00:05:53.639
And it was clear targets.

109
00:05:53.842 --> 00:05:56.202
We're talking about the debt.

110
00:05:56.479 --> 00:05:58.641
that still should pick this year.

111
00:05:58.942 --> 00:06:00.903
And they were fairly firm on that.

112
00:06:01.145 --> 00:06:04.329
And we should start seeing that the debt
levels decrease next year.

113
00:06:04.844 --> 00:06:07.571
It was no, we should and could and might.

114
00:06:08.969 --> 00:06:09.672
It was firm.

115
00:06:10.376 --> 00:06:15.962
We were seeing debt peaking at this fiscal
year, decreasing the next fiscal year.

116
00:06:16.024 --> 00:06:18.024
They were talking about the GDP levels.

117
00:06:18.055 --> 00:06:20.899
GDP levels, that's, again,

118
00:06:21.055 --> 00:06:25.962
upgraded our growth for this year and
telling us that we should see it in.

119
00:06:26.555 --> 00:06:31.715
I think the big one was probably the
expected one was the inflation numbers.

120
00:06:31.976 --> 00:06:36.676
But, I mean, we're not going to get into
the medium budget speech.

121
00:06:37.160 --> 00:06:41.598
I know you've got a great interview lined
up with 91,

122
00:06:41.599 --> 00:06:44.301
and they'll sort of look at all the
numbers.

123
00:06:44.723 --> 00:06:46.394
They were pretty happy.

124
00:06:46.395 --> 00:06:51.894
I don't want to talk behind their back or
get into trouble from governance or

125
00:06:51.894 --> 00:06:53.894
anything like that.

126
00:06:53.894 --> 00:06:55.582
but the two people that I interviewed were
generally...

127
00:06:56.063 --> 00:07:01.290
sounding a little bit like you without
saying it in such a forceful way that you

128
00:07:01.290 --> 00:07:01.307
always do.

129
00:07:01.989 --> 00:07:03.431
And that's why we love you, Skunk.

130
00:07:04.032 --> 00:07:07.673
You wear your heart on your sleeve,
especially when it comes to South Africa,

131
00:07:07.673 --> 00:07:09.673
which is great.

132
00:07:09.673 --> 00:07:11.673
Okay.

133
00:07:11.673 --> 00:07:13.673
Yeah.

134
00:07:13.673 --> 00:07:15.673
Anyway, a good MTBV.

135
00:07:15.673 --> 00:07:17.673
So you were asking about Willis.

136
00:07:17.673 --> 00:07:19.298
I think Willis, let's just run through
what, because there might be a few of your

137
00:07:19.298 --> 00:07:21.298
listeners out there that didn't see the

138
00:07:21.298 --> 00:07:23.298
trading update.

139
00:07:23.298 --> 00:07:23.736
So turnover up 6.2%.

140
00:07:23.798 --> 00:07:24.498
It was.

141
00:07:24.787 --> 00:07:26.787
If you look through the numbers itself,

142
00:07:27.367 --> 00:07:34.328
I would say it's not something that stood
out again as something being mind-blowing.

143
00:07:34.906 --> 00:07:38.289
Wow, it was like 15 or 20 or whatever.

144
00:07:39.007 --> 00:07:40.875
It was just solid, solid numbers.

145
00:07:41.296 --> 00:07:45.593
Even from country roads, I mean, you and
I, we've been vocal.

146
00:07:46.015 --> 00:07:47.750
We've been, you know,

147
00:07:48.234 --> 00:07:53.640
vocal on just get rid of the rubbish and
just split the two companies.

148
00:07:53.943 --> 00:08:00.591
the food and then the fashion beauty and
just it's just but this time around i

149
00:08:00.591 --> 00:08:02.591
looked through all the

150
00:08:02.591 --> 00:08:07.614
numbers looked stable i mean country roads
up 3.3 percent suddenly things are a

151
00:08:07.614 --> 00:08:07.634
little bit more

152
00:08:07.755 --> 00:08:09.395
stable and as

153
00:08:09.598 --> 00:08:16.450
this gentleman we talked about earlier and
and i think he mentioned something back in

154
00:08:16.450 --> 00:08:18.450
the interview that he

155
00:08:18.450 --> 00:08:22.415
values the the the the food business
within willies I'd run about,

156
00:08:22.455 --> 00:08:25.156
I think he said 53 or something like that.

157
00:08:25.236 --> 00:08:26.154
Yes.

158
00:08:26.155 --> 00:08:30.853
And at that stage, as you mentioned,
Woolies was trading at 50 Rand.

159
00:08:31.174 --> 00:08:36.197
So he said, well, you're pretty much
getting the rest of Woolies for free.

160
00:08:36.478 --> 00:08:37.799
We did some calcs as well.

161
00:08:37.877 --> 00:08:40.205
We're actually a little bit more
optimistic on that.

162
00:08:40.580 --> 00:08:45.283
We valued the food business around 56 Rand
per share.

163
00:08:46.236 --> 00:08:51.424
And so it's actually a great… great
opportunity.

164
00:08:51.544 --> 00:08:57.870
And I think just add to that, they add a
share buyback of 6.9 million.

165
00:08:57.889 --> 00:09:00.475
So that's about 300 something million
rands.

166
00:09:00.913 --> 00:09:04.936
It's got 350 million rands worth of share
buybacks.

167
00:09:05.436 --> 00:09:09.983
Now, a company usually, you know, I've
often said this on this podcast,

168
00:09:10.530 --> 00:09:16.592
a company that buys back their own shares,
that's a very positive sign.

169
00:09:16.895 --> 00:09:18.456
Well, it's either positive.

170
00:09:18.835 --> 00:09:19.535
It's positive.

171
00:09:19.535 --> 00:09:21.616
Of course, it's positive because it
reduces the pool.

172
00:09:21.674 --> 00:09:28.299
But the other thing is they haven't got
anything else to do with the money at the

173
00:09:28.299 --> 00:09:30.299
moment, which sometimes if they keep on
buying back,

174
00:09:30.299 --> 00:09:33.393
people say, wait a second, you've got to
deploy this cash, this liquidity

175
00:09:33.393 --> 00:09:35.393
elsewhere.

176
00:09:35.393 --> 00:09:37.393
Do something.

177
00:09:37.393 --> 00:09:39.393
I know what I'd do with Woolies.

178
00:09:39.393 --> 00:09:40.143
I would take all the different clothing
brands and everything and scrap them.

179
00:09:40.159 --> 00:09:40.859
And I'd have two.

180
00:09:41.206 --> 00:09:42.643
I'd have Woolies, classic.

181
00:09:43.467 --> 00:09:45.970
Which is the reasonably priced stuff.

182
00:09:46.009 --> 00:09:51.899
And I'd have Woolies Select, which is
something that the scalp loads of this

183
00:09:51.899 --> 00:09:53.899
world would go for.

184
00:09:53.899 --> 00:09:55.899
You see what I mean?

185
00:09:55.899 --> 00:09:57.899
Yeah.

186
00:09:57.899 --> 00:09:58.001
No, it's a good idea.

187
00:09:59.118 --> 00:10:04.243
But be that as it may, it was a wonderful
reaction of Mr.

188
00:10:04.290 --> 00:10:04.990
Marker today.

189
00:10:05.274 --> 00:10:07.696
I mean, the share price reacted 9%
positive.

190
00:10:07.884 --> 00:10:10.368
And yeah, long may it last for the
shareholders.

191
00:10:10.369 --> 00:10:11.509
I mean, this has been a company.

192
00:10:11.919 --> 00:10:13.984
That's been under a bit of pressure.

193
00:10:14.605 --> 00:10:16.750
And it seems like there's a bit of a
pickup.

194
00:10:16.910 --> 00:10:23.789
But again, when I go through the numbers,
it didn't look as if…

195
00:10:24.333 --> 00:10:28.237
The company is struggling, and I think one
can extrapolate that again and say, well,

196
00:10:29.337 --> 00:10:31.981
then South Africa might just be picking up
a little bit.

197
00:10:32.282 --> 00:10:36.606
And this is, again, a clothing, food
retailer.

198
00:10:36.747 --> 00:10:42.395
And if they're picking up, then maybe the
rest of the business are picking up as

199
00:10:42.395 --> 00:10:42.845
well.

200
00:10:42.845 --> 00:10:43.552
This has been a bit of a rum.

201
00:10:44.099 --> 00:10:44.927
Yeah, let's hope so.

202
00:10:45.458 --> 00:10:46.158
Fingers crossed.

203
00:10:46.158 --> 00:10:47.677
Let's move away from South Africa now.

204
00:10:47.755 --> 00:10:50.114
We are unreservedly, cautiously bullish.

205
00:10:50.364 --> 00:10:51.064
There you go.

206
00:10:51.064 --> 00:10:53.380
Unreservedly, cautiously bullish.

207
00:10:53.709 --> 00:10:57.512
on South Africa, particularly when you see
some of the valuations,

208
00:10:57.553 --> 00:11:03.882
which if you've got a good company that's
going through hard times at the moment,

209
00:11:03.882 --> 00:11:05.882
and you look back to its COVID numbers,
like TFG,

210
00:11:05.882 --> 00:11:06.483
for example, then have a serious look at
it.

211
00:11:06.499 --> 00:11:08.764
Don't plunge in, but have a serious look
at it.

212
00:11:08.905 --> 00:11:11.007
Now, let's talk about commodities.

213
00:11:12.085 --> 00:11:15.616
The gold price went to, what did it go to?

214
00:11:15.710 --> 00:11:17.038
3,000.

215
00:11:17.039 --> 00:11:18.116
What am I talking about now?

216
00:11:18.491 --> 00:11:19.335
Where is it now, Scott?

217
00:11:19.336 --> 00:11:21.460
4,100.

218
00:11:21.475 --> 00:11:22.175
It went to

219
00:11:22.689 --> 00:11:29.615
4 400 wasn't that the high very very
recently it's

220
00:11:29.616 --> 00:11:36.025
it i'll i'll bring it up this week 4 398
it went down to very close to 3

221
00:11:36.080 --> 00:11:42.533
900 so let's call it 4 400 to 3 900
rounding it up and down a

222
00:11:42.627 --> 00:11:49.470
500 dollar fall it's back now just below 4
200 a natural bounce back in what has

223
00:11:49.533 --> 00:11:51.173
been a long-term and bull market.

224
00:11:51.761 --> 00:11:55.845
Do you believe it?

225
00:11:56.106 --> 00:11:56.806
Yes.

226
00:11:56.806 --> 00:12:02.934
And some might argue that it's easy now to
say, but you've asked me this question, I

227
00:12:02.934 --> 00:12:04.934
think, two or three weeks ago, and I told
you, well,

228
00:12:04.934 --> 00:12:04.958
I only see this as a bit of profit-taking.

229
00:12:05.677 --> 00:12:12.161
I still very much believe that the
business thesis or the investment thesis

230
00:12:12.161 --> 00:12:14.161
for being invested in gold is still very
much

231
00:12:14.161 --> 00:12:16.161
intact.

232
00:12:16.161 --> 00:12:18.052
And I mentioned it, I didn't go and buy
the weakness.

233
00:12:18.789 --> 00:12:19.851
I did not sell.

234
00:12:19.991 --> 00:12:21.833
So I'm really happy with these levels.

235
00:12:22.154 --> 00:12:28.396
We've seen two of our gold mines bring out
updates yesterday and today.

236
00:12:28.740 --> 00:12:29.638
Anglo Gold, was it?

237
00:12:29.662 --> 00:12:30.362
Was Anglo Gold one?

238
00:12:30.362 --> 00:12:30.925
Yeah.

239
00:12:30.925 --> 00:12:31.380
Go on.

240
00:12:31.646 --> 00:12:32.346
Nice move.

241
00:12:32.943 --> 00:12:33.646
And Goldfields.

242
00:12:33.826 --> 00:12:34.526
Yeah.

243
00:12:34.526 --> 00:12:34.683
And Goldfields.

244
00:12:34.849 --> 00:12:41.458
What was interesting, so firstly, we've
seen Anglo Gold yesterday coming out with

245
00:12:41.458 --> 00:12:43.458
a production report,

246
00:12:43.458 --> 00:12:43.693
and that production report looked
phenomenal.

247
00:12:43.833 --> 00:12:46.162
I mean, and not just in a sense of...

248
00:12:46.973 --> 00:12:49.294
The fact that we're going to get to the
free cash flow side.

249
00:12:49.753 --> 00:12:53.253
But I mean, this is typically what you
want to see a gold mine do.

250
00:12:53.694 --> 00:12:59.976
They mined 682,000 ounces exactly a year
ago in that quarter.

251
00:13:00.515 --> 00:13:06.101
And this, let's call it Q3 2025, they
mined

252
00:13:06.272 --> 00:13:11.241
768,000 ounces of gold.

253
00:13:11.242 --> 00:13:12.116
That's a big move.

254
00:13:12.117 --> 00:13:12.817
17% up.

255
00:13:12.897 --> 00:13:13.897
17% up.

256
00:13:13.960 --> 00:13:15.770
That's just… Literally,

257
00:13:15.771 --> 00:13:21.215
that's just extra gold being mined in this
quarter.

258
00:13:21.915 --> 00:13:26.602
That's exactly what you want to see a gold
mine do when the gold price goes from

259
00:13:27.141 --> 00:13:30.305
$3,000 to $4,000.

260
00:13:30.547 --> 00:13:31.790
That's exactly what you want to see.

261
00:13:32.258 --> 00:13:36.196
And you and I have had this conversation
as well.

262
00:13:36.743 --> 00:13:39.118
These gold mines are printing money.

263
00:13:39.149 --> 00:13:43.962
I mean, the amount of free cash flow that
they've got is just phenomenal.

264
00:13:44.974 --> 00:13:47.095
So we've often said somewhere along the
line,

265
00:13:47.696 --> 00:13:54.200
either we're going to see a string of
acquisition announcements

266
00:13:54.583 --> 00:13:59.989
because effectively when you've got this
amount of cash, similar to what you just

267
00:13:59.989 --> 00:14:01.989
said on the Woolies scenario,

268
00:14:01.989 --> 00:14:06.317
you either need to go and do transactions
or you need to give the money back.

269
00:14:06.552 --> 00:14:09.036
Give the money back to the shareholders in
forms of dividends.

270
00:14:09.474 --> 00:14:12.521
And they've made the announcement today
that they...

271
00:14:13.873 --> 00:14:15.114
they can change the dividend policy.

272
00:14:16.313 --> 00:14:22.579
It's more a quarterly structure now, but
more specifically, they're going to look

273
00:14:22.579 --> 00:14:24.579
at paying 50%

274
00:14:24.954 --> 00:14:25.875
of the free cash flow.

275
00:14:27.313 --> 00:14:32.813
Compared to yesterday, Goldfield is also
giving a positive update,

276
00:14:33.157 --> 00:14:37.500
but they mentioned they're going to pay
back 35% of the free cash flow.

277
00:14:37.532 --> 00:14:38.563
Tell me about the margins.

278
00:14:38.625 --> 00:14:40.032
This is what really gets me excited.

279
00:14:40.485 --> 00:14:41.422
Can you quickly give me...

280
00:14:41.721 --> 00:14:48.548
the margin they've gone from 683 000
ounces in the quarter uh the last year up

281
00:14:48.548 --> 00:14:50.548
to 700 and whatever you said yes

282
00:14:50.548 --> 00:14:55.619
tell me about the margins give it to me
easy what did it cost them to get it out

283
00:14:55.619 --> 00:14:57.619
the ground and i'll have a look at the
price today

284
00:14:57.619 --> 00:15:02.603
i love that okay let's let's let's use
let's use agro gold because that's that's

285
00:15:02.603 --> 00:15:04.603
the the biggie for today man uh the

286
00:15:04.603 --> 00:15:09.603
movement that we've seen in angler gold
let's give the end first you know five and

287
00:15:09.603 --> 00:15:11.603
a half percent up today you know while
gold

288
00:15:11.603 --> 00:15:13.603
fields were down.

289
00:15:13.603 --> 00:15:15.603
So that's an interesting point.

290
00:15:15.603 --> 00:15:17.603
And I think, no, it's not strange.

291
00:15:17.603 --> 00:15:20.226
It's when the market says, well, the one
company is going to give me 50% of the

292
00:15:20.226 --> 00:15:22.226
free cash flow.

293
00:15:22.226 --> 00:15:23.226
The other one is going to give me 35% of
the free cash flow.

294
00:15:23.227 --> 00:15:26.147
That's a good enough reason.

295
00:15:26.788 --> 00:15:29.851
No, it's economics 101.

296
00:15:29.852 --> 00:15:35.960
But also, I mean, they did produce way
more gold than gold fields over the same

297
00:15:35.960 --> 00:15:36.285
time.

298
00:15:36.285 --> 00:15:37.741
But yeah, I mean, you asked for it.

299
00:15:38.413 --> 00:15:39.897
So, so Angelo Gold mentioned.

300
00:15:40.361 --> 00:15:41.243
They've got two things.

301
00:15:41.263 --> 00:15:46.555
They've got the all-in sustainable cost
and the all-in cost and all-withstandable

302
00:15:46.555 --> 00:15:48.555
cost.

303
00:15:48.555 --> 00:15:49.340
All-in sustainable cost for this period.

304
00:15:49.504 --> 00:15:50.204
Yes.

305
00:15:50.895 --> 00:15:54.380
$1,720 per hour.

306
00:15:54.381 --> 00:16:00.883
$1,700 versus its current price of, let's
call it, $4,200.

307
00:16:00.884 --> 00:16:02.126
They're printing money, Skulk.

308
00:16:03.165 --> 00:16:07.798
They must get more out the ground, and
they must make hay while this golden sun

309
00:16:07.798 --> 00:16:09.798
shines.

310
00:16:09.798 --> 00:16:11.798
That's it.

311
00:16:11.798 --> 00:16:13.798
That's it.

312
00:16:13.798 --> 00:16:15.798
And they're doing it.

313
00:16:15.798 --> 00:16:17.798
I mean, we know they're doing it.

314
00:16:17.798 --> 00:16:19.798
That's what they said they're doing.

315
00:16:19.798 --> 00:16:19.923
They've produced 17% more gold compared to
one year ago.

316
00:16:20.419 --> 00:16:24.023
So, yeah, this is just a phenomenal story.

317
00:16:24.642 --> 00:16:28.509
And, you know, like I said, I think we're
going to read more and more.

318
00:16:28.548 --> 00:16:34.595
It's going to be a topic which we're going
to be discussing quite a bit in the next,

319
00:16:34.595 --> 00:16:36.595
let's call it, 6 to 12 months.

320
00:16:36.595 --> 00:16:36.868
Because I think we're going to see the
results.

321
00:16:37.759 --> 00:16:41.947
I still firmly believe the gold price is
going to remain stable at these levels.

322
00:16:42.275 --> 00:16:45.040
And then you're going to see some solid,
solid set of returns.

323
00:16:45.368 --> 00:16:52.178
Not just results, not just only from Anglo
Gold and Goldfields, but also, you know,

324
00:16:52.178 --> 00:16:54.178
the… The other, the Harmonies, the Durban
Ruedepo,

325
00:16:54.178 --> 00:16:55.340
the Pan African, even Sabania's still
water now.

326
00:16:55.680 --> 00:16:59.941
You know, 50% of the EBITDA now being made
up of gold.

327
00:17:00.183 --> 00:17:03.551
So, yeah, it's really, really good news.

328
00:17:03.847 --> 00:17:07.316
Good news on the RAND now, because the
dollar RAND is 17.09.

329
00:17:07.317 --> 00:17:10.051
That's a 0.4% fall for the US dollar.

330
00:17:10.676 --> 00:17:13.144
British pound against the RAND is 22.42.

331
00:17:13.145 --> 00:17:17.394
Euro RAND is 19.80 euro dollar.

332
00:17:17.615 --> 00:17:20.658
1.1585, more or less unchanged,

333
00:17:20.678 --> 00:17:26.045
but the dollar under pressure again after
a period of strength, a little bit under

334
00:17:26.045 --> 00:17:28.045
pressure anyway.

335
00:17:28.045 --> 00:17:29.568
British pound against the US dollar,
1.3120.

336
00:17:29.569 --> 00:17:36.178
Let's have a look at those commodities now
with the gold price at 41.82, up one and a

337
00:17:36.178 --> 00:17:38.178
third percent or $56 an ounce.

338
00:17:38.178 --> 00:17:43.318
The platinum price is up $40 an ounce or
two and a half percent to 16.39 and

339
00:17:43.318 --> 00:17:45.318
palladium 15.02,

340
00:17:45.318 --> 00:17:46.428
which is a near 2% gain.

341
00:17:47.135 --> 00:17:51.301
Not such good news on other commodities
that are important to South Africa.

342
00:17:51.302 --> 00:17:55.864
And this is a good news commodity day for
the Republic, because looking at crude

343
00:17:55.864 --> 00:17:56.079
oil,

344
00:17:56.301 --> 00:17:59.864
West Texas down 3.5% to 58.91.

345
00:17:59.865 --> 00:18:00.565
Yes, please.

346
00:18:00.770 --> 00:18:05.801
And Brent crude oil, $63.16, down 3.1%.

347
00:18:05.802 --> 00:18:10.004
The all-important copper price having a
really good day as well, up 1.3%

348
00:18:10.645 --> 00:18:13.457
to $5.12 per pound.

349
00:18:13.504 --> 00:18:16.442
That's on the COMEX in New York Commodity
Exchange.

350
00:18:16.755 --> 00:18:17.455
New York.

351
00:18:17.455 --> 00:18:22.499
I'll start putting the London Metal
Exchange price in as well, which is

352
00:18:22.499 --> 00:18:24.499
dollars per tonne, but not at the moment.

353
00:18:24.499 --> 00:18:25.647
Right, let's have a look at the South
African bond market after the MTBPS.

354
00:18:26.342 --> 00:18:27.264
Oh, goodness me.

355
00:18:28.225 --> 00:18:28.967
Look at this thing.

356
00:18:29.108 --> 00:18:30.405
8.66 for the

357
00:18:30.811 --> 00:18:36.577
10-year. 15 basis points better from 8.81
on the closed yesterday to 8.66.

358
00:18:36.655 --> 00:18:38.092
It's having a lovely day.

359
00:18:38.561 --> 00:18:44.358
And the long end of the curve is 20 basis
points better, you know, the 30-year, etc.

360
00:18:45.027 --> 00:18:46.869
The US bond market,

361
00:18:47.429 --> 00:18:53.558
we spoke two weeks ago and I said I
thought we should be buying the yield,

362
00:18:53.558 --> 00:18:55.558
selling the bond market at 4%.

363
00:18:55.558 --> 00:18:56.402
It went to about 4.16, 4.17.

364
00:18:56.418 --> 00:18:57.418
I was feeling good about it.

365
00:18:58.324 --> 00:18:59.024
Still in profit.

366
00:18:59.441 --> 00:19:01.746
4.06 and a half now, the US 10-year.

367
00:19:02.261 --> 00:19:03.871
S&P 500 futures.

368
00:19:04.433 --> 00:19:11.355
Someone said that the bubble might burst a
couple of weeks, about 10 days ago or

369
00:19:11.355 --> 00:19:13.355
something, and we had a bit of a wobble.

370
00:19:13.355 --> 00:19:15.355
Not so now.

371
00:19:15.355 --> 00:19:18.074
Steady on the S&P futures for December
6872.

372
00:19:18.075 --> 00:19:19.652
Can you believe what you're hearing there?

373
00:19:20.214 --> 00:19:21.972
And Bitcoin is the final one.

374
00:19:22.316 --> 00:19:23.456
Bitcoin was looking horrible.

375
00:19:24.097 --> 00:19:27.980
It actually broke 100,000 for a while,
went up to 107.

376
00:19:28.402 --> 00:19:29.925
Now, 102.610.

377
00:19:30.206 --> 00:19:33.847
It looks as though it's sell the rallies,
this one.

378
00:19:33.863 --> 00:19:34.563
Don't you think?

379
00:19:34.563 --> 00:19:36.972
I mean, we don't talk about crypto much,
Skulk.

380
00:19:37.269 --> 00:19:40.316
But watching the action of Bitcoin, it
doesn't look good to me.

381
00:19:41.511 --> 00:19:44.914
Now, I guess I'm not a Bitcoin follower,

382
00:19:44.975 --> 00:19:49.200
so I'm not even going to try and I just
remember it went to that let's go

383
00:19:50.180 --> 00:19:52.821
120,000, went below the 100,000.

384
00:19:52.844 --> 00:19:58.750
And it just you would have thought if the
gold price now moving back to that

385
00:19:58.766 --> 00:20:01.688
4,100, 4,000,

386
00:20:01.689 --> 00:20:07.360
you would have most probably seen the
let's call it the newer version of gold,

387
00:20:07.532 --> 00:20:10.204
which it's been called a lot of times.

388
00:20:10.297 --> 00:20:10.997
No.

389
00:20:10.997 --> 00:20:11.372
Yeah.

390
00:20:11.372 --> 00:20:13.433
Bitcoin moving in the same direction, but
it's not.

391
00:20:13.773 --> 00:20:18.398
It's struggling to keep its head above
that $100,000 per Bitcoin mark.

392
00:20:18.417 --> 00:20:19.980
So yeah, interesting movements there.

393
00:20:20.136 --> 00:20:20.836
It is, yeah.

394
00:20:20.836 --> 00:20:22.019
It really does look like sell the rallies.

395
00:20:22.058 --> 00:20:23.206
I don't know anything about it either.

396
00:20:23.222 --> 00:20:27.003
I just watch the price movements and look
at the graphs, and it's not behaving well.

397
00:20:27.261 --> 00:20:28.933
It's a sick market, as people used to say.

398
00:20:29.011 --> 00:20:29.933
Right, that's it.

399
00:20:30.105 --> 00:20:32.855
Scott, let's have a look at the ups and
downs on the JSC.

400
00:20:33.027 --> 00:20:34.339
You start today, please.

401
00:20:35.573 --> 00:20:39.542
Okay, so just for interest, you actually
mentioned an interesting thing.

402
00:20:39.823 --> 00:20:42.574
uh uh Yeah, the oil retraced today.

403
00:20:43.517 --> 00:20:47.923
And also we've mentioned the strong rally
and the rand as well.

404
00:20:47.962 --> 00:20:50.849
So immediately you would have thought rand
stronger.

405
00:20:51.760 --> 00:20:52.460
Well, no.

406
00:20:52.460 --> 00:20:52.641
Cecil down.

407
00:20:54.981 --> 00:20:55.681
But it wasn't.

408
00:20:55.681 --> 00:20:59.102
I mean, it was sort of a general optimism
on South African stocks.

409
00:20:59.481 --> 00:21:00.181
Nice.

410
00:21:00.181 --> 00:21:01.723
And that was up to something like 2.2% for
the day.

411
00:21:01.763 --> 00:21:03.786
But you were asking the winners and
losers.

412
00:21:03.981 --> 00:21:05.403
Let's concentrate on the winners.

413
00:21:06.302 --> 00:21:08.622
Willys, naturally, the big winner for
today.

414
00:21:08.638 --> 00:21:10.966
I mentioned it earlier, 8.7% up.

415
00:21:11.325 --> 00:21:15.591
Another company that I actually love, it's
a little small company called Udeco.

416
00:21:16.059 --> 00:21:18.747
That was up 5.5% for today.

417
00:21:19.372 --> 00:21:21.654
And then you had Anglo Gold, 5.5%.

418
00:21:22.715 --> 00:21:26.057
Momentum, that was up 5.1%.

419
00:21:26.058 --> 00:21:28.041
Redefine was up 5%.

420
00:21:28.119 --> 00:21:31.783
So it was a good day and a bit of a mixed
bag.

421
00:21:32.385 --> 00:21:36.549
It's not something that's been dominated
by gold stocks or platinum stocks.

422
00:21:36.986 --> 00:21:39.377
It's quite a bit of a mixed bag.

423
00:21:39.408 --> 00:21:40.455
There's some gold in there.

424
00:21:40.518 --> 00:21:44.674
There's some retailers and property stocks
and some general industrial companies.

425
00:21:44.675 --> 00:21:45.955
So that's a good sign.

426
00:21:45.971 --> 00:21:48.502
Let's look at the downside.

427
00:21:49.196 --> 00:21:53.260
We've had MTN, that actually dropped 2.3%.

428
00:21:53.261 --> 00:21:57.467
Blue telecoms, that was down a further
2.2%.

429
00:21:57.584 --> 00:22:01.811
With Suntum, interesting enough, that was
down 1.5%.

430
00:22:02.694 --> 00:22:07.772
And then, what is it, Bytes Technologies,
1.2%.

431
00:22:07.897 --> 00:22:13.178
Interesting enough, just outside the top
five,

432
00:22:13.256 --> 00:22:14.928
we actually had the JSE.

433
00:22:15.893 --> 00:22:22.600
you would have thought on a day like today
we spoke about it didn't we we spoke about

434
00:22:22.600 --> 00:22:24.600
the JSC limited what's been going on there
has it been

435
00:22:24.600 --> 00:22:29.522
quietly doing its thing yeah we again me
and David had a

436
00:22:29.827 --> 00:22:31.866
conversation today on that and

437
00:22:31.867 --> 00:22:38.834
we were sort of in agreeing that the JSC
is a company you can actually have

438
00:22:38.835 --> 00:22:44.673
a look at I'm not invested so let's just
get the T's and C's out of there I'm not

439
00:22:44.673 --> 00:22:46.673
invested but But you and I,

440
00:22:46.673 --> 00:22:48.673
we've been following this daily trade.

441
00:22:48.673 --> 00:22:49.137
And I'm going to mention the daily trade a
little bit earlier again.

442
00:22:49.156 --> 00:22:53.219
But you remember, you and I had this
conversation, I think, beginning of last

443
00:22:53.219 --> 00:22:53.364
year.

444
00:22:53.364 --> 00:22:56.383
So it's about, let's just show off two
years ago.

445
00:22:57.101 --> 00:23:03.211
And we said that period between 2016,
2000, it was called 18, 19-ish,

446
00:23:04.070 --> 00:23:09.039
we had an average daily trade of about
$220 billion per day.

447
00:23:09.898 --> 00:23:12.383
And on that stage, it's beginning of last
year.

448
00:23:12.752 --> 00:23:17.032
We struggled, you remember, we struggled
to make a 20 billion.

449
00:23:17.212 --> 00:23:19.715
Yeah, we were going 15, 17 most days,
wasn't it?

450
00:23:19.716 --> 00:23:21.473
Exactly, exactly.

451
00:23:21.551 --> 00:23:27.294
And then it turned around and lately, I
mean, we're doing easily, you know,

452
00:23:27.755 --> 00:23:31.551
on a daily basis, we're doing, you know,
close to 30 billion.

453
00:23:31.552 --> 00:23:33.489
And then you said, well, let's look at the
share price.

454
00:23:33.490 --> 00:23:36.114
And it was quite disappointing to see.

455
00:23:36.723 --> 00:23:42.051
So, I mean, I would just say this is an
interesting one to be monitoring.

456
00:23:42.820 --> 00:23:44.341
You're keeping me hanging here.

457
00:23:44.761 --> 00:23:46.423
Let's hear the numbers, please.

458
00:23:46.442 --> 00:23:47.263
The share price.

459
00:23:47.321 --> 00:23:48.083
What has it done?

460
00:23:48.200 --> 00:23:48.900
Give it to me.

461
00:23:49.501 --> 00:23:50.201
Down 1%.

462
00:23:51.723 --> 00:23:54.419
In a market that has been bullish.

463
00:23:54.466 --> 00:23:57.481
I mean, the JSE all share really been
running,

464
00:23:58.083 --> 00:24:02.122
but the JSE actual share price down 1%.

465
00:24:02.591 --> 00:24:04.200
Again, just maybe something to monitor.

466
00:24:04.231 --> 00:24:08.325
We've heard today Fidelity Security, a
Volvon's company,

467
00:24:08.403 --> 00:24:11.794
they are planning to have an IPO.

468
00:24:12.248 --> 00:24:19.236
on this company we've recently had optasia
um there's going to be celci being listed

469
00:24:19.236 --> 00:24:21.236
so there's

470
00:24:21.236 --> 00:24:26.080
a few few new companies coming towards the
the jse plus looking at volumes in general

471
00:24:26.080 --> 00:24:28.080
picking up i

472
00:24:28.080 --> 00:24:32.447
mean just maybe just maybe make a note let
you and i we we're gonna we're gonna mark

473
00:24:32.447 --> 00:24:34.447
this jc kind of trading at

474
00:24:34.447 --> 00:24:37.936
135 round levels We're going to check this
again.

475
00:24:37.937 --> 00:24:41.358
Ask that Shapiro fellow next time you see
him next week when you're on telly

476
00:24:41.358 --> 00:24:41.398
together.

477
00:24:41.420 --> 00:24:44.225
Just say, listen, when's your competition
starting?

478
00:24:44.280 --> 00:24:49.827
Because Lindsay and I are going to put the
JSC Limited in your new competition.

479
00:24:50.186 --> 00:24:50.886
Well, I am anyway.

480
00:24:51.647 --> 00:24:53.006
Give us the indices, please.

481
00:24:53.147 --> 00:24:54.147
All good news, I hope.

482
00:24:54.148 --> 00:24:57.522
And also, tell me what the Platinums did,
because we haven't mentioned them.

483
00:24:57.600 --> 00:24:58.334
Please go ahead.

484
00:24:59.959 --> 00:25:01.225
Okay, let's quickly have a look here.

485
00:25:02.060 --> 00:25:08.885
yeah well i know sebastian stillwater had
a whopper but actually that's that's

486
00:25:08.885 --> 00:25:10.885
that's that's that's some some gold as
well

487
00:25:10.885 --> 00:25:14.456
uh impala platinum that was up 2.2 percent
um northern platinum that was up

488
00:25:14.471 --> 00:25:17.612
3.04 percent uh

489
00:25:17.613 --> 00:25:24.549
if we look at volterra volterra 2.91
percent and as i mentioned um and

490
00:25:24.549 --> 00:25:26.549
sebastian stillwater up 3.4

491
00:25:26.549 --> 00:25:30.773
percent so pgm's rocking rocking the jse
for sure um Talking about the JSC, I mean,

492
00:25:30.793 --> 00:25:35.457
as you mentioned earlier, the JSC closed
the day at 112,908 points.

493
00:25:35.558 --> 00:25:37.460
That was up 1.55%.

494
00:25:38.499 --> 00:25:45.304
Being led by the resource index, that was
up 2.2%, slightly followed by the

495
00:25:45.304 --> 00:25:47.304
financial index.

496
00:25:47.304 --> 00:25:49.304
That was up just over 2%.

497
00:25:49.304 --> 00:25:51.734
The asset property index, that was, let's
call it fourth in line, third in line.

498
00:25:51.749 --> 00:25:54.031
That was 1.6% up.

499
00:25:54.640 --> 00:25:55.749
And industrials.

500
00:25:56.498 --> 00:25:58.941
Maybe just struggling a bit with the
stronger RAND.

501
00:25:59.642 --> 00:26:03.083
That was up 0.87% for today.

502
00:26:03.446 --> 00:26:09.134
And now the value traded, as mentioned,
again, today, another 25 billion traded

503
00:26:09.134 --> 00:26:11.134
through the market.

504
00:26:11.134 --> 00:26:13.134
So, yeah, positive all in all.

505
00:26:13.134 --> 00:26:15.134
Very good indeed, Skulk.

506
00:26:15.134 --> 00:26:17.134
Thanks very much.

507
00:26:17.134 --> 00:26:19.134
I've kept you late, but it was well worth
it.

508
00:26:19.134 --> 00:26:21.134
A really, really good day all around.

509
00:26:21.134 --> 00:26:23.134
Everything came to the party.

510
00:26:23.134 --> 00:26:24.001
Skulk, though, is a portfolio manager at
PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

511
00:26:24.032 --> 00:26:25.423
And that was the 5 o'clock shadow.

512
00:26:26.018 --> 00:26:32.960
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

513
00:26:32.960 --> 00:26:34.960
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

514
00:26:34.960 --> 00:26:36.718
position or opinion of any other agency,
organisation,

515
00:26:37.039 --> 00:26:41.664
employer or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

516
00:26:42.148 --> 00:26:49.101
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

517
00:26:49.101 --> 00:26:51.101
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

518
00:26:51.101 --> 00:26:55.570
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

519
00:26:55.570 --> 00:26:57.570
change, revision, and revision.

520
00:26:57.570 --> 00:26:59.570
and rethinking at any time.

521
00:26:59.570 --> 00:27:00.132
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
