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You're listening to Strictly Business
Podcast with Lindsay Williams.

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The JSC has closed its doors for another
day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock

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shadow.

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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to
Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG

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Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

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It's a shame that we're on a Wednesday
night, Skulk.

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If we were on a Thursday night, we could
speak about the US Federal Reserve, the

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European Central Bank,

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the Bank of Japan.

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the meeting between Xi and Trump and all
sorts of other things, but we can't.

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We can just look forward to them and
speculate, can't we?

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Yeah, exactly.

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I think somebody asked me yesterday what
to expect over the next few days, and

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I think my short answer is expect the
unexpected.

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It's just so volatile.

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No, okay, let's take the easy one.

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I mean, it's a straight announcement.

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Interest rate enhancement, quarter of a
percentage, I think that's pretty much in

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the bag.

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We will find the definites in a few hours'
time.

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But as it currently stands, if you look at
the CME effect too, they're talking about

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98%

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probability that we're going to see the
quarter of a percentage rate cut in, it's

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called, a few hours' time.

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I do think that 98% could just be made
100%, because I find it actually strange

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that we're still seeing a 2%

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probability that we'll...

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We're going to see it unchanged.

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The rest, I think, is especially Trump and
Xi Jinping.

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I mean, if you look at the past, let's say
to this tomorrow,

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it'd be three weeks ago when Trump had
that tweet.

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Yeah, you're right.

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Tweet where he said, well, we need to slap
China with a hell of a lot more.

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It was in retaliation to the rare earth
policy of China.

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In other words, just withholding rare
earth exports to the rest of the world.

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It wasn't just the United States, but the
United States, obviously,

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the most reliant upon Chinese rare earths
for its various technological

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applications.

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But that was the retaliation.

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Trump woke up and saw this and says, oh,
100%, get on with it.

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He passes it on to his team and then he
has a press conference or something.

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In the Oval Office, that's the way he
works.

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He just conjures up numbers.

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But then, of course, we hear, oh, there's
been a trade deal being done already

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before the meeting with Xi,

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and so it goes on.

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He's just messing with us, Skulk.

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He's messing with us.

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No, he is.

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And we know that after that, I think it
was a week later, yeah, it was a week

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later,

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which is now a week and a half ago, he
actually...

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tweeted and he said and yes again right
tweeted he told the world that um you know

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the

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the trade war with china is definitely
escalating and then less than a week later

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these two are best buds i mean trump

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just says well you know what we're so
close to a a deal and things are

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really looking good and we've seen the
market since then i mean suddenly that the

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dollars improving.

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I mean, the gold price, as I saw it, is
behind.

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I mean, and most of the other precious
metal prices as well.

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And it's just, what problems?

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There was no problems between the US and
China.

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And it's, before you go on, there's a new
book out from a reporter,

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journalist from ABC News in the United
States.

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Now, ABC is one of the fake news channels,
according to Trump.

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Now, He famously said to this chap, he
says, you have hate in your heart.

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During a question and answer session, he
singled him out and said that.

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But this chap said that I've known him
since 1994.

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And we've actually had really cordial
relations.

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But he feels as though he has to say this
sort of thing in front of people, but

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quietly,

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straight after this rather nasty
altercation.

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He said to him, how's it going?

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How's the family?

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You know, maybe we should get together and
that sort of thing.

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He's completely inconsistent, this Trump
fellow, as we've said on many occasions.

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But it really hit home last night.

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I think the book is called Retribution or
something.

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It's about all the people he's gone after
in his second term.

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And I think I might buy it, Skulk.

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It'll be another one gathering dust on my
bookshelf the next time we speak.

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Yeah, December holidays are coming along
and I always look for nice things to read.

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That might just be something I'll read as
well.

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A client phoned me after that and his
question was, Looking at Trump,

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is he mad?

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Oh yeah.

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Is he stupid?

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Oh yeah.

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Which is absolutely brilliant.

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And I, my answer was yes.

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Yes to all three?

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I think it might be all three.

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It could be.

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You can't achieve what he's achieving and
how he achieves certain things

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without having method to your, and pun
intended, madness.

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I mean, it's, it's.

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It's unbelievable what's happening.

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And my second reply to him was, you know,
we're sitting on the 29th of October.

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And in three months' time,

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we will be exactly one year into his
four-year term.

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And it's already murmuring that he's going
to be the beautiful president that's

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actually going to be able to run

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for third.

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This is what Steve Bannon says.

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I don't know if you subscribe to The
Economist,

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but Steve Bannon has had a lengthy
interview with the editor-in-chief of

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The Economist.

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And he says, without doubt, he's going to
be running for a third term in 2028.

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And he's one of his chief advisors.

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And that's another thing that this ABC
chap said.

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He said, during a very important meeting
of the cabinet, when they were all trying

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to persuade him to do something he didn't
want to do, he said,

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get Bannon on the line.

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He put Bannon on speaker.

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And Bannon called,

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he called Yelensky that effing something.

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And he said, OK, so we're not going to do
this for Ukraine because of what Bannon

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said.

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And Bannon says, 2028, it's going to
happen, Skunk.

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It's going to be attempted, let's put it
that way.

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Yeah, I mean...

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It's so many things can happen.

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I mean, Trump is not young.

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I mean, there's so many things that could
happen.

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But just the pure thought of having
another four years.

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I mean, we're talking about,

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I still need to see us get getting through
this next three years and three months.

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I mean, because this past nine months, 10
months,

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it's just been crazy.

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What's happened?

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I mean, the amount of seesawing that the
markets, yeah, I still stick to it.

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Expect the unexpected.

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We've seen what oil price did a week ago
when Trump just turned around to China and

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said, well,

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just please sanction these two oil
producers, these Russian oil producers.

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And just a small fact of the matter, these
two oil producers, Chinese,

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Russian oil producers produce around about
5% of the total globe's oil.

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Yes.

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And we saw the reaction of the world
price.

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I think the world price that day was
something like 5% or 6% up.

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And then everything just sort of murmured
down.

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Everything was fine again for the past
week.

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I think we are in for a crazy time.

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And I can't tell you.

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I mean, if you ask me where we're going to
sit just at the end of this week, I

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literally can't tell you.

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I literally can't tell you.

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Make sure that your portfolio is well
diversified for both actions because, man,

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we're going to be in.

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And then add into this mix, the next few
days, I mean, I think Wednesday,

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today alone, we've got Microsoft,
Alphabet,

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and Meta who's going to be reporting.

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And then followed on Thursday by Amazon
and Apple.

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Oh, my goodness me.

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These firms that I just mentioned make up
25% of the S&P 500.

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So literally in the next, let's call it
24, 48 hours, we're going to have the

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biggest firms,

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which is...

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Have they guided?

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Have they guided satisfactorily?

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Or do they do the guidance a little bit
closer to the actual results than they do

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in South Africa?

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Yeah, they did.

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And these days...

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I don't want to say it's very similar to
2000, where the guides are a lot less on

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earnings.

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Back in 2000,

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it was more to do with how many computers
have we sold and how many Windows packages

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have we sold.

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And it was more that the revenue will
ultimately be converted into earnings.

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Now, they're talking about what's the

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CapEx predictions for 2026 in terms of
what's going to be your...

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AI-related CapEx.

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And you want to take a guess, just these
companies and they have Microsoft,

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Alphabet, Meta and Amazon,

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what are they combined expected or
projected?

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CapEx is going to be for AI-related spend.

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I would say probably each must be spending
$100 billion, something like that.

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Yeah, that was actually great, and it's
very close to being spot on.

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All three of them,

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all four of them are projected to spend
$420 billion on AI-related CapEx.

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And this year, that spend was $360 billion
for these four companies.

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So it's not going to stop.

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And this is just, I mean, one of my
colleagues sat in the morning meeting this

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morning when we discussed this.

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And just, I know he's going to listen to
this and he's going to know exactly what

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I'm talking about.

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But he must be the guy that went over to
something like WhatsApp,

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the latest of any human being on the face
of this earth.

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But I mean, his words were, I just can't
comprehend these.

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And just think of these, how are these
money ultimately going to be made?

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How are we going to justify 420 billion?

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In other words, they're going to have to
increase.

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It's not just their own profits, but it's
also the GDP of the nation in which they

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do business, i.e.

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the United States of America mainly.

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I saw a very good article about it and I
didn't understand it, but it was all to

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do.

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where GDP would have to grow a certain
amount in order to justify the amount of

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money that's being spent on AI

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in the CapEx field, and also the amount of
electricity that's got to be generated.

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And will it be the biggest waste of time?

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What did Meta do, the metaverse?

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Wasn't that a giant waste of time?

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Again, it sort of drifted off.

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Luckily, the headlines became AI headlines
rather than failure headlines for a

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previous project.

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But yes, you're right, Skalk, 420 billion.

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And it's fear of missing out, of course.

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If one is spending 100 billion, the other
one's got to spend 150 billion in order to

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poach more people.

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Have you seen how much money these people
are being offered?

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100 million sign-on fees, that sort of
thing.

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It's a crazy, crazy, crazy environment.

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And to your questions, did this excite,
you know, after this announcement on the

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CapEx, after the announcement,

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Amazon's share rose 1%, Microsoft shares
gained 2%.

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No results, no, nothing.

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It's just, there's a general optimism.

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Suddenly, it's back.

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So, yes, you've got this very weird
political, geopolitical environment.

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where we're currently finding ourselves,
but also a very, very interesting

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valuation scenario.

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Because the markets are still very much
driven by these AI-related type of

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companies.

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There's one thing I would like to say,
because we've been rambling on about money

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and AI, etc.

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And we've got to wait for their results
next week, if they disappoint, which I'm

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sure they won't.

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then the risk is to the downside.

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But let's not forget about that.

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Let's look at the Fed tonight, because
that's the big one.

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That's the first step.

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They'll cut rates.

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Everybody knows that.

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But afterwards, if there is some kind of
hesitation about the second cut,

238
00:13:32.726 --> 00:13:35.211
this is the penultimate Fed meeting of the
year, by the way.

239
00:13:35.226 --> 00:13:38.398
There's another one coming up, obviously,
before year end.

240
00:13:38.976 --> 00:13:43.836
If there is any hesitation that there
might be a rate cut for the last meeting

241
00:13:43.836 --> 00:13:45.836
of the year,

242
00:13:45.836 --> 00:13:49.011
then the risk in the market is to the
downside scale, isn't it?

243
00:13:49.012 --> 00:13:55.777
I mean, it's price for perfection at the
moment with the S&P futures 6,938 at an

244
00:13:55.777 --> 00:13:55.915
all-time

245
00:13:55.915 --> 00:13:56.516
record high.

246
00:13:56.516 --> 00:14:00.121
And I saw a couple of weeks ago people
say, maybe we could see

247
00:14:00.558 --> 00:14:06.043
7,000 in early 2026 for the S&P.

248
00:14:06.464 --> 00:14:08.089
It's just like the gold price.

249
00:14:08.293 --> 00:14:12.433
We might see it at 4,000 when it was 3,800
or something.

250
00:14:12.837 --> 00:14:13.978
It's that sort of prediction.

251
00:14:14.017 --> 00:14:15.278
It's now almost there.

252
00:14:15.738 --> 00:14:21.342
So the slightest chink in the armor of the
bulls, and we're going to come crashing

253
00:14:21.342 --> 00:14:23.342
down.

254
00:14:23.342 --> 00:14:25.342
Just briefly, though.

255
00:14:25.342 --> 00:14:25.881
Yeah, it's interesting.

256
00:14:26.342 --> 00:14:31.967
Let's first see who's going to hit that
7,000 mark first, gold or the S&P 500.

257
00:14:33.404 --> 00:14:34.483
Gold's been fun, hasn't it?

258
00:14:34.484 --> 00:14:37.826
Yeah, it's been a fun year.

259
00:14:37.842 --> 00:14:39.295
But local front as well.

260
00:14:39.326 --> 00:14:41.561
I mean, back to markets and...

261
00:14:42.369 --> 00:14:45.331
I would say not today's movements, but I
think today's news.

262
00:14:46.413 --> 00:14:49.374
It's this upcoming listing of Optasia.

263
00:14:50.374 --> 00:14:53.202
Lindsay, you don't know how many times I
need to pay you.

264
00:14:53.741 --> 00:14:55.585
The Disney movie reference.

265
00:14:56.421 --> 00:14:57.121
That's it.

266
00:14:57.121 --> 00:14:57.722
That's it.

267
00:14:57.843 --> 00:15:03.312
I mean, for the listeners out there,
Lindsay, I think we chatted about when you

268
00:15:03.312 --> 00:15:05.312
mentioned Optasia.

269
00:15:05.312 --> 00:15:06.468
I think your first question was, it sounds
like a Disney movie.

270
00:15:06.469 --> 00:15:09.593
And now I can't get rid of it.

271
00:15:09.874 --> 00:15:10.574
And this week.

272
00:15:11.279 --> 00:15:12.023
I can't remember.

273
00:15:12.024 --> 00:15:14.418
I think it might have been Monday or
Tuesday.

274
00:15:14.968 --> 00:15:15.768
Yeah, it was Monday.

275
00:15:16.588 --> 00:15:19.768
There was an announcement both for Aptasia
and Astoria.

276
00:15:20.670 --> 00:15:27.131
And I'm sitting at this, and when I said
Astoria are going to delist from the JSE

277
00:15:27.131 --> 00:15:29.131
and Aptasia is going to be listing on the

278
00:15:29.131 --> 00:15:30.412
it sounds like two Disney movies now, not
just one.

279
00:15:33.459 --> 00:15:40.459
But, I mean, talking about the one Disney
movie, and it's currently a Disney movie

280
00:15:40.459 --> 00:15:42.459
story because, I mean, we all know that

281
00:15:42.459 --> 00:15:43.928
Michael Jordan is one of the largest
shareholders.

282
00:15:44.504 --> 00:15:48.524
and also can be involved on the management
side.

283
00:15:48.525 --> 00:15:51.005
So I've got great respect.

284
00:15:51.286 --> 00:15:53.630
I think he's one of our, let's call it,

285
00:15:53.669 --> 00:16:00.145
our leading intellectual capitalists in
South Africa.

286
00:16:00.286 --> 00:16:02.927
I mean, he's just phenomenal.

287
00:16:04.395 --> 00:16:08.005
It's really a 360.

288
00:16:08.567 --> 00:16:11.708
I mean, we know a few years ago he was the
CEO.

289
00:16:12.568 --> 00:16:19.014
of FNB and then he eventually said he's
finished and he started things like

290
00:16:19.076 --> 00:16:25.959
Optasia and what was it Bank Zero and this
week we've a lot past

291
00:16:25.960 --> 00:16:32.131
few weeks we didn't just have there's a
story about Optasia we know the Saka

292
00:16:32.131 --> 00:16:34.131
Technologies they they bought

293
00:16:34.131 --> 00:16:38.928
Bank Zero for 1.1 billion rand the you
know more fintech stories we've had

294
00:16:39.990 --> 00:16:46.819
old mutual I think earlier this week They
mentioned that they're buying 10X for, I

295
00:16:46.819 --> 00:16:47.218
think,

296
00:16:47.338 --> 00:16:53.725
2 billion rand, or 85% at least of it, but
it's pretty much a buy.

297
00:16:53.726 --> 00:16:56.326
And then NetBank, they bought that at
Kauka.

298
00:16:57.709 --> 00:17:02.279
And yesterday, the announcement came up,
two days ago, the announcement came, there

299
00:17:02.279 --> 00:17:02.636
we go,

300
00:17:02.636 --> 00:17:08.951
F&B just bought 20.1% of this Optasia for
4.7 billion.

301
00:17:09.295 --> 00:17:10.514
So, I mean...

302
00:17:10.892 --> 00:17:17.774
going from they clearly knew whom they
they work with i mean this uh this is not

303
00:17:17.774 --> 00:17:19.774
just a great maybe they've been given

304
00:17:19.774 --> 00:17:24.617
not privileged information but uh
pertinent information another p word

305
00:17:24.617 --> 00:17:26.617
pertinent not privileged from from the
person

306
00:17:26.617 --> 00:17:28.617
concerned sounds

307
00:17:28.617 --> 00:17:33.203
like it could be possible yeah without
breaking any rules of course no no no for

308
00:17:33.203 --> 00:17:35.203
sure but but remember they

309
00:17:35.203 --> 00:17:39.813
they know most probably know michael
erdogan better than any any any other

310
00:17:39.813 --> 00:17:41.813
company out there i mean if If...

311
00:17:41.813 --> 00:17:45.393
If it was the CEO, naturally the companies
should know them better.

312
00:17:45.394 --> 00:17:49.495
But be that as it may, they've now bought
over 20% before the listing.

313
00:17:49.557 --> 00:17:53.901
Listing expecting on the 4th of November.

314
00:17:55.065 --> 00:17:55.846
It's been postponed.

315
00:17:55.847 --> 00:17:56.862
I think it was a little bit earlier.

316
00:17:56.909 --> 00:17:58.846
But now we're going to...

317
00:17:58.847 --> 00:18:02.237
And Michael Jordan had a tweet today where
we actually...

318
00:18:02.238 --> 00:18:02.938
And I'm going to read this.

319
00:18:02.971 --> 00:18:07.581
Optasia order book is now covered multiple
times at 19 Rand.

320
00:18:09.520 --> 00:18:13.763
The IPO pricing and allocation are
expected to be released on Thursday.

321
00:18:13.802 --> 00:18:18.481
So by tomorrow, for the listeners out
there that don't know what I just read,

322
00:18:19.239 --> 00:18:25.356
what this tweet basically says is by
tomorrow, you will know if you applied for

323
00:18:25.356 --> 00:18:27.356
Optasia shares,

324
00:18:27.356 --> 00:18:27.997
you will know what allocation has been
given to you.

325
00:18:28.559 --> 00:18:32.184
And then on the 4th of November, it will
make its listing.

326
00:18:32.231 --> 00:18:38.044
But by the looks of it, when somebody
says, you know, the order book has been

327
00:18:38.044 --> 00:18:38.306
covered,

328
00:18:38.512 --> 00:18:45.439
multiple times do not expect if you put in
a hundred thousand rand to buy up to your

329
00:18:45.439 --> 00:18:45.698
shares

330
00:18:45.698 --> 00:18:51.861
probably get five yeah exactly yeah your
chances of getting your hundred thousand

331
00:18:51.861 --> 00:18:53.861
rand will be really really

332
00:18:53.861 --> 00:18:56.174
so very very you know what it is i mean
obviously a

333
00:18:56.205 --> 00:19:03.174
great pedigree management wise a good
product as far as i know but also the

334
00:19:03.299 --> 00:19:07.174
complete dearth of new listings that has
been on the jsc

335
00:19:07.656 --> 00:19:13.541
for so long and with the markets doing
what they're doing you fund managers are

336
00:19:13.541 --> 00:19:15.541
awash with cash skulk

337
00:19:15.541 --> 00:19:21.487
yeah no it's um it's it's it's actually
optimistic i'm glad to see this i mean

338
00:19:21.487 --> 00:19:23.487
because we've we've

339
00:19:23.487 --> 00:19:25.080
been focused on the companies that's deal
listing on

340
00:19:25.518 --> 00:19:31.674
the the woes of the jse i mean we've been
talking about the net foreign sellers

341
00:19:31.674 --> 00:19:33.674
which we still see

342
00:19:33.674 --> 00:19:35.705
uh on on on the jse but but We've been so
focused on...

343
00:19:35.992 --> 00:19:37.134
the net foreign sellers.

344
00:19:37.153 --> 00:19:38.315
Well, the first step is there.

345
00:19:38.475 --> 00:19:40.417
Last Friday, we've been removed from the
gray list.

346
00:19:40.878 --> 00:19:43.858
And clearly already, you can start seeing,
not talking about just Optasia,

347
00:19:43.882 --> 00:19:48.764
you can start seeing some interest again
coming towards the JSC.

348
00:19:48.843 --> 00:19:53.249
And I wouldn't be surprised if we see a
few more people.

349
00:19:53.889 --> 00:19:54.858
What was the other company?

350
00:19:55.233 --> 00:19:57.655
It was SAB. What was that?

351
00:19:57.671 --> 00:19:58.499
The bottling company?

352
00:20:00.280 --> 00:20:02.593
The Coca-Cola bottling company.

353
00:20:02.594 --> 00:20:03.483
Coca-Cola bottling.

354
00:20:04.301 --> 00:20:07.166
That's going to be a secondary listing on
the JSE as well.

355
00:20:07.406 --> 00:20:08.386
That is going to be big.

356
00:20:08.406 --> 00:20:11.714
I think they're talking about a $44
billion listing.

357
00:20:12.175 --> 00:20:15.402
Naturally, it's going to be secondary, but
still, this is positive for the JSE.

358
00:20:15.980 --> 00:20:16.722
Be there, Sidmaye.

359
00:20:17.718 --> 00:20:18.859
I'm going to look at this.

360
00:20:19.300 --> 00:20:26.068
I think I would like to get a David in,
but David mentioned the other day, he

361
00:20:26.068 --> 00:20:28.068
said, well, this might be a good stack,

362
00:20:28.068 --> 00:20:30.068
sort of quote unquote.

363
00:20:30.068 --> 00:20:30.927
And for the listeners out there that don't
know what we're talking about,

364
00:20:30.990 --> 00:20:37.865
this was sort of an analogy that was used
back in the days where you sort of could

365
00:20:37.865 --> 00:20:39.865
apply for shares and

366
00:20:39.865 --> 00:20:41.865
immediately win the list.

367
00:20:41.865 --> 00:20:43.865
Sell them.

368
00:20:43.865 --> 00:20:45.865
You sell them again and you're trying to
make a bit of a profit.

369
00:20:45.865 --> 00:20:47.052
This could just be, I mean, you just
mentioned, And this could just be.

370
00:20:47.054 --> 00:20:50.475
be a company, it's got the right
buzzwords.

371
00:20:50.495 --> 00:20:51.616
It's got fintech.

372
00:20:51.815 --> 00:20:53.034
It's got AI.

373
00:20:53.577 --> 00:21:00.440
And their clients, or they call it their
business partners, are the likes of the

374
00:21:00.440 --> 00:21:02.440
MTNs, the Vodacoms.

375
00:21:02.440 --> 00:21:05.190
And also on the banking side, they've got
Standard Banks and now F&B.

376
00:21:06.331 --> 00:21:12.112
My first point was, I think we had this
discussion when we talked about the Disney

377
00:21:12.112 --> 00:21:14.112
movie for the first time.

378
00:21:14.112 --> 00:21:16.112
I would not be surprised.

379
00:21:16.112 --> 00:21:16.845
If their business partners say, wait a
minute,

380
00:21:17.925 --> 00:21:24.796
you can actually use AI to look at the
credit scores and sort of mitigate any

381
00:21:25.132 --> 00:21:27.593
possible bad debts.

382
00:21:27.718 --> 00:21:33.921
I mean, this could be a good company to
buy and put into a MTN or into a F&B.

383
00:21:34.343 --> 00:21:35.499
Well, the first step has been made.

384
00:21:35.639 --> 00:21:38.389
F&B has already said, we'll take a fifth
of the company.

385
00:21:38.749 --> 00:21:42.093
And I would not be surprised if we see
some action.

386
00:21:42.934 --> 00:21:44.175
going forward in the next few weeks.

387
00:21:44.176 --> 00:21:45.917
It's got all the ingredients, hasn't it?

388
00:21:45.918 --> 00:21:49.581
It's got a scarcity of new companies
coming to the JSC.

389
00:21:49.682 --> 00:21:51.745
It's got the management we've spoken
about.

390
00:21:53.542 --> 00:21:58.010
It's doing all the right things at the
right time with the right products and

391
00:21:58.010 --> 00:22:00.010
with the right management.

392
00:22:00.010 --> 00:22:00.948
And goodness me, it's going to fly, Skulk.

393
00:22:01.885 --> 00:22:05.557
If the market conditions are as they are
at the moment, it'll fly.

394
00:22:05.932 --> 00:22:12.032
On the other hand, it could be one of
those things where you look back and you

395
00:22:12.032 --> 00:22:14.032
say, That was when the market peaked.

396
00:22:14.032 --> 00:22:14.494
We knew when that Disney movie listed.

397
00:22:15.275 --> 00:22:17.576
That signalled the end of it.

398
00:22:18.900 --> 00:22:20.259
Sorry, Michael, if you're listening.

399
00:22:22.502 --> 00:22:28.041
OK, let's have a look at some numbers now,
because we've been rambling on like a

400
00:22:28.041 --> 00:22:30.041
couple of old fishwives.

401
00:22:30.041 --> 00:22:32.041
Here we go.

402
00:22:32.041 --> 00:22:34.041
Dollar Rand, lovely.

403
00:22:34.041 --> 00:22:36.431
It's going to break the big figure of 17
very soon, and from the wrong direction,

404
00:22:36.432 --> 00:22:38.103
it's going to go 17 to 16.

405
00:22:38.430 --> 00:22:44.072
right direction for south africa in my
opinion 1711 at the moment though the

406
00:22:44.072 --> 00:22:46.072
dollar round euro round is

407
00:22:46.072 --> 00:22:46.869
1993.

408
00:22:46.870 --> 00:22:50.033
uh euro parting like it's 1993.

409
00:22:50.034 --> 00:22:55.596
the euro dollar or not on the other hand
uh euro dollar 116.50 which is virtually

410
00:22:55.596 --> 00:22:57.596
unchanged pound

411
00:22:57.596 --> 00:22:58.517
132 32.

412
00:22:58.518 --> 00:23:02.689
um okay over to the gold price i know this
gold price i've been watching every day

413
00:23:03.314 --> 00:23:08.658
And it was two Fridays ago that it hit
4,391,

414
00:23:08.659 --> 00:23:14.205
came crashing down on the Monday and got
to 42.50.

415
00:23:14.221 --> 00:23:14.921
Excuse me.

416
00:23:15.830 --> 00:23:21.799
Then the next day it went up to 4,398,
within a whisker of 4,400 on my screen

417
00:23:21.799 --> 00:23:21.811
anyway.

418
00:23:22.252 --> 00:23:26.158
And then, since then, in a period of about
eight days,

419
00:23:26.580 --> 00:23:30.846
it fell to a low of just above 3,900.

420
00:23:31.234 --> 00:23:37.860
So let's say that this is close to a $500
fall in a 10-day period,

421
00:23:37.962 --> 00:23:38.662
Skulk.

422
00:23:38.880 --> 00:23:39.580
How's that?

423
00:23:40.083 --> 00:23:42.028
I mean, that is incredible, isn't it?

424
00:23:42.927 --> 00:23:44.169
If you're a gold bull, not nice.

425
00:23:44.170 --> 00:23:45.669
There was a great meme.

426
00:23:45.670 --> 00:23:46.692
I need to tell you this, Liz.

427
00:23:46.708 --> 00:23:47.833
It's a great, great meme.

428
00:23:47.834 --> 00:23:52.317
It's Matthew McConaughey sitting on this
photo, and he's, like, all buffed up, and

429
00:23:52.317 --> 00:23:54.317
he's shiny.

430
00:23:54.317 --> 00:23:58.989
I mean, even his skin is golden, and he's
got this massive smile.

431
00:23:59.505 --> 00:24:00.505
And then it says...

432
00:24:01.154 --> 00:24:07.879
the gold what is it uh what is it uh gold
traders when gold hit four thousand

433
00:24:07.922 --> 00:24:08.622
dollar on the

434
00:24:08.922 --> 00:24:15.828
7th of october and then it next thing is
this bleak it looks like he's gonna die

435
00:24:15.828 --> 00:24:17.828
any second he's

436
00:24:17.828 --> 00:24:22.953
white he's pale he's thin he just looked
like he's gonna die any second don't tell

437
00:24:22.953 --> 00:24:24.953
me it's gold traders when gold hit four

438
00:24:24.953 --> 00:24:29.125
thousand on this date yeah exactly i
thought it was brilliant and such a

439
00:24:29.838 --> 00:24:36.584
stunning way of of explaining exactly
where we're sitting ah gold price four

440
00:24:36.584 --> 00:24:38.584
thousand dollars again i think four

441
00:24:38.584 --> 00:24:43.432
thousand and nine i'm going through the
numbers four thousand and nine at one and

442
00:24:43.432 --> 00:24:45.432
a half a cent and i just wanted to just
add before we

443
00:24:45.432 --> 00:24:50.338
before we forget i mean you mentioned the
the currencies and it's a it's a it's a

444
00:24:50.338 --> 00:24:52.338
stunning point you're making i mean it's
going to drop

445
00:24:52.338 --> 00:24:57.385
to the wrong side basically improving from
17 to the 16 levels pretty soon i mean we

446
00:24:57.385 --> 00:24:59.385
it

447
00:24:59.385 --> 00:25:01.385
seems like that's sort of a...

448
00:25:01.385 --> 00:25:03.385
No brainer, it's going to happen.

449
00:25:03.385 --> 00:25:05.385
But interesting one.

450
00:25:05.385 --> 00:25:07.385
You know, I like my data.

451
00:25:07.385 --> 00:25:11.436
We've had three quarters in a row now
where the rent

452
00:25:11.553 --> 00:25:14.280
improved against the US dollar.

453
00:25:14.319 --> 00:25:17.014
That's a long time since you've been able
to say that.

454
00:25:17.850 --> 00:25:18.590
That's it.

455
00:25:18.591 --> 00:25:22.972
The last time we've seen that was in 2020.

456
00:25:22.973 --> 00:25:24.913
And remember why that's significant.

457
00:25:25.351 --> 00:25:30.733
In 2020, we had the run-up to the junk
status.

458
00:25:30.991 --> 00:25:33.054
We've been downgraded to junk status.

459
00:25:33.055 --> 00:25:37.741
That was March, I think March 2020.

460
00:25:37.742 --> 00:25:43.257
And remember, straight after we've
actually been downgraded, before that is

461
00:25:43.257 --> 00:25:45.257
called a downgrade,

462
00:25:45.257 --> 00:25:47.257
we've just...

463
00:25:47.257 --> 00:25:49.257
Every single quarter,

464
00:25:49.257 --> 00:25:52.038
we've seen the RAND lose ground against
the US dollar.

465
00:25:52.198 --> 00:25:53.019
Every single quarter.

466
00:25:53.042 --> 00:25:54.503
So I try to go back.

467
00:25:54.683 --> 00:25:57.417
I think you didn't see any three quarters
in a row.

468
00:25:57.464 --> 00:26:03.300
So literally, this is the longest positive
run for the

469
00:26:03.815 --> 00:26:06.581
RAND in at least five years.

470
00:26:07.081 --> 00:26:10.987
And if you strip out that three quarters,

471
00:26:11.956 --> 00:26:14.409
then this has been the best run we've seen
in the RAND.

472
00:26:14.566 --> 00:26:15.507
pretty much for 10 years.

473
00:26:15.508 --> 00:26:17.448
So this is a great moment.

474
00:26:17.449 --> 00:26:18.190
It's a great moment.

475
00:26:18.549 --> 00:26:25.456
And as we sit here, 29th of October, into
the fourth quarter, we're again stronger

476
00:26:25.456 --> 00:26:27.456
for this quarter.

477
00:26:27.456 --> 00:26:29.456
I don't want to jinx it.

478
00:26:29.456 --> 00:26:31.456
I don't want to jinx it.

479
00:26:31.456 --> 00:26:33.456
Too late.

480
00:26:33.456 --> 00:26:35.456
I can't see.

481
00:26:35.456 --> 00:26:37.323
I can't see any four quarter for the past
decade in a row where we've seen the round

482
00:26:37.385 --> 00:26:38.085
improve.

483
00:26:38.085 --> 00:26:38.667
So here we go.

484
00:26:38.826 --> 00:26:39.526
Here we go.

485
00:26:39.526 --> 00:26:39.907
Fingers crossed.

486
00:26:39.948 --> 00:26:45.852
I don't know how you hijacked me on the
giving the commodity prices to an analysis

487
00:26:45.852 --> 00:26:47.852
on the Rand and other currencies.

488
00:26:47.852 --> 00:26:49.274
But now you've got me going because, you
know, I know you're sensitive.

489
00:26:49.275 --> 00:26:52.579
You know, as you get to a certain age,
Scott, you become sensitive about your

490
00:26:52.579 --> 00:26:52.857
age.

491
00:26:52.857 --> 00:26:55.969
And I can sense that you're doing the
same.

492
00:26:55.985 --> 00:26:58.329
Before you know it, you'll be buying a
convertible.

493
00:26:58.330 --> 00:27:02.172
You're talking about a midlife crisis.

494
00:27:02.235 --> 00:27:03.813
And opening another gym membership.

495
00:27:04.125 --> 00:27:07.641
But if somebody says to you, Scott, I'll
call you, by the way.

496
00:27:07.990 --> 00:27:12.975
and you'll say to them, I'm approaching
50, but from the wrong side.

497
00:27:13.417 --> 00:27:16.276
That's always a good joke.

498
00:27:20.839 --> 00:27:22.526
Yeah, I might just use that one.

499
00:27:22.527 --> 00:27:23.323
You must use that.

500
00:27:23.324 --> 00:27:28.417
I've nicked it from somebody else, the
great Barry Humphries, the comedian.

501
00:27:28.433 --> 00:27:31.511
But anyway, stop interrupting me.

502
00:27:31.589 --> 00:27:34.901
The platinum price is 16.05, which is up
1.3%.

503
00:27:35.011 --> 00:27:36.933
Palladium is up 2.1%.

504
00:27:37.062 --> 00:27:38.902
to 14.48.

505
00:27:38.903 --> 00:27:42.744
Now let's have a look at some other
commodities because they've been

506
00:27:42.744 --> 00:27:44.744
fascinating.

507
00:27:44.744 --> 00:27:49.244
64.85 is the current Brent crude oil price
which is down

508
00:27:49.268 --> 00:27:50.705
1.2 percent.

509
00:27:50.729 --> 00:27:55.924
60.64 is West Texas crude which is down
1.1 percent.

510
00:27:56.299 --> 00:27:57.361
What am I talking about?

511
00:27:57.893 --> 00:28:00.189
Brent crude oil is 65.16.

512
00:28:00.346 --> 00:28:01.643
The screen has just refreshed.

513
00:28:02.846 --> 00:28:04.111
Delete the last 30 seconds.

514
00:28:04.127 --> 00:28:06.205
65.16 for Brent Crudeall.

515
00:28:06.408 --> 00:28:07.108
Up.

516
00:28:07.108 --> 00:28:13.295
1.1 percent and west texas 60.79 which is
up 1.1 percent as well the copper

517
00:28:13.338 --> 00:28:15.201
price is now

518
00:28:15.756 --> 00:28:22.748
5.24 per pound up 1.9 percent on the day
and it's

519
00:28:23.264 --> 00:28:29.889
in a very tight supply demand balance and
because of a an incident at a

520
00:28:29.998 --> 00:28:35.764
prominent mine they're losing two to three
hundred thousand tons of production.

521
00:28:36.074 --> 00:28:40.518
So that's tipped the market a bit, and
it's been going like this for two weeks

522
00:28:40.518 --> 00:28:40.757
now.

523
00:28:40.920 --> 00:28:42.080
So looking pretty good.

524
00:28:42.139 --> 00:28:46.303
Look at any copper chart, and you'll see
that this is in a bull market.

525
00:28:46.366 --> 00:28:51.006
It's almost paying it's catching onto the
coattails of the precious metals.

526
00:28:51.186 --> 00:28:57.420
It's up over 21%

527
00:28:57.436 --> 00:28:58.436
for the past 12 months.

528
00:28:58.514 --> 00:28:59.264
That is big.

529
00:28:59.530 --> 00:29:00.795
You didn't mention iron ore.

530
00:29:00.842 --> 00:29:05.295
I mean, iron ore is an interesting one
because people I mean, I've been in quite

531
00:29:05.295 --> 00:29:07.295
a few interviews.

532
00:29:07.295 --> 00:29:12.606
this this past it's got a few months where
a lot of people just sort of got the view

533
00:29:12.606 --> 00:29:14.606
that that iron oil prices will

534
00:29:14.606 --> 00:29:19.711
be dwindling downwards and they were sort
of right until july it did go from run

535
00:29:19.711 --> 00:29:19.810
about the

536
00:29:19.813 --> 00:29:21.836
105 ish dollars

537
00:29:22.602 --> 00:29:29.024
per ton um to just below 94 dollars which
which people forecasted but

538
00:29:29.539 --> 00:29:34.930
slowly slowly it caught the woman again
it's right back from july up to now it's

539
00:29:34.930 --> 00:29:35.208
back

540
00:29:35.386 --> 00:29:39.349
close to its highest for the year, back to
close to $106 per ton.

541
00:29:39.591 --> 00:29:45.158
We saw the trading update coming from
Kumba yesterday, and that had a really,

542
00:29:45.298 --> 00:29:47.079
really positive effect on the share price.

543
00:29:47.517 --> 00:29:51.040
And so it's, yes, we've had this
conversation.

544
00:29:51.064 --> 00:29:52.744
The precious metals kicked up.

545
00:29:52.837 --> 00:29:56.525
It was first gold, and then shortly after
that,

546
00:29:56.931 --> 00:30:00.212
we had its little brothers.

547
00:30:00.869 --> 00:30:01.569
That ran.

548
00:30:02.039 --> 00:30:05.607
And then by April, people realized, wait a
minute, there's more things that shine.

549
00:30:06.288 --> 00:30:13.154
um and and there there went platinum
palladium rhodium those prices copper just

550
00:30:13.154 --> 00:30:15.154
to to medley medley

551
00:30:15.154 --> 00:30:20.143
went it went up and still going upwards
and now copper's got proper fundamentals

552
00:30:20.143 --> 00:30:22.143
though you can say gold gold and

553
00:30:22.143 --> 00:30:26.588
silver and you know their shine and their
stores of value and everything but copper

554
00:30:26.588 --> 00:30:28.588
is part of the whole ai

555
00:30:28.588 --> 00:30:32.501
uh tech revolution behind the scenes and
uh There's the demand equation.

556
00:30:32.542 --> 00:30:36.708
The demand side of the equation in copper
is very compelling for any potential bull.

557
00:30:37.005 --> 00:30:38.169
Anyway, we've done that one.

558
00:30:38.927 --> 00:30:42.208
South African 10-year bond scale, 8.84%.

559
00:30:42.209 --> 00:30:42.909
Goodness me.

560
00:30:43.169 --> 00:30:47.942
If you're talking about foreigners coming
in and buying equities, they must have

561
00:30:47.942 --> 00:30:49.942
been buying bonds.

562
00:30:49.942 --> 00:30:53.286
That was 11.09% in early April, 11.09% the
yield.

563
00:30:53.724 --> 00:30:58.474
It's fallen to 8.84%, which is an inverse
relationship between the yield.

564
00:30:58.720 --> 00:31:02.403
and the actual bond price, the bond price
through the roof in South Africa,

565
00:31:02.825 --> 00:31:06.770
and also in the United States to a lesser
extent, the U.S.

566
00:31:07.067 --> 00:31:10.255
10-year bond yield is 3.999%.

567
00:31:10.256 --> 00:31:14.841
Now, my trade of the day, Skulk, for when
we next meet, is sell the U.S.

568
00:31:14.903 --> 00:31:16.513
bond market because it's all baked in.

569
00:31:16.591 --> 00:31:23.106
Everything that the Fed is going to say
tonight, Jerome Powell, soon-to-be

570
00:31:23.106 --> 00:31:25.106
ex-chair, is going to spout on.

571
00:31:25.106 --> 00:31:25.653
But I think that that yield will rise.

572
00:31:25.669 --> 00:31:27.450
In other words, the bond price will fall.

573
00:31:27.732 --> 00:31:32.118
So I'm a seller of the US 10-year and will
work on the yield of, let's say, 4%.

574
00:31:32.458 --> 00:31:35.079
The yield will be higher the next time we
speak.

575
00:31:35.723 --> 00:31:40.887
S&P 500 futures, I told you earlier on,

576
00:31:40.888 --> 00:31:42.911
it was 6,938.

577
00:31:42.912 --> 00:31:44.926
So I'll have to take that because my
screen's not working.

578
00:31:44.927 --> 00:31:49.067
6,939.75 to be precise, up to

579
00:31:50.098 --> 00:31:52.536
0.2%. Nothing will happen for the next
three or four hours.

580
00:31:53.723 --> 00:31:56.567
Okay, I think that's about it apart from
Bitcoin.

581
00:31:56.872 --> 00:32:00.814
Skullclaw, I've got Bitcoin trading at
something.

582
00:32:01.232 --> 00:32:07.693
It's been down to 108 up to 125 in the
last two, three months.

583
00:32:07.998 --> 00:32:11.732
Currently just below 112,000, down 2.5%.

584
00:32:11.733 --> 00:32:15.279
Somebody recklessly said you'll never see
it below 100,000 again.

585
00:32:15.716 --> 00:32:17.373
Cue the big sell-off, I reckon.

586
00:32:19.263 --> 00:32:20.498
JSC Indices, if you would.

587
00:32:21.482 --> 00:32:22.482
Or have you fallen asleep?

588
00:32:22.513 --> 00:32:23.213
No, there you are.

589
00:32:23.240 --> 00:32:25.383
Go on.

590
00:32:25.502 --> 00:32:26.202
Where were we?

591
00:32:28.004 --> 00:32:33.227
No, it's just thinking about your opinion,

592
00:32:33.711 --> 00:32:39.930
looking at a bond retracement or bond
yield retracement,

593
00:32:40.024 --> 00:32:41.992
basically a drop in the prices.

594
00:32:43.461 --> 00:32:45.461
That is an interesting one because I do
share it.

595
00:32:46.039 --> 00:32:51.805
And for listeners out there, if you want
to extrapolate, if you want to look at

596
00:32:51.805 --> 00:32:53.805
this, and let's say you're 100% right.

597
00:32:53.805 --> 00:32:55.743
then you will see the dollar much weaker.

598
00:32:56.143 --> 00:32:58.587
So that brings in that dollar-rand.

599
00:32:58.665 --> 00:33:02.552
If the rand even does nothing, we will see
it go to the

600
00:33:02.973 --> 00:33:06.137
16-rand levels in a pretty short period of
time.

601
00:33:06.153 --> 00:33:09.262
So the dollar will be weakening if that's
the case.

602
00:33:10.231 --> 00:33:17.137
If you've got the viewpoint that we're
going to see long bond yields increase and

603
00:33:17.137 --> 00:33:17.603
the

604
00:33:17.603 --> 00:33:21.169
dollar weaken, that suddenly brings the
gold price.

605
00:33:21.812 --> 00:33:28.695
again into play again because we know that
there's a big big inverse correlation

606
00:33:28.695 --> 00:33:30.695
there as well weaker dollar higher uh

607
00:33:30.695 --> 00:33:36.414
bond yields usually a higher higher gold
price so interesting one i do agree i

608
00:33:36.414 --> 00:33:38.414
would agree with your thought so one we
could maybe

609
00:33:38.414 --> 00:33:43.250
chat about again in the next few weeks and
see we certainly will but i think it's if

610
00:33:43.250 --> 00:33:45.250
i was doing anything i'd be buying um i'd
be

611
00:33:45.250 --> 00:33:49.813
buying relatively short-term puts in the
u.s bond market both the 10-year and the

612
00:33:49.813 --> 00:33:51.813
30-year that is just my

613
00:33:51.813 --> 00:33:57.109
recommendation my thoughts certainly not
that of psg wealth old oak uh let's do the

614
00:33:57.109 --> 00:33:59.109
indices indices

615
00:33:59.109 --> 00:34:03.851
yeah and value traded if you would jse all
share close to that 110 371

616
00:34:03.937 --> 00:34:08.374
points that was up 0.5 of a percentage
resources again recovered today

617
00:34:08.859 --> 00:34:15.499
2.81 percent up while industrials just
just kept itself in the red today was down

618
00:34:15.499 --> 00:34:15.527
five

619
00:34:15.562 --> 00:34:19.734
basis points uh financials after a
fantastic day yesterday day.

620
00:34:20.248 --> 00:34:24.551
They took a bit of a breather today, down
85 basis points, while the SA property

621
00:34:24.551 --> 00:34:24.591
stocks,

622
00:34:24.992 --> 00:34:27.297
they were down 0.4 of a percentage.

623
00:34:28.899 --> 00:34:32.102
Value trade in the market, not the most
active day.

624
00:34:32.141 --> 00:34:34.445
Yesterday, we had a $36 billion day.

625
00:34:34.844 --> 00:34:36.852
Today, only $23 billion.

626
00:34:37.164 --> 00:34:40.649
I'm not going to jinx this because Lindsay
and myself have been talking about this

627
00:34:40.649 --> 00:34:40.770
last year.

628
00:34:40.992 --> 00:34:42.570
We would high-five each other.

629
00:34:42.649 --> 00:34:46.399
Actually, we'll give ourselves a high 10
if we see a $23 billion day.

630
00:34:47.508 --> 00:34:48.914
Quiet a day today, but still.

631
00:34:49.317 --> 00:34:51.940
keeping itself way above the 20 billion
mark for today.

632
00:34:53.558 --> 00:34:59.444
Finally, very finally, you asked if he's
mad, you asked if he's stupid, you asked

633
00:34:59.444 --> 00:35:01.444
if he's brilliant.

634
00:35:01.444 --> 00:35:03.444
His name is Donald J.

635
00:35:03.444 --> 00:35:05.444
Trump.

636
00:35:05.444 --> 00:35:07.471
I sent you, or actually I may have not
sent it to you,

637
00:35:07.550 --> 00:35:11.229
but there's something called the Lincoln
Project, which I follow on

638
00:35:11.651 --> 00:35:15.964
X. And they came up with something that's
rather interesting,

639
00:35:15.979 --> 00:35:20.839
and that was a video of Trump with the new
Japanese Prime Minister.

640
00:35:21.385 --> 00:35:22.573
I don't know if you've seen this.

641
00:35:23.415 --> 00:35:28.300
But it says here, the Lincoln Project, I
suggest you follow them.

642
00:35:28.601 --> 00:35:31.902
They're not exactly your big friends of
Trump. They say, watch this video,

643
00:35:32.285 --> 00:35:35.910
then ask yourself why in less than one
year Trump has had two annual exams,

644
00:35:36.269 --> 00:35:41.894
taken at least one cognitive test that we
know of, been hiding large bruises on his

645
00:35:41.894 --> 00:35:42.016
hands,

646
00:35:42.207 --> 00:35:46.863
had an MRI for something last week,
exhibited facial drooping,

647
00:35:46.894 --> 00:35:52.019
has severely swollen ankles the size of
stovepipes and walks around aimless like a

648
00:35:52.019 --> 00:35:52.298
lost...

649
00:35:52.298 --> 00:35:58.360
blind dog you see this video and he's he's
being escorted to inspect some japanese

650
00:35:58.360 --> 00:36:00.360
troops

651
00:36:00.360 --> 00:36:05.809
and she stops and he carries on walking
and he's walking from side to side he

652
00:36:05.809 --> 00:36:07.809
salutes and then

653
00:36:07.809 --> 00:36:12.661
wanders off and she sort of looks at him
and and you know puts her hands out and

654
00:36:12.661 --> 00:36:14.661
says where where has

655
00:36:14.661 --> 00:36:19.661
he gone where is he going he just wanders
off it's very very it's it's it's funny

656
00:36:19.661 --> 00:36:21.661
but it's sad in the

657
00:36:21.661 --> 00:36:23.661
same way.

658
00:36:23.661 --> 00:36:25.661
Because his pills have worn off, you see.

659
00:36:25.661 --> 00:36:27.661
It's really bad.

660
00:36:27.661 --> 00:36:29.661
I'll send it to you.

661
00:36:29.661 --> 00:36:31.661
Please do.

662
00:36:31.661 --> 00:36:33.661
The Lincoln Project on X.

663
00:36:33.661 --> 00:36:34.004
Skullclaw is a portfolio manager at PSG
Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town.

664
00:36:34.106 --> 00:36:37.997
And that was a very long five o'clock, but
very enjoyable five o'clock shadow.

665
00:36:39.668 --> 00:36:46.637
The views and opinions expressed in these
podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and

666
00:36:46.637 --> 00:36:48.637
various contributors and do not reflect
the policy,

667
00:36:48.637 --> 00:36:50.637
position.

668
00:36:50.637 --> 00:36:51.129
or opinion of any other agency,
organization, employer,

669
00:36:51.470 --> 00:36:55.312
or company associated with
StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.

670
00:36:55.793 --> 00:37:02.761
Assumptions made on the analyses are not
reflective of the position of any other

671
00:37:02.761 --> 00:37:04.761
entity other than the speaker or the
author.

672
00:37:04.761 --> 00:37:08.941
And since we are critically thinking human
beings, these views are always subject to

673
00:37:08.941 --> 00:37:10.941
change, revision,

674
00:37:10.941 --> 00:37:11.082
and rethinking at any time.

675
00:37:11.394 --> 00:37:13.785
Please do not hold us to them in
perpetuity.
